Twins Minor League Pitching Report: Jordan Balazovic

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

If 2021 is the year of Josh Winder’s breakout, then 2019 was the year of Jordan Balazovic. The Minnesota Twins’ 2016 fifth-round pick out of Canada shot up the internet’s various prospect ranking systems thanks to an electric fastball and the projectability of his 6-foot-5-inch, 215 pound frame. There are arguably no more important attributes a pitcher can possess in the modern iteration of major league baseball than heat and projectability and Balazovic has both in spades.

After missing the first couple months of the season thanks to an ailing back, Balazovic has made six starts for the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge, hurling a total of 24 ⅓ innings with his last start on June 30 (5 ⅔ innings) being his longest of the season. He currently owns an uninspiring 4.44 ERA, though 10 of the 12 runs he has surrendered came during two of his first four starts. Over his last 10 ⅓ innings, Balazovic has allowed two earned runs while striking out 14 batters and walking only two.

Balazovic possesses a funky-ish delivery that isn’t so much violent as it is...flaily?

This delivery is simultaneously one of his strengths as well as a weakness, at least potentially. The sheer volume of movement of his limbs not only serves as a peripheral distraction, but also helps hide the ball remarkably well, making it difficult for opposing batters to get a solid read on which pitch is barreling towards the plate. Combine that with his healthy wingspan and Balazovic has a natural proclivity for getting people out with his heater (more on that in a second).

However, this extraneous movement also likely increases the amount of torque placed on his shoulder and back, in particular, potentially threatening his durability. (There’s no way to know for sure unless the Twins allow us to strap electrodes on him and register the force these structures are exposed to and I don’t think Twins Daily has either that kind of budget or access.) That said, Balazovic pushes off well with his back leg, which is the main reason why he is able to sit 93-95 mph with his fastball.

Speaking of which, Balazovic’s fastball is, in my estimation, one of the better ones in the Twins’ system. He most frequently unloads the pitch near the top of the zone and while command can sometimes be an issue - his 7.1% BB% is tied for the second highest of his career - the fastball can touch as high as 97 mph and possesses great rising action. 

Of course, Balazovic’s fastball doesn’t actually rise - that would either 1. defy the laws of physics or 2. suggest that he’s secretly Tyler Rogers in disguise - but rather it simply appears as though it is rising to the batter. One of the worst pitches a hurler can have is a fastball that neither sinks nor plays tricks with opponent’s mind and luckily Balazovic checks at least one of those boxes.

As for his other pitches, Balazovic infrequently throws a changeup that sits 87-90 mph with tailing/sinking movement as well as a slider and curveball that are essentially the same pitch, though the slider is both a little faster (83-86 mph versus 81-83 mph) and has a slightly sharper break.

The fastball and slider are the two pitches he relies on most frequently to rack up strikeouts and induce outs, in general. The curveball is most often employed in the middle of an at-bat while his changeup is very frequently an afterthought. 

Watching Balazovic, it’s easy to get excited for what his future holds and it’s apparent why many in and around MLB think that he is perhaps the Twins’ top pitching prospect; he simply looks like a modern day pitcher and has the stuff of one, too. If he can stay healthy, keep the walks low, and keep the ball in the park, he has the potential to be a very solid pitcher with a long career. 

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[bean5302]

Balazovic is dealing with a .359 BABIP which suggests some of his ERA is likely from luck this year. That's especially the case when you consider the tiny sample size. Seems like the Twins have Balazovic on a pitch count around 85 over his past 4 starts. Looking at the number of strikes he's throwing (65%-ish), it's surprising to see him not getting later into games. In any case, once the BABIP starts regressing, it wouldn't surprise me to see Balazovic's results start to shine.

The pitch/innings limit decisions have to be under the greatest level of scrutiny in recent history with the loss of the 2020 season for most MiLB players. Coupled with quite a few studies which have continued to debunk the innings/pitch limits as being valuable at preventing injury, I wonder how things will look going forward.

Can the Twins afford to wait until 2024 to have a pitcher like Balazovic stretched out?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

52 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Balazovic is dealing with a .359 BABIP which suggests some of his ERA is likely from luck this year. That's especially the case when you consider the tiny sample size. Seems like the Twins have Balazovic on a pitch count around 85 over his past 4 starts. Looking at the number of strikes he's throwing (65%-ish), it's surprising to see him not getting later into games. In any case, once the BABIP starts regressing, it wouldn't surprise me to see Balazovic's results start to shine.

The pitch/innings limit decisions have to be under the greatest level of scrutiny in recent history with the loss of the 2020 season for most MiLB players. Coupled with quite a few studies which have continued to debunk the innings/pitch limits as being valuable at preventing injury, I wonder how things will look going forward.

Can the Twins afford to wait until 2024 to have a pitcher like Balazovic stretched out?

Your point about the science and lack of support for the innings/pitch limit is a good one, but the difficult thing about baseball (and really anything medically-related, tangential or otherwise) is that it takes a long time to implement new practices. That and while we're starting to understand that innings and pitch limits don't have as great of an impact on injury occurrence as we once thought, we're not particularly close to finding a better answer either, placing everyone in a tough spot.

As far as Balazovic specifically, I think they're just being overly cautious due to 1. the back injury he suffered and 2. the rash of arm injuries among pitchers in their farm system. It would be a brutal blow to lose Duran, Balazovic, Canterino and Enlow to injury all in one summer (though only Enlow has undergone surgery at this point). I think we'll see Balazovic on the Twins next summer towards the end of the season. 

[Taildragger8791]

So is he likely a bullpen candidate without an effective change up or some other true third pitch?

[TopGunn#22]

Right now the Twins rotation projects to be a mess next season, even if they sign Berrios long term and Maeda regains his command.  SOMEONE out of Balazovic, Canterino, Enlow, Ober and Duran needs to step up.  

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

1 minute ago, Taildragger8791 said:

So is he likely a bullpen candidate without an effective change up or some other true third pitch?

No, he's definitely a starter at the MLB level. His ceiling is probably something like a decent No. 2/great No. 3. His changeup is good from what I saw, he just doesn't throw it much. Could be something Wes Johnson tweaks once he makes it to the majors. Functionally, his curveball works as a third pitch because he employs it in different scenarios than the slider and it is just different enough in velo, movement, etc. to keep batters on their toes. 

[DocBauer]

His delivery is not "flaily" though I appreciate the attempt to create a new adjective, lol. I believe what you were attempting to describe is that his delivery resembles a trebuchet...long range medieval weapon....that "slings" destructive objects. In this case, some wicked pitches.

The side by side of his slider and curve is awesome! I see the slider biting down and to the left side of the plate and the curve having a little more "hump" and more of a traditional 12-6 downward movement. The fact that they look the same early but have different movement kate and are a couple MPH different can make each devastating to both RH and LH batters. With any sort/form of change....straight, circle, split-finger, etc...he has every tool to be a front line SP.

His only problem is time. With no back issue, he is probably at AAA right now with Winder. I don't know if he will reach the ML, even as a September call up, due to lost time, but I agree with some caution. Stretch him out, push him, promote him, but a whole lost season has to have to affect on an arm that lost expected developmental time as well as just normal use.

I think he'll be ready, at worst, early in 2022.

Adendum: Duran looked pretty good until his "forearm tightness". Please correct me if wrong, but Canterino and Sands (and Rijo), have been temporarily shelved for the same or similar. We/They actually get lucky and that's all it is....no Enlow season-ending surgery...Duran should make his debut yet this year to get his feet wet. Sands could easily join Balazovic in St Paul and Canterino would have a shot.

Rijo and Vallimont...who also had late starts...could easily be a half step behind by finishing strong at AA.

[wabene]

On 7/9/2021 at 11:43 PM, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

Your point about the science and lack of support for the innings/pitch limit is a good one, but the difficult thing about baseball (and really anything medically-related, tangential or otherwise) is that it takes a long time to implement new practices. That and while we're starting to understand that innings and pitch limits don't have as great of an impact on injury occurrence as we once thought, we're not particularly close to finding a better answer either, placing everyone in a tough spot.

As far as Balazovic specifically, I think they're just being overly cautious due to 1. the back injury he suffered and 2. the rash of arm injuries among pitchers in their farm system. It would be a brutal blow to lose Duran, Balazovic, Canterino and Enlow to injury all in one summer (though only Enlow has undergone surgery at this point). I think we'll see Balazovic on the Twins next summer towards the end of the season. 

An 18 second pitch clock could go a long way towards reducing the surge in pitching injuries we've seen. Without the recovery time most pitchers would have to dial back on the max effort offerings. Les unhittable pitches means more balls in play. Hey the game would be more fun to watch again!