The Twins (Still) Have a Velocity Problem

[Tom Froemming]

Change is slow, apparently. The Minnesota Twins have had a reputation of building soft-tossing pitching staffs for decades. Unfortunately, this issue still plagues the 2021 version of the club.

I talked about velocity in the video below, starting at Josh Winder’s Futures Game outing that led me down this trail and ending with a stat that the team ranks dead last in the league in.

It’s worth pointing out that throwing hard doesn’t guarantee success. Guys like Kyle Hendricks, Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Wade Miley rarely (if ever) crack 90 mph and they’re still effective starting pitchers. There are also flamethrowers who stink at pitching. On average, however, lower-velo pitches are hit and hit harder more often.

If it seems like the Twins are throwing harder these days, you’re right. Unfortunately, they’re just not advancing enough to keep pace with the rest of the league. 

The Twins have had 23 pitchers appear for them in 2021 (excluding Willians Astudillo’s three innings) and just five of them have thrown a pitch in excess of 96 mph. Twins pitchers have combined to hit that benchmark a grand total of 595 times. There are eight pitchers who’ve eclipsed that mark all on their own.

Pitches 96+ mph
Zack Wheeler	960
Sandy Alcantara	784
Brandon Woodruff	763
Gerrit Cole	760
Luis Castillo	730
Jacob deGrom	697
Frankie Montas	649
Nathan Eovaldi	610
Minnesota Twins	595

Taking a look at the team level, it’s pretty striking how much the Twins and White Sox are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of pitcher velocity. The vast majority of Chicago pitchers have reached 96 mph and they’ve tallied more than four times as many 96+ mph pitches than the Twins this year.

	Twins	White Sox
Pitchers	23	19
# to 96+ mph	5	15
% to 96 mph	21.7%	78.9%
Pitches	13,206	13,048
# 96+ mph	595	2,527
% 96+ mph	4.5%	19.4%

Not surprisingly, the Twins rank near the bottom of the league in several pitching categories. They’re 21st in K%, 24th in swinging-strike rate and 27th in FIP. Meanwhile, the White Sox are second, first and fourth in those categories.

Help is on the way ... hopefully. In addition to Winder, who I mentioned earlier, the Twins also have hard-throwers like Jhoan Duran and Matt Canterino (among others) in the minors. They took triple-digit teen Chase Petty with their first pick in the draft. He’s years away from contributing to the big club, of course, but I still found it encouraging to see the front office appear to make velocity a priority with that pick.

We won’t have to wait much longer to find out if velo is made a point of emphasis for the Twins at the trade deadline. Here’s hoping they add some gas to the staff.

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

View full article

[mikelink45]

What you did not cover is our Tommy John rate with hard throwers.  Our prospect list is half IL list. 

[Linus]

This has become the most overrated factor ( was going to say crap) in modern baseball. There is so much more to effective pitching but people have one track minds on this topic. Here’s a wild thought: how about pitchers having an idea where they are throwing the ball?

[Twodogs]

This is just my personal belief, but I think real good rotations and staffs have a combination of all types of pitchers.  So the White Sox were brought up, but Dallas Kuechel definitely does not fit that velocity category but he fits into their rotation.  So they have a guy like Giolito, then a Lefty like Rodon, and then you sandwich a soft tossing ground baller in-between them and I feel that with the different looks and different types of pitchers can confuse hitters a little.  I mean they aren't going to be literally confused, it's just that one day you hear up for that velo guy and the next day you got some guy hitting the inside of your bat with junk and the hitters never quite get comfortable.  So as far as the Twins go, Maeda is that soft tosser, and they realistically need a couple of hard throwers to go around him.  So the Twins definitely need some help with the velo guys.  But a team overall don't need to have all velo guys to be good.  I feel they need a combination of all types of pitchers.

 

On another note, I was listening to Dan O'Dowd on MLB channel.  He mentioned when he was a GM they were always going after velo.  But he said often times those velo guys just couldn't find the strike zone.  So he said he had been talking with a lot of GM's and with pitching coaches nowadays they are able to take a guy and add quite a bit of velo with different mechanics and added strength, etc.... That a lot of the times guys who have real good command that don't necessarily throw super hard but show promise to gain velo are often coveted, because it's much harder to teach command, it's a lot t easier to teach velocity.  So you can get a strike thrower who throws 90 and get him to 95 - 97.  But it is really hard to get a guy who throws 100 but can't throw strikes, to learn how to throw strikes.  It was just interesting to listen to him talk about that stuff.  Again, the Twins don't seem to be teaching their pitchers to throw harder in the minors.  So again the Twins are behind, but probably more so in development and not necessarily from not drafting velo guys.  Again just my opinion.

[wsnydes]

Pitching, even with velocity, is an art form.  Good pitchers have the ability to hit their spots when the want/need to and can throw multiple pitches for strikes when they need to.  Velocity helps cover up weakness in the location aspect, but that doesn't make them good at pitching.  Ultimately, pitching is, and always will be, about keeping hitters off balance.  Velocity is just one part of that.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Twodogs said:

This is just my personal belief, but I think real good rotations and staffs have a combination of all types of pitchers.  So the White Sox were brought up, but Dallas Kuechel definitely does not fit that velocity category but he fits into their rotation.  So they have a guy like Giolito, then a Lefty like Rodon, and then you sandwich a soft tossing ground baller in-between them and I feel that with the different looks and different types of pitchers can confuse hitters a little.  I mean they aren't going to be literally confused, it's just that one day you hear up for that velo guy and the next day you got some guy hitting the inside of your bat with junk and the hitters never quite get comfortable.  So as far as the Twins go, Maeda is that soft tosser, and they realistically need a couple of hard throwers to go around him.  So the Twins definitely need some help with the velo guys.  But a team overall don't need to have all velo guys to be good.  I feel they need a combination of all types of pitchers.

 

On another note, I was listening to Dan O'Dowd on MLB channel.  He mentioned when he was a GM they were always going after velo.  But he said often times those velo guys just couldn't find the strike zone.  So he said he had been talking with a lot of GM's and with pitching coaches nowadays they are able to take a guy and add quite a bit of velo with different mechanics and added strength, etc.... That a lot of the times guys who have real good command that don't necessarily throw super hard but show promise to gain velo are often coveted, because it's much harder to teach command, it's a lot t easier to teach velocity.  So you can get a strike thrower who throws 90 and get him to 95 - 97.  But it is really hard to get a guy who throws 100 but can't throw strikes, to learn how to throw strikes.  It was just interesting to listen to him talk about that stuff.  Again, the Twins don't seem to be teaching their pitchers to throw harder in the minors.  So again the Twins are behind, but probably more so in development and not necessarily from not drafting velo guys.  Again just my opinion.

I was listening to an interview with one of the Twins developmental guys.  He mentioned they had a "Velo Camp" and a "Command Camp".  Perhaps someone here knows more about these camps.  Some of our prospects have definitely picked up some velocity.  Ober was high 80s.  Canterino and Winder picked up some velo and I have read Rijo has added a couple MPH.  I suspect there are others.  Anyone know more about these camps.

It would be interesting to see what percentage of SPs exceed 97 with any consistency, especially among higher WAR SPs.  Obviously, the percentage is much higher in BPs.  They just chose a guy largely because he can throw 96+ but how much focus belongs on the ability to throw 97-100 for SPs.  Is this focus better placed on the BP and what practices could aid in indentify and developing high velo BP arms?

[jorgenswest]

How extreme were the 2019 and 2020 staffs?

[h2oface]

Great article, Tom, and awesome info!

[Tom Froemming]

31 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

How extreme were the 2019 and 2020 staffs?

% of pitches 96+ mph the past three years

2021: Twins 4.5, MLB 8.8
2020: Twins 3.8, MLB 7.8
2019: Twins 3.2, MLB 7.4

[h2oface]

1 minute ago, Tom Froemming said:

% of pitches 96+ mph the past three years

2021: Twins 4.5, MLB 8.8
2020: Twins 3.8, MLB 7.8
2019: Twins 3.2, MLB 7.4

2021: Twins 4.5, MLB 8.8 = 4.3 difference
2020: Twins 3.8, MLB 7.8 = 4.0 difference
2019: Twins 3.2, MLB 7.4 = 4.2 difference

Yup. Relatively, basically treading water, even though slightly increased.

[PDX Twin]

When will MLB start the "pitching velocity derby" to go with the home-run derby? 

[Dodecahedron]

Interesting.  This is reminiscent of the Twins years leading up the Total System Failure™.  I saw a graph showing pitches over 96 MPH by team for some year in the early '10s.  The Twins were not only at the bottom of the list, but they were so far below the rest of the league it was like they were playing a completely different sport.  We are talking thousands of pitches below the other teams.

How this started happening again with a different group at the controls is honestly surprising, but it partially explains the product on the field.

[nicksaviking]

11 hours ago, Linus said:

This has become the most overrated factor ( was going to say crap) in modern baseball. There is so much more to effective pitching but people have one track minds on this topic. Here’s a wild thought: how about pitchers having an idea where they are throwing the ball?

I couldn't disagree more. The other teams aren't lacking control just because they are throwing harder, the other teams have found a balance. This is a Twins problem, not a MLB problem.

Missing bats is the most effective way to keep batters from reaching base and missing bats tends to rely on velocity and movement. If the Twins solely rely on movement because they don't have the velocity, they're tying one hand behind their back trying to prevent runs.

I mean I get it, I remember baseball more fondly from when I grew up watching it in the 80's and early 90's when a 15.0 K% was just fine and dandy, but if the other 29 teams aren't going to play baseball games out of sentimental fondness, the Twins are going to find themselves losing a lot of games.

[Major League Ready]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I couldn't disagree more. Missing bats is the most effective way to keep batters from reaching base and missing bats tends to rely on velocity and movement. If the Twins solely rely on movement because they don't have the velocity, they're tying one hand behind their back trying to prevent runs.

I mean I get it, I remember baseball more fondly from when I grew up watching it in the 80's and early 90's when a 15.0 K% was just fine and dandy, but if the other 29 teams aren't going to play baseball games out of sentimental fondness, the Twins are going to find themselves losing a lot of games.

I don't think anyone here or the Twins don't find value in velocity, especially given their 1st round pick.  However, they did pick 26th this year and 27th the year before.  They had the same velocity deficit and still had one of the best W/L records.  I am not sure we can say with certainty that the "Twins are going to find themselves losing a lot of games" if they don't have as many flame throwers.  Also, batters are adjusting to the velocity so will velocity have a diminishing return as hitters adjust?  I would love to have our own Jacob DeGrom but so would just about every other team.  Guys with that velocity and all the other attributes that make pitchers successful are VERY hard to find.  Putting too much weight on that one trait probably does not result in developing a lot of pitching.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't think anyone here or the Twins don't find value in velocity, especially given their 1st round pick.  However, they did pick 26th this year and 27th the year before.  They had the same velocity deficit and still had one of the best W/L records.  I am not sure we can say with certainty that the "Twins are going to find themselves losing a lot of games" if they don't have as many flame throwers.  Also, batters are adjusting to the velocity so will velocity have a diminishing return as hitters adjust?  I would love to have our own Jacob DeGrom but so would just about every other team.  Guys with that velocity and all the other attributes that make pitchers successful are VERY hard to find.  Putting too much weight on that one trait probably does not result in developing a lot of pitching.

Those pitchers are hard to find, but for some reason it's harder for the Twins; most other teams aren't year in and year out struggling with this.

It seems pretty unlikely that there's no correlation between the fact that the Twins have only called up two usable starting pitchers in the last 15 years and the fact that the Twins also struggle to develop velocity.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I couldn't disagree more. The other teams aren't lacking control just because they are throwing harder, the other teams have found a balance. This is a Twins problem, not a MLB problem.

Missing bats is the most effective way to keep batters from reaching base and missing bats tends to rely on velocity and movement. If the Twins solely rely on movement because they don't have the velocity, they're tying one hand behind their back trying to prevent runs.

I mean I get it, I remember baseball more fondly from when I grew up watching it in the 80's and early 90's when a 15.0 K% was just fine and dandy, but if the other 29 teams aren't going to play baseball games out of sentimental fondness, the Twins are going to find themselves losing a lot of games.

Obviously if all things are equal you want someone who throws harder but you can miss bats with movement and location as well. Berrios is a prime example. If he threw 97 instead of 93 he would be slightly better. If he had better command he would be an ace. Jorge Alcala isn’t going to get better by throwing harder he will get better by improving his control. If he doesn’t he won’t be any better than he is right now. 

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, Linus said:

Obviously if all things are equal you want someone who throws harder but you can miss bats with movement and location as well. Berrios is a prime example. If he threw 97 instead of 93 he would be slightly better. If he had better command he would be an ace. Jorge Alcala isn’t going to get better by throwing harder he will get better by improving his control. If he doesn’t he won’t be any better than he is right now. 

That's certainly true, but other teams are doing one of two things that the Twins seem unable to do. They are either taking their Jorge Alcalas and improving their command, or they are finding guys who have ++velocity but still have enough command to be a good pitcher.  

[prouster]

I’d be curious to see if the low raw number of high velocity pitches has to do with usage. Do the Twins throw more breaking and off speed stuff than other teams? That could be a factor. That said, I suspect that even if they throw relatively fewer fastballs, it’s still probably not enough to account for such a stark velo difference from the rest of the league. 

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, prouster said:

I’d be curious to see if the low raw number of high velocity pitches has to do with usage. Do the Twins throw more breaking and off speed stuff than other teams? That could be a factor. That said, I suspect that even if they throw relatively fewer fastballs, it’s still probably not enough to account for such a stark velo difference from the rest of the league. 

Other teams have had BP guys who rely on velocity.  The Twins had guys like Wisler, Romo, and Thielbar among others.  That's going to shape  the numbers.

[Platoon]

So the real question may be HOW can an organization miss out on this staple of baseball importance for basically the entire franchises history? 
It seems that they have always been heavy on bat first players, especially corner guys. There seems, over the years, to be a dearth of two things. High level pitching, and shortstops that this outfit has developed. 
Dare I use the M word? Money. High level pitching costs a lot. An awful lot. I won’t get into the woulda shoulda, but all pitchers aren’t home grown on the velocity lists. And the acquired ones likely were out of our price range. Add the fact that some won’t play in a town where the bright lights don’t shine. 
Lastly, in the past it seeems to be when given a choice between drafting a high velocity pitcher and a hitter of relative potential, the team has opted for the bat. But maybe that’s just my perception? 

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Platoon said:

So the real question may be HOW can an organization miss out on this staple of baseball importance for basically the entire franchises history? 
It seems that they have always been heavy on bat first players, especially corner guys. There seems, over the years, to be a dearth of two things. High level pitching, and shortstops that this outfit has developed. 
Dare I use the M word? Money. High level pitching costs a lot. An awful lot. I won’t get into the woulda shoulda, but all pitchers aren’t home grown on the velocity lists. And the acquired ones likely were out of our price range. Add the fact that some won’t play in a town where the bright lights don’t shine. 
Lastly, in the past it seeems to be when given a choice between drafting a high velocity pitcher and a hitter of relative potential, the team has opted for the bat. But maybe that’s just my perception? 

Right, but those pitchers are homegrown somewhere, just never in Minnesota for some reason.

We need the homegrown top end starting pitchers. Not just because of the money, but because by the time they hit free agency, most of the top end starting pitchers have already peaked. 

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Right, but those pitchers are homegrown somewhere, just never in Minnesota for some reason.

We need the homegrown top end starting pitchers. Not just because of the money, but because by the time they hit free agency, most of the top end starting pitchers have already peaked. 

I'd be happy with some homegrown RPs to start....even that has largely been absent. Especially with this FO. 

It is kind of hard to believe how few even good starters they have developed over the years. There have been exceptions, clearly, but not enough. Hoping that trend starts to change later this year with Winder and others getting their feet wet.

[Dodecahedron]

5 hours ago, Platoon said:

Lastly, in the past it seeems to be when given a choice between drafting a high velocity pitcher and a hitter of relative potential, the team has opted for the bat. But maybe that’s just my perception? 

It might be your perception, yeah.  I don't remember specifics, but I feel like recent years saw quite a few fastball pitchers being drafted.

[Dodecahedron]

13 hours ago, prouster said:

I’d be curious to see if the low raw number of high velocity pitches has to do with usage. Do the Twins throw more breaking and off speed stuff than other teams? That could be a factor. That said, I suspect that even if they throw relatively fewer fastballs, it’s still probably not enough to account for such a stark velo difference from the rest of the league. 

Probably, but the theory is that the offspeed stuff only works when coupled with a bit of heat.  Santana's fastballs were usually not anything special, but he was masterful at changing speeds, among the other things he was masterful at.

[prouster]

3 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Probably, but the theory is that the offspeed stuff only works when coupled with a bit of heat.  Santana's fastballs were usually not anything special, but he was masterful at changing speeds, among the other things he was masterful at.

That’s definitely how pitchers have traditionally done it. These days I think we’re seeing more and more guys work primarily off their breaking pitches, e.g. McCullers and Wisler. Just something I wanted to throw out there.