Week in Review: Break Time

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins are riding a winning streak into the All-Star break, thanks to a four-game sweep over the Tigers at Target Field to close out the first half.

The MLB Draft is underway, the trade deadline is bearing down, and plenty of intriguing storylines are unfolding. Let's dig in.

Weekly Snapshot: 7/5 through Sun, 7/11

***

Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 39-50)
Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: -57)
Standing: T-4th Place in AL Central (15.0 GB)

Last Week's Game Recaps:

Game 83 | MIN 8, CWS 5: Ober Picks Up First MLB Win
Game 84 | CWS 4, MIN 1: Berríos Gets No Help in Brilliant Outing
Game 85 | CWS 6, MIN 1: Bats Have No Answer for Lance Lynn
Game 86 | MIN 5, DET 3: Happ and Hitters Go Deep as Twins Top Tigers
Game 87 | MIN 4, DET 2: Tides Turn for Twins in 4-Run Sixth Inning
Game 88 | MIN 9, DET 4: Late Surge from Offense Lifts Twins
Game 89 | MIN 12, DET 9: Polanco Walks Off Detroit in 10th 

NEWS & NOTES

Even after taking four straight from Detroit, improving to 7-2 against them this year, the Twins are still only tied with the Tigers for fourth place in the AL Central standings. That speaks to how badly things were going beforehand – with another series loss against the White Sox earlier in the week, Minnesota had fallen to a season-high 15.5 games out of first place.

The Twins head into the All-Star break with several players sidelined, including key cogs like Byron Buxton and Mitch Garver. But the steady stream of injuries has thankfully slowed to a trickle of late, with more additions than subtractions in the past couple weeks. The latest activation was Michael Pineda, who replaced Griffin Jax on the active roster but struggled in his return on Wednesday.

It sounds like Garver and Jake Cave could be firing up rehab stints shortly after the break concludes. 

HIGHLIGHTS

Top performers from the past week included:

• Max Kepler, who has sprung to life after watching his batting average dip below .200 at the end of June. Kepler has raised his OPS by nearly 100 points in July, and the last week helped a lot as he went 9-for-24 with three home runs and seven RBIs. He is a sleeper candidate to be traded this month.
• José Berríos is less of a sleeper and more of a prime deadline asset for the selling Twins. We'll see if they get an offer that compels them to trade their best starter, but Berríos is doing his part to stoke the market. He went seven innings in both of his two starts this past week, striking out 18 and allowing just four hits.  
• Luis Arraez started six of the seven games and collected hits in each, finishing the week 10-for-26. Since returning from the IL in mid-June, Arraez is batting .329/.376/.459 with five doubles and three triples in 23 games.

It was a relatively quiet week for Jorge Polanco, who went 7-for-28 to keep his batting average in the .250 range, but he finished with a bang on Sunday, driving in a career-high five runs and sending the Twins into the break with a walk-off win.

LOWLIGHTS

Adjustments might be catching up with Trevor Larnach. The rookie outfielder has so impressed manager Rocco Baldelli that he's now hitting third or fourth on a regular basis, but Larnach finds himself in a real funk as the All-Star break arrives. The last week saw him go 4-for-26 with 15 strikeouts in 29 plate appearances, including golden sombreros (4 Ks) on both Saturday and Sunday.

Major-league pitchers are finding ways to attack and exploit Larnach, who has a 22-to-3 K/BB ratio this month. Now the impetus is on him to make his own adjustments and get back on track. Given the caliber of hitter he is, that seems likely, and these will be the intriguing sorts of threads to follow in the second half of this wayward season.

Another key figure to follow will be Bailey Ober, who struggled against Detroit on Saturday, coughing up four runs over 3 ⅓ innings while laboring through 79 pitches. The big right-hander has an opportunity to more or less lock down a 2022 rotation spot with a good showing this year, but he's gonna need to step it up. Ober has gotten through five innings only twice in eight starts, and lapses like Saturday's have been all too common. He flashes strikeout stuff and his control has been pretty solid, but he's given up nine homers in 33 innings. 

Can he solve the long-ball woes in the second half? And how much opportunity will have to do so, as the Twins carefully manage his workload coming off the lost season? 

TRENDING STORYLINE

The MLB Draft is officially underway and the Twins made their first two picks on Sunday night, selecting a pair of prep stars with enticing upside.

With their first pick, at #26 overall, the Twins took Chase Petty, a right-handed pitcher out of Mainland Regional High School in New Jersey. The hard-throwing hurler is reputed for a fastball that touches triple digits, but he slid to the back of the first round because he has trouble controlling it. If the Twins can harness his command and keep him healthy they may have a gem here. 

At #36, the Twins used their second pick to take another 18-year-old high schooler, this time going with shortstop Noah Miller out of Ozaukee High School in Wisconsin. He's considered a defensive specialist – which is good because it means he should stick at short – but he has the tools to become a two-way threat.

The Twins' first two picks in this draft don't exactly scream "immediate help," and are a departure from this front office's typical tendency to jump on college players in the early rounds. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. We'll see where the organization goes from here. The draft continues on Monday with rounds 2 through 10, and Minnesota's next selection will come at No. 61. Make sure to stay tuned into Twins Daily as we'll be covering the action live.

LOOKING AHEAD

Nelson Cruz will represent the Twins in the All-Star Game on Tuesday, and then the team gets back to action with a flurry of action on the other side of the break. Friday's double-header against Detroit sparks a span of six games in four days coming out of the break, with a double-header in Chicago against the White Sox awaiting next Monday.

We'll see how the Twins situate their roster and rotation to accommodate. As of now, probable starters have not been announced.

TUESDAY, 7/13: MLB ALL-STAR GAME
FRIDAY, 7/16 (G1): TWINS @ TIGERS
FRIDAY, 7/16 (G2): TWINS @ TIGERS
SATURDAY, 7/17: TWINS @ TIGERS
SUNDAY, 7/18: TWINS @ TIGERS 

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[wsnydes]

Nice to take some positivity into the break.  Hopefully that will carry over on the flip side because that stretch promises to be taxing on the pitching staff.

[roger]

Thanks for another good read on this week, Nick.  Aren’t the Twins and Detroit also tied for third?

Cringed a bit when I read your comments about trades for Kepler and Berrios.  Yes, if an offer is too good to refuse they could/should move them.  But after feeling a rebuild is necessary much of the spring, I am changing to think retooling makes more sense.  Yes, pitching needs help, lots of help.  But the place to start is keeping José.  And a lineup with Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Arraez and the two rookies can be very good.

Yes, it was Detroit.  But I loved to see some fight back in this team this week.

[chinmusic]

Thanks, as always, for the week in review, Nick.

You didn't mention Donaldson. Wonder if he might be moved, or shopped?

Guess it's goodbye to Messieurs Cruz  and Simmons.

Kepler interesting as a sleeper candidate, as you say.

I hope, and actually believe, that Berrios will finish this season as a Twin.

The team can compete again next year, at least in theory.

 

[Whitey333]

Love Berrios and hope the Twins keep him.  His performance yesterday was typical of his career.  Pitches great and one inning loses it inexplicably.  But worth having.  What is scary to me is the apparant multiple times he's turned down contract offers from Twins.  If they cannot sign him they need to trade him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Even after taking four straight from Detroit, improving to 7-2 against them this year, the Twins are still only tied with the Tigers for fourth place in the AL Central standings.

 

2 hours ago, roger said:

Aren’t the Twins and Detroit also tied for third?

 

Technically, Detroit is still in sole possession of third place, and the Twins are in 4th. Even after the sweep, Detroit is percentage points ahead of us at 40-51 (a .440 winning percentage) vs our 39-50 (.438).

We're both 15 games out of first, which is probably where Nick was looking. (Also both 11.5 back in the wild card.)

[mikelink45]

So far this year the rookie arms have disappointed me.  Ober might be the best of them, but you described him well and I am not impressed at this point.  I do wish we had some of the rookie RP on board to see what they have.  

I am thinking that the Twins might play 500 the second half which has two possible outcomes - we get fooled thinking everything will be okay or we will start selling and put ourselves in a position to try and race KC and Detroit back to significance. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Interesting stretch ahead. Do you think that we will see a start from Barnes or Winder in the upcoming 6 games in 4 days stretch with the Tigers and White Sox? Detroit might not be a bad team for them to get in their first start; White Sox not so much. Might also be time to fire up the Uber and get Hamilton, Vasquez or Cano up. There willbe a time where they can replace a guy like Law or Coloumbe after they go 2 or 3 innings following a short start. Time to see what these 5 guys have.

It will also be interesting to see if we make any trades over the break or wait until late July. It's hard to trade pitching when you come out of the break with 15 games in 13 days so any trade of Pineda, Happ, Robles or Thielbar probably has to wait until month end. Still, it would create space for a AAA pitcher. I think they can trade Simmons or Cruz whenever they want if they get the right deal.  It will be interesting to see if they give Gordon games at SS after Simmons is traded, assuming he is. They've kept Gordon on the 26 man even though he hasn't been playing. I got to think that's because they intend to play him after trading Simmons either at SS or as a UTL. I'd love to see them give him a crack at SS now and then so they know going into the winter if he can play the position. They'll almost have to play him if Donaldson is traded. 

Interesting times, indeed. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

So far this year the rookie arms have disappointed me.  Ober might be the best of them, but you described him well and I am not impressed at this point.

What rookie arms? It's pretty much just Ober and Jax with MLB appearances so far this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Interesting stretch ahead. Do you think that we will see a start from Barnes or Winder in the upcoming 6 games in 4 days stretch with the Tigers and White Sox? Detroit might not be a bad team for them to get in their first start; White Sox not so much. Might also be time to fire up the Uber and get Hamilton, Vasquez or Cano up. There willbe a time where they can replace a guy like Law or Coloumbe after they go 2 or 3 innings following a short start. Time to see what these 5 guys have.

FWIW, Law and Coloumbe are both out of options, so they can't be replaced unless they are DFA'd. Not unlikely, but they'd probably have to struggle first, not simply be out of rest.

40-man roster is full at 40 right now. Cave could be coming back from the 60-day IL soon and require a spot -- could be Garlick getting transferred to the 60-day IL himself.

Guessing we may not see any other 40-man additions until after the trade deadline on July 30. They may or may not need 40-man spots for some of the guys coming back to us in trades too.

[Dodecahedron]

The Twins looked like they were having fun this week.  PMA goes a long way when you already have the necessary skills and discipline to succeed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

the upcoming 6 games in 4 days stretch with the Tigers and White Sox

My guess is Jax in one of the doubleheaders, and a bullpen game in the other.

Right now Jax is listed as the probable starter for St. Paul this Wednesday July 14, which would put him in line to start again during the White Sox doubleheader on Monday July 19 on normal rest.

They'll obviously have a fully rested pen coming out of the all-star break this Friday, so that would be my guess for the bullpen game. Astudillo could come back at the 27th man if there is any lingering concern about Jeffers after he left the game yesterday. Beau Burrows would be another option, if they really wanted another pitcher.

If a 60-day IL guy (i.e. Cave) is ready by Friday, they could activate them as the 27th man too, then option someone else out after the game.

[IndianaTwin]

I moved a father-in-law to the retirement home in the last two months, sold his house, and had a son get married last month, so I haven't been following as closely as usual, but was impressed with what seemed like some resiliency recently. 

In total, 39-50 obviously stinks, but I'm struck that if you split that in (roughly) half, you get a 16-28 stretch over the first 44 games, followed by 45 games of playing .500 (23-22, technically). And over the last 21, they are 12-9, though five of those losses were unfortunately to Chicago.

I'm not saying that's "don't sell" territory. I'm just suggesting that the team hasn't been a complete disaster the past month and a half the way most here have suggested. Disappointing, yes, because of what preceded it, but I'd encourage folks to slowly step away from the ledge.

Put another way, if they continue at even a .500 clip the rest of the way, they end up at 76 or 77 wins. If they play 12-9 level the rest of the way, they get to, hmmm..., 81 wins.

I'm not a betting man, but I'd frankly take the over, particularly if they played out the year with this roster. 

 

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

What rookie arms? It's pretty much just Ober and Jax with MLB appearances so far this year.

You are right, I went on the team statistics and realized all the new names are retreads and bargain basement sales items. 

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

My guess is Jax in one of the doubleheaders, and a bullpen game in the other.

Right now Jax is listed as the probable starter for St. Paul this Wednesday July 14, which would put him in line to start again during the White Sox doubleheader on Monday July 19 on normal rest.

They'll obviously have a fully rested pen coming out of the all-star break this Friday, so that would be my guess for the bullpen game. Astudillo could come back at the 27th man if there is any lingering concern about Jeffers after he left the game yesterday. Beau Burrows would be another option, if they really wanted another pitcher.

If a 60-day IL guy (i.e. Cave) is ready by Friday, they could activate them as the 27th man too, then option someone else out after the game.

What I want and it will not happen is for Winder, Barnes, even Balazovic to get in the game.  It is time to look for the future and a BP games accomplishes nothing.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

What I want and it will not happen is for Winder, Barnes, even Balazovic to get in the game.  It is time to look for the future and a BP games accomplishes nothing.  

Winder has 7.2 IP at AAA so far, Barnes might not even get protected from Rule 5 this winter, and Balazovic just completed 6 innings for the first time at AA.

There is still plenty of season left for anyone deserving to get looks. Like I said upthread, I'm guessing we're not going to make any big 40-man moves until after we make our trade deadline deals.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Winder has 7.2 IP at AAA so far, Barnes might not even get protected from Rule 5 this winter, and Balazovic just completed 6 innings for the first time at AA.

There is still plenty of season left for anyone deserving to get looks. Like I said upthread, I'm guessing we're not going to make any big 40-man moves until after we make our trade deadline deals.

Might be true, but it is still my wish.  What does another start by Happ mean for the future?  Who cares about Coloumbe, Law, Robles after this season?  I am not interested in a winning second half, I want a winning season.  Push the envelop.

[Nine of twelve]

On 7/12/2021 at 9:07 AM, Otto von Ballpark said:

 

 

Technically, Detroit is still in sole possession of third place, and the Twins are in 4th. Even after the sweep, Detroit is percentage points ahead of us at 40-51 (a .440 winning percentage) vs our 39-50 (.438).

We're both 15 games out of first, which is probably where Nick was looking. (Also both 11.5 back in the wild card.)

Technically and otherwise, accuracy is a good thing.

[Nine of twelve]

On 7/12/2021 at 2:17 PM, IndianaTwin said:

In total, 39-50 obviously stinks, but I'm struck that if you split that in (roughly) half, you get a 16-28 stretch over the first 44 games, followed by 45 games of playing .500 (23-22, technically). And over the last 21, they are 12-9, though five of those losses were unfortunately to Chicago.

I'll split that a bit further. First 7 games: 5-2. At that point the accursed virus infiltrated the organization, which threw the entire organization and the playing schedule into chaos. Next 37 games: 11-26. Any and every person in the organization who declined vaccination is certainly responsible at least in part for that.

[ashbury]

On 7/12/2021 at 4:17 PM, mikelink45 said:

Who cares about Coloumbe, Law

A ton of Physics majors do.