Game Recap: Twins 9, Detroit 4

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Home runs by Alex Kirilloff and Jorge Polanco and an explosive eighth inning pushed the Minnesota Twins past the Detroit Tigers Saturday afternoon.

Box Score

Ober: 3 1/3 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

Home Runs: Alex Kirilloff (8), Jorge Polanco (11)

Top 3 WPA: Jorge Polanco .454, Luis Arraez .128, Alexander Colomé .124

 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

It appeared as though a win simply wasn’t in the cards for the Twins for the majority of the game on Saturday afternoon.

Starting pitcher Bailey Ober started off the game strong, striking out the side in the first inning, but flamed out brightly during the Tigers’ second time through the order. Niko Goodrum and Zack Short crushed balls over the fence and Harold Castro brought in another to give Detroit a 4-0 lead after four innings.

But, remarkably, things started to go the Twins’ way in the second half of the game.

 

Derek Law and Danny Coloumbe came on in relief for Ober and pitched 3 ⅔ innings of scoreless ball. Alex Kirilloff blasted a home run over the right centerfield fence to cut the lead to 4-2 in the sixth. Jorge Polanco added three more in the seventh with his 11th home run of the season. Alexander Colomé pitched a scoreless top of the eighth inning after allowing a leadoff double and four Twins’ runners touched home in the bottom of the frame.

After the dust had settled, the Twins had turned a 4-0 deficit with an 8.2% win expectancy into a 9-4 win, clinching a series victory over the Tigers.

While their opponent was not exactly the same caliber of, say, a Chicago or Boston, the Twins’ win on Saturday should provide the masses with a breath of fresh air. The bullpen performed well, the offense came through in the clutch, one of the franchise’s premier prospects hit a mammoth bomb. At the end of the day, a quality win is a quality win, regardless of opponent.

A Note on Ober

Although Ober struggled against an iffy Tigers lineup, he continued to display signs of promise for the future.

By now it has been well established that his fastball is significantly improved from the last time he played live ball in 2019 and it is that improvement that helped propel him into the majors this season. However, the key for him moving forward is all about process.

At 92-94 mph, Ober isn’t going to overpower batters on a consistent basis. That is where his strong command and control comes into play. If he is able to place a 94 mph heater wherever he wishes, he becomes a much more dangerous opponent. However, over his last two starts, his command has been mediocre at best. He walked three during his win over the White Sox and two against the Tigers on Saturday.

But, I wonder if the Twins are working with him on improving his pitch placement. Ober consistently works his fastball up in the zone with up-and-away being the second most frequent location it was deployed against Detroit; this is where his fastball is most effective. He couples his fastball with a sharp curveball down in the zone. In the minors, pitchers of Ober’s caliber can get away with somewhat shoddy pitch command/location. That won’t fly against a major league batting order.

Making adjustments on the fly to where he is looking to throw the ball would help explain at least some of the control issues Ober has displayed as of late. His strikeout numbers are there, but once his command improves and he starts missing more barrels, he’ll be right in-line to contend for a rotation spot moving forward.

 

Postgame Interviews

 

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	TOT
Law	0	0	50	0	0	27	77
Thielbar	29	0	20	0	20	0	69
Duffey	17	0	0	15	0	21	53
Rogers	31	0	0	6	0	0	37
Robles	12	0	0	0	24	0	36
Colomé	0	14	0	0	0	17	31
Coulombe	0	12	0	0	0	13	25
Alcala	0	0	0	0	23	0	23

 

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[Monticore]

Great job by Law.  Same bd as La Tortuga and my baby sister (September 14)

[MABB1959]

IMO Ober has earned his spot in the rotation.  Even if he has some bad games this year he will learn from them.  Glad to see the other youngsters and hope they stay up too.  If they trade Donaldson and Cruz I hope they could bring back Audistillo and use him at first and give Sano DH and perhaps some time at 3rd.  I think he is a better hitter when on the field instead of DH'ing only.  But I don't know that much.  I just like a consistent line-up.  I would stop the shuffling around the righties vs lefties and let the rookies get practice hitting against both.  Arraez. Polanco, Larnach, Kiriloff. Sano, Austidillo and Kepler are our future.  Not sure what they could/should do for catching and I don't like but don't have a reason for hating on Simmons either.  We just need Buxton back and play that lineup for the rest of the year.    Pitching: Berrios, Mejeda and give Ober, Balazovic and Jax the rest of the year to see what they have.  Can't help but can't hurt.  Let these guys take their lumps w/o the fear of being send back down.

[MABB1959]

Why isn't Berrios in the ASG?

[PDX Twin]

Cruz, Surely this train-wreck doesn't deserve more than one...

[stringer bell]

In the bottom of the eighth, Sanó got a lead off walk. With both Celestino and Gordon on the bench, why didn’t Rocco pinch run one of them and then have a better defense for the ninth inning? Kirilloff could move to first, Kepler to right and the pinch runner to center. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

IMO Ober has earned his spot in the rotation.  Even if he has some bad games this year he will learn from them.  Glad to see the other youngsters and hope they stay up too.  If they trade Donaldson and Cruz I hope they could bring back Audistillo and use him at first and give Sano DH and perhaps some time at 3rd.  I think he is a better hitter when on the field instead of DH'ing only.  But I don't know that much.  I just like a consistent line-up.  I would stop the shuffling around the righties vs lefties and let the rookies get practice hitting against both.  Arraez. Polanco, Larnach, Kiriloff. Sano, Austidillo and Kepler are our future.  Not sure what they could/should do for catching and I don't like but don't have a reason for hating on Simmons either.  We just need Buxton back and play that lineup for the rest of the year.    Pitching: Berrios, Mejeda and give Ober, Balazovic and Jax the rest of the year to see what they have.  Can't help but can't hurt.  Let these guys take their lumps w/o the fear of being send back down.

I was watching MLB Network not too long ago. Ron Darling and John Smoltz both were saying it takes about 100 starts for a big league pitcher to really gain his footing. At the time, it made me think of Berrios and today I was thinking it applies to Ober. Ober might be something after a bit more experience. 

[GNess]

100 starts is about 3+ seasons. Seems like a long ramp up to be grounded as a SP is MLB.

[Franz]

7 hours ago, GNess said:

100 starts is about 3+ seasons. Seems like a long ramp up to be grounded as a SP is MLB.

100 starts/3 seasons is an interesting take. Anecdotally, if you look at career stats of some greats, e.g. Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, even Greg Maddux, you see a marked improvement (from good to great) about three full seasons into their careers. I leave it to someone else to do a thorough analysis (does it apply to borderline pitchers who become merely 'good'?), but this suggests that you shouldn't judge full potential by the early results...and I think it supports MABB1959's comment about getting our young pitchers experience in the majors to help accelerate their development.

[bighat]

18 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

IMO Ober has earned his spot in the rotation. 

How on earth did he "earn" his spot? In two of his last 3 starts, he hasn't made it out of the 4th inning and has given up 4 or more ER.

Another example of how we're so traumatized by watching Twins pitching that we think a guy with a 5.45 ERA is earning a spot. It just shows how low our standards have fallen.

I think we should keep running Ober out there, just to see if anything changes, but keep your expectations reasonable. This guy doesn't look like he's got anything that's going to keep him in the majors.