2021 MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects: 21-30

[Andrew Thares]

As we enter draft week, it is time to get to know some of the top prospects available in this year's draft class. If you haven't read them already, check out Part 1 and Part 2 of this series.

30. Thatcher Hurd, Mira Costa HS, CA

Pos: RHP | Height: 6’4” | Weight: 205 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: UCLA

Scouting Grades

Fastball: 55 Curveball: 55 Slider: 50 Changeup: 55 Control: 55 Overall: 55

There are certainly pitchers with better stuff that are ranked lower than Thatcher Hurd on this list, but few high school pitchers, or even college pitchers for that matter, are as well rounded as him. What makes Hurd’s relative polish at this point so amazing is the fact that he is still new to pitching, even compared to other high school arms. This just shows how well he has taken to the position, and that there should still be a lot more room to grow. 

Hurd’s best pitch is his curveball, which he is very comfortable with and has the ability to throw it for strikes. He pairs that with a fastball that does not pop, typically in the 90-92 range, but he locates it well, and is a likely candidate to gain velocity. He will also occasionally mix in both a slider and a changeup, with the latter showing more promise.

29. Peyton Stovall, Haughton HS, LA

Pos: 2B | B/T: L/R | Height: 6' 0" | Weight: 180 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Arkansas

Scouting Grades

Hit: 65 Power: 55 Run: 50 Throw: 40 Field: 50 Overall: 55

While it is an almost certainty that Peyton Stovall will need to move from shortstop to second base as a pro, due to his lack of arm strength, that should not be a big concern for teams, as Stovall is more than capable with the bat to handle second, as Stovall’s hit tool is without question one of the best in this entire draft class.

Stovall has one of those pure looking strokes from the left side of the plate that you would not get tired of watching. He loads with a solid base, and uses a small leg kick, but he gets his front foot down plenty early to attack any pitch. Despite not being one of the biggest players out there, Stovall generates a lot of bat speed and should have above-average power at the next level.

28. Jud Fabian, Florida

Pos: OF | B/T: R/L | Height: 6' 2" | Weight: 190 lbs | Age: 20

Previously Drafted: Never

Scouting Grades

Hit: 45 Power: 60 Run: 55 Throw: 50 Field: 60 Overall: 55

For those that follow the college game, Jud Fabian is probably a name you are quite familiar with. He has been talked about as a top draft prospect for a couple years now, thanks in part to his rare combination of power and defensive prowess in the outfield. In 132 games in his college career at Florida, Fabian has belted 32 home runs while also being one of the best defensive centerfielders at the college level. What makes that even more impressive, is Fabian is actually a year younger than his class, as he skipped his senior year of high school and enrolled in Florida a year early.

After working as a catalyst for what was the number one team in the country before the pandemic ended the season in 2020, Fabian entered this season as a potential top ten pick. However, that hype has since simmered as Fabian has shown some struggles with the bat, primarily with strikeouts, this spring. While this has dropped him down boards, this could be great news for the Twins, as Fabian fits perfectly into their early round draft profile.

27. Will Bednar, Mississippi State

Pos: RHP | Height: 6’2” | Weight: 229 lbs | Age: 21

Previously Drafted: Never

Scouting Grades

Fastball: 55 Curveball: 50 Slider: 60 Changeup: 50 Control: 55 Overall: 55

It is hard to think of a hotter name right now than Mississippi State pitcher Will Bednar. Not only did his Bulldog squad just win their first national championship last week, but he was a massive player in that effort, as the Bulldogs won all five of his starts during the NCAA Tournament, including the deciding game three of the College World Series Finals behind his six-shutout innings. I was tempted to move Bednar a little further up this list after that performance, but I decided to stick with the rankings that I had prior to starting this series.

Despite only being a sophomore, Bednar is draft eligible as he turned 21 in June. Had the draft not been moved back from its normal early June date, Bednar would have not been able to come out this year.

On the mound, Bednar has a solid four pitch mix that is highlighted by a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a dominating slider. He also mixes in a curveball and a changeup that both show some promise, but are still a work in progress. Bednar also has above-average control, as he had just 2.7 BB/9 in 107 and 2/3 career innings of work at the college level.

26. Michael McGreevy, UC Santa Barbara

Pos: RHP | Height: 6’4” | Weight: 215 lbs | Age: 21

Previously Drafted: Never

Scouting Grades

Fastball: 55 Curveball: 60 Slider: 50 Changeup: 50 Control: 65 Overall: 55

It will likely be a very happy birthday for Michael McGreevy, who turns 21 just a couple days before Day 1 of the 2021 MLB Draft. McGreevy has had about as successful a college career as any pitcher in this draft. As a freshman he was named a Freshman All-American after putting up a 1.94 ERA in 60 and 1/3 innings coming out of the bullpen. As a sophomore he moved to the starting rotation, where he had a 0.99 ERA in 27 and 1/3 innings across four starts before the season was suspended. In 2021, he finally got a chance to show his stuff over a full season as a starting pitcher and he delivered, posting a 2.92 ERA over 101 and 2/3 innings.

Like Bednar, McGreevy is a pitcher that lacks a truly dominant pitch, but has four average or better pitches, with a fastball and a breaking ball combo that are both above average. Unlike Bednar, it is McGreevy’s curveball, not his slider, that is his go to strikeout pitch. The best part of McGreevy’s game, however, is his command. In 189 and 1/3 career innings pitched, McGreevy has only walked 31 batters, which is a BB/9 of 1.47. To put that in perspective, in 2019, the last full MLB season, only three qualified pitchers had a lower BB/9 than McGreevy did for his entire college career.

25. Lonnie White, Malvern Prep, PA

Pos: OF | B/T: R/R | Height: 6' 3" | Weight: 210 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Penn State

Scouting Grades

Hit: 50 Power: 60 Run: 65 Throw: 55 Field: 50 Overall: 55

Lonnie White is truly a dynamic athlete. Not only does he possess the much-coveted combination of power in speed from an outfielder, but he is also a four-star wide receiver prospect who is committed to Penn State to play both football and baseball. Offensively, there are some concerns, with swing in miss, but the biggest concern for teams might be the money it will take to get White to back out of his commitment to Penn State.

While White might have the build of a player destined to move to a corner outfield position, he has plenty of speed in the legs to handle centerfield at the next level. The big question might come down to how well his defensive instincts kick in at center, as it takes more than just speed to play that position. If he shows he has what it takes to stick there, White has future All-Star written all over him, if not, he should have no trouble being a plus defender in a corner outfield spot and possesses enough pop in the bat to play there as well.

24. Jaden Hill, LSU

Pos: RHP | Height: 6’4” | Weight: 234 lbs | Age: 21

Previously Drafted: 38th Round, 2018 (STL)

Scouting Grades

Fastball: 55 Slider: 55 Changeup: 65 Control: 50 Overall: 55

As a result of injuries in 2019 and 2021, along with the 2020 season being shortened as a result of Covid-19, we have not gotten to see much of Jaden Hill, as he only accumulated 51 and 1/3 innings pitched in his college career, posting a 4.21 ERA over that stretch. If you take Hill’s performance, or lack thereof, at face value it can be easy to question why he is in first round consideration, but this process is all about projecting what a player could do going forward, not purely what their stats say, though they can help with that process.

From what we have seen of Jaden Hill, he has potential front of the rotation starter potential written all over him. He possesses three clearly above average pitches, with his changeup being one of the best single pitches in the draft class. While both the fastball and slider play behind the changeup right now, they both have potential to play up from their current level with a little bit of work. Had Hill not had injury issues during his college career, it is possible that he could be in top ten, or even top five, consideration, his stuff is that good. However, that is not that case, and it could be a reason why a player of Hill’s talent level could slip all the way down to the Twins at pick 26.

23. Joshua Baez, Dexter Southfield HS, MA

Pos: OF | B/T: R/R | Height: 6' 4" | Weight: 220 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Vanderbilt

Scouting Grades

Hit: 45 Power: 65 Run: 50 Throw: 65 Field: 50 Overall: 55

Joshua Baez is one of the most boom-or-bust prospects in this draft. He possesses elite power with the bat, that potentially could be best in the entire draft class when he fully develops. Baez also has a cannon of an arm, which makes him a prototypical right field candidate. The main concern with Baez is whether he will ever develop the hit tool. If that doesn’t come, he will struggle to make his way up through the minor leagues. 

A great player comp for Joshua Baez is a slightly less athletic version of Aaron Judge, who had similar concerns about his ability to develop, despite the raw potential that he possessed, causing him to fall to the 32nd overall pick in the 2013 draft. Now, Judge certainly turned into about as much of a boom as he could have, so it is highly unlikely that Baez will ever become that caliber of a player, but he is still very young, having just turned 18 last month, so there is a lot of room to develop.

22. Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS, GA

Pos: SS/RHP | B/T: S/R | Height: 6' 3" | Weight: 200 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Clemson

Scouting Grades

Hit: 45 Power: 55 Run: 55 Throw: 65 Field: 55 Overall: 55

Fastball: 60 Curveball: 55 Slider: 50 Changeup: 50 Control: 50 Overall: 55

In my opinion, Bubba Chandler is the most intriguing player in this year’s draft class. Not only does he have potential to be a two-way player at both shortstop and as a pitcher, but he is also committed to play quarterback at Clemson. While Chandler is a much better baseball prospect than football prospect, the potential for him to play quarterback at a premier college football program like Clemson could make him a tough sign, especially with college athletes now being able to profit on name, image and likeness.

From a baseball perspective, Chandler is an excellent athlete who shouldn’t have any troubles sticking at short as a professional. He also has a strong arm and above-average power that give him high potential down the road. The issue with Chandler offensively is his hit tool, as there are mechanical issues with his swing that will need work, and if are not addressed properly could halt his progression.

While there is a lot of potential in Bubba Chandler’s future as a shortstop, it is viewed by many that he will more than likely end up as a pitcher long-term. While he is not as strong of a pure pitching prospect as other pitchers in the area of the draft, he still has more than enough ability on the mound to potentially be in late first round consideration, even for teams that see him as just a pitching only prospect. 

21. Will Taylor, Dutch Fork HS, SC

Pos: OF | B/T: R/R | Height: 6' 0" | Weight: 180 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Clemson

Scouting Grades

Hit: 55 Power: 50 Run: 70 Throw: 60 Field: 55 Overall: 55

Just like Bubba Chandler, Will Taylor is also a commit to the University of Clemson as both a baseball player and a football player. However, Taylor’s prominence as a football recruit is not as high as Chandler’s, so it might be easier to sign Taylor out of his commitment to college than Chandler.

Taylor is an exceptional all-around athlete, with speed that could match almost anyone else in the class. He also has a plus arm and good instincts in the outfield, that make him a very likely candidate to stick in centerfield long term.

With the bat, the hit tool is where he shines, as he did not struggle at all facing some of the top high school arms in the country last summer. The power is still a little behind, but Taylor has a great physical base to build off, thanks in large part to his wrestling career, and should not have issues adding more pop to his bat. However, even if that fails to progress much, Taylor should still be an impact player as a plus defender in center and a solid bat to back it up.

MLB Draft Prospect Rankings

2021 MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects: 31-40

2021 MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects: 41-50

View full article

[terrydactyls]

Joshua Baez is the biggest "boom or bust?".  Sounds like a Twins' pick to me.  And I'll predict bust.

[MN_ExPat]

15 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Joshua Baez is the biggest "boom or bust?".  Sounds like a Twins' pick to me.  And I'll predict bust.

I know the Twins are in the midst of a pretty awful season, but why would you say that about this kid? 

The odds are already stacked against all these young men... I won't ever say you can't say that or shouldn't think that way but, naysaying their dreams seems awful harsh just because management may have made some questionable decisions.

[terrydactyls]

4 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

I know the Twins are in the midst of a pretty awful season, but why would you say that about this kid? 

The odds are already stacked against all these young men... I won't ever say you can't say that or shouldn't think that way but, naysaying their dreams seems awful harsh just because management may have made some questionable decisions.

My comment was more about the Twins than the young man.  He appears to be a perfect Twins' pick based on past drafts.  And if the Twins do draft him, I predict a bust.  If anyone else picks him, he will blossom into the next Glad Guerrero Jr.  I apologize for making my original comment sound like I was disparaging Baez.

[MN_ExPat]

Just now, terrydactyls said:

My comment was more about the Twins than the young man.  He appears to be a perfect Twins' pick based on past drafts.  And if the Twins do draft him, I predict a bust.  If anyone else picks him, he will blossom into the next Glad Guerrero Jr.  I apologize for making my original comment sound like I was disparaging Baez.

All good, totally understand the sentiment.  Perhaps my fatal Twins fan flaw is that I'm an eternal optimist ?.

[terrydactyls]

11 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

All good, totally understand the sentiment.  Perhaps my fatal Twins fan flaw is that I'm an eternal optimist ?.

That is the very definition of a Twins' fan.

[Mike Sixel]

FWIW.........Fangraphs' new mock is up....they have the Twins taking 2 catchers.....2 more guys that can't play SS, CF, or pitch, in round 1 and 1+.

[Dman]

There isn't a ton of Centerfield depth in the system unless you consider that Lewis's ultimate position.  Celestino's numbers haven't been that great to this point if you ask me and while Whitefield has wheels his bat looks suspect as well.  Maciel is a 4th outfielder as he has no power and while they took a chance on Kiersey he has pretty much been an injured bust to this point.  So yeah if they could get a nice up the middle centerfielder I am all for it.

Still more than position players I would like to see a college pitcher or two that look like they could be fast movers to supplement the big team as quickly as possible.  I just don't think the Twins have enough pitching depth especially considering how many pitchers get injured during the year.  I don't know what we will have for leverage at the deadline but I would bank on getting a top performing position player at the deadline and focus on college pitching in the draft especially early in as teams just don't like to give up pitching in trades very easily.

I don't feel like now is a good time to invest in high school players early in the draft as we aren't in a long rebuild mode but more of a retool and win now mode.  If the Twins can get some pitching to work out they have good position players already at the MLB level and the higher MiLB levels.  Pitching depth is the only thing holding them back IMO.  Get some in this draft.

[RonCoomersOPS]

I'd be pretty pleased if we got McGreevy. Jonathan Mayo has us picking Gavin Williams from East Carolina, and I think I could get behind that pick pretty easily as well.