Twins Rookie Duo Impresses While Other Teams' Top Prospects Struggle

[Cody Christie]

Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach compiled notable first half performances especially considering there was no minor league season last year. What’s even more impressive is when you compare them to other top prospects.

In 2020’s aftermath, organizations are going to attempt to get their prospects back on track to eventually have big-league success. Missing all the 2020 season forced teams to get creative with plans for prospect development as many players were relegated to home workout plans. Minnesota was lucky enough to have room at their alternate site for top prospects like Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach and they have reaped the benefits so far this season.

Kirilloff struggled this spring and was left off the Opening Day roster, but he has put together some strong numbers since the Twins called him up. He ended the first half with a .765 OPS and a 113 OPS+ including 20 extra-base hits. Larnach isn’t that far behind as he has compiled a .755 OPS and a 113 OPS+ with 16 extra-base hits. While these players have succeeded, other top prospects have struggled so far in their first taste of the big leagues.

Tampa’s Wander Franco entered the season as baseball’s consensus top prospect, but things haven’t been easy for him so far. In his first 15 games, he has hit .197/.258/.328 and combined for a 67 OPS+. He just turned 20-years old in March so there is plenty of time for him to find his groove. Tampa likely hopes he finds it sooner rather than later as they are part of a tight race in the AL East.

Seattle’s Jarred Kelenic started the year ranked as baseball’s number four prospect by Baseball America and MLB.com. He got 23 games under his belt and the results were bad enough that Seattle sent him back to Triple-A. He hit .096/.185/.193 with 26 strikeouts in 83 at-bats. He is still part of the long-term plan in Seattle and his bat seems to be getting back on track in the minors.

Atlanta’s Cristian Pache ranked as a top-20 prospect by all three national top-100 lists. But like Franco and Kelenic, he has struggled to find his stroke in the majors. In 22 games, he has hit .111/.152/.206 with 25 strikeouts in 63 at-bats. Ronald Acuna’s season ending injury might allow him to get some more at-bats as the season progresses, but he there are some obvious areas of improvement.

The 2021 season has been dreadful for the Twins as well as some of baseball’s top prospects. Thankfully, Kirilloff and Larnach have been forced into some situations that will be learning experiences moving forward. Even with some recent struggles, Larnach has been consistently hitting in the middle of the line-up. Kirilloff has come up with some big hits and important defensive plays. It’s a small positive in the middle of a terrible Twins campaign.

Franco, Kelenic, and Pache may all be better players than Minnesota’s duo, but it’s clear that Kirilloff and Larnach have more than lived up to their scouting reports in the season’s first half. Now they need to continue to make adjustments to stay ahead of the rest of baseball’s top prospects.

What have your impressions been of Minnesota’s rookie duo? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

View full article

[Dman]

I like what both prospects have been doing but the player the Twins left unprotected Baddoo is doing better than both of them right now.  Imagine if they would have protected him and with what Miranda is doing they could have been in even better shape.

[Danchat]

This has been a rough year for hitters, so seeing top prospects struggle shouldn't be a huge surprise. It's nice to see Kirilloff and Larnach putting up good numbers, and hopefully they can continue improving through the second half so that they can make themselves fixtures in the lineup.

[DocBauer]

Agreed. But, love ya dude, at some point we all just have to drop the Badoo angst. I hope the best for the kid, I really do. And maybe he will continue to excel and maybe he will bottom out. Maybe he's out "payment" for receiving Santana as a rule 5, traded for, balancing act in the scheme of the cosmos. But we need to move on.

IF this was a past Twins team coming off a 90-100 loss season, they may have protected him. But an A level ball player with missed time is just not going to be protected on the 40 man for a contending team with players ahead of him in the system. Weird stuff just happens! 

And I know you were only making a simple comment, but as an organization and fan base, I really hope we can just let this one go.

Kirilloff and Larnach are here to stay. They both impress the hell out of me with their approach, despite being rookies, Larnach being pressed in to full time duty earlier than expected maybe more so. And AK has been playing and producing with a wrist that needs rest and treatment.

These 2 guys are here to stay and only going to get better. We can take that away from a disappointing 2021. 

I was concerned that Jeffers 2020 was going to come back and bite him, It hasn but only because he's still so young. We can all see the potential. In a lost season, everything he's doing and gaining and learning will help his future. I feel bad for Rortvedt at this point and hope be will take what he's experiencing right now and use it to grow when he's sent down when Garver comes back.

The same for Celistino. He's been pressed in to duty AFTER Cave, Kepler, Refsnyder and even Garlick taking turns in CF. And now Gordon has been learning CF on the fly.

Not going off topic, just extrapolating how a lost season can bring value of experience to AK and Larnach and others. And I've mentioned those who could and should benefit going forward, (keep Gordon playing for goodness sake)!

But you also mentioned Miranda. Even though he's not part of the OP, sorry Cody, we just can't ignore what he's doing. From every report we've ever heard and listened to, it was only about him finding his power to go along with his approach and potential defense and versatility as a good athlete to establish himself. He's doing that now.

Again, not trying to steal the OP. What the Twins OF needs is a quality, reliable RH bat to work with Larnach, Kepler and Kirilloff....who will also play 1B....though I just don't know right now who that will be.

IF Donaldson is traded, Arraez is the first guy to fill in. But in this lost season, there will be an open 40 man spot for Miranda to continue to step forward. There will be growing pains as there have been for Kirilloff and Larnach, but at some point you also have to just promote and "run with it" in regard to a top prospect. 

[HrbieFan]

But, bighat that posts here says that Trevor isn't any good because he has a high SO ratio after 2 months in the majors.

 

Sidenote to the site owners. These pop up ads while you are trying to type a reply is annoying AF! Can you offer a pay option to avoid this crap? No one pays attention to these ads or clicks on them on purpose. SMH 

[Rosterman]

Be a shame if Baddoo would win rookie of the year. But as said above, there was little that would make me 40-man him considering the pecking order of outfielders ahead of him, at the time, in the minors. Kudos to Larnach and Kirilloff for running with the opportunity and working their butts off, shades of Kepler in his beginning years!

[h2oface]

Well, I am impressed by the Duo, but not getting starry eyed, and neither is anyone else, it seems, that is not a Twins' fan. I guess if you cherry pick the ones that are not doing so well, and ignore those that are, they look better in that light. The second half of the season will be the test....
https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/07/06/mlb-rookie-of-the-year-race-the-opener

And no reason to "just let go" of the recent gaffs, like Baddoo and Ynoa, that people who are paid to get it right instead of wrong are responsible for. Accountability is key to a successful Organization, especially when you use that spot to pick up released players like we saw this off season, some which are already gone, and some which we still have and still are .... well.... not helping. It is not an easy job, and only one Team is ultimately successful each year. But no reason to pretend it didn't happen, especially since it was just a couple of months ago, and it still hurts.

[twinstalker]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

But, bighat that posts here says that Trevor isn't any good because he has a high SO ratio after 2 months in the majors.

 

Sidenote to the site owners. These pop up ads while you are trying to type a reply is annoying AF! Can you offer a pay option to avoid this crap? No one pays attention to these ads or clicks on them on purpose. SMH 

Larnach's k rate is a bit troubling and caps his production.  Comparing the seasons of these two guys to other prospects 3 and 4 years younger than them seems careless.  Larnach isn't close to the names mentioned.  Kirilloff should keep pace with them once his wrist gets fixed.

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, h2oface said:

Well, I am impressed by the Duo, but not getting starry eyed, and neither is anyone else, it seems, that is not a Twins' fan. I guess if you cherry pick the ones that are not doing so well, and ignore those that are, they look better in that light. The second half of the season will be the test....
https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/07/06/mlb-rookie-of-the-year-race-the-opener

And no reason to "just let go" of the recent gaffs, like Baddoo and Ynoa, that people who are paid to get it right instead of wrong are responsible for. Accountability is key to a successful Organization, especially when you use that spot to pick up released players like we saw this off season, some which are already gone, and some which we still have and still are .... well.... not helping. It is not an easy job, and only one Team is ultimately successful each year. But no reason to pretend it didn't happen, especially since it was just a couple of months ago, and it still hurts.

It’s the player’s job to get hits but they don’t bat 1000.  Same is true for any FO so to expect perfection and complain when it’s not achieved is to complain about the inevitable.  The Twins did EXACTLY what fans clamor for them to do.  They traded prospects for established player.  In the case a Ynoa, the prospect was an A ball lottery ticket and the move was supported at the time.  Do, I need to point out the other teams “people who are paid to get it right”.  You can’t ask they trade for established players and expect that we never give up players who become productive MLB players. It’s also not as if they gave up Tattis Jr.

They took a calculated risk with Baddoo.  Who would have expected a position player with his history to be taken?  What is a reasonable risk because there are always going to be players exposed we don’t want to lose.  If you look at this situation and say they should have known, we will just have to disagree.  Then, you also need to conclude they should have expected him to stick despite not playing last year and modest Milb experience/production.  Sports fans love to complain.  Some more so than others.

 

[h2oface]

49 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Sports fans love to complain.  Some more so than others.

Some like to use generalities to complain about others being critical, and call it complaining, and complain about that, and make it about who they think is the complainer, instead of just presenting their own ideas and moving on. How did you feel about the original post and subject of the thread, and how Kirilloff and Larnach are doing? 

Ynoa was traded for Jaime Garcia, who I would never want, ever, and many didn't as I remember (but I can't speak for others and include them in a group speak, which is never fair - but I do remember hearing the groaning, even though it was just typing), and it turns out, a couple days later, that the Twins didn't want him either. But the Braves knew who they wanted, and apparently, why, and got him. Impressive vision. But, "It is not an easy job, and only one Team is ultimately successful each year."

 

[MMMordabito]

What about Dylan Carlson, Jazz Chisholm and Ian Anderson? This is click-bait.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Some like to use generalities to complain about others being critical, and call it complaining, and complain about that, and make it about who they think is the complainer, instead of just presenting their own ideas and moving on. How did you feel about the original post and subject of the thread, and how Kirilloff and Larnach are doing? 

Ynoa was traded for Jaime Garcia, who I would never want, ever, and many didn't as I remember (but I can't speak for others and include them in a group speak, which is never fair - but I do remember hearing the groaning, even though it was just typing), and it turns out, a couple days later, that the Twins didn't want him either. But the Braves knew who they wanted, and apparently, why, and got him. Impressive vision. But, "It is not an easy job, and only one Team is ultimately successful each year."

 

I have no problem with being critical when warranted.  Complaining for the sake of complaining is tedious.  You like to complain about the stupidity of management and do so at every available opportunity regardless of actual merit.

Where Larnach and Kirilloff are concerned, they have barely eclipsed a couple hundred ABs.  They look promising but at this point we are all relatively uniformed to draw any conclusions.  Kirilloff looks like he is better prepared but Larnach was rushed because of multiple injuries.  That's about as much as I am prepared to conclude.

[Squirrel]

Please keep your comments on topic. The article writer has asked:

"What have your impressions been of Minnesota’s rookie duo? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion."

It is not about what you think of the FO with concerns to Baddoo and Ynoa.

[MN_ExPat]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

They took a calculated risk with Baddoo.  Who would have expected a position player with his history to be taken?  What is a reasonable risk because there are always going to be players exposed we don’t want to lose.  If you look at this situation and say they should have known, we will just have to disagree.  Then, you also need to conclude they should have expected him to stick despite not playing last year and modest Milb experience/production.  Sports fans love to complain.  Some more so than others.

 

I can speak to my career field with a pretty good degree of authority but Front Office major league baseball decisions.... ehhhh, not so much.  Even with that established though, the FO made 100% the right decision in not protecting Baddoo in my opinion. 

A team only has the 40 slots that they can protect and that often leaves hard choices to make.  However I would think that Baddoo wasn't a hard choice in that he had no track record in MiLB and was buried on the depth chart for the Twins.  Was it a gamble? Yes of course it was, but one that I would make 100 out of 100 times and probably so would 90% of the rest of the league.

We also have to look at who took a flyer on him, the Detroit Tigers.  The major league roster was seriously depleted of front line talent and their minor system was exhausted.  Why wouldn't they take a shot at him, they had absolutely nothing to loose (same with Tyler Wells and Baltimore).

[chpettit19]

I think cherry picking 3 guys struggling while ignoring the rookies having great years (I know they were 3 big time prospects, although Pache is a glove first CFer and not expected to hit like AK) isn't what I've grown to expect from this site, but I'm happy to see the Twins duo succeeding. I'd like to know what is behind the decision to put Larnach in the 3 hole (he was hitting much better before a recent ice cold streak, granted) instead of Kirilloff. Kirilloff just appears to have the better ability to put the ball in play when needed to drive in the run at this point in their careers. Larnach is the better slugger right now I think, but wouldn't say he's the better overall hitter. Will be interesting to see if Rocco flips them and starts hitting AK in the 3 spot with Larnach in the 5 (or 7 if Kepler keeps mashing out of the break).

Either way it's quite encouraging to see them both have early success. Larnach is at his first "adjust to the adjustments" point and it'll be really fun watching him try to make those adjustments in the second half. I hope the Twins aren't tempted to send him down when Cave comes back. Letting Larnach work through his struggles at the MLB level seems like the best outcome from this lost season. His career will be determined by how well he adjusts to the adjustments and getting that started now is a great opportunity for him.

[roger]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Agreed. But, love ya dude, at some point we all just have to drop the Badoo angst. I hope the best for the kid, I really do. And maybe he will continue to excel and maybe he will bottom out. Maybe he's out "payment" for receiving Santana as a rule 5, traded for, balancing act in the scheme of the cosmos. But we need to move on.

IF this was a past Twins team coming off a 90-100 loss season, they may have protected him. But an A level ball player with missed time is just not going to be protected on the 40 man for a contending team with players ahead of him in the system. Weird stuff just happens! 

And I know you were only making a simple comment, but as an organization and fan base, I really hope we can just let this one go.

Kirilloff and Larnach are here to stay. They both impress the hell out of me with their approach, despite being rookies, Larnach being pressed in to full time duty earlier than expected maybe more so. And AK has been playing and producing with a wrist that needs rest and treatment.

These 2 guys are here to stay and only going to get better. We can take that away from a disappointing 2021. 

I was concerned that Jeffers 2020 was going to come back and bite him, It hasn but only because he's still so young. We can all see the potential. In a lost season, everything he's doing and gaining and learning will help his future. I feel bad for Rortvedt at this point and hope be will take what he's experiencing right now and use it to grow when he's sent down when Garver comes back.

The same for Celistino. He's been pressed in to duty AFTER Cave, Kepler, Refsnyder and even Garlick taking turns in CF. And now Gordon has been learning CF on the fly.

Not going off topic, just extrapolating how a lost season can bring value of experience to AK and Larnach and others. And I've mentioned those who could and should benefit going forward, (keep Gordon playing for goodness sake)!

But you also mentioned Miranda. Even though he's not part of the OP, sorry Cody, we just can't ignore what he's doing. From every report we've ever heard and listened to, it was only about him finding his power to go along with his approach and potential defense and versatility as a good athlete to establish himself. He's doing that now.

Again, not trying to steal the OP. What the Twins OF needs is a quality, reliable RH bat to work with Larnach, Kepler and Kirilloff....who will also play 1B....though I just don't know right now who that will be.

IF Donaldson is traded, Arraez is the first guy to fill in. But in this lost season, there will be an open 40 man spot for Miranda to continue to step forward. There will be growing pains as there have been for Kirilloff and Larnach, but at some point you also have to just promote and "run with it" in regard to a top prospect. 

Love your comments, Doc.

And believe that this duo is going to go on to be great MLB hitters.  Defensively, Larnach in left and Kirilloff at first will be serviceable.  Also agree that Rortvedt and Celestino are getting a great opportunity to fail with their bats.  When they are returned to AAA later this year and hopefully the start to next, they will take those failures and work to be solid hitters when they return.  In both cases, their defense combined with an average bat should keep them with the Twins long-term.

Add Miranda, and the Twins have a very nice group of young guys to blend in with a couple of the last 'core' to put them in the hunt next year and beyond.  None are pitchers and that is a huge problem, but the everyday lineup is going to be fine.

[Major League Ready]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Either way it's quite encouraging to see them both have early success. Larnach is at his first "adjust to the adjustments" point and it'll be really fun watching him try to make those adjustments in the second half. I hope the Twins aren't tempted to send him down when Cave comes back. Letting Larnach work through his struggles at the MLB level seems like the best outcome from this lost season. His career will be determined by how well he adjusts to the adjustments and getting that started now is a great opportunity for him.

I would hope they would just DFA Cave if they can't find a trade partner.  Garlick's splits against LH pitching make him more valuable.  I would also keep Refsnyder or Gordon at the MLB level instead of Cave.  They are more likely to be part of the solution/future.  However, it might make sense to send Gordon to get some CF experience if they think he can become a decent CF backup.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

I would hope they would just DFA Cave if they can't find a trade partner.  Garlick's splits against LH pitching make him more valuable.  I would also keep Refsnyder or Gordon at the MLB level instead of Cave.  They are more likely to be part of the solution/future.  However, it might make sense to send Gordon to get some CF experience if they think he can become a decent CF backup.

Agreed. I should've just said "other OFers come back" cuz it's more than just Cave, but he's the left handed bat that the FO or Rocco or whoever seems to really believe in. I don't know a single fan who would be sad to see him go, but teams have done crazier things than keep a guy like Cave in the majors and sending a rookie back to AAA. I just don't think Larnach has anything left to work on in AAA. I think his struggles need to be with the Twins and this is the pitching he needs to adjust to so really just saying I hope he stays in an everyday role at the ML level for the rest of 2021 no matter what results he may have (I tend to think he'll continue to have his ups and downs, but hopefully more ups than downs).

[In My La Z boy]

After what we've been through I do not believe we'll be DFA'ing any outfielders. Cave will go on a re-hab assignment, and we'll see what happens. No way Larnach goes back down. He is here to stay. Wade is having a great rookie year. I just don't think we give any more guys away - and certainly not before the trade deadline. 

[Major League Ready]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Agreed. I should've just said "other OFers come back" cuz it's more than just Cave, but he's the left handed bat that the FO or Rocco or whoever seems to really believe in. I don't know a single fan who would be sad to see him go, but teams have done crazier things than keep a guy like Cave in the majors and sending a rookie back to AAA. I just don't think Larnach has anything left to work on in AAA. I think his struggles need to be with the Twins and this is the pitching he needs to adjust to so really just saying I hope he stays in an everyday role at the ML level for the rest of 2021 no matter what results he may have (I tend to think he'll continue to have his ups and downs, but hopefully more ups than downs).

It would be great if he adapts to the adjustments the league has made which is to throw him breaking stuff.  He has only played 3 games at AAA where he would have seen better breaking balls and was rushed a bit into service.  My only worry is setting a player back by shattering their confidence.  I think there are pros and cons with putting a player in this position if they re not truly ready.  I would rather weatch games with him playing but I don't want to mess up his development.  

There is also value in further evaluation of Garlick and Refsntder.  In Garlick's case, he has proven himself at AAA.  Refsnyder is just a really nice surprise.  It sure would be nice for us to have a Max Muncy type of find.  Anyway, sending Larnach down for a little while might be a way to maximize our assets but there is more than one way to skin this cat.  Larnach having the most ceiling, the team should take care of him first.  I guess the could option Garlick.  He has an option left Refsnyder is out of options.

[Otto von Ballpark]

13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

There is also value in further evaluation of Garlick and Refsntder.  In Garlick's case, he has proven himself at AAA.  Refsnyder is just a really nice surprise.  It sure would be nice for us to have a Max Muncy type of find.

I think Garlick's season might be done. Last I heard, they were still contemplating surgery. Refsynder is closer to returning.

Still, they are 30 or almost 30 year old RH outfielders, which limits their potential value pretty severely. (Refsynder has pretty much stopped playing infield -- only 1 game, 7 innings at any level since 2017.)

By comparison, Max Muncy was a 27 year old LHB still active at 2B/3B when the Dodgers started playing him every day in MLB. (And Muncy is still only 30, about 7 months older than Refsynder.)

 

[umterp23]

AK and TL are doing what I thought they would.  Have some very good at bats, results some good and then some at bats that they look overwhelmed.  Welcome to the Show and they are holding their own.  They are both a solution for the long term vs Cave who shouldn't be.  Not worried that they could be sent down, but weirder things have happened.  If they were to be sent down, it would have to be due to not getting consistent at bats, but they are doing that here, so can't use that as the reasoning.  Gordon and Celestino being sent down, you can use that reason as they aren't playing that much.  Still think Garver being active, he will get more playing time at DH than catcher for health concerns to close out the year.  I don't think he starts every other day unless there really is no concern for health being behind the plate. Rort needs to get at bats at AAA and play everyday like they did with Jeffers in May at AAA.  

[mikelink45]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Agreed. But, love ya dude, at some point we all just have to drop the Badoo angst. I hope the best for the kid, I really do. And maybe he will continue to excel and maybe he will bottom out. Maybe he's out "payment" for receiving Santana as a rule 5, traded for, balancing act in the scheme of the cosmos. But we need to move on.

IF this was a past Twins team coming off a 90-100 loss season, they may have protected him. But an A level ball player with missed time is just not going to be protected on the 40 man for a contending team with players ahead of him in the system. Weird stuff just happens! 

And I know you were only making a simple comment, but as an organization and fan base, I really hope we can just let this one go.

Kirilloff and Larnach are here to stay. They both impress the hell out of me with their approach, despite being rookies, Larnach being pressed in to full time duty earlier than expected maybe more so. And AK has been playing and producing with a wrist that needs rest and treatment.

These 2 guys are here to stay and only going to get better. We can take that away from a disappointing 2021. 

I was concerned that Jeffers 2020 was going to come back and bite him, It hasn but only because he's still so young. We can all see the potential. In a lost season, everything he's doing and gaining and learning will help his future. I feel bad for Rortvedt at this point and hope be will take what he's experiencing right now and use it to grow when he's sent down when Garver comes back.

The same for Celistino. He's been pressed in to duty AFTER Cave, Kepler, Refsnyder and even Garlick taking turns in CF. And now Gordon has been learning CF on the fly.

Not going off topic, just extrapolating how a lost season can bring value of experience to AK and Larnach and others. And I've mentioned those who could and should benefit going forward, (keep Gordon playing for goodness sake)!

But you also mentioned Miranda. Even though he's not part of the OP, sorry Cody, we just can't ignore what he's doing. From every report we've ever heard and listened to, it was only about him finding his power to go along with his approach and potential defense and versatility as a good athlete to establish himself. He's doing that now.

Again, not trying to steal the OP. What the Twins OF needs is a quality, reliable RH bat to work with Larnach, Kepler and Kirilloff....who will also play 1B....though I just don't know right now who that will be.

IF Donaldson is traded, Arraez is the first guy to fill in. But in this lost season, there will be an open 40 man spot for Miranda to continue to step forward. There will be growing pains as there have been for Kirilloff and Larnach, but at some point you also have to just promote and "run with it" in regard to a top prospect. 

Sorry, but we never let go of Ortiz, why would we let go of Baddoo?  It is too good of a story.

 

[mikelink45]

The future is not Refsnyder, Garlick or Cave - putting them back on the roster serves no purpose.  They might all be great guys, but this season is not about winning an extra game, but rather for preparing for 2022 and beyond. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

It would be great if he adapts to the adjustments the league has made which is to throw him breaking stuff.  He has only played 3 games at AAA where he would have seen better breaking balls and was rushed a bit into service.  My only worry is setting a player back by shattering their confidence.  I think there are pros and cons with putting a player in this position if they re not truly ready.  I would rather weatch games with him playing but I don't want to mess up his development.  

There is also value in further evaluation of Garlick and Refsntder.  In Garlick's case, he has proven himself at AAA.  Refsnyder is just a really nice surprise.  It sure would be nice for us to have a Max Muncy type of find.  Anyway, sending Larnach down for a little while might be a way to maximize our assets but there is more than one way to skin this cat.  Larnach having the most ceiling, the team should take care of him first.  I guess the could option Garlick.  He has an option left Refsnyder is out of options.

Totally with you on shattering confidence and all that. I've been on here many times pushing back on the idea the Twins, or any team, should just call a prospect up "to see what they have." That's not how prospects should be managed. I'd hope the Twins know Larnach well enough to know how he will/can handle the current struggles. He'd certainly see better controlled breaking stuff in AAA than he did in AA, but the AAA guys still don't control it like the guys in MLB and I don't know that seeing 5 well placed breaking balls a week in AAA is as useful as seeing 25 a week in the majors (numbers obviously completely made up with no reason for those specific numbers).

I see big league success as a hitter as being able to adjust to what major league pitchers can do to you to get you out. Sure, he can go to the minors and work on closing holes in his swing in the cage, but if the pitchers can't consistently hit their spots (why most of them are in AAA and not the majors) then the in game reps aren't helping fix the struggle. I just see him as to the point in his career where the real test is being able to adjust to major league pitching and he has to face major league pitching to do that. Don't think it's a tragedy if they send him down, but my read (with far less info or baseball knowledge than the Twins have) is that facing ML pitching is what he needs.

As for Refsnyder and Garlick, I think they're useful players, but they'd play no part in my decision making on Larnach. My Larnach decision would be based on what's best for him and those 2 would fight over whatever spots are left on the roster. With the season being lost I'm more concerned about getting the young guys who will be part of the core moving forward ready for the future. Not saying either of the 30ish year olds can't be on the team next year, but I view them as complimentary players. If one hits and forces their way into the lineup next year, great, but my plan can't be based around the hope that one of them turns into Joey Bats and starts mashing at 29 or 30. Odds just aren't far enough in their favor for that.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Totally with you on shattering confidence and all that. I've been on here many times pushing back on the idea the Twins, or any team, should just call a prospect up "to see what they have." That's not how prospects should be managed. I'd hope the Twins know Larnach well enough to know how he will/can handle the current struggles. He'd certainly see better controlled breaking stuff in AAA than he did in AA, but the AAA guys still don't control it like the guys in MLB and I don't know that seeing 5 well placed breaking balls a week in AAA is as useful as seeing 25 a week in the majors (numbers obviously completely made up with no reason for those specific numbers).

I see big league success as a hitter as being able to adjust to what major league pitchers can do to you to get you out. Sure, he can go to the minors and work on closing holes in his swing in the cage, but if the pitchers can't consistently hit their spots (why most of them are in AAA and not the majors) then the in game reps aren't helping fix the struggle. I just see him as to the point in his career where the real test is being able to adjust to major league pitching and he has to face major league pitching to do that. Don't think it's a tragedy if they send him down, but my read (with far less info or baseball knowledge than the Twins have) is that facing ML pitching is what he needs.

As for Refsnyder and Garlick, I think they're useful players, but they'd play no part in my decision making on Larnach. My Larnach decision would be based on what's best for him and those 2 would fight over whatever spots are left on the roster. With the season being lost I'm more concerned about getting the young guys who will be part of the core moving forward ready for the future. Not saying either of the 30ish year olds can't be on the team next year, but I view them as complimentary players. If one hits and forces their way into the lineup next year, great, but my plan can't be based around the hope that one of them turns into Joey Bats and starts mashing at 29 or 30. Odds just aren't far enough in their favor for that.

OK.  I am convinced.  Actually, I was never of a mindset contrary to what you have been saying.  I really just want to believe Refsnyder is breaking out and we are the beneficiaries.  Of course, that's not exactly sound thinking giving he has had 62 PAs.  He has just been so darn good I want to believe in him and give him a shot.

[bighat]

15 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

But, bighat that posts here says that Trevor isn't any good because he has a high SO ratio after 2 months in the majors.

 

I don't say "he's not any good" but I must admit I'm confused at everyone here who is speaking about Trevor Larnach like he's the next Justin Morneau or something.

You know which rookies impressed me? Aaron Judge. Pete Alonso. Yordan Alvarez. Ronald Acuna. Cody Bellinger. Heck even our own Luis Arraez. Look up those guys' rookie stats. Those guys had their fans excited because they knew they had difference makers. 

I'm way more excited about Kirilloff. I like Larnach but I don't think he's ready and I don't think running him out there every day to strike out 4 times (which he's done three times in the past 12 days) is helping.

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

OK.  I am convinced.  Actually, I was never of a mindset contrary to what you have been saying.  I really just want to believe Refsnyder is breaking out and we are the beneficiaries.  Of course, that's not exactly sound thinking giving he has had 62 PAs.  He has just been so darn good I want to believe in him and give him a shot.

He very well may be breaking out. He made some changes to his swing before the year so it's possible he's unlocked something. Chances are just higher that Larnach has a future with the Twins than Refsnyder does so Larnach would be the one I base my decisions on before Refsnyder. It sure would be nice if Refsnyder is a useful piece for next year, too, though! Certainly not suggesting we give up on him or Garlick, just wouldn't be priorities in my decision making. The more guys we can get established the better as far as I'm concerned!

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, bighat said:

I don't say "he's not any good" but I must admit I'm confused at everyone here who is speaking about Trevor Larnach like he's the next Justin Morneau or something.

You know which rookies impressed me? Aaron Judge. Pete Alonso. Yordan Alvarez. Ronald Acuna. Cody Bellinger. Heck even our own Luis Arraez. Look up those guys' rookie stats. Those guys had their fans excited because they knew they had difference makers. 

I'm way more excited about Kirilloff. I like Larnach but I don't think he's ready and I don't think running him out there every day to strike out 4 times (which he's done three times in the past 12 days) is helping.

Strikeouts have been pretty outrageous for sure. But he's also above average in BB% (59th percentile). And way above average in Barrel % (82nd percentile). Hard hit % is 55th percentile. Avg Exit Velo is 62%. The 2nd percentile K% is brutal, but he's certainly doing quite a bit to counterbalance that (113 OPS+ and 111 wRC+ would say he's been above average even with the brutal K numbers).

If your standard for excitement for a rookie is immediate superstar I feel like you're going to live an awfully depressing life as a baseball fan. And for the record Justin Morneau was not good as a rookie. Larnach is outperforming him in every way beyond K% in only a 14 game difference in sample size. So that's a weird comp to make.

[Thebigalguy]

4 game win streak. Rookies part of it. Don’t count these guys out yet.