Ken Rosenthal: Twins Trying to Sign Buxton Long Term

[Major League Ready]

30 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

In my opinion, history strongly suggests otherwise. In this particular case, the question is who leaked the information an why? The second question is why would anyone rationally think that he would accept a 70 million extension (even if over 4 years)?

1. He will get far more on the open market... a minimum of 100 million over 4-5 years (again, it is not about if you agree with it, it is about if a team will pay him. and THEY WILL). The Twins know this....and all the GMs know this....and Buxton's agent knows this... So, the offer is 10s of millions low.....ergo it is a low ball offer

2. Buxton is not happy with the Twins about service time manipulation or how they developed him (see past quote where he said that he was no longer accepting advice on his swing from the organization and 'listening to himself'..... ouch... So not only will the Twins not receive a home town discount... they would have to exceed other offers which is not going to happen.

Buxton is gone, the only question is when and with what return.

I don't like it one bit (he's a transformational talent, but he is gone (100%).... feel free to save this post and club me over the head with it if I'm wrong

 

For what it's worth ... I was listening to MLB radio / Dan Duquette shortly after the story broke.  Of course, he did not know the number of years either but he did say (paraphrasing) that Buxton was nuts if he did not accept an offer with a $70M guarantee, especially if the escalators were as significant as suggested.  He was quite animated in citing Buxton's injury history and the fact that he does not have a long track record of performing anywhere near his numbers this year.  Obviously, he has had multiple GM jobs so his opinion has some credibility.  Will another team go "a minimum of 100 million over 4-5 years" as you suggest?

IDK but I don't think any of us can speak intelligently to that point today.  His health and performance over the next year and a half are going to have significant influence on what he gets if he rejects the Twins offer.  Perhaps the takeaway here is that at least one industry exec / insider feels a $70M guarantee at this time is a quality offer.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

39 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'd honestly like an independent source to go out on a limb and give a Buxton free agent contract estimate right now, but that's not going to happen since Buxton isn't going to be a free agent next year. Twins fans are not remotely objective on the issue. There's so much invested in it.

When it comes to Aaron Hicks' contract, I think other teams across MLB are looking more at comparable durability than the AAV in terms of how it relates to Buxton. Even so, to be blunt, Hicks and Buxton are pretty comparable in terms of WAR production since Buxton arrived in 2015. Is a healthy Buxton dramatically superior to a healthy Hicks? Probably not. Buxton gets you an extra 1.5 WAR in defensive value in a full season and that's about it, and that's how I'd look at things from a GM perspective.

No one is estimating a Buxton contract because it’s impossible right now. The difference between Buxton being healthy or not during August and September could be worth an extra $25m+ if he was a free agent at the end of the season. 

[jmlease1]

The Hicks comp is interesting, but doesn't exactly fit: Hicks signed a big deal coming off a healthy season where he was looking like a significant cog...and then promptly spent the next three seasons injured. Their ages are relatively similar, but Buxton hasn't had the healthy season in 4 years. Buxton has been more productive per 162, but has more injury questions leading into the big contract.

There's also an interesting dichotomy on the concept of "betting on ones self": on the one hand, you can use it to say Buxton should ignore any offer from the Twins now to get a bigger deal in FA. On the other you can use it to justify taking a big incentive-laden deal right now. I mean, if Buck is certain in his ability and that he's going to have a big run of health into his 30's...then an incentive-laden deal wouldn't bother him any more than betting that he'll be healthy and produce like an MVP next year to get the big FA deal. 

It'll be interesting to see any actual terms leak or a deal gets done. I suspect that if it doesn't get done he won't get traded at the deadline because he's not healthy now and teams won't offer real value. I think you'll have as many teams offering real trade value in the offseason as ones willing to offer Buxton a huge FA deal. Just not sure which teams those are or exactly how many of them exist...

I'd love for him to stay. He's the most fun player to watch on the Twins since Puckett and his talent is remarkable. He also seems like a good dude. But this stuff is hard, especially with a player fantastic talent who has been healthy exactly once in the last 5 seasons, and that season was the first one of them.

[beckmt]

With Buxton injured (again), he will not be able to be traded until this winter.  If he wants out the Twins need to get a decent return.  I still think an overpay is the way to go.  He is very valuable.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

No one is estimating a Buxton contract because it’s impossible right now. The difference between Buxton being healthy or not during August and September could be worth an extra $25m+ if he was a free agent at the end of the season. 

Certainly tough to estimate. I don't think him being healthy for a month or two makes a significant difference, TBH.

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

...Buxton has been more productive per 162...

 

A little open to debate on just how much, actually. When the Yankees signed Hicks, he was coming off a 7.2 bWAR and 5.2 bWAR per 162 seasons. Buxton was at 5.6 bWAR and 8.7 bWAR in 2019-2020.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Certainly tough to estimate. I don't think him being healthy for a month or two makes a significant difference, TBH.

A little open to debate on just how much, actually. When the Yankees signed Hicks, he was coming off a 7.2 bWAR and 5.2 bWAR per 162 seasons. Buxton was at 5.6 bWAR and 8.7 bWAR in 2019-2020.

Oh, I think closing out the season heathy would make a huge impact. There’s a big difference between a player having half a season with four wins and a quarter season with two and a half wins. Buxton’s hitting ability has been on the rise but he stepped it to an entirely new level early this season. Coming back and doing it some more would instill confidence that’s his hitting ability going forward. 

[beckmt]

From what I am seeing and not hearing, I believe the front office has decided Berrios is out of their price range (probably wants ace or close to ace money).  That is why you are hearing all the rumors there.  The FO also seems to feel that relievers are hit and miss so spending big money on them is not wise.  I now expect to see Berrios and maybe Rogers gone in the next two weeks.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, beckmt said:

From what I am seeing and not hearing, I believe the front office has decided Berrios is out of their price range (probably wants ace or close to ace money).  That is why you are hearing all the rumors there.  The FO also seems to feel that relievers are hit and miss so spending big money on them is not wise.  I now expect to see Berrios and maybe Rogers gone in the next two weeks.

I've read pretty much nothing about Berrios and the Twins' contract negotiations. It doesn't even sound like they got too invested in extension discussions earlier this spring. It wouldn't surprise me if the Twins are a little skittish of negotiating any huge contracts before the 2022 CBA and that's the reason we're not seeing a lot of extension discussion in regard to Berrios.

[bean5302]

It's also worth noting the Twins signed Morneau, Cuddyer and Nathan to extensions immediately after deciding to trade Santana after being unable to come to an agreement with Johan on an extension. The Twins may be trying to get the Buxton situation in order before looking at Berrios.

[RickOShea]

I wouldn't count on any 'hometown discount' from Buxton.  The extra year of service he had to go through, may make him feel he is owed.  And with all the injuries he has incurred, he may feel this upcoming contract could be one, if not his last.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

On 7/16/2021 at 8:16 PM, Dman said:

Buxton is already on the record stating he would prefer to only play for one team his whole career and that money isn't the most important factor to him. 

If this is the case, i certainly hope we grab the Mauer sized pen to make something happen.

 

I do feel that how we deal with Maeda's contract has some baring on if we can negotiate incentives laden contract in good faith.  And yeah, i wouldn't be surprised if there is still a sour taste in Bixton's mouth over how 2018 played out.

I also think that Rocco as manager could go a ways to helping make this work.

 

Otherwise, i am grateful for the report, but won't conclude it means anything is going to happen. The caution that keeps us from the Mauer sized offer likely will also keep other teams from meeting our ask in a trade. And yeah, who knows how the collective bargaining will play out?

[jaimedude]

Buxton seems to think he is worth a lot more than he has proven. Hard to continue to invest in his talent when he is never healthy enough here to play every day. If I'm the Twins I'm trading Buxton. 

[Original_JB]

On 7/16/2021 at 11:30 AM, Dodecahedron said:

I think it's worse than this.  The article says if he doesn't take this deal, he is gone, and gone right now.

This is a threat from the team, directed at Buxton, and funneled through mass media.  Very low class.

Rosenthal is a slimeball for playing this game on the side of the Twins, and Buxton is too smart to say yes when threatened in this way.

On the bright side, when Buxton is traded, Buxton Twins gear will be very cheap.  Don't buy anything now!

This is where I wish there were an "I agree with this post, and I am upset about it (the content) too" EMOJI