Ken Rosenthal: Twins Trying to Sign Buxton Long Term

[Vanimal46]

The offer is $70+ million according to the article. Doesn’t specify the years. Rosenthal gave the impression this is the last offer from the Twins. If Buxton rejects it, he will be traded this offseason, if not by July 30. 

[In My La Z boy]

Oh boy. I think I am nervous either way. He just might be the biggest stud we'll ever have, but he also may never play a full season. I am unsure what outcome to root for?

[Whitey333]

The reported offer to Buxton is much more than fair.  Due to him spending more time on the injury list than the ball field he is not dependable.  He is a great defensive center fielder with a lifetime .247 average.  In 7 seasons he has only played more than 100 games once.  I like Buxton but he has not proven himself as a "star".   He had a great April this year but a great month here and there in a 7 year career does not make him a superstar.

[Taildragger8791]

In another summary of this article it was mentioned that the Twins are proposing an incentive-heavy deal for staying healthy and on the field, which significantly increased the numbers. Would be great if that worked out but I suspect Buxton knows he could get more guarantees from some gambling front office by going to FA.

[TheLeviathan]

What is the extensions length?

[Trov]

Buxton is the biggest question mark when it comes to long term signing.  He has only once played what could be close to a full season.  In 2017 he had 140 games and 511 plate appearances.  Outside of that most was 92 games in a season.  

He has shown this year, and flashes in past, that when on the field and healthy he can be the best player in the league, but he is at his year 27 season, general peek year for most players, and as his speed goes so will a lot of his value on the field.  

If he had track record of playing full years and just having injury issue this year, I would say lock him up for like 7 or 8 years, but being his has track record of playing only half a year or less, why pay him like he is going play full time.  You need to prorate his contract with the expectation he will not be playing half the year.  

My guess he will turn down the deal, bet on himself to stay healthy next year and hope a team signs him to major deal.  If not he will keep getting short term deals for several years but still good money, just never the 7 year plus deal. 

[Vanimal46]

17 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

What is the extensions length?

Didn’t say, unfortunately. As @Taildragger8791 pointed out, Rosenthal said there were escalators and incentives to make it more than $70 million if he’s healthy and on the field. Hard to judge based off this information if it’s a low ball or reasonable offer. 

[chpettit19]

Sounds like the Twins are approaching things in a way that makes sense. Try to extend him and if you can't trade him so you don't lose him for just a comp pick. Lot more details needed to be able to know how reasonable the contract is from a Twins and Buxton point of view. I like the idea of escalators based on games played, MVPS, whatever that give the contract the chance to get real big, but I haven't seen any details on what the deal really looks like in terms of length or anything. Only things I've seen is it's more than the 70m the Yankees gave Hicks. That's not great detail. Is it also a 7 year deal? 5 years? 10 with a bunch of opt outs or options? 

Love that they're trying to extend him and give themselves time to trade him if a deal can't be done, but interested to see what they're really offering him. Next up...Berrios.

[TheLeviathan]

37 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Didn’t say, unfortunately. As @Taildragger8791 pointed out, Rosenthal said there were escalators and incentives to make it more than $70 million if he’s healthy and on the field. Hard to judge based off this information if it’s a low ball or reasonable offer. 

Interesting.  I ask because I got the sense from the twitter comments that it was a base 7/70M offer with incentives.  10M AAV sounds like the team has absolutely no confidence in his health and, I'd argue, much confidence in him staying here to make that valuation their last ditch offer.

[Dman]

45 minutes ago, Trov said:

My guess he will turn down the deal, bet on himself to stay healthy next year and hope a team signs him to major deal.  If not he will keep getting short term deals for several years but still good money, just never the 7 year plus deal. 

I agree with you.  He has said in the past that he believes in himself so I just don't see him selling himself short.  For me I kind of like the Hicks comp.  Hicks has been hurt quite a bit as well but Buxton is the greater talent.  At least they are trying to do something but I think it falls far short of what Buxton's agents expectations are.

I get the Twins concern though.  Buxton will be on the wrong side of thirty soon and will be more injury prone not less as time goes on.  With all the freak injuries he has lost most of his prime production years.  From the outside looking in as a fan it seems like a fair deal but in the baseball world I think this deal falls far short.  I don't think he signs.

[jorgenswest]

Buxton is an elite talent and a difference maker. Someone will pay up for him. I hope it is the Twins.

[TheLeviathan]

13 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Buxton is an elite talent and a difference maker. Someone will pay up for him. I hope it is the Twins.

Someone will pay him a lot of money.  No one will give him more than 3 years.  

I don't think Buxton signs this because the AAV is too low.  But if he bets on himself he may not get to 100M on one or two year deals before his body and value give out.  That's the gambit here.

[Unwinder]

Based on previous conversations on here about extending Buck, I find it hard to believe that this is even a good-faith offer rather than a formality to appease fans into thinking they tried.

[DJL44]

He has to turn down 7/$70M. He can make that much in a 4 year deal on the open market.

[AdoreAdorno]

You don’t entice a player to forego free agency with incentive laden contracts. 100 million guaranteed would be the serious starting point.

[Squirrel]

It's difficult to judge without know all the incentives and bump ups and how he reaches them. I'm not sure what he's worth ... is the base of 7/70 worth it if he only plays half a season each of those 7 yrs? He worked hard in this off season to strengthen his body, and yet ... he's still out. And yeah, some of that isn't his fault, but yet ...

This fanbase gets frustrated when we don't make the deal, and then gets frustrated a couple years in when we do.

[Mike Sixel]

45 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

Based on previous conversations on here about extending Buck, I find it hard to believe that this is even a good-faith offer rather than a formality to appease fans into thinking they tried.

This. Classic leak from a team. Like the twins being in on every Cuban under previous front offices . This is cover.

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

It's difficult to judge without know all the incentives and bump ups and how he reaches them. I'm not sure what he's worth ... is the base of 7/70 worth it if he only plays half a season each of those 7 yrs? He worked hard in this off season to strengthen his body, and yet ... he's still out. And yeah, some of that isn't his fault, but yet ...

This fanbase gets frustrated when we don't make the deal, and then gets frustrated a couple years in when we do.

7/70 for him, even assuming 80ish games played a season, is most definitely worth it. You'd hope he's healthy at the end of the year for the playoffs, but in terms of the value he brings to even 80 games he's definitely worth 10m a year.

My question is have people seen any report that says it's actually a 7/70 base deal? The Athletic report just says it's more than Hicks' deal. I haven't seen anything that even mentions the number of years this extension is. Is it 4/70? 5/70? 7/70? 10/70? The differences in those deals would be huge for both the team and Buck and the likelihood a deal can be made. 4/70 plus escalators is something I think Buck would be interested in. I don't know why he'd sign 7/70 unless the escalators at least double the deal if he stays healthy. 1 healthy season gets him a monster AAV deal even if it's on a short term. He comes out and plays 140 games at anywhere near the player he's been when healthy the last 2 seasons and a big market team will throw a Bauer deal at him without a doubt.

[Dodecahedron]

Other teams can see his numbers too, he knows he can make more than $70M.  Buxton is a gigantic Christmas present for a team that is already built and just needs the one player in the league who can deliver another dozen or so wins, minimum, even if he is riding the pine for three months.

[TheLeviathan]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

7/70 for him, even assuming 80ish games played a season, is most definitely worth it. You'd hope he's healthy at the end of the year for the playoffs, but in terms of the value he brings to even 80 games he's definitely worth 10m a year.

My question is have people seen any report that says it's actually a 7/70 base deal? The Athletic report just says it's more than Hicks' deal. I haven't seen anything that even mentions the number of years this extension is. Is it 4/70? 5/70? 7/70? 10/70? The differences in those deals would be huge for both the team and Buck and the likelihood a deal can be made. 4/70 plus escalators is something I think Buck would be interested in. I don't know why he'd sign 7/70 unless the escalators at least double the deal if he stays healthy. 1 healthy season gets him a monster AAV deal even if it's on a short term. He comes out and plays 140 games at anywhere near the player he's been when healthy the last 2 seasons and a big market team will throw a Bauer deal at him without a doubt.

7/70 seemed to be the speculation but that wasn't reported.  In honesty, I can't imagine he gets a 7 year deal for a higher AAV than 10M.  That is a ton of risk the team is taking on with that term.

[Mike Sixel]

If I was guessing.... It is 4 for 70, plus incentives. 

[Dodecahedron]

45 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This. Classic leak from a team. Like the twins being in on every Cuban under previous front offices . This is cover.

I think it's worse than this.  The article says if he doesn't take this deal, he is gone, and gone right now.

This is a threat from the team, directed at Buxton, and funneled through mass media.  Very low class.

Rosenthal is a slimeball for playing this game on the side of the Twins, and Buxton is too smart to say yes when threatened in this way.

On the bright side, when Buxton is traded, Buxton Twins gear will be very cheap.  Don't buy anything now!

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I can't imagine he gets a 7 year deal for a higher AAV than 10M.  That is a ton of risk the team is taking on with that term.

It's a tiny risk unless you think Buxton is going to get hurt and never play again. Buxton puts up $10M worth of value in 40 games.

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's a tiny risk unless you think Buxton is going to get hurt and never play again. Buxton puts up $10M worth of value in 40 games.

At this point, 40 games doesn't feel like a given and I don't agree he's worth that value.  Any GM inking him to a long term is taking a significant risk they just created an albatross that will be hung over their head.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

At this point, 40 games doesn't feel like a given and I don't agree he's worth that value.  Any GM inking him to a long term is taking a significant risk they just created an albatross that will be hung over their head.

That's a very pessimistic take. Any GM inking him long term is also taking a significant risk that Buxton is the MVP one of those seasons. Over the last 3 seasons he's produced 8 WAR in 153 games. 2 WAR averages $16M on the free agent market, $10M was a lowball for his production over 40 games.

[TheLeviathan]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's a very pessimistic take. Any GM inking him long term is also taking a significant risk that Buxton is the MVP one of those seasons. Over the last 3 seasons he's produced 8 WAR in 153 games. 2 WAR averages $16M on the free agent market, $10M was a lowball for his production over 40 games.

There is absolutely upside he could be an MVP and make that contract worth every penny.  But my pessimism is born out of some really tough facts, but facts nonetheless.  Every GM out there has access to those facts too: counting on Byron Buxton is a dicey proposition.  Counting on 34 year old Buxton?  Woof.

[Taildragger8791]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's a tiny risk unless you think Buxton is going to get hurt and never play again. Buxton puts up $10M worth of value in 40 games.

He might put up $10 million worth of value but he also hamstrings your roster if you have to plan for a highly capable backup, or if he's unavailable in the playoffs or stretch runs. I don't think it's as easy as WAR to dollars makes it seem.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Counting on 34 year old Buxton?  Woof.

34 year old Byron Buxton doesn't matter. He'll provide nearly $70M worth of value in the next 3 seasons (ages 28-30), just like he did 2019-2021. If the Twins can spread out those payments over an even longer time period they get a discount due to the time value of money. Every team would like to pay out a 3 year deal over the next 7 years.

He's not an old player in decline - he's in his prime. He's not taking 7/$70M because someone is going to offer him 3/$70M after 2022. He might take 4/$70M as a base if the incentives are good because he's looking at less than $10M in arbitration next season.

[Danchat]

I really doubt they're offering him a 7 year extension... I would guess 4 or 5 years. 7 years stacked on top of control of his 2022 season, for a guy who can't stay on the field... I don't see this FO offering a deal of that length.

I do like that as far as we know, they're taking the "extension or trade" route to this. If they do go to trade him, it may not moving him at his peak, but his value isn't going to get higher in 2022 with less control of him.

[bean5302]

I don't see any team giving Buxton more than 3 years in the open market on a guaranteed high AAV contract. At the end of 2021, it will have been 5 years since Buxton hadn't missed an massive amount of time on the field due to injury or generated more than 3 WAR in a season.

I can't see the Twins offering less than 3-4 years in total right now (2-3yr extension), and at $70MM, that's more than fair. If the speculation is accurate and the Twins are offering 7/70MM, I also can't see Buxton taking it because the potential for him to earn dramatically more on a short term deal and a new contract afterwards is realistic. 

The timing of this statement makes no sense to me. Are the Twins attempting to drum up some calls on Buxton across the league? If they're not already getting calls, that probably says a lot about other teams' interest level in him. Also, a statement like this is likely to agitate Buxton which reduces Twins negotiating leverage with other teams and Buxton both now and in the offseason. I just see this as a lose-lose. It would be a better strategy to leak another team is courting the Twins for Buxton.