MLB Trade Deadline: Will This Market Work Against the Twins' Agenda?

[Dman]

7 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You read my mind.  After, I listed what are basically assumptions, I was going to add the FO could take another direction if they assume they can establish two MLB pitchers this year.  That's what I was thinking at the start of this year before we had so many injuries.  At this point, I was thinking in terms of the preserving their jobs as well as the path most likely to result in success.  Pitchers often take time to become effective at the ML level so that's a relatively high risk plan. 

If they pass on a good return and don't have a great 2022, that's when Falvey and Levine's job would be in question if I were the Pohlads.  If Berrios simply prefers to be elsewhere you are left with nothing.  Yes, you could massively overpay and "get him at any cost" but that's bad management and leads to lost jobs.  Keep in mind, the keep them plan makes no sense unless you trade away key future assets and/or are willing to increase payroll to the point it hurts because this team needs help.  So, you have to present a plan to increase spending after two horrible years financially and risk the future.  The other plan has financial relief for 2022 and not have what would be significant exposure in 2023.

In addition, they would have lot assets that COULD have impacted our success for several years.  You can spend the money you would have spent on Berrios elsewhere.  Perhaps even more effectively and you have passed up adding significant assets even if you use them to trade for a SP.  I think they do it of the return is good which does not mean blown away.  However, that's just my opinion.  We are going to see in a few weeks although we will never really know what they were offered.

I agree with your analysis and the factual evidence is compelling as well.  For me though the calculus can change given the player. Berrios has been a durable pitcher and he has pitched under a 4.00 ERA pretty much every season.  He might not be an ace but you might be replacing him with an older injury prone pitcher that won't even give you back his level of production and you would likely have to pay top dollar to get a pitcher close to Berrios level and you might have to go three or four years.  It seems less risky to just pay that money or a little more for the younger more durable player Berrios and tack on a few more years to that deal.

I get that if you Extend him and as of now that is no certainty either that you lose out on any prospects and that has to be calculated in.  If the Twins received a Top 100 player and another close to ready player with maybe a lottery ticket thrown in plus spending the 20M per year on an older starting pitching free agent they could come out ahead, but that is a dangerous plan for 2022 because after all of that you still likely need one more FA starter and there is no guarantee the prospects work out (i.e. Alex Meyer, Vance Worley).  So there is risk both ways IMO.

If there is no extending him then their hands might be tied.  He would give them help in 2022 but the draft comp pick would take too long to help the current core of players so that strategy is even more risky IMO. 

I do think that if he is willing to do 5\100 to 5\120 extension the Twins should do it.  He can bridge the gap to the half dozen high quality young arms the Twins currently have in the upper levels and if the Twins do find a pitching pipeline then they could always trade Berrios later into his contract as well.

To your point there may just be too many pitching holes to plan on getting much of anything out of the 2022 season.  In that case again your trade scenario makes more sense as long as they get pitching back.  I guess we will know more in the next three weeks.  Thanks for the fun thought exercise! 

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, Dman said:

I agree with your analysis and the factual evidence is compelling as well.  For me though the calculus can change given the player. Berrios has been a durable pitcher and he has pitched under a 4.00 ERA pretty much every season.  He might not be an ace but you might be replacing him with an older injury prone pitcher that won't even give you back his level of production and you would likely have to pay top dollar to get a pitcher close to Berrios level and you might have to go three or four years.  It seems less risky to just pay that money or a little more for the younger more durable player Berrios and tack on a few more years to that deal.

I get that if you Extend him and as of now that is no certainty either that you lose out on any prospects and that has to be calculated in.  If the Twins received a Top 100 player and another close to ready player with maybe a lottery ticket thrown in plus spending the 20M per year on an older starting pitching free agent they could come out ahead, but that is a dangerous plan for 2022 because after all of that you still likely need one more FA starter and there is no guarantee the prospects work out (i.e. Alex Meyer, Vance Worley).  So there is risk both ways IMO.

If there is no extending him then their hands might be tied.  He would give them help in 2022 but the draft comp pick would take too long to help the current core of players so that strategy is even more risky IMO. 

I do think that if he is willing to do 5\100 to 5\120 extension the Twins should do it.  He can bridge the gap to the half dozen high quality young arms the Twins currently have in the upper levels and if the Twins do find a pitching pipeline then they could always trade Berrios later into his contract as well.

To your point there may just be too many pitching holes to plan on getting much of anything out of the 2022 season.  In that case again your trade scenario makes more sense as long as they get pitching back.  I guess we will know more in the next three weeks.  Thanks for the fun thought exercise! 

I am thinking that they would have extended him by now if he was willing.  Of course, I have no way of knowing and that's why I have left other options open.  There are a lot of players who want every dime they can get.  Waiting for free agency has a risk component for the player but many of them are willing to take that risk.  I really like Berrios.  How many pitchers have his durability.  He is still young and he has performed quite well.  However, if he wants to be elsewhere, he will be.

[bean5302]

Berrios has the same fWAR as Stephen Strasburg from 2017-2021.

Zack Wheelers stat line from his 3 years prior to the new contract in free agency was 3.94 ERA, 3.68 FIP with an average of 154 innings. Berrios is every bit as good as that.

[Vanimal46]

Pretty sound logic to me in the OP. I don’t think the deadline will be electric for our Twins. The only expiring contract performing well is Cruz, and his market will be limited to maybe 1 or 2 teams.

Andrelton Simmons’ slash line in 56 games since returning from Covid: .216/.273/.295 - there won’t be teams lining up thinking he’s an upgrade.

Hansel Robles update, per @Matthew Tayloron Twitter:

 

Pineda hasn’t looked good in a while, and probably still fighting through injury today. The others are not worth mentioning other than DFA once a prospect is ready. 

[RpR]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Just curious what are the three reasons the twins went from 100 wins to the 100 losses you are projecting?  

For you and LA Vikes fan:

I do not know if you were around in the seventies when excluding 1970 when the twins were as good as the 2019 team, the Twins never won more than 85 games.   They won the World Series in 1987  but even at that it was not till 1988 that they won more than 85 games.

They brought in a varied herd of players that were the next great thing but while some were  pretty good the team was on the best years, mediocre.  

If they dump Cruz, Donaldson and Simmons they will be back to at best , the 85 win Twins and probably a LOT worse.   Kaat commented that the White Sox were beating the Twins with simple basic baseball -- good base running, some thing the Twins do not have.

If they lose the home run hitters and good fielding players, they will be worse than they are now.

Schoop is/was far better than Arraez in fielding and he now has 16 HR, 49 RBI and .274 BA, / C.J. Cron has 11 HR, 32 RBI, .252 BA   / Rosario -- I will say his bat may, may be similar  to Larnach but his arm (fielding ability) is far, far better / only Gonzalez has gone down hill from that team.

They were part of the reason the Twins did what they did in 2019;  if the Twins dump Cruz, Donaldson and Simmons it will be the final nail in the coffin of turning the Twins into  a .500 team on the best years, I.E. a return to the Seventies.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I will harbor no excuses. It is their job to make this franchise better. If they don't deal a couple guys, they will have failed. 

You don't get better when your best players a playing for other teams.

 

[DocBauer]

Just sticking to the OP due to basic principal and because I worked today and spent the evening talking Twins with my father so no time to read and address all the posts here...at least not yet...lol.

Tom, you are 100% right with everything you laid out. And you are also 100% wrong as well. HUH?! How can that be? Simply because 2020 is still casting a shadow over 2021 and there is another, potential, cloud hanging over 2022. The simple truth is we are so in the dark as to what other franchises are thinking. There is every reason for a contending team to look at a healthy Pineda...with another couple starts to show he's BACK...and offer something at least decent back. Same with Cruz. I mean, we're only talking half a season, but we're also talking about a real difference maker for a run.

So who is willing and able to step forward?

Happ is LH and breathing with a good history and a good 1st month in 2021. A couple solid starts before the deadline increases his value, and teams will be interested, but he's not going to bring anything special back.

Does any contending team need a true SS? I just don't know if Simmons has value right now.

Robles has been pretty good for most of the year until the Twins pitched him 4 consecutive days. Suddenly he looked like a mediocre middle guy after that. So what's his value in trade vs keeping or re-signing?

Funny how Aaron and John were talking in their latest podcast how the Twins were at the epicenter of the trade market. They could move some expiring contracts and get what they can, OR, just auction off almost anyone and everyone. But then you look at a list of about 8-10 guys you start to wonder why in hell you'd do that because you'd have a good team if you kept most of them.

Barring a surprise offer, the Twins just aren't going to do much or get much. The decision they have to make is gaining a couple A level prospects with some potential...think another Rijo arm...OR, grab a bullpen arm at AA or AAA who was a failed SP making the transition to RP with some upside. Think an Alcala type. 

Sorry, but I'd take the BP options vs a low A flier because I trust the FO draft strategy and the good looking arms in the system and look for bona-fide,  interesting BP arms that could help the next season or two. 

NOT going to debate at this moment about promotion and health the Twins could have a half dozen arms to audition for 2022. 

Donaldson is a real key here. Keep him and you still have a quality player offensively and defensively for the next 2yrs who may transition to more 1B and DH. Trade him, give him a chance to play for a contending team, you MIGHT get something back. I'd take a quality RH OF with decent defense or a decent arm in a heartbeat. I might even take back a bag of balls back if it meant salary relief for 2022 and beyond.  But he still has value. So if you have to pay something like $25-30M to make a trade, do you really gain enough $ savings/value to make the deal worthwhile?

Other than Donaldson,  I think the Twins trading will be small, understated, and we will hope for a decent arm of some sort, or decent RH hitting OF. The biggest reward, as hard as it is to digest, is advancing what we have and auditioning them all to get ready for 2022 and beyond.  The re-tool is already taking place. And despite W/L how much fun could it be watching Larnach, AK, Jeffers, Gordon, Ober, Winder, Duran (hopefully), Miranda and others the rest of the year?

I don't WANT to trade Cruz or Donaldson. These guys are GOOD. But one is probably not coming back next year no matter. And one is good enough to help a team get over the hump offensively and defensively.  Hello Mets! 

I'm actually OK if Donaldson stays because he has value. But I'm also OK if he's gone for $ relief.  My only question is where does $ relief start and end that makes sense?

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, RpR said:

For you and LA Vikes fan:

If they dump Cruz, Donaldson and Simmons they will be back to at best , the 85 win Twins and probably a LOT worse.   Kaat commented that the White Sox were beating the Twins with simple basic baseball -- good base running, some thing the Twins do not have.

If they lose the home run hitters and good fielding players, they will be worse than they are now.

Schoop is/was far better than Arraez in fielding and he now has 16 HR, 49 RBI and .274 BA, / C.J. Cron has 11 HR, 32 RBI, .252 BA   / Rosario -- I will say his bat may, may be similar  to Larnach but his arm (fielding ability) is far, far better / only Gonzalez has gone down hill from that team.

They were part of the reason the Twins did what they did in 2019;  if the Twins dump Cruz, Donaldson and Simmons it will be the final nail in the coffin of turning the Twins into  a .500 team on the best years, I.E. a return to the Seventies.

Cron was 14 th in Fwar among position on that team with .3 WAR.  Rosario was 11^th with 1.2 Fwar and Schoop was 10^th with 1.3.  You are contributing a turn around of approximately 40 wins/losses to 3 players that produced 2.8 Fwar.  I would add that Sano had 2.7 Fwar which is basically as much as the 3 of them combined.  Kepler has 4.4 FWAR.  I would say the drop in production among Sano and Kepler is far more impactful than losing Rosario / Schoop and Cron.  Of course, there is always the fact that Rosario is now playing at replacement level so he would a detriment if he were still here.

A lot of things have contributed to a poor Twins seasons.  The three players you listed are not in the top 10, IMO.  They don't need to dump Simmons.  He can be a place holder until it is determined if Lewis / Javier / etc can replace him.  However, he has been worth .1 WAR.  Offense counts for SSs too.  They will find a different solution next year.  Miranda wont be as good as Donaldson next year but Miranda in his 2nd year vs a 37 year old Donaldson is 2023 is hard to say.  What we can say is that Miranda and $20M invested elsewhere is probably a better combination. 

[Whitey333]

Great comments guys.  I'm beginning to think the Twins FO will not make many moves.  Just some obvious ones on expiring contracts.  They dug themselves a huge hole by signing bargain basement pitchers that few teams want.  The risk they make is by doing too little, or "retooling" will hurt attendance and further alienate a fan base.  I think they have a tough job ahead of them but that's what they get paid for.  Let's hope they don't swing and miss at the trade deadline/ off-season.  The CBA is another story worthy of another time

[Trov]

For me the biggest question mark is the next CBA and what it will look like.  There will be a work stoppage, question will be how long.  I think less of an issue will be gate money, depending on how long the stoppage is, but how will money look after it.  Will there be as strong of tax, or possibly a salary cap, and how will current contracts be affected by those rules.  

I do not think the single trade deadline will hurt the Twins, I think it will help.  I get the thought of keeping near MLB prospects for insurance purposes, but I also feel there will be much less sellers because that extra month to win games makes a big difference in teams decisions.  So with less sellers and possibly more buyers, that creates a sellers market.  Even if you cannot get MLB ready guy, you can swoop up lower level guys, and then if needed swap them during offseason for MLB guys.  This particular season though with work stoppage expected it is not like you need MLB ready guy right away either for a quick reload. 

[bean5302]

Why is there a guaranteed work stoppage? The current CBA expires on December 1. Players and owners should be pretty desperate to prevent that from happening after the huge losses from 2020. I can hope both sides got enough of the bitter taste of not playing they'll figure things out. That said, it really does feel like the MLBPA is totally dysfunctional to me.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Why is there a guaranteed work stoppage? The current CBA expires on December 1. Players and owners should be pretty desperate to prevent that from happening after the huge losses from 2020. I can hope both sides got enough of the bitter taste of not playing they'll figure things out. That said, it really does feel like the MLBPA is totally dysfunctional to me.

How is the MLBPA dysfunctional? I'm curious.

[RpR]

12 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Cron was 14 th in Fwar among position on that team with .3 WAR.  Rosario was 11^th with 1.2 Fwar and Schoop was 10^th with 1.3.  You are contributing a turn around of approximately 40 wins/losses to 3 players that produced 2.8 Fwar.  I would add that Sano had 2.7 Fwar which is basically as much as the 3 of them combined.  Kepler has 4.4 FWAR.  I would say the drop in production among Sano and Kepler is far more impactful than losing Rosario / Schoop and Cron.  Of course, there is always the fact that Rosario is now playing at replacement level so he would a detriment if he were still here.

 

How well has Sano done this year, compare Schoop's current stats to Arraez, compare Rosario's RBI's, real numbers not pie-in-the sky computer game to Larnach.

People do not pay the price for a game nowadays to watch school boys learn to play on a losing team.  As I said, I have been watching the Twins for too many years, an entire decade of the seventies, of also ran mediocrity, which is what dumping the vets for more years of we cannot afford good guys crap it will be.

Computer stats are like a bookies book , numbers  never lie, yeah right.

[Vanimal46]

Another factor that will potentially go against the Twins’ favor this deadline is other surprise selling teams. The Cubs have been playing badly enough to start selling. And their assets (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Kimbel) are better than ours. 

[In My La Z boy]

15 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Another factor that will potentially go against the Twins’ favor this deadline is other surprise selling teams. The Cubs have been playing badly enough to start selling. And their assets (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Kimbel) are better than ours. 

Their assets all expire at years end - if you include our assets as being Berrios Rogers and Buxton we've got them beat on assets. Put it another way - if we suck this bad next year, and we still own these 3 valuable assets - we would be on par with this years Cubs. And - if that were to happen, we blew it. 

[Dodecahedron]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Another factor that will potentially go against the Twins’ favor this deadline is other surprise selling teams. The Cubs have been playing badly enough to start selling. And their assets (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Kimbel) are better than ours. 

That's an understatement.

The Twins unloaded during the offseason, which was a terrible idea as they unloaded talent but not salary.  Anything they unload now will cut close to the bone.  The players the Twins should want to get rid of are the players few teams would want.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, In My La Z boy said:

Their assets all expire at years end - if you include our assets as being Berrios Rogers and Buxton we've got them beat on assets. Put it another way - if we suck this bad next year, and we still own these 3 valuable assets - we would be on par with this years Cubs. And - if that were to happen, we blew it. 

I wouldn’t say that. I just said their expiring contracts. They could opt to sell Kyle Hendricks with 3 reasonable years left on his deal, Chaffin has 1.5 years left, and Joc Pederson has a $10 million option in 2022. 

[Mike Sixel]

If people think the Twins' FO had a bad off season....the Cubs. Ugh. I blame the owner, given his comments, but man.

Anyway, I'll say it again. It is the FO's job to make the system better. They will have failed if the don't deal some of the expiring contracts.