Cashing In at the Deadline Will Require Painful Decisions for Twins

[KirbyDome89]

10 minutes ago, Tim said:

Oooffff .. Alright.

- David Price

- Chris Archer

- Blake Snell

All traded with controllable years. 2/3 were Cy Young winners.. all traded with 1.5 - 3 seasons of control.. I’d call that trading stars before they hit free agency.

I won’t even get into what those trades got rays in return.

Anyways, your wrong.

Maybe you missed the point? TB's success is attributable to their ability to replace holes, not create them.

You'll have to show me why I'm wrong for suggesting the Twins aren't on par with TB when it comes to the three attributes I previously listed. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 hours ago, diehardtwinsfan said:

My question is whether or not they can compete next season. If so, you keep Berrios and Rodgers. If not, then well, ship them out. But I have to ask how a team with such bright hopes this season failed so miserably. At some point, our front office/owernship needs to take some blame. 

For the first and probably only time in my life, I’m going to say this:

I find the Pohlads rather blameless for this situation. They spent quite fairly coming out of a pandemic season.

Everyone else? Oh yeah, I got blame all day. 

[DocBauer]

8 hours ago, Dman said:

According to a Star Trib article he would like to be extended and supposedly he doesn't care about the money I am sure the agent and agency that represent him does though.  With Byron being injured sooo much it has to be hard to find a number that will satisfy both sides.  Personally I don't think the Twins will get it done but that is just my opinion.

"Of course I would love an extension. Obviously, I've been blessed to stay with this one team in my career, so to be able to put on this career and go out there every day, it's something that many guys can't do," said Buxton, who turned 27 in December. "I want to be one of those guys that was there with that one team. This place just means a lot."

Thank you for this! I don't subscribe to the Trib any longer so this was very interesting to hear. I object to any opinion that Buck's statements are just "player speak". If so he could have easily worded his comments differently with something like "it would be great to play with one team your whole career but we'll see what happens." He went way beyond that. And he's NEVER been dishonest in his comments or shown any signs of being a primadonna. And IMO, he's never held anything against the Twins for his "shut down" a few years ago that cost him some service time. Again, IMO, that might have been the best course for his future, But I digress. The problem with signing him is sooo much injury and missed time. The Twins know this, Buxton and his agents know this. Nobody is unintillegent or uninformed here. The question is a balancing act of guaranteed money for both sides that makes sense, very possibly with incentives. But I'm just a fan and not  in charge of these things so I'm no going to speculate on the details. An opt out after a couple 2-3yrs could be a very interesting way to get something done that is right and fair for both sides.

As a brief aside, considering production, durability, and even projection, I think Berrios is more straightforward. But a fair contract with an opt out in 2-3yrs could be a reasonable option as well.

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Thank you for this! I don't subscribe to the Trib any longer so this was very interesting to hear. I object to any opinion that Buck's statements are just "player speak". If so he could have easily worded his comments differently with something like "it would be great to play with one team your whole career but we'll see what happens." He went way beyond that. And he's NEVER been dishonest in his comments or shown any signs of being a primadonna. And IMO, he's never held anything against the Twins for his "shut down" a few years ago that cost him some service time. Again, IMO, that might have been the best course for his future, But I digress. The problem with signing him is sooo much injury and missed time. The Twins know this, Buxton and his agents know this. Nobody is unintillegent or uninformed here. The question is a balancing act of guaranteed money for both sides that makes sense, very possibly with incentives. But I'm just a fan and not  in charge of these things so I'm no going to speculate on the details. An opt out after a couple 2-3yrs could be a very interesting way to get something done that is right and fair for both sides.

As a brief aside, considering production, durability, and even projection, I think Berrios is more straightforward. But a fair contract with an opt out in 2-3yrs could be a reasonable option as well.

Honestly I think his agent\agency just wants to prove what he can do through a full season to gauge his price tag but he always gets these freak injuries.  I don't see an extension on the horizon because they don't want to sell buck short and the Twins don't want to overpay.  Both sides need to see him make it through a season healthy otherwise I think they let him go.  Maybe I am completely wrong but we will see.

[IndianaTwin]

15 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Thank you for this! I don't subscribe to the Trib any longer so this was very interesting to hear. I object to any opinion that Buck's statements are just "player speak". If so he could have easily worded his comments differently with something like "it would be great to play with one team your whole career but we'll see what happens." He went way beyond that. And he's NEVER been dishonest in his comments or shown any signs of being a primadonna. And IMO, he's never held anything against the Twins for his "shut down" a few years ago that cost him some service time. Again, IMO, that might have been the best course for his future, But I digress. The problem with signing him is sooo much injury and missed time. The Twins know this, Buxton and his agents know this. Nobody is unintillegent or uninformed here. The question is a balancing act of guaranteed money for both sides that makes sense, very possibly with incentives. But I'm just a fan and not  in charge of these things so I'm no going to speculate on the details. An opt out after a couple 2-3yrs could be a very interesting way to get something done that is right and fair for both sides.

As a brief aside, considering production, durability, and even projection, I think Berrios is more straightforward. But a fair contract with an opt out in 2-3yrs could be a reasonable option as well.

I hadn’t thought of it in these terms, but if he’d gotten the year of service a few years ago, he’d be going through free agency THIS year. Some team would likely take a chance on his big time talent, but you’re right, given the injuries that did happen this year, he’s much better off hoping to be healthy next year over being a free agent this year. 

[Vanimal46]

15 minutes ago, Dman said:

Honestly I think his agent\agency just wants to prove what he can do through a full season to gauge his price tag but he always gets these freak injuries.  I don't see an extension on the horizon because they don't want to sell buck short and the Twins don't want to overpay.  Both sides need to see him make it through a season healthy otherwise I think they let him go.  Maybe I am completely wrong but we will see.

All 29 teams need to see how many games Buxton is capable of playing in a season. At this point, even the big markets won’t spend more than a high AAV 2-3 year contract. 

[TheLeviathan]

7 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I hadn’t thought of it in these terms, but if he’d gotten the year of service a few years ago, he’d be going through free agency THIS year. Some team would likely take a chance on his big time talent, but you’re right, given the injuries that did happen this year, he’s much better off hoping to be healthy next year over being a free agent this year. 

They will for sure take a shot at him, but what people are getting wrong around here (IMO) is that they think he'll get a long contract.  Teams will blow a wad of cash in a short term deal, but no one is locking in to him for anything beyond that.  A 6 year contract to Byron Buxton is the kind of thing that gets you fired in a few years.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

27 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

They will for sure take a shot at him, but what people are getting wrong around here (IMO) is that they think he'll get a long contract.  Teams will blow a wad of cash in a short term deal, but no one is locking in to him for anything beyond that.  A 6 year contract to Byron Buxton is the kind of thing that gets you fired in a few years.  

I agree six is really unlikely but I think a lot depends on Byron. I could easily see him taking one year if no one offers more than four. 

[DocBauer]

Were I a little smarter with multiple quotes or just not feeling tired and lazy, lol, and remember/play with how to do it, I would list Dman, Indiana and Vanimal here. ALL great posts. And I HATE playing the "what if I was a player in this situation" game because it's a ridiculous exercise.

BUT, here I go. First,  I see no way Buxton is traded NOW while recovering from a broken hand, I think we can all agree on that. Secondly,  I absolutely agree he and his agents would LOVE for him to prove himself over a full season, or at least close to one. Third, NOBODY can deny the talent and potential.  But FOURTH, NOBODY can deny the injury and missed time factor. 

I can absolutely see how Buxton and his agents would bet on a healthy and productive, maybe amazing,  2022 season. And the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc just line up to sign him to a 6yr $180M deal. 

But let's be honest for a moment. As crazy as the $ still is for TOP talent, would any team even with deep pockets, put that kind of $ on the line for ONE season? Or more to the point, only the SECOND season where he played more than 120 games? IDK, maybe someone would.

But then I am FORCED to put myself in Buck's position, as I grudgingly stated. The Twins offer me say $15-18M with incentives that can bring me up to $20-22M and maybe $25M after year 3. But they offer me an opt out at 30-31yo where I am still young enough to sign a larger deal IF I have in fact suddenly found better luck/health and I'm ready to roll! I have BANKED for myself and my family for 2-3yrs even if my injury history persists. And if it doesn't, I have the option of taking the rest of my deal with the Twins, re-negotating, or choosing the FA route. How do the Twins or Buxton lose on something like this?

I HATE playing GM or player roles, but I did it.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I am not sure how you could possibly believe this is true.  Donaldson and Polanco are $26M.  What about Berrios /Maeda/Rodgers/Duffy/Kepler/Buxton/Sano and Garver?  I come up with $93M with arbitration estimates and an assumption of first and 2nd year players getting an increase to $600K.  My guess it's probably closer to $700K.  They could get a very good SP and a SS.  The rest would have to be filled by prospects.  However, it probably would not be financially feasible to retain any of Berrios/Buxton/Rodgers after 2022.  So, it would be an all-in for 22 play.

 

Because I'm assuming if the Twins trade Donaldson, Berrios, Rogers and Buxton, and then don't pick up the option for Colombe, they won't be paying Donaldson, Berrios, Rogers, Buxton or Colombe. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/2022/

On the books currently for 2022: $52MM. Less Donaldson & Colombe = $26MM (includes Sano, Kepler, Maeda, Polanco, Dobnak). I eyeballed the $14MM figure. Garver, Duffey & Robles are the only other players we have control over currently making more than $1MM and performance or injury will keep all three of them from getting huge raises. If it winds up being $20MM instead of $14MM, I don't think the difference is relevant to my point, though.

[TheLeviathan]

28 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree six is really unlikely but I think a lot depends on Byron. I could easily see him taking one year if no one offers more than four. 

I think one year is his most likely deal.  A fat one year contract with some GM hoping to ride a lucky year of health to value.

I don't think any GM who wants to retain their job gives him more than three years.  Once you start getting past that point contracts can look like an albatross.  Especially when the known track record is as bad as it is.

[mike8791]

Ken Rosenthal reported last nite in the Athletic that the Twins have offered Buxton a $70MM contract with incentives.  Length of contract was not mentioned.  Furthermore, Rosenthal's sources indicated Twins FO wants resolution by trade deadline.  Conclusion: Buxton will likely be traded if no resolution.

My two cents:  am happy Twins FO is being proactive here.  It is the right course to take with Bux, given the retool/reload in the offing.  But this offer seems too low, despite his injury history.  Of course, a smart offer should include substantial incentives for games played.  Buxton should be able to make at least $20MM/yr depending on games played.  Maybe this is a 3 year offer?  Who knows at this point.

[roger]

Lots of comments about the Twins making lots of trades over the next two weeks.  I agree that we are likely to see some trades.  I suspect, however, that the number of trades is going to be less than most expect...although there may be a big one.  For that reason, I suspect many of us are going to be both surprised and disappointed come August 1.

[prouster]

Not sure if this is the right thread, but here goes:

Ken Rosenthal reported this morning that the Twins have made Buxton an offer north of $70 million with escalators built in. It’s not clear what those escalators are or how long the offer would extend him. Per Rosenthal, the team plans on trading Buxton if he doesn’t sign. That could be before the deadline or in the coming offseason. 

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think one year is his most likely deal.  A fat one year contract with some GM hoping to ride a lucky year of health to value.

I don't think any GM who wants to retain their job gives him more than three years.  Once you start getting past that point contracts can look like an albatross.  Especially when the known track record is as bad as it is.

If the reported base amount ($70M) is remotely correct, it's probably a 5 year incentive heavy deal, it's definitely not a 1 year deal.  Why would he sign a 1 year extension.  He would be much better off to hope he can stay relatively healthy next season and get a nice offer elsewhere.  It will be interesting to see if this comes to fruition.  He is an elite player and our W/L with and without him can't be denied.  We also have nothing in the pipeline that could come anywhere near replacing him unless Lewis were to end up in CF.  Not exactly sure how next year gets pieced together but after 2022, I hope for an infield of Kirilloff/Polanco/Lewis/Miranda and an outfield of Kepler/Buxton Larnach for a few years.