Cashing In at the Deadline Will Require Painful Decisions for Twins

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

The last controllable pitcher traded was ______________. Jake Odorizzi? 

how quickly we forget Maeda 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

You are correct. They do compete, usually in a stadium about 1/3 full. The few people I know in the area tell me fans have very little attachment to that team. Maybe because the players are gone before they can get attached?

The reason for poor attendance is the horrid location of the stadium.  It's a nightmare getting there.  

Is Houston's attendance down having let Cole and Springer go to free agency?

How about Boston letting Betts go?  How about when they let Lester go?

Did attendance go down in St. louis when they Pujlos go.  

Are you telling us you would rather they hold on to players we know vs developing a consistent winner?

[Blyleven2011]

We are talking trades or expiring contracts at the end of the year  ....

Rocco's contract expires I believe at the end of 2021 ,

If another team came calling for the 2019 manager if the year , I sell him for a dollar like the twins did with Jim eisenreich back in the 90's ...

With better managing and coaching the twins could be alot better in 2022 ......

Everyone thought tony larussa  was to old to make a comeback and he has Chicago in first place

[insagt1]

11 hours ago, Tim said:

Please elaborate on why they won’t get value for either player, also elaborate on your rationale of not trading Cruz (expiring contract)

Its a crapshoot Tim, thats all. Trading Cruz has been discussed over and over here. They may well trade him but no one is going to offer what he's 'worth'..a 41 year old DH who can't play the field. It would be a charity move. Historically, teams who offload talent at the deadline rarely get much in return because the buyers know they don't have to offer much. Yes, there are exceptions but overall, for me, I would rather wait to trade our value assets in the offseason when legit bargaining can happen. If someone blows us away with an offer for Cruz...that would be great and they should definitely do it. But I doubt that will happen. Has he requested a move? If so, then that too would be OK.

I don't think we are a rebuilding team per se and to capture a few young studs who may or may not ever make the climb...especially pitchers doesn't excite me. But thats just my opinion based on decades of watching this grand old game. Sometimes you win, sometimes not. But I'm in the classroom that says if Twins are trading now to actually improve in '22 or ;23, its a real gamble. Trading for the sake of trading doesn't interest me.

But I know others don't share that opinion and thats perfectly fine. I guess we will all have to wait and see.

[insagt1]

Maybe someone close to the team in Minneapolis knows more about Buxton. From his stays in Rochester, the lack of a callup a couple years back and even comments this year (for what its worth) that he may have been at odds with Rocco about getting back in the lineup...I have to wonder if he has any interest at all in staying with the Twins? Even if they opened the vaults? Anyone have serious comments about this?

[jorgenswest]

Keeping Robles would be a mistake. His xFIP has been poor the entire year and the ERA is moving towards his xFIP. Colome has been better. Duffy has been better. Alcala has been better. In the last 5 years he has had one year where his xFIP was below league average and one where his walk rate was under 10%. I can’t imagine any projection for 2022 would change that path.

[Dman]

14 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

Maybe someone close to the team in Minneapolis knows more about Buxton. From his stays in Rochester, the lack of a callup a couple years back and even comments this year (for what its worth) that he may have been at odds with Rocco about getting back in the lineup...I have to wonder if he has any interest at all in staying with the Twins? Even if they opened the vaults? Anyone have serious comments about this?

According to a Star Trib article he would like to be extended and supposedly he doesn't care about the money I am sure the agent and agency that represent him does though.  With Byron being injured sooo much it has to be hard to find a number that will satisfy both sides.  Personally I don't think the Twins will get it done but that is just my opinion.

"Of course I would love an extension. Obviously, I've been blessed to stay with this one team in my career, so to be able to put on this career and go out there every day, it's something that many guys can't do," said Buxton, who turned 27 in December. "I want to be one of those guys that was there with that one team. This place just means a lot."

[insagt1]

2 minutes ago, Dman said:

According to a Star Trib article he would like to be extended and supposedly he doesn't care about the money I am sure the agent and agency that represent him does though.  With Byron being injured sooo much it has to be hard to find a number that will satisfy both sides.  Personally I don't think the Twins will get it done but that is just my opinion.

"Of course I would love an extension. Obviously, I've been blessed to stay with this one team in my career, so to be able to put on this career and go out there every day, it's something that many guys can't do," said Buxton, who turned 27 in December. "I want to be one of those guys that was there with that one team. This place just means a lot."

thank you ...that is encouraging then. Hope somehow we can keep him AND somehow he can stay healthy.

[bean5302]

If it's not about the money, Buxton would just sign for 1 year with 10 team options all for the MLB minimum. It's absolutely about the money, haha. That's okay, by the way. He's a professional and pretty much all professionals expect to be compensated fairly. The Twins aren't going to trash talk Buxton to the media and Buxton isn't going to trash the Minnesota Twins and say he doesn't want to be here, either. Well, at least it's very rare to see a MLB player take that position.

The next couple of weeks should be really interesting.

[Major League Ready]

38 minutes ago, Dman said:

According to a Star Trib article he would like to be extended and supposedly he doesn't care about the money I am sure the agent and agency that represent him does though.  With Byron being injured sooo much it has to be hard to find a number that will satisfy both sides.  Personally I don't think the Twins will get it done but that is just my opinion.

"Of course I would love an extension. Obviously, I've been blessed to stay with this one team in my career, so to be able to put on this career and go out there every day, it's something that many guys can't do," said Buxton, who turned 27 in December. "I want to be one of those guys that was there with that one team. This place just means a lot."

Thanks for this article.  I was unaware.  He is the biggest difference maker we have for sure but will he ever stay healthy long enough to impose that ability?  I sure as heck do NOT know.  We also don't have anyone in the system that's a good replacement unless Lewis ends up in CF.  I would not be disappointed if he was extended.  The rumor mill should be heating up soon!

[IndianaTwin]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

...It's funny how many really good players we COULD trade away, Berrios, Buxton, Arraez, Polanco, Rogers, Donaldson, etc. So if we have that many good players to trade,  boy, it sure looks like we still have a good nucleus to keep and re-tool instead of blowing everything up!

Funny how we talk sometimes about going ALL IN and then want to blow it all up after a disappointing year.  ...

 

The bolded part is the cut-to-the-chase, if you ask me.

I'd further edit the last sentence to say it's funny how we want to blow it up after a disappointing HALF-year.

 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, insagt1 said:

Its a crapshoot Tim, thats all. Trading Cruz has been discussed over and over here. They may well trade him but no one is going to offer what he's 'worth'..a 41 year old DH who can't play the field. It would be a charity move. Historically, teams who offload talent at the deadline rarely get much in return because the buyers know they don't have to offer much. Yes, there are exceptions but overall, for me, I would rather wait to trade our value assets in the offseason when legit bargaining can happen. If someone blows us away with an offer for Cruz...that would be great and they should definitely do it. But I doubt that will happen. Has he requested a move? If so, then that too would be OK.

I don't think we are a rebuilding team per se and to capture a few young studs who may or may not ever make the climb...especially pitchers doesn't excite me. But thats just my opinion based on decades of watching this grand old game. Sometimes you win, sometimes not. But I'm in the classroom that says if Twins are trading now to actually improve in '22 or ;23, its a real gamble. Trading for the sake of trading doesn't interest me.

But I know others don't share that opinion and thats perfectly fine. I guess we will all have to wait and see.

I think the reason people question the idea of not trading Cruz is that he's on a 1 year deal. They can't trade him during the offseason cuz he's a free agent then and likely has far more suitors as many expect the DH to be implemented in the NL next year. We say there's no reason not to trade Cruz because the team isn't competing this year and if you can get anything at all for him you're better off. Nothing says they can't trade him in the next couple weeks and re-sign him this offseason. I don't think they would as they have far bigger needs (pitching), but he'll be a free agent and can sign with them if that's what he wants to do. It's also nice to send him to a contender late in his career and give him a shot at a ring this year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

My question is whether or not they can compete next season. If so, you keep Berrios and Rodgers. If not, then well, ship them out. But I have to ask how a team with such bright hopes this season failed so miserably. At some point, our front office/owernship needs to take some blame. 

[chpettit19]

Obviously a lot of factors at play over the next couple weeks as they make trade decisions. I think at the core it comes down to 2 things. How good you think you can reasonably be next year and what are the chances any of your "big 3" sign extensions before they hit the market. Can you compete for the division next year? Compete for the WS? Looking at 81-81? Worse? Close on previous extension talks or 10s of millions away in every negotiation?

I'd expect the FO to have a number of different possible "routes" to take laid out. Different payroll options from the low to the high end of what ownership will realistically be willing to do next year and what possible FAs they could get at the different levels. With contingency ideas for missing out on their top 5 targets at each position they'd be going after. Then see what people are willing to give up for Berrios, Buxton, Rogers. How does that change each of your 2022 "routes?" If you can get a near MLB ready arm plus a flier or 2 for Berrios and you know he's not signing an extension before he hits the market how does that make your plans look?

I don't see a real way for them to compete for a WS next year. I just don't see how they can bring in the arms needed to do it. Their hope for that relies almost entirely on the development of the arms in the system. I don't know near enough about those arms to have confidence on what any of them will look like in the majors for their careers, but I don't think it'd be reasonable for the Twins to think they can fill more than 1 rotation spot with an internal young arm for next year on a WS team. It's just too big of an ask with what we know right now. I also don't know how the extension talks with Berrios have gone. If I don't feel at least 80% confident I can sign him before the end of next year I'm seeing what he's worth. If I get a near MLB ready arm (Pearson and Woods Richardson have been names I've seen on multiple national outlets) I'd be very tempted to make that move. Certainly try to get more on top of them, but I'll take a current big name prospect over a comp pick 100 out of 100 times if I don't see a realistic way I can compete in the walk year of a Berrios type player.

[lombo617]

Retooling around Berrios and Rogers is a better approach than a full rebuild. Even though things don't look great for 2022, I'm not sure they look much better for 2023 and 2024.  At least in 2022 they will have Berrios and Maeda in their primes.  They can build on that.  The lineup will be good in 2022.  It probably gets worse after in 2023 and 2024 that when Buxton and Donaldson depart.  I am not confident that Kiriloff, Larnach, and Royce Lewis entering the primes will make up the difference of what they will lose after 2022.  They're aren't any great pitching prospects that are likely to emerge as front line arms in 2023 or 2024. Neither a retool nor a rebuild is a great option.  But the presumption should be to compete every year, unless there is a clear future advantage to giving up present competitiveness.  I don't think that's the case here.   

[bean5302]

There continues to be a lot of talk about Buxton, but the reality is he's not likely going to be out of a splint much before the trade deadline itself, and he'll need an obvious rehab assignment. Buxton being ready for MLB games much before early/mid August is probably unlikely and teams are usually pretty skittish about trading for injured players. I have advocated for Buxton being shopped, at least, to get a perspective on what other teams think of him, but it's hard to get a good feel for a player's value while they're injured. Sucks for everybody. Buxton himself, the front office and the fans.

 

[lombo617]

The Giants show that a retool is possible at a limited cost.  They brought in two reasonably priced arms (Wood and DeScalfani) to complement Gausman.  Veterans got healthy and bounced back, and they added a few other free agent pieces.  The Twins could do something similar.  There is a real opportunity cost to giving up on 2022 with the amount of talent still on the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, lombo617 said:

The Giants show that a retool is possible at a limited cost.  They brought in two reasonably priced arms (Wood and DeScalfani) to complement Gausman.  Veterans got healthy and bounced back, and they added a few other free agent pieces.  The Twins could do something similar.  There is a real opportunity cost to giving up on 2022 with the amount of talent still on the Twins.

I think this is a fair take for sure. I'd only deal guys signed past this year if I was blown out of the water (except maybe Donaldson if I could free up all his money and was confident I could sign a legit, good, SS to a multi year deal).

[mike8791]

Lots of good discussion on the Retool vs.  Rebuild Question.  Nick, you seem to straddle the fence by your"retool and reset", implying to me anyway that it is unrealistic for this team to contend in 2022, but with a couple of good trades of our top pieces, perhaps a resigning of Buxton, and a better FA outcome next year, a reasonable expectation would be a return to contention in 2023, rather than a long term rebuild.  That looks like the wisest choice now.  If the Twins can get two almost-major-league-pitching prospects for Berrios and Rogers, they should jump at the chance.  I could see the 2022 staff improving with  one of these trade additions, progress from at least one  of our minor leaguers, and an improvement from Maeda and Pineda(or FA signing).  Certainly, there would be more longer term hope for the staff than currently is the case.  More importantly, they would not have to rush any of their prospects next year.  I should add that with this outline, the offense should not be decimated.  Can't afford to lose more than one of Sano, Cruz or Donaldson(and none should be traded if the return is as weak as forecasters predict:.  I think the 2022 team should be able to rebound to at least a .500 club with a pitching outlook for 2023 much improved.

My biggest concern, however, is the huge question mark about Falvines' ability to assess talent.  Over at the Athletic, Glee-man has had some excellent articles on three weaknesses this FO has exhibited in 4+ years : 1.) a weak midseason trade record: 2.) poor FA signings(except for Cruz) and 3.)  inability to hold on to minor league talent that has gone on to much greater heights in other orgs.   One might even conclude that Falvey's hubris over knowing talent better than his predecessor has clouded his judgment over inherited prospects.   It makes for a very sober assessment of their judgment, including on the manager and coaching staff.

I believe Falvey will get a pass because of the lost development year in 2020 but if they flounder again in the first half of 2022, Pohlad better have the guts to wield the ax.  With the core this FO inherited, there can be no more ex cuses for such underperformance.

[bean5302]

In regard to whether or not the Twins can compete in 2022 if they move Buxton, Berrios, Rogers and Donaldson combined, the answer is yes. Colombe is going to need to pitch out of his mind good to have the Twins pick up his option. That would leave Minnesota with a tiny $26MM on the books for next year, plus another, say, $14MM for bringing back the rest of the roster.

What could they do with $80-$90MM in a typical Twins budget? Just about anything they want. Major components of the team could look totally different. If the Twins only went with other in house options, got nobody MLB ready in return for those players and tried to compete with a $40MM payroll? Obviously, they'd look like a team gearing up to lose 100 games, but it seems really unlikely for that to happen.

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

how quickly we forget Maeda 

How quickly people forget that last year was a short season, How quickly people forget Mazda’s career with the Dodgers. After his first year Maeda was in the bullpen by the end of the year. That is not a solid starter unless the bar is set low. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

In regard to whether or not the Twins can compete in 2022 if they move Buxton, Berrios, Rogers and Donaldson combined, the answer is yes. Colombe is going to need to pitch out of his mind good to have the Twins pick up his option. That would leave Minnesota with a tiny $26MM on the books for next year, plus another, say, $14MM for bringing back the rest of the roster.

What could they do with $80-$90MM in a typical Twins budget? Just about anything they want. Major components of the team could look totally different. If the Twins only went with other in house options, got nobody MLB ready in return for those players and tried to compete with a $40MM payroll? Obviously, they'd look like a team gearing up to lose 100 games, but it seems really unlikely for that to happen.

I am not sure how you could possibly believe this is true.  Donaldson and Polanco are $26M.  What about Berrios /Maeda/Rodgers/Duffy/Kepler/Buxton/Sano and Garver?  I come up with $93M with arbitration estimates and an assumption of first and 2nd year players getting an increase to $600K.  My guess it's probably closer to $700K.  They could get a very good SP and a SS.  The rest would have to be filled by prospects.  However, it probably would not be financially feasible to retain any of Berrios/Buxton/Rodgers after 2022.  So, it would be an all-in for 22 play.

 

[Nick Nelson]

8 hours ago, Trov said:

The article says Cruz will not bring in a game changing prospect.  What it should say is he will not bring in a top rated prospect.  Only the future will decide if someone is game changing.

I mean, does that need to be stated? I think we all understand that it's possible to find a hidden gem or unlock something in a lesser prospect, but the bottom line is that nobody's going to trade a prospect they think really highly of for 2 months of a 41-year-old DH, not matter how good he is.

On the other hand, they'll have to do just that to pry away Berrios or Rogers. 

[roger]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

I mean, does that need to be stated? I think we all understand that it's possible to find a hidden gem or unlock something in a lesser prospect, but the bottom line is that nobody's going to trade a prospect they think really highly of for 2 months of a 41-year-old DH, not matter how good he is.

On the other hand, they'll have to do just that to pry away Berrios or Rogers. 

Cruz is probably the top bat available for a team in the hunt needing one.  A bat that could make a huge difference to team X.  All the Twins need is two teams to want that bat and one of them to fall in love with the idea of penciling him into their lineup down the stretch.  Many bad trades have been made every year.  Will one benefit the Twins this year?  Probably not, but you never know until it happens.

[Rigby]

Something going on with Berrios? Not sure how accurate Sportsline is but he's not listed as a SP through the 21st. (Albers is listed on the 20th.)

[Rigby]

2 minutes ago, Rigby said:

Something going on with Berrios? Not sure how accurate Sportsline is but he's not listed as a SP through the 21st. (Albers is listed on the 20th.)

My mistake. Listed 2nd game of DH on the 19th.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Great article, ‘Nick. It’s all boils down to what you think of the talent on hand and whether you think this team can or will resign Berrios or Rogers. I think the talent on hand is good enough to contend in 2022 and certainly by 2023 IF we add a middle of the rotation free agent starter and a late inning free agent bullpen piece. Trading Cruz and or Donaldson freeze up the payroll space to make those moves. Playing the rest of this year with the young guys given every opportunity helps us evaluate what we have and whether I’m right on the window of contention.

I think trading Berrios or Rogers at the deadline is too soon. Evaluate your younger additions over the rest of the season. Trade the expiring contracts, Cruz (and Donaldson if the offer is good enough) to augment things for next year If possible, but really to create openings for young pitchers to audition for 2022.. Make the decision on Berrios and Rogers over the winter after you have time to really see whether contention is possible in 2022. Don’t trade now, it’s too soon..

 

[KirbyDome89]

20 hours ago, Tim said:

When it comes to this topic, the majority of comments are people typically complaining about a "rebuild" and how trading players like Rogers and Berrios for "prospects"  isn't how to win..  Granted they are an anomaly and its salary related, the Rays are "rebuilding" every year, yet compete in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox and consistently win year in and year out with, while maintains a top 5 farm system, and bottom of the league payroll... How do they do that? making moves like this. Sometimes you've gotta make tough decisions, sometimes they hurt as fans, we all get it. But if they are 2 weeks from the deadline, neither player has an extension, and you aren't competitive, you need to take a step back and do what's best for the organization as a whole. I don't care about competing in 2022 frankly if your on pace to finish with 85+ loses. Why would next year be different? are we gearing up for a 5+ year run with a cheap core? . If this is a move that makes you better in 2023, 2024, etc.. Then you do it. 

If you're trading Berrios, how are you solidifying 4 rotation spots in a 2 year window and avoiding a rebuild?

"Be the Rays," sounds great until you realize the Twins need to instantly become elite at talent identification, acquisition, and development, because that's how TB has remained competitive, not because they move stars before they hit FA. 

[Tim]

29 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

If you're trading Berrios, how are you solidifying 4 rotation spots in a 2 year window and avoiding a rebuild?

"Be the Rays," sounds great until you realize the Twins need to instantly become elite at talent identification, acquisition, and development, because that's how TB has remained competitive, not because they move stars before they hit FA. 

Oooffff .. Alright.

- David Price

- Chris Archer

- Blake Snell

All traded with controllable years. 2/3 were Cy Young winners.. all traded with 1.5 - 3 seasons of control.. I’d call that trading stars before they hit free agency.

- Tyler Glasnow

- Shane Baz

- Luis Patino

One is a pretty solid starter right now, pretty much top 3 in the game.  The other 2 are probably top 10 pitching prospects and figure to slot into the rotation in the 2nd half.  Probably for the next 5-7 years too...both reached the majors within 2 years.

I won’t even get into what else the rays got in those trades, but it’s pretty good man.

Anyways, your wrong.

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, lombo617 said:

The Giants show that a retool is possible at a limited cost.  They brought in two reasonably priced arms (Wood and DeScalfani) to complement Gausman.  Veterans got healthy and bounced back, and they added a few other free agent pieces.  The Twins could do something similar.  There is a real opportunity cost to giving up on 2022 with the amount of talent still on the Twins.

Naming the Giants is interesting. This isn’t a poke at you, Lombo, but it points out to many people that stuff happens, even when you make good plans. 

Is there anyone here who was reading GiantsDaily in the offseason and can report on how their front office was likely being excoriated for their dumpster-diving approach to the rotation?

Who among us would have taken the rotation of Gausman, Wood, DeSclafani over Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda? Yet one of those threesomes led the team to 25 games over and the other to 15 games under. 

And when stuff happens, you don’t overreact.