Horrible pitching

[Sitdowncomedy]

The Twins chose to let Kyle Gibson, Rich Hill and Lance Lynn go elsewhere.  So far this season, they are a combined 20 wins, 6 losses.  The replacements, Maeda, Shoemaker, Dobnak, Pineda and Happ are a combined 15 wins, 25 losses.  The Twins must be the only major league team to have at least 10 batting practice pitchers on their active roster.  There must be something wrong with the pitching coach team that can't get the same results as other organizations.

[Mike Sixel]

Lance Lynne was a pending FA that didn't want to be in MN.

Kyle Gibson was not all that good when he left, or the time between this year and then.

Rich HIll? Which of PIneda or Maeda should they not have signed and kept him? Or, does last year NOT count for Maeda? 

The problem is that the last FO was AWFUL at drafting pitchers outside Gibson and Berrios. They took Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay in the top 6.......ugh. The also took Nick Gordon instead of Trea Turner. Etc. 

[Sitdowncomedy]

All valid points but either the scouting or the coaching or both are substandard.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Sitdowncomedy said:

All valid points but either the scouting or the coaching or both are substandard.

I'm not excusing this FO, just saying we don't really know yet. But, the track record isn't ideal.

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, Sitdowncomedy said:

All valid points but either the scouting or the coaching or both are substandard.

I guess my question is did you feel this way last year when they had the 4th best ERA in baseball? Or the year before when they were 9th best in baseball? 

This regime took over after 2016. In 2016 the Twins finished 29th in baseball in ERA. Since then they've gone 19th, 22nd, 9th, 4th and now the wheels have completely fallen off and this year is a disaster. Team ERA went from 5.08 in 2016 to 4.59, 4.50, 4.18, 3.58. Now we're back up to 5.02.

So as they built their system and brought the team from one of the worst staffs in the league to top 10 did you feel scouting and/or coaching were substandard? This year is total system failure and the staff is an embarrassment, but there's a lot of 20/20 hindsight and ignoring of the last 4 years going around Twins territory these days.

[nicksaviking]

I was all for re-signing Hill. 

The other two had worn out their welcome long before they left, which in Lynn's case is pretty impressive considering how short his tenure here was.

Plus, re-signing Gibson quite possibly would have kept them from winning the division last year. Doubtful the Twins sign Hill last year with Gibson both on the books and locked into the rotation. Hill was good last year, Gibson was bad enough to likely cost the Twins at least the one game they beat Chicago by. Likely he would have cost them several more.

[Mike Sixel]

We really are suffering recency bias this year. Big time.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

We really are suffering recency bias this year. Big time.

It has been a really, really long year.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It has been a really, really long year.

Luckily it is almost over, right?

[operation mindcrime]

30 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Luckily it is almost over, right?

Like the song by Green Day "Wake me up when September ends!"

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, operation mindcrime said:

Like the song by Green Day "Wake me up when September ends!"

I always thought that was political, but he wrote it about his father's death......great song, by a great band.

[purplesoldier4u]

I think it's interesting that White Sox have the power-pitching that the Twins wanted. Sometimes, you have to go out and get it.

[Dodecahedron]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I guess my question is did you feel this way last year when they had the 4th best ERA in baseball? Or the year before when they were 9th best in baseball? 

This regime took over after 2016. In 2016 the Twins finished 29th in baseball in ERA. Since then they've gone 19th, 22nd, 9th, 4th and now the wheels have completely fallen off and this year is a disaster. Team ERA went from 5.08 in 2016 to 4.59, 4.50, 4.18, 3.58. Now we're back up to 5.02.

So as they built their system and brought the team from one of the worst staffs in the league to top 10 did you feel scouting and/or coaching were substandard? This year is total system failure and the staff is an embarrassment, but there's a lot of 20/20 hindsight and ignoring of the last 4 years going around Twins territory these days.

Seems legit to me to question the approach of the team who has the 4th best ERA in baseball who then lets every key piece of the bullpen leave, along with one of the top 3 starters.  Did the Twins think they were going to improve by turning over the pitching?  Heck, did they think they would stay the same?

The question is, why aren't you questioning their decision making?

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Dodecahedron said:

Seems legit to me to question the approach of the team who has the 4th best ERA in baseball who then lets every key piece of the bullpen leave, along with one of the top 3 starters.  Did the Twins think they were going to improve by turning over the pitching?  Heck, did they think they would get the same results?  

The question is, why aren't you questioning their decision making?

Who isn't? The point that post was making was that one year does not necessarily mean they are bad at their job. 

If Pineda is healthy, and Maeda is close to last year (both somewhat reasonable), the only real change is swapping out Hill (among the starters)......I'm sure they thought one of Ober or Dobnak would take over quicker if/when one of their FAs signings failed. But really, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. Given their previous work, this could just be bad luck (with a bad decision or two).

The question some are asking is....why don't previous years matter in assessing their abilities? Sometimes stuff just doesn't work, even if you do most things right. That seems to be the case with pitching (other than signing both Happ and Shoemaker, it seemed ok to most before the implosion).

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Seems legit to me to question the approach of the team who has the 4th best ERA in baseball who then lets every key piece of the bullpen leave, along with one of the top 3 starters.  Did the Twins think they were going to improve by turning over the pitching?  Heck, did they think they would stay the same?

The question is, why aren't you questioning their decision making?

I do question their decision making, but the talk around here and on other sites and amongst those I talk to in the real world is that there's a question of whether or not this FO can build a pitching staff and they use this season to say "see, they're awful and have no idea what they're doing" while ignoring the previous 4 seasons.

I wasn't thrilled to see May leave. Not sure what other "key pieces of the bullpen" they let go that you're upset about. 38 year old Romo and his 4.55 ERA? Matt Wisler who was already cut this year by SF? Tyler Clippard who hasn't thrown a pitch this season? Were Duffey and Rogers not key pieces? 

Their top 3 starters were Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda. All of which came back this year. Did you mean Rich Hill who was the exact type of signing you've spent the last 3 months complaining about? 

You're proving my point. You're using 20/20 hindsight, and not even very well. May and Hill are the only guys from last year's staff who would be helping this year. You think that makes them 10 games better to this point or what? Of course I question their decisions. But acting like they're completely incompetent and have shown no ability to build a pitching staff is completely ignoring 4 years in favor of 3 months. Not a great strategy in my opinion.

[Linus]

I think some of the decisions made last off season were eminently open to criticism while acknowledging they made some good decisions prior years. What I can’t really understand is how they have drafted unathletic corner boppers while disregarding pitching. We won’t pay for pitching but we won’t draft it either?

[Danchat]

My problem isn't that they let Gibson and Lynn left, it's that they haven't gotten the most out of them compared to how other teams have. Lynn has been a very good pitcher before and after his year as a Twin, and yet he looked awful here. "He didn't want to me here" doesn't cut it for me, even if that was true, wouldn't he be trying to pitch his best as to earn a more substantial deal on the FA market? 

Gibson, meanwhile, is having by far his best year at age 33... we had him in his prime and he topped out as a #3 guy. Not a bad outcome, but why couldn't we have maximized his abilities here? 

Tampa is lucky Hill is still healthy, he was simply too much of an injury risk to bring back IMO. I'm not surprised he's doing well.

This has just been a single bad year of pitching, but man is it a completely rotten one. The previous FO had things screwed up in the pitching department so bad that Falvine had next to nothing to till the farm for a few years, but this is their farm system now.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I think some of the decisions made last off season were eminently open to criticism while acknowledging they made some good decisions prior years. What I can’t really understand is how they have drafted unathletic corner boppers while disregarding pitching. We won’t pay for pitching but we won’t draft it either?

Cleveland hasn’t invested high draft capital in pitching either, and I’m sure Falvey has that philosophy in mind. They developed talent from unlikely sources like minor trades, waiver wire, and late round picks. They earned the benefit of the doubt IMO after they cobbled together competitive pitching staffs with spare parts. Unfortunately we backed the wrong horses in the race this year.

. @Mike Sixelhas mentioned this several times…. It’s really hard to be right every year when you’re replacing 2-3 starters and half of the bullpen. 

[tony&rodney]

I have no quibble with this management team, but  they are very inexperienced. One thing which has surprised me on Twins Daily is the negative reactions to Ryan/Gardy/Molitor, all highly respected and very knowledgable baseball lifers. It is important to remember that the AL Central was very weak the last two years. The Twins needed to improve to compete and they did not take the leap. Hopefully the Twins prospects like Duran, Balazovic, Winder, and others will develop as strong rotation pieces in short order. Signing FA can be a crap shoot from year to year. I wanted Kluber, Walker, and Hendriks but accepted money was an issue perhaps. The Twins failures are widespread. Pitching is poor but clutch hitting and real defense is also not good. However, panic is not a good strategy and trading for another team's excess garbage is a wasted process. There are decent players on the team and I am willing to ride with this team and look to make some minor changes and sign a few pitchers in the offseason. What I would like to see is the team grind through the games. Taking good at bats, making the plays, and hitting the strike zone are a few items to watch. I have been watching a ton of Detroit games and they grind much better than the Twins right now. The Twins have some talent and could give us all some solid baseball in the second half of the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

My problem isn't that they let Gibson and Lynn leave, it's that they haven't gotten the most out of them compared to how other teams have. Lynn has been a very good pitcher before and after his year as a Twin, and yet he looked awful here. "He didn't want to me here" doesn't cut it for me, even if that was true, wouldn't he be trying to pitch his best as to earn a more substantial deal on the FA market? 

Gibson, meanwhile, is having by far his best year at age 33... we had him in his prime and he topped out as a #3 guy. Not a bad outcome, but why couldn't we have maximized his abilities here? 

Lynn was only bad for a handful of starts with the Twins. The reason anyone wanted him at all was because he had turned it around somewhat, despite having a shaky July. Here are his breakdowns by month for 2018.

Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO9	SO/W
April/March	0	3	.000	8.37	5	5	0	0	0	0	23.2	27	22	22	5	23	2	26	0	0	0	117	2.113	9.9	1.13
May	3	1	.750	3.76	5	5	0	0	0	0	26.1	31	11	11	1	10	0	24	1	0	1	116	1.557	8.2	2.40
June	2	2	.500	2.83	5	5	0	0	0	0	28.2	22	11	9	1	14	0	31	3	0	0	123	1.256	9.7	2.21
July	2	2	.500	6.08	5	5	0	0	0	0	23.2	25	17	16	5	15	1	19	2	0	2	113	1.690	7.2	1.27
August	1	1	.500	3.98	6	5	0	0	0	0	31.2	34	14	14	1	9	0	38	0	0	1	137	1.358	10.8	4.22
Sept/Oct	2	1	.667	4.37	5	4	0	0	0	0	22.2	24	12	11	1	5	0	23	0	0	1	94	1.279	9.1	4.60

As for Gibson, it always felt like he was on the precipice of figuring out his slider and becoming a very good pitcher until he finally did it in 2018.

Then he fell ill in 2019 and everything went to hell again. And he was absolutely terrible in 2020, too.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards
2018	30	MIN	AL	10	13	.435	3.62	32	32	0	0	0	0	196.2	177	88	79	23	79	2	179	4	0	8	826	118	4.13	1.302	8.1	1.1	3.6	8.2	2.27
2019	31	MIN	AL	13	7	.650	4.84	34	29	0	0	0	0	160.0	175	99	86	23	56	0	160	7	0	8	706	93	4.26	1.444	9.8	1.3	3.2	9.0	2.86
2020	32	TEX	AL	2	6	.250	5.35	12	12	0	1	1	0	67.1	73	44	40	12	30	1	58	6	0	1	301	86	5.39	1.530	9.8	1.6	4.0	7.8	1.93

[Danchat]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

. The reason anyone wanted him at all was because he had turned it around somewhat, despite having a shaky July.

Yeah, turned it around... with the Yankees!

And I do know about how bad Gibby was at the end of 2019, he was clearly not in condition to pitch by the end (though from what I could tell he was healthy for at least the first half of the season, and he was still shaky), yet they still kept throwing him out there. I was 100% fine with him being let go... but my point still stands that we didn't maximize him. 

[TwinsFan98]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lance Lynne was a pending FA that didn't want to be in MN.

Kyle Gibson was not all that good when he left, or the time between this year and then.

Rich HIll? Which of PIneda or Maeda should they not have signed and kept him? Or, does last year NOT count for Maeda? 

The problem is that the last FO was AWFUL at drafting pitchers outside Gibson and Berrios. They took Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay in the top 6.......ugh. The also took Nick Gordon instead of Trea Turner. Etc. 

I mean at least Gordon is starting to look, but I get the point on not picking Trea.

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 minutes ago, Danchat said:

And I do know about how bad Gibby was at the end of 2019, he was clearly not in condition to pitch by the end (though from what I could tell he was healthy for at least the first half of the season, and he was still shaky), yet they still kept throwing him out there. I was 100% fine with him being let go... but my point still stands that we didn't maximize him. 

Sure, but neither did the Rangers. Gibson was terrible in 2020.

I don't think he was ever "healthy" in 2019, as he contracted e.coli in the offseason between 2018 and 2019 and showed up to Spring Training wildly underweight, if I recall correctly. He pitched better in the first half but I don't remember him being right all season.

edit: found an article from 2/2019 and it talks about him being underweight and "building up strength". We all know how that worked out for him.

https://www.mlb.com/news/kyle-gibson-on-recovery-from-e-coli-illness-c303898042

[insagt1]

I think its a bit unusual for just about every pitcher on a staff to be having brutal seasons at the same time. Twins bullpen has been a hot mess all season. the starters haven't been all that good either. You can't win when your pitchers are giving up touchdowns regularly.  the number of games they have lost when Twins had the lead at some point in the game is staggering.

A perfect storm. I don't think any of us saw this coming....to the extent it has. ( but if you want to see a REALLY awful pitching staff, check out the Orioles. Outside of Means, they have nobody who can get major league hitters out...there is a reason why they are 30 under .500)

[wsnydes]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Lynn was only bad for a handful of starts with the Twins. The reason anyone wanted him at all was because he had turned it around somewhat, despite having a shaky July. Here are his breakdowns by month for 2018.

Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO9	SO/W
April/March	0	3	.000	8.37	5	5	0	0	0	0	23.2	27	22	22	5	23	2	26	0	0	0	117	2.113	9.9	1.13
May	3	1	.750	3.76	5	5	0	0	0	0	26.1	31	11	11	1	10	0	24	1	0	1	116	1.557	8.2	2.40
June	2	2	.500	2.83	5	5	0	0	0	0	28.2	22	11	9	1	14	0	31	3	0	0	123	1.256	9.7	2.21
July	2	2	.500	6.08	5	5	0	0	0	0	23.2	25	17	16	5	15	1	19	2	0	2	113	1.690	7.2	1.27
August	1	1	.500	3.98	6	5	0	0	0	0	31.2	34	14	14	1	9	0	38	0	0	1	137	1.358	10.8	4.22
Sept/Oct	2	1	.667	4.37	5	4	0	0	0	0	22.2	24	12	11	1	5	0	23	0	0	1	94	1.279	9.1	4.60

As for Gibson, it always felt like he was on the precipice of figuring out his slider and becoming a very good pitcher until he finally did it in 2018.

Then he fell ill in 2019 and everything went to hell again. And he was absolutely terrible in 2020, too.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards
2018	30	MIN	AL	10	13	.435	3.62	32	32	0	0	0	0	196.2	177	88	79	23	79	2	179	4	0	8	826	118	4.13	1.302	8.1	1.1	3.6	8.2	2.27
2019	31	MIN	AL	13	7	.650	4.84	34	29	0	0	0	0	160.0	175	99	86	23	56	0	160	7	0	8	706	93	4.26	1.444	9.8	1.3	3.2	9.0	2.86
2020	32	TEX	AL	2	6	.250	5.35	12	12	0	1	1	0	67.1	73	44	40	12	30	1	58	6	0	1	301	86	5.39	1.530	9.8	1.6	4.0	7.8	1.93

 

8 hours ago, Danchat said:

Yeah, turned it around... with the Yankees!

And I do know about how bad Gibby was at the end of 2019, he was clearly not in condition to pitch by the end (though from what I could tell he was healthy for at least the first half of the season, and he was still shaky), yet they still kept throwing him out there. I was 100% fine with him being let go... but my point still stands that we didn't maximize him. 

Lynn was terrible to start out because he didn't have a spring training.  He came into camp quite late, so he was behind to start the season.  

[AceWrigley]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

We really are suffering recency bias this year. Big time.

It's probably because we are all so disappointed with this season as we were expecting a run at the post season again. I'm shocked, mad, disappointed; and coupled with a product (mlb baseball) that produces less and less action on the field, it becomes less fun to participate. Kicking the proverbial dog feels good. Thanks to beer, it's not a total disaster.

[Linus]

12 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Cleveland hasn’t invested high draft capital in pitching either, and I’m sure Falvey has that philosophy in mind. They developed talent from unlikely sources like minor trades, waiver wire, and late round picks. They earned the benefit of the doubt IMO after they cobbled together competitive pitching staffs with spare parts. Unfortunately we backed the wrong horses in the race this year.

. @Mike Sixelhas mentioned this several times…. It’s really hard to be right every year when you’re replacing 2-3 starters and half of the bullpen. 

How many teams successfully build good pitching staffs in this method?  I think it’s important to note Cleveland did for a specific period of time and may have gotten fortunate. As for replacing starters and half a bullpen every year who’s responsibility is that?

[Number3]

If they would just spend more time working on their spin rate the rest would take care of itself. Just kidding. Fact is this whole team is  very erratic both on the mound and at the plate. I don't think Rocco helps by constantly changing lineups. Not really good news but this seems to be an overall year of mediocrity except for the Babe Ruth guy that plays for the Angels. Cubs just lost 11 in a row. There really is not that big of a difference between winning and losing. I don't think the Twins have had a single player get "hot" all year. They just seem to muddle their way through the games half way expecting to lose.

[Dodecahedron]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Their top 3 starters were Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda. All of which came back this year. Did you mean Rich Hill who was the exact type of signing you've spent the last 3 months complaining about? 

You're proving my point. You're using 20/20 hindsight, and not even very well. May and Hill are the only guys from last year's staff who would be helping this year. 

Ridiculous.  I always wanted Rich Hill to stay here.

You say I am using 20/20 hindsight, yet saying my hindsight is wrong?  I said before that you seem to be saying any random thing that pops into your mind.  Calm down, my opinions are as legitimate as yours are.

May and Hill are not the only guys from last year who would be helping this year.  Nearly every pitcher who left last year is doing better now, even Odorizzi is playing better than most of the Twins pitching staff.

So think about it.  The Twins had a top pitching staff, let everyone go, and those players went on to be even better.  This isn't a problem to you because the previous years seemed OK?  Strange.  This should be a problem to you regardless.

[Brock Beauchamp]

32 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

So think about it.  The Twins had a top pitching staff, let everyone go, and those players went on to be even better.  This isn't a problem to you because the previous years seemed OK?  Strange.  This should be a problem to you regardless.

While mistakes were obviously made and I disagreed with some of those moves, the bolded is hyperbolic and incorrect.

Rich Hill is not better this season, his ERA is way up from the shortened 2020 season. Trevor May is roughly the same guy, maybe having a slightly better season, hard to get a read on a reliever in 25-30 innings. Matt Wisler is not in the league AFAIK. Sergio Romo is markedly worse. Clippard isn't pitching. Odorizzi is better... I guess? At least he's on the mound, which he wasn't last season (I wanted Odorizzi back, doubly so after he signed that contract).

I believe we can criticize the front office for making flat-out incorrect decisions such as "Matt Shoemaker over anybody" and "JA Happ over Jake Odorizzi" without making false statements to get that point across.