Ken Rosenthal: Twins Trying to Sign Buxton Long Term

[Brock Beauchamp]

@Dodecahedron @chpettit19 Please stop sniping at each other and argue the points you wish to make.

[jorgenswest]

Many of you must be reading a different report than I saw. I saw no reports of final offers, gauntlets, ultimatums or certain trades.

I read that they are negotiating with him and made an offer in excess of 70 million. It is good news to me that they are negotiating. It is also good news to me that the Twins will consider trading him if Buxton chooses to bet on himself having a big healthy year next year leading to a massive contract.

[MABB1959]

I don't think Buxton or Berrios want to play for a team like the Twins.  They can barely make the play-offs (wild card doesn't count) and when they do they don't have what it takes to win.  Both of these players want more than playing on a depressing team like this has been for the last 20 years.  No play-off wins since when?  They will both get good money and as part of their contracts add a no trade clause to this pathetic organization.  I don't know how many of the good players have MN as a no trade team but I bet the list is long.  I doubt the Pohlad's ever wanted to or planned to pay them this will at least make it look like they tried but most of us know better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, jorgenswest said:

Many of you must be reading a different report than I saw. I saw no reports of final offers, gauntlets, ultimatums or certain trades.

Yeah, well I heard:

[Battle ur tail off]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Is that new information? Are there any teams out there that aren't trying to "win" the trades they make? Is it new information that the Twins are better off trading Buxton before next year if they can't extend him? This is all common knowledge that has been discussed by random people on Twinsdaily.com for months. If there are 2 teams interested in him you can use them to push the package higher and higher. So I stick with you're contradicting yourself. If there's multiple teams willing to pay him big money there's multiple teams willing to trade for him. Red Sox traded Mookie before he left for nothing and he still got paid. Same with Lindor. Those teams willing to spend big on him would love to get him in their organization before he's a free agent to sign him before he hits the market. As long as there's more than 1 team interested in him they can drive the price up. Doesn't mean it'll be something crazy or the FO won't screw it up, but your argument that suddenly teams know the Twins are open to trading Buxton and now the team is screwed makes no sense. You think the team would be saying "no, we're not trading him" and other teams would suddenly throw their top 5 prospects at them out of nowhere? 

No, it's not new information. That is why when fans fall for reports like this, they are gullible. This is just another "we tried" piece and anyone that has been around for long enough knows it.  

The offer for Buxton will be one top 100 prospect + filler garbage. Take that to the bank. Everyone knows the Twins won't pay him what the market says he is worth. Why would anyone give up a top 15 in baseball type prospect AND have to pay the man when they can just wait another year and keep that top 15 guy?

You saw this exact thing with Santana. What did we get for the best pitcher in Twins history? Almost nothing. Not one prospect that was in the top 20 in any lists and a whole pile of steaming garbage. The return will likely be equal to or less this for yet another top player that the whole league knows this organization has no real intention of signing... 

[Dman]

51 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is what I’m thinking. A deal that pays Byron a lot but gets him back to free agency relatively young. 

Yeah that is my thinking as well.  If he is the player he thinks he is then after 4 years he can still sign another big contract.  If his hit tool stays good be can still play a long time even if he ages out of center.

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

No, it's not new information. That is why when fans fall for reports like this, they are gullible. This is just another "we tried" piece and anyone that has been around for long enough knows it.  

The offer for Buxton will be one top 100 prospect + filler garbage. Take that to the bank. Everyone knows the Twins won't pay him what the market says he is worth. Why would anyone give up a top 15 in baseball type prospect AND have to pay the man when they can just wait another year and keep that top 15 guy?

You saw this exact thing with Santana. What did we get for the best pitcher in Twins history? Almost nothing. Not one prospect that was in the top 20 in any lists and a whole pile of steaming garbage. The return will likely be equal to or less this for yet another top player that the whole league knows this organization has no real intention of signing... 

Well the report provides almost no information on the Twins offer beyond it being higher than 70 mil. So hard to say whether it's a reasonable deal or not. Also super hard to judge what his market value is. Is he one of the top players in baseball skill wise? Yes. Has he played 100 games in more than 1 season? No. It may certainly be a "we tried" piece.

My point is that you seem to be saying the Twins won't get anything good in return because the league knows they won't keep him. Him being on the block (the Twins willing to talk to the teams about trading him) already tells those teams they're not planning on keeping him. The reason a team trades for him is so they can extend him before he hits the market. You risk giving up a top 15 guy so you don't risk him choosing to sign with someone or having that team run up the financial commitment. 

The Red Sox made it known Betts wasn't going to be extended and he was available for trade to the highest bidder. The Indians made it known Lindor wasn't going to be extended and he was available for trade to the highest bidder. Both those guys were traded for big returns and also got paid huge extensions immediately. Buxton is a vastly more difficult case due to his injury history, but the narrative that the Twins making it known he'll be traded if they can't sign him is killing his value on the trade market just doesn't seem to have any basis in reality based on the last 2 seasons where the exact same thing happened with 2 other players of his skill level.

[Mike Sixel]

If they deal him, they'll get a good to great haul of prospects. That doesn't mean they'll work out, just that they'll get plenty. I remain hopeful they sign him for 3-4 years. 

[Dman]

16 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

No, it's not new information. That is why when fans fall for reports like this, they are gullible. This is just another "we tried" piece and anyone that has been around for long enough knows it.  

The offer for Buxton will be one top 100 prospect + filler garbage. Take that to the bank. Everyone knows the Twins won't pay him what the market says he is worth. Why would anyone give up a top 15 in baseball type prospect AND have to pay the man when they can just wait another year and keep that top 15 guy?

You saw this exact thing with Santana. What did we get for the best pitcher in Twins history? Almost nothing. Not one prospect that was in the top 20 in any lists and a whole pile of steaming garbage. The return will likely be equal to or less this for yet another top player that the whole league knows this organization has no real intention of signing... 

If they don't sign him I would think a return slightly under the Betts and Lindor deals would be what we can expect.  Unless traded at the deadline which seems unlikely he would only have one year left so there is only so much you can expect to get for one year of a player.  

As for top 100 prospects they are nice to get with a greater chance to succeed but Duran wasn't a top 100 prospect in the Escobar trade and now he is top 2 or 3 in the Twins system.  Sometimes trades work out, sometimes they don't that is the risk taken when trading.  Bostons trade seems to be working out OK for them.  I don't see why we can't get a similar result.

[gunnarthor]

Buxton should absolutely bet on himself. He's already made nearly 20m + whatever his UnderArmour and other sources of income have given him. Unless he's horrible with money, he's set for life. He'll get a big raise next year, regardless of anything, so it's really 70 - final arb year. Plus he's probably still steamed at the Twins from the extra year of control. No reason for him to think he should give a discount.

Over his career, he's shown he's a 5 WAR player per/162 games. And he's an explosive, entertaining player at a premium position. Someone will give him a better offer in free agency.

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Buxton should absolutely bet on himself. He's already made nearly 20m + whatever his UnderArmour and other sources of income have given him. Unless he's horrible with money, he's set for life. He'll get a big raise next year, regardless of anything, so it's really 70 - final arb year. Plus he's probably still steamed at the Twins from the extra year of control. No reason for him to think he should give a discount.

Over his career, he's shown he's a 5 WAR player per/162 games. And he's an explosive, entertaining player at a premium position. Someone will give him a better offer in free agency.

Lots of guys should have bet on themselves. Acuna should have bet on himself, Ooops he just got injured.  Has to be nice to know he is covered no matter what happens in his recovery.  It all depends on how you want to look at it I guess.  If he likes being in Minnesota and playing with the guys he came up with and the Twins offer is in the ballpark why not take it?  If he never plays another game or gets too many concussions he is covered and guaranteed that money.  Only he can decide but I don't always think betting on yourself is as easy as we think it is.

[KirbyDome89]

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

mike sixel
3:17    Buxton: traded in the next 12 months, or signed to stay in MN? How about Berrios?
Keith Law
3:18    I'd guess they sign Buxton and trade Berrios. Buxton might give them some discount given how often he's been hurt. I can't see them going 5 years on Berrios, but he could get that in free agency

 

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they deal him, they'll get a good to great haul of prospects. That doesn't mean they'll work out, just that they'll get plenty. I remain hopeful they sign him for 3-4 years. 

It's hard to imagine Buxton giving this team an inch after the debacle in 2018 but maybe that fence has been mended. I agree, I'd prefer a signing to prospects right now. I'm not sure what that would mean for Berrios, but...

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, Dman said:

If they don't sign him I would think a return slightly under the Betts and Lindor deals would be what we can expect.  Unless traded at the deadline which seems unlikely he would only have one year left so there is only so much you can expect to get for one year of a player.  

As for top 100 prospects they are nice to get with a greater chance to succeed but Duran wasn't a top 100 prospect in the Escobar trade and now he top 2 or 3 in the Twins system.  Sometimes trades work out, sometimes they don't that is risk taken when trading.  Bostons trade seems to be working out OK for them.  I don't see why we can't get a similar result.

Boston got -

Position, team, average, OBP, SLG, OPS
Alex Verdugo (OF) BOS - .278,.346,.425
Jeter Downs (SS) AAA -.220,.293,.356, .649
Connor Wong (C) BOS - .273,.273,.364

I am not saying the won or lost the trade, so far it looks like the got a Larnach or Kirilloff in Verdugo, something like Lewis in Downs, and Wong is similiar to Jeffers.

I would say that Buxton is not as good as Betts, but maybe better if healthy, so I would expect a team to pay less than that.

IMO, I think something like Downs (pretty highly regarded prospect but not living up to the hype, yet) and Wong (a older solid prospect that seems destine to make the majors, maybe not but great but a solid player) is what I would expect the Twins to get for him,

To be clear I want them to sign him, but if they can get two prospects that will be Twins regulars by 2023, I wouldn't hate it. (I guess this means they would probably need some time in the majors in 2022)

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

What do you do with a Ferrari that you can never drive due to mechanical problems? You sell it and cut your losses. It's time to say goodbye 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, SoDakTwinsFan4 said:

What do you do with a Ferrari that you can never drive due to mechanical problems? You sell it and cut your losses. It's time to say goodbye 

We don't know if he'll be hurt from here on out......if teams think that, then the Twins won't get much for him at all......I mean, this is what people said about Robert Smith of the Vikings, good thing they didn't cut bait.

[TwinsDr2021]

34 minutes ago, Dman said:

As for top 100 prospects they are nice to get with a greater chance to succeed but Duran wasn't a top 100 prospect in the Escobar trade and now he top 2 or 3 in the Twins system.  Sometimes trades work out, sometimes they don't that is risk taken when trading.  Bostons trade seems to be working out OK for them.  I don't see why we can't get a similar result.

Not trying to argue, but this is the 4th (actually 3+) season Duran has been in the Twins organization and hasn't helped the Twins yet. IMO trading Buxton and/or Berrios for players the fans won't see for 3-4-5 years is not a winning combination, it absolutely might be the right thing to do to compete is 2025 and beyond, but removing two of the most popular players for that far away will not sit well with the fans and probably re-enforce that they are just cheap arses.

I will say this; IMO he is a top Twins prospect because he has a huge arm, but it really hasn't translated to success yet, having a career minor league ERA 3.99 doesn't scream Ace, I hope (fingers and toes crossed) he gets healthy, rehabs in AAA, comes up later this year and proves that big arm translates to success in the majors, then next year forces the twin to give him a starting spot.

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

We don't know if he'll be hurt from here on out......if teams think that, then the Twins won't get much for him at all......I mean, this is what people said about Robert Smith of the Vikings, good thing they didn't cut bait.

I love Buxton but unless he changes the way he plays he will continue to get injured. And even then he gets hurt too easily. He can do great things, but his body isn't made for this in MY OPINION. Poor guy is just very very prone to injuries 

[Dman]

15 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Boston got -

Position, team, average, OBP, SLG, OPS
Alex Verdugo (OF) BOS - .278,.346,.425
Jeter Downs (SS) AAA -.220,.293,.356, .649
Connor Wong (C) BOS - .273,.273,.364

I am not saying the won or lost the trade, so far it looks like the got a Larnach or Kirilloff in Verdugo, something like Lewis in Downs, and Wong is similiar to Jeffers.

I would say that Buxton is not as good as Betts, but maybe better if healthy, so I would expect a team to pay less than that.

IMO, I think something like Downs (pretty highly regarded prospect but not living up to the hype, yet) and Wong (a older solid prospect that seems destine to make the majors, maybe not but great but a solid player) is what I would expect the Twins to get for him,

To be clear I want them to sign him, but if they can get two prospects that will be Twins regulars by 2023, I wouldn't hate it. (I guess this means they would probably need some time in the majors in 2022)

Yeah the return won't likely be as good as Betts.  Probably one big headliner and then some lottery tickets thrown in.  The injury history is going to hurt the return so I think you are right about that.

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not trying to argue, but this is the 4th (actually 3+) season Duran has been in the Twins organization and hasn't helped the Twins yet. IMO trading Buxton and/or Berrios for players the fans won't see for 3-4-5 years is not a winning combination, it absolutely might be the right thing to do to compete is 2025 and beyond, but removing two of the most popular players for that far away will not sit well with the fans and probably re-enforce that they are just cheap arses.

I will say this; IMO he is a top Twins prospect because he has a huge arm, but it really hasn't translated to success yet, having a career minor league ERA 3.99 doesn't scream Ace, I hope (fingers and toes crossed) he gets healthy, rehabs in AAA, comes up later this year and proves that big arm translates to success in the majors, then next year forces the twin to give him a starting spot.

I don't disagree with you.  Honestly he looks like a reliever to me not starter.  Should\could be elite as a reliever though.  Pitcher timelines are generally tougher than hitters because arm injuries can set them back so far.  So yeah it is taking longer than we would like but Covid is playing a role in timelines as these guys couldn't play for a year so keep that in mind.  

I think Falvey mentioned this but teams don't like to trade talent at AA and beyond easily but will add players that are further away.  Whatever we get we will most likely have to wait before they help unless the FO works a trade using some of these pieces in the offseason.

They just have to look for the most value another team is willing to give.  The best deal is the best deal even if they don't like it they might have to take it.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

I think it's worse than this.  The article says if he doesn't take this deal, he is gone, and gone right now.

This is a threat from the team, directed at Buxton, and funneled through mass media.  Very low class.

Rosenthal is a slimeball for playing this game on the side of the Twins, and Buxton is too smart to say yes when threatened in this way.

On the bright side, when Buxton is traded, Buxton Twins gear will be very cheap.  Don't buy anything now!

There is nothing worse than someone with NO ACTUAL knowledge disparaging respected people like Rosenthal.  He is about as informed as it gets and you ASSUME to have all the answers.  It's ironic you are calling others a slimeball while dealing out this kind of slimy insult based on assumption.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

There is nothing worse than someone with NO ACTUAL knowledge disparaging respected people like Rosenthal.  He is about as informed as it gets and you ASSUME to have all the answers.  It's ironic you are calling others a slimeball while dealing out this kind of slimy insult based on assumption.

Never could figure out why anyone thinks spreading negativity is a good idea.  Of course, it requires none of the skill or wisdom it takes to come up with finding solutions.  The solutions are also much more interesting to discuss.

[Rosterman]

I'm sure offers will be entertained before the trading deadline, but BUXTON remains injured right now. It is all in Buxton's favor. Twins can trade him in the off-season, but no team will pay big unless they know they can sign him, and what does another team at this point, no full season under Buxton's belt, wish to gamble. A gamble for one year of play in which he may become a potential superstar or just a five year $70m guy. The Twins will get shafted, like they kinda did on Santana. Because if Buxton refuses today, there is supposedly no tomorrow with the Twins and everyone will know it and proceed accordingly. Let him play out his fianl year and teams will talk when he becomes a free agent.

 

Same could happen with Berrios, which is why NOW is the most important time for the Twins. Is he a pitcher that will dominate and help a team advance, or is he someone that one can wait, to find out his real value come free agency.

 

I'm picturing B&B will be totally looking at $$$-signs and will willingly play out their contracts with the Twins and see what happens after age 28.

[Ryno_84]

7 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Didn’t say, unfortunately. As @Taildragger8791 pointed out, Rosenthal said there were escalators and incentives to make it more than $70 million if he’s healthy and on the field. Hard to judge based off this information if it’s a low ball or reasonable offer. 

Incentives should be huge with this deal. Buxton thinks he can stay healthy and every team in the league will pay close to market value for when he produces. I really wish it was a 4 or 5 year deal so if he does stay healthy, he can draw that $100+ contract he deserves. 

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Many of you must be reading a different report than I saw. I saw no reports of final offers, gauntlets, ultimatums or certain trades.

I read that they are negotiating with him and made an offer in excess of 70 million. It is good news to me that they are negotiating. It is also good news to me that the Twins will consider trading him if Buxton chooses to bet on himself having a big healthy year next year leading to a massive contract.

I guess I might caution that the Twins sending over an offer for him isn't necessarily a "negotiation".  And I say that because I'm not sure Byron Buxton is eager to negotiate.  It would give me some optimism if that gets reported though!

[Vanimal46]

8 minutes ago, Ryno_84 said:

Incentives should be huge with this deal. Buxton thinks he can stay healthy and every team in the league will pay close to market value for when he produces. I really wish it was a 4 or 5 year deal so if he does stay healthy, he can draw that $100+ contract he deserves. 

I don’t blame him. Most of his injuries have been of the freak variety instead of constant like Donaldson’s legs. We wouldn’t be reading this update and ultimatum if the negotiations are close to a mutual agreement.

Buxton needs another year to prove he can play more than 100 games. The Twins don’t have the luxury of paying above market value rates to find out if he can. He’s truly a unique case to predict future results. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

We don't know if he'll be hurt from here on out......if teams think that, then the Twins won't get much for him at all......I mean, this is what people said about Robert Smith of the Vikings, good thing they didn't cut bait.

Yes, it can happen.....but is Robert Smith the exception or the rule? 

People keep suggesting Buxton's injuries are bad luck, but people who get hurt often don't have to have it happen to the same area all the time.  Some human bodies are more or less durable. 

It's also worth mentioning on this example: Robert Smith was on the field for the Vikings at a better rate than Buxton in a more physical game for the time period he was labeled as injury prone. He also retired at age 28.  I'm not sure that example is a good one for a Buxton extension,

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Yes, it can happen.....but is Robert Smith the exception or the rule? 

People keep suggesting Buxton's injuries are bad luck, but people who get hurt often don't have to have it happen to the same area all the time.  Some human bodies are more or less durable. 

It's also worth mentioning on this example: Robert Smith was on the field for the Vikings at a better rate than Buxton in a more physical game for the time period he was labeled as injury prone. He also retired at age 28.  I'm not sure that example is a good one for a Buxton extension,

he got hit on the hand by a pitch......

[TheLeviathan]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

he got hit on the hand by a pitch......

I didn't realize that alone explained the hundreds of games he has missed since we drafted him.

Yeah, some of the injuries might just be terrible luck.  Some weren't.  Some were sliding.  Or running.  Or catching the ball.  Not bad luck, hurt during routine baseball activities.  Over and over and over again.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Boston got -

Position, team, average, OBP, SLG, OPS
Alex Verdugo (OF) BOS - .278,.346,.425
Jeter Downs (SS) AAA -.220,.293,.356, .649
Connor Wong (C) BOS - .273,.273,.364

I am not saying the won or lost the trade, so far it looks like the got a Larnach or Kirilloff in Verdugo, something like Lewis in Downs, and Wong is similiar to Jeffers.

I would say that Buxton is not as good as Betts, but maybe better if healthy, so I would expect a team to pay less than that.

IMO, I think something like Downs (pretty highly regarded prospect but not living up to the hype, yet) and Wong (a older solid prospect that seems destine to make the majors, maybe not but great but a solid player) is what I would expect the Twins to get for him,

To be clear I want them to sign him, but if they can get two prospects that will be Twins regulars by 2023, I wouldn't hate it. (I guess this means they would probably need some time in the majors in 2022)

Not to change the subject, but at the time I thought the Red Sox got a really good return on Betts. Verdugo is no slouch (he got MVP votes last year) and Downs and Wong are nice prospects to have... all for one year of Betts. That's a great return IMO.

Buxton isn't going to command this kind of return since his track record with the bat and health isn't close to what Betts has put up, but if you could get a poor man's version of this deal for Buxton, I'd do it.

[howeda7]

If 7/$70 is anything close to the real offer, that is a joke and Favley should be ashamed of himself.

5/$100 million. Starting at $16 and escalating to $24 million. Another $5 million/year in plate appearance incentives.

If necessary, I'd add a 6th year with a buyout or give him an opt out after 3 years. Preferably not the later.

I have zero faith in Falvey to get it done and fully expect him to be traded for an underwhelming return in the offseason.