Ken Rosenthal: Twins Trying to Sign Buxton Long Term

[howeda7]

2 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

I don't think Buxton or Berrios want to play for a team like the Twins.  They can barely make the play-offs (wild card doesn't count) and when they do they don't have what it takes to win.  Both of these players want more than playing on a depressing team like this has been for the last 20 years.  No play-off wins since when?  They will both get good money and as part of their contracts add a no trade clause to this pathetic organization.  I don't know how many of the good players have MN as a no trade team but I bet the list is long.  I doubt the Pohlad's ever wanted to or planned to pay them this will at least make it look like they tried but most of us know better.

There's no such thing as "barely" making the play-offs. The Twins have made 9 times this century. 8 of them by winning their division. The lack of play-off wins is pathetic, yes, but don't exaggerate.

[howeda7]

Keeping guys like Buxton and Berrios is why the Twins needed Target Field. If Joe Mauer is the only significant highly paid player they're ever going to be willing to keep long-term, then that is pathetic.

[Vanimal46]

11 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I didn't realize that alone explained the hundreds of games he has missed since we drafted him.

Yeah, some of the injuries might just be terrible luck.  Some weren't.  Some were sliding.  Or running.  Or catching the ball.  Not bad luck, hurt during routine baseball activities.  Over and over and over again.

The crazy thing with all of his injuries… Only the concussion issues have lingered over the years. The rest have been one off injuries to different parts of his body. 

2015: Sprained left thumb, 46 GP

2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92 GP 

2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 GP

2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 GP

2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 GP

2020: Concussion symptoms, left shoulder injury, sprained left-foot, 39 GP

2021: Hip injury/broken wrist

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

The crazy thing with all of his injuries… Only the concussion issues have lingered over the years. The rest have been one off injuries to different parts of his body. 

2015: Sprained left thumb, 46 GP

2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92 GP 

2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 GP

2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 GP

2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 GP

2020: Concussion symptoms, left shoulder injury, sprained left-foot, 39 GP

2021: Hip injury/broken wrist

You don't have to keep having the same part of your body getting hurt to be injury prone.  Some people are just more durable than others.  It's not his fault.  He's not doing anything wrong necessarily.  But you don't have a list like that and look forward to a pristine career in your 30s of picture perfect health.

[Danchat]

6 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Keeping guys like Buxton and Berrios is why the Twins needed Target Field. If Joe Mauer is the only significant highly paid player they're ever going to be willing to keep long-term, then that is pathetic.

Since Target Field opened, what player did we lose signed a big deal elsewhere that we couldn't afford? I can't even think of one. 

And shouldn't it be more about total payroll rather than by player? I have a hard time wrapping my head around giving big money to a guy who will only play about 40% of the games every year rather than committing that money to the next Yu Darvish/Zach Wheeler/George Springer/other options on the market. 

[howeda7]

1 minute ago, Danchat said:

Since Target Field opened, what player did we lose signed a big deal elsewhere that we couldn't afford? I can't even think of one. 

And shouldn't it be more about total payroll rather than by player? I have a hard time wrapping my head around giving big money to a guy who will only play about 40% of the games every year rather than committing that money to the next Yu Darvish/Zach Wheeler/George Springer/other options on the market. 

Cuddyer is marginal I suppose and we don't know whether they could/would have kept a healthy Morneau. But that speaks more to the lack of talent since 2010 than anything.

It is total payroll, yes. But if they were to trade Berrios and Buxton before next season, they'd have about an $80 million payroll. And that's with Donaldson and Sano making up $33 million of it. They can afford a payroll of $135-145 million. Who exactly are they going to spend big on in 2022 and beyond?

They don't exactly have a track record with big $ to outside free agents, save Donaldson. So keeping Berrios and Buxton seems like a no-brainer. I understand there's risk with both, but that's life.

 

 

[Squirrel]

45 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The crazy thing with all of his injuries… Only the concussion issues have lingered over the years. The rest have been one off injuries to different parts of his body. 

2015: Sprained left thumb, 46 GP

2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92 GP 

2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 GP

2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 GP

2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 GP

2020: Concussion symptoms, left shoulder injury, sprained left-foot, 39 GP

2021: Hip injury/broken wrist

That is quite a list when you spell it out like that. Yikes.

Btw, the migraines are concussion related.

[lukeduke1980]

I wonder if part of this is we'll sign Buxton or Berrios but can't do both.  First one signed is the keeper-  but I think that will be Berrios.

[Doctor Evil]

I vote we trade Buxton and not extend him. I can't take any more of this constant unavailability. We play so many games with our 4th outfielder starting. Someone earlier in this thread commented about it not doing you any good to have a fancy car if you can't drive it. I agree. I've seen enough.

[Thiéres Rabelo]

If you haven't done it yet, make sure to vote on the poll we created on our Twitter account: 

 

[Dman]

4 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

I don't think Buxton or Berrios want to play for a team like the Twins.  They can barely make the play-offs (wild card doesn't count) and when they do they don't have what it takes to win.  Both of these players want more than playing on a depressing team like this has been for the last 20 years.  No play-off wins since when?  They will both get good money and as part of their contracts add a no trade clause to this pathetic organization.  I don't know how many of the good players have MN as a no trade team but I bet the list is long.  I doubt the Pohlad's ever wanted to or planned to pay them this will at least make it look like they tried but most of us know better.

Buxton is already on the record stating he would prefer to only play for one team his whole career and that money isn't the most important factor to him.  Berrios has never ruled out an extension but hasn't felt the Twins have come up with an offer that is acceptable just yet.  He has always been positive about getting a deal done and has never said he wants out of Minnesota.

Honestly I think for most players they just want to play the game.  They generally want to stay with the organization they grew up in.   The organization where they know the coaches, grew up with the players they have played with their whole career. It is home.  It is comfortable but, they also realize it is a business.  Some players prioritize maximizing making the most money they can while they can.  Some are more risk averse willing to sign deals early to make sure they at least get one good payday and don't have to worry as much about injury.  Everybody is different.

Sure players want to win but they want to win with the guys they came up with.  They believe in each other.  Trust each other.  Have each others backs.  When it comes to the business side if the home team will offer close to what another team is offering the players usually stay.  Some will take a home town discount just to stay.

I don't think either player thinks the Twins are a depressing team and or are worried about playoff wins.  They are there to fix those issue's.  They believe in themselves and their team.  Sometimes things don't go your way in life that doesn't mean you quit it means you try harder to get better. 

Both of these players will stay if they get paid what they think they are worth on the market or close to it.  If not then they have no choice but to head to the market and see what they really are worth.  That is pretty much it end of story.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Btw, the migraines are concussion related.

I don't think it's a big issue, but just for the sake of accuracy, Buxton has had migraines since childhood. Here's an article with a quote about it. https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-byron-buxton-sidelined-with-migraines-c244651028. I'm not saying concussions couldn't have influenced the severity or frequency of migraines, but it's not something which can be directly attributed to concussions.

[Twodogs]

I really don't like all of the drama that stuff like this article causes.  That's why it's best to keep stuff behind closed doors now we get in to a he said she said situation and everyone is trying to do damage control.  "Does Buxton even want to stay?" I mean has he ever said that he doesn't??  "They lowballed him so that they look like they tried." Do we really know what was offered?  I mean half of this article is hearsay, I just don't see how an article like this helps the situation at all.  I mean it creates something that everyone can now creat banter about.  But I don't see how it helps the Twins or Buxton.

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Didn't the Twins give Donaldson a 4 year 92 million, after coming off of seasons he played - 155,16,36, 113

I believe there is team willing out there will to give Buxton that same contract, but that is just my opinion.

Donaldson's playing history included a pretty solid track record on games played.

2013 - Full season (158)

2014 - Full season (158)

2015 -  Full season (158)

2016 - Full season (155)

2017 - 113 games

2018 - 52 games

2019 - Full season (155)

In my opinion, Byron Buxton's track record on games played doesn't look much like Donaldson.

I also think it's a disservice to Donaldson's value added to compare Buxton to him in terms of how much a team might pay or expect in production. Donaldson's top 5 bWAR seasons are all higher than any season Buxton has ever had while Donaldson also collected an MVP, and was a 3x All Star.

[DocBauer]

Lots of great posts and interesting thoughts. I'm not going to get in to a debate on this, but I am most certainly going to comment. I will repeat a few other opinions/thoughts already shared by others as well as repeat a couple things I've said in another OP recently. Sue me! LOL!

1] $70M with incentives is all we know. Just a little thought and logic woukd state the deal is probably 4 or 5yrs. Makes the most sense for both parties. Buxton receives $14M per AT MINIMUM each year (based on 5yrs) and I'm willing to bet incentives would push him to the $18-20M area (Again, based on 5yrs). This deal could easily hit the $100M mark with just a little logical speculation. Assuming no opt out clauses, he hits FA again around 32-33yo. With good health, he makes a ton of $ and can still sign yet another deal. Thus he gets PAID by the Twins, gets PAID even more with the incentives, and can still get PAID yet again. This gives guaranteed $ and STILL allows him to "bet on himself".

But speculation of 7yrs and a low AAV is pointless right now.

2] I 99.9% believe any "take it or leave it or your gone" are pure speculation if not pure trolling. GM's and FO use "coach speak" all the time! They are masters, generally, of "political" comments made publicly but in a sports environment. Not only are making public mandates a poor way to negotiate, but when have you ever heard a GM announce to the world that someone is on the market and just gone when offers and negotiations are just beginning? Come on man!

3] Buck's recent comments about staying a Twin seemed honest. And I don't think we've ever heard him not speak honestly. He didn't offer up some vague "we'll just see what happens" comment. Not even close. Further, if there was any lingering drama about his lost service time a few years back, again, his recent comments wouldn't seem to indicate that there was, indeed, any lingering animosity. 

4] Buxton, and his agenency, we can easily presume are not unintelligent. Buck knows how talented he is. His reps know how talented he is. The Twins and everyone else in MLB know how talented he is. But he, his reps, the Twins, and everyone else also know his history. So NOBODY is blind or uninformed or unintelligent concerning his ability or his career history at this point.

Again, NOT knowing all the terms and potential of this offer, there doesn't seem to be anything "insulting" or "low ball" with this offer. There is speculation Byron may just want to bet on himself. Fine. He can take a GUARANTEED $70M and bet on himself to make even more with the incentives and look for yet another deal in his early 30's, as previously mentioned, OR, he COULD take 2022 to bet on 120+ games played and hit the market hoping for a larger deal. Betting on himself is NOT a one-way street here folks! 

It is completely unfair and non-productive to pretend to be in Buxton's shoes, or those of his reps and family, and try to speculate on a decision. But I can tell you, not as a Twins fan but as an adult, as a father, as someone who is just smart enough to look at the big picture of things, if your words about staying with the Twins ring true, TAKE the guaranteed $ while STILL betting on yourself and the extra $ to be earned and ANOTHER potentially at least decent deal in your early 30's. 

Betting on yourself and believing in yourself is good. Hoping and betting that everything just coalesces in ONE YEAR to offer up an even bigger payday...how much better?....just might not be worth the gamble.

It's up to him to decide, of course.

5] I want Buck to stay. The Twins are ALSO betting on him, Do we just forget that? I want lady luck to smile on him and he suddenly gets healthy, stays healthy, doesn't have more freak injuries, etc, and can be the very best be can be. But just playing devil's advocate, at some point, you also have to look at the cards on the table and decide you've pushed enough in to the pot that you just can't risk any more. 

I hope we don't get to that point.

[TheLeviathan]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Donaldson's playing history included a pretty solid track record on games played.

2013 - Full season (158)

2014 - Full season (158)

2015 -  Full season (158)

2016 - Full season (155)

2017 - 113 games

2018 - 52 games

2019 - Full season (155)

In my opinion, Byron Buxton's track record on games played doesn't look much like Donaldson.

I also think it's a disservice to Donaldson's value added to compare Buxton to him in terms of how much a team might pay or expect in production. Donaldson's top 5 bWAR seasons are all higher than any season Buxton has ever had while Donaldson also collected an MVP, and was a 3x All Star.

Excellent post.  And despite all of those advantages for Donaldson.....he still had to wait out a 4 year deal.  I don't think people really have context for just how unreliable Buxton is or how risky an investment he is.  We see the awesome dude with the awesome skillset who was an awesome prospect for us who really impacts the team.  But we aren't seeing the fact that he's 27, he has literally missed hundreds and hundreds of games, and his best skills are the ones most likely to erode the fastest by all historical comps.

GMs have to be sober in their decisions.

[D.C Twins]

12 hours ago, Unwinder said:

Based on previous conversations on here about extending Buck, I find it hard to believe that this is even a good-faith offer rather than a formality to appease fans into thinking they tried.

 

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This. Classic leak from a team. Like the twins being in on every Cuban under previous front offices . This is cover.

These two quotes are all that need to be said.  I'm going to break a story* and tell you that Buxton's camp already rejected that "offer" and said "yes please do trade me as soon as possible...It will be hard but eventually I'll get over our special relationship where you skewed with my service time and my swing"

* I have no sources....I just have logic and follow the news

[terrydactyls]

9 hours ago, Irishman said:

If Twins trade Buxton, then I am done.  

No one in the front office probably cares.

[terrydactyls]

7 hours ago, SoDakTwinsFan4 said:

I love Buxton but unless he changes the way he plays he will continue to get injured. And even then he gets hurt too easily. He can do great things, but his body isn't made for this in MY OPINION. Poor guy is just very very prone to injuries 

He needs to stop being hit in the hand while batting?  Or does he need to stop getting migraines?

[terrydactyls]

In my rapidly failing system of brain cells, signing a contract with a lot of incentives is the definition of "betting on yourself."   Signing a guaranteed money contract is not betting on yourself but rather letting someone else bet on you.  It's not a bet if there isn't a risk.

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

23 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

He needs to stop being hit in the hand while batting?  Or does he need to stop getting migraines?

Hamstring? Whatever, either way it's no good

[Smithb02]

Sign him! We haven't even seen Buck's ceiling yet! If the Twins trade him, I'm sure Buck will play 156 games for his new team while the Twins get a couple mediocre prospects.

[Nashvilletwin]

First time post. Long, long time Twins fan.

Re Buxton, 5/70 plus $2mm for every 10 games played above 100. So that’s $100MM over 5 years if 130 games played/year, with the chance to go to $26MM in any year he plays 160 games. Add in $2MM for MVP, $500k for top 2/3, $250k for top 4/5, and $500k for All Star starter, $250k for sub. 
 

This is a fair deal to both sides. Twins take injury risk up to $14MM/year. If Buxton plays 50-100 games/year, he is well worth that.  Twins pay up for Buxton being on the field. Buxton gets his $100MM deal if he plays 81% of the games each year. 
 

Buxton should be a priority. He is a potential game changer every time he plays. 

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, Twodogs said:

I really don't like all of the drama that stuff like this article causes.  That's why it's best to keep stuff behind closed doors now we get in to a he said she said situation and everyone is trying to do damage control.  "Does Buxton even want to stay?" I mean has he ever said that he doesn't??  "They lowballed him so that they look like they tried." Do we really know what was offered?  I mean half of this article is hearsay, I just don't see how an article like this helps the situation at all.  I mean it creates something that everyone can now create banter about.  But I don't see how it helps the Twins or Buxton.

I don't see the article as being a problem.  I think we all want to know the Twins are trying to put together a deal with Buxton.  The problem is people drawing conclusions based on nothing but completely unsupported assumption.  We don't know if the offer was 3/7 or 7/70.  We also don't know any details regarding the bonus parameters so why would anyone have an opinion on quality of the offer.  For all we know, Buxton's agents and the Twins FO have been involved in a very cooperative collaboration trying to come up with terms both sides can live with.  So, I just don't think this article poses any problem if approached with even a modest degree of reason.  .

[wabene]

10 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

 

These two quotes are all that need to be said.  I'm going to break a story* and tell you that Buxton's camp already rejected that "offer" and said "yes please do trade me as soon as possible...It will be hard but eventually I'll get over our special relationship where you skewed with my service time and my swing"

* I have no sources....I just have logic and follow the news

I would say these two quotes need to be ignored. The Twins making low ball offers to save face is baloney.

[ashbury]

15 hours ago, Thiéres Rabelo said:

If you haven't done it yet, make sure to vote on the poll we created on our Twitter account: 

 

Yes.

[nicksaviking]

The chances that Buxton’s health issues correct themselves and he becomes a superstar > than the chances the Twins sign a superstar free agent. 
 

And no chance the base offer is 7 years. Not only is it a no brainer rejection from Buxton, but there’s no chance the Twins want to guarantee 7 years to him at this time. There’s probably incentives for games played and then option years of some kind.

[Dan In Real Life]

The FO is in a very tough position. These are clearly not the "cheap Twins" of the past. There are only a handful of teams willing and able to pay someone $30M+ per year over more than 3 years. The Twins not being one of those teams doesn't make them cheap. 

The article doesn't give any details at all, other than an offer is being made, and they are seriously considering trading Buxton now or in the off season if they can't work out a deal. The only truly newsworthy point is that the Twins are negotiating during the season, which they NEVER do. Everything else is speculation and analysis. 

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

I would say these two quotes need to be ignored. The Twins making low ball offers to save face is baloney.

In my opinion, history strongly suggests otherwise. In this particular case, the question is who leaked the information an why? The second question is why would anyone rationally think that he would accept a 70 million extension (even if over 4 years)?

1. He will get far more on the open market... a minimum of 100 million over 4-5 years (again, it is not about if you agree with it, it is about if a team will pay him. and THEY WILL). The Twins know this....and all the GMs know this....and Buxton's agent knows this... So, the offer is 10s of millions low.....ergo it is a low ball offer

2. Buxton is not happy with the Twins about service time manipulation or how they developed him (see past quote where he said that he was no longer accepting advice on his swing from the organization and 'listening to himself'..... ouch... So not only will the Twins not receive a home town discount... they would have to exceed other offers which is not going to happen.

Buxton is gone, the only question is when and with what return.

I don't like it one bit (he's a transformational talent, but he is gone (100%).... feel free to save this post and club me over the head with it if I'm wrong

 

[bean5302]

I'd honestly like an independent source to go out on a limb and give a Buxton free agent contract estimate right now, but that's not going to happen since Buxton isn't going to be a free agent next year. Twins fans are not remotely objective on the issue. There's so much invested in it.

When it comes to Aaron Hicks' contract, I think other teams across MLB are looking more at comparable durability than the AAV in terms of how it relates to Buxton. Even so, to be blunt, Hicks and Buxton are pretty comparable in terms of WAR production since Buxton arrived in 2015. Is a healthy Buxton dramatically superior to a healthy Hicks? Probably not. Buxton gets you an extra 1.5 WAR in defensive value in a full season and that's about it, and that's how I'd look at things from a GM perspective.