TD Midseason Top 20 Twins Prospect Rankings: 6-10

[Nash Walker]

The next segment of our midseason rankings highlights a breakout arm, a stout defender, multiple first round picks, and a hometown slugger. 

KEEP IN MIND: Alex Kirilloff, Ben Rortvedt, Nick Gordon, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach have or will soon graduate from prospect status. 

 

10. OF Matt Wallner (bats L, throws R)

Age: 23

ETA: 2023

2021 stats: 17 G, .333/.384/.621 (165 wRC+), 4 HR, 3 2B, 2 3B, 38% K, 6.8% BB

2021 preseason ranking: 13

Wallner’s history already made him a prospect to watch when the Twins selected him with the 39th overall pick in the 2019 draft. He grew up a Twins fan and starred at Forest Lake High School before committing to Southern Mississippi, where he hit a robust .337/.461/.652 in three seasons. Wallner smashed 58 homers and 39 doubles in 189 games for the Golden Eagles, flashing his immense power from the left side.

Wallner, listed at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, has already become a fear bat as a professional. He produced 31 extra-base hits in 65 games with a .357 on-base percentage in 2019 and was crushing before a wrist injury halted his season this summer. Wallner oozes raw pop, but his ability to hit for a high average and draw walks has raised his ceiling as a prospect. He’s hitting .274/.363/.487 in 82 minor-league games.

Spending most of his time in right field, Wallner projects as a middle-of-the-order corner outfielder, perhaps joining his counterparts Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the heart of Minnesota’s lineup. Healing from the wrist injury that has held him out since late May is in order first, but if he can return healthy and hitting, Wallner could easily work himself to Wichita (or even St.Paul) by season’s end. 

Minnesotans take a certain amount of pride in homegrown players. It remains true that the top six Minnesota-born bWAR leaders since 1961 all played for the Twins at some point. Hopefully Wallner follows that lead!

9. 1B Aaron Sabato (bats R, throws R)

Age: 22

ETA: 2023

2021 stats: 53 G, .184/.373/.291 (101 wRC+), 10 2B, 3 HR, 21% BB, 31% K

2021 preseason ranking: 8

Sabato fell to the Twins at pick No. 27 in the 2020 draft, perhaps due to questions about his defensive home. The Twins went slightly over slot to land the slugging first baseman, who hit .332/.459/.698 with 25 homers in 83 games at North Carolina. He walked in over 16% of his plate appearances and struck out under 20% of the time for the Heels, solidifying himself as one of the best pure hitters in college baseball. 

The Twins certainly have their type: large, powerful, excelling college bats are their M.O., and Sabato fits the bill. The 22-year-old hasn’t lived up to the first-round moxie just yet, as he’s hitting a paltry .184 with a .291 slugging percentage through 53 games for the Mighty Mussels. 

It’s hard to get excited about a slugging percentage below .300 in Low-A for such a coveted power bat, but Sabato has shown signs of a breakout. He’s incredible at controlling the strike-zone, evidenced by a tremendous .409 on-base percentage over his last 22 games. Sabato has walked 50 times this season, the most in the Low-A Southeast, tied with teammate Edouard Julien. 

Patience is the key here. Sabato is adjusting to professional baseball and everything that comes with it. His walk rate is encouraging and proves he has a strong idea of what to swing at. When he starts hitting those pitches in the zone, look out. Sabato has raw power for days. 

8.  RHP Josh Winder

Age: 24

ETA: 2021

2021 stats: 11 GS, 60 ⅓ IP, 1.94 ERA, 0.895 WHIP, 32% K, 5% BB

2021 preseason ranking: N/R

Winder could be the first, long-awaited product of the the Falvine pitching pipeline. Already displaying elite command through the minors, Winder added significant velocity to his fastball. Now throwing 95-97 with his heater and spotting up a great curveball and a developing changeup, Winder has become a legitimate starting pitching prospect. 

Winder was outstanding for Cedar Rapids in 2019 with a 2.65 ERA in 21 starts. The difference: a strikeout rate of 24%. The walk rate was remained similarly low, but Winder’s strikeout numbers have soared. He’s punching out 32% of batters at the highest levels in the minors. Winder was the best pitcher in the Double-A Central before his promotion to St.Paul, where he carried a no-hitter into the sixth in his first start.

There’s not much more Winder can do to impress. His ERA is sub-2, his strikeout rate is elite and he’s walked just 12 of 228 batters. He’s completely broken out in an extremely exciting way. 

This is how they drew it up. Finding starters with already-great command and helping to increase their velocity is the ticket to building a pipeline of impact pitching. Winder put in the work and is being rewarded in a huge way. There’s a very good chance he’ll get the opportunity to pitch for the Twins later this summer and solidify himself into their plans for 2022. Giddy up. 

7. OF Gilberto Celestino (bats R, throws L)

Age: 22

ETA: Arrived

2021 stats: 15 G w/MIN: .163/.200/.349 (46 wRC+), 2 HR, 18% K, 4% BB

2021 preseason ranking: 11

Uniquely, Celestino has moved up our prospect board despite looking mostly overmatched for the Twins. His defense in center is evidently solid-to-elite and his bat has shown signals of life. Celestino is sporting a .963 OPS over his last 19 plate appearances. His promotion was undoubtedly premature, but Celly has steadily improved since getting the call.

Celestino’s right-handed swing packs a lot of punch. He generates power with a large but controlled leg kick, and the ball flys when he makes contact. His upside offensively lies in that deceptive power and a low strikeout rate through the minors. There’s hope that a .265/.325/.400 hitter lies within for Celestino, which would make him a quality regular with great defense in center. 

Byron Buxton has treated Twins fans by flashing his unbelievable tools and world-best defense in centerfield for years. Celestino likely won’t reach those heights, but there’s reason to be excited about Celly and his future for the Twins in center and at the plate. 

6. SS Keoni Cavaco (bats R, throws R)

Age: 20

ETA: 2024

2021 stats: 30 G, .259/.331/.339 (90 wRC+), 4 2B, 3B, HR, 8.9% BB, 27% K

2021 preseason ranking: 7

Cavaco has begun a rehab assignment with the FCL Twins after missing nearly a month with a concussion. Cavaco was starting to heat up, hitting .344/.400/.438 with a double and a triple in nine games before the injury. 

Drafted out of Eastlake High School in Chula Vista, California in 2019, Cavaco was touted as a high-upside shortstop with tools for days. He struggled in his first taste of pro ball, hitting just .172 with a .470 OPS in 92 plate appearances with the FCL Twins. 

Cavaco just turned 20, is incredibly athletic and stands at 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds. He’s what you would describe as a “raw” prospect, one that clearly has the attributes to grow into a star. The Twins bought into the tools when they took him with the 13th overall pick. 

After Royce Lewis, another first-round high school shortstop, there may not be another player in this system with more upside than Cavaco.

Other Rankings:

Top prospects 1`6-20

Top prospects 11-15

CHECK BACK FOR THE TOP 5!

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[Dman]

I would have Winder right behind Balazovich in the rankings if it were me.  Granted Winder is a couple of years older but his stuff seems to play as well if not better than Jordan's.  At the very least I think 8 is too low.

The Wallner assessment is way to Rosie.  You left out the near 40% K-rate and 500 BABIP.  He was due for some major regression he just got hurt before it happened.  I am not saying Matt is a bad prospect but he has some serious flaws to overcome yet IMO.

I am excited about Keoni.  Mainly excited about his speed.  The bat has looked solid.  He is not hitting for much power yet but the K rate is under 30%.  He could stand to walk more but he hasn't had much time in pro ball so I am betting he will improve all the way around.  I am hoping the bat will be for real and that he comes into his power as then he will be a true 5 tool player.

[roger]

Will second Dman’s comment that Winder is too low at #8.  Maybe it is due to how bad the pitching is on the Twins, but the best pitcher in his AA division should be our #1 pitching prospect...at least in my opinion.  So if Lewis is #1, I have Winder #2.

As for all these big power bats that strike out all the time and either can’t, or shouldn’t play defense, I would have them much lower.  That includes Rooker, Wallner, and Sabato.

[Major League Ready]

So, Miranda has moved into the top 5.  That's a big jump and potentially a big boost to the organization at some point.  Where Roger's points are concerned I just want to say ditto.  I did not like the Sabato pick.  That's just too high for a guy with minimal defensive value.

[Seth Stohs]

Hopefully as people see the Top 5 soon, others will post their Top 10s as well. 

[jmlease1]

what concerns me about Sabato is he's older for his level and he's struggling. Hard to see him as a top ten guy right now: he's not playing well, he's not an inexperienced kid, and he's at one of the lowest levels in the minors. Yes, he's drawing walks but he's not making contact. That's a rough K rate. Maybe he's one of those guys that is really struggling not having a season last year, but he's 50 games in and looks rough. Top Ten based on draft position, walks, and hope that he's about to break out? Meh.

I'm always rooting for our prospects, but he's not looking strong at all. 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

what concerns me about Sabato is he's older for his level and he's struggling. Hard to see him as a top ten guy right now: he's not playing well, he's not an inexperienced kid, and he's at one of the lowest levels in the minors. Yes, he's drawing walks but he's not making contact. That's a rough K rate. Maybe he's one of those guys that is really struggling not having a season last year, but he's 50 games in and looks rough. Top Ten based on draft position, walks, and hope that he's about to break out? Meh.

I'm always rooting for our prospects, but he's not looking strong at all. 

Couldn't have said it better.  I thought he was a guy that was supposed to be good at barreling up pitch's, good at making contact.  He looks like he is guessing at the plate.  Like he is hoping or waiting on a straight fastball and cannot adjust his swing to breaking stuff at all.

He still has a good eye at the plate so not all is lost but honestly I think he needs to revamp that swing or buy a pair of glasses or something because his contact rate is just horrible.

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, Dman said:

I would have Winder right behind Balazovich in the rankings if it were me.  Granted Winder is a couple of years older but his stuff seems to play as well if not better than Jordan's.  At the very least I think 8 is too low.

The Wallner assessment is way to Rosie.  You left out the near 40% K-rate and 500 BABIP.  He was due for some major regression he just got hurt before it happened.  I am not saying Matt is a bad prospect but he has some serious flaws to overcome yet IMO.

I am excited about Keoni.  Mainly excited about his speed.  The bat has looked solid.  He is not hitting for much power yet but the K rate is under 30%.  He could stand to walk more but he hasn't had much time in pro ball so I am betting he will improve all the way around.  I am hoping the bat will be for real and that he comes into his power as then he will be a true 5 tool player.

I sure don't see Winder lower than Celestino and Cavaco.  Winder and Miranda have made this very interesting.  Based on this year I would have them 3&4 (behind Lewis/Balazovic) but should we put that much weight on a half year?  IDK I have watched a few of the games and those two are quite impressive.  Duran would round out the top 5 for me.

[Mike Sixel]

Add me to the list of Winder is way too low (or, he's not actually a legit SP prospect that people think is a number 3 or better)....and an older player who can't hit A ball is way too high (another bat first corner player in round 1, ugh).

[Taildragger8791]

14 hours ago, roger said:

As for all these big power bats that strike out all the time and either can’t, or shouldn’t play defense, I would have them much lower.  That includes Rooker, Wallner, and Sabato.

I'm with you, but who do you put these guys behind on the rankings then? There aren't better hitting prospects in the system, which to me is concerning because there is high risk attached to poor-contact hitters. I don't expect future major league starting-caliber hitters to struggle heavily with contact in the low minors, especially college bats.  It's like these guys are lacking in the raw 'hit' tool and hoping to develop it just enough to leverage their other tools, but that is really tough. Maybe I'm way off base though.

[Minny505]

16 hours ago, roger said:

As for all these big power bats that strike out all the time and either can’t, or shouldn’t play defense, I would have them much lower.  That includes Rooker, Wallner, and Sabato.

Nailed it Roger. We have seen high contact prospects "play up" when they get to MLB over the last few years, while low contact guys generally struggle. Rooker and Sano vs Polanco, Gordon, and Arraez, are recent Twins examples of this. We also see this league wide, not just in the Twins system, with guys like Alejandro Kirk, Nick Castellanos, or Adam Frazier, vs Bobby Dalbec, Alec Bohm, or Keston Hiura. 

Pair that with little-to-no defensive value and you have a recipe for disappointment.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

We should expect big "jumps" in the rankings this year, given how last year was completely lost and so nobody had much to go on. We heard a bunch about Winder being the Instructional League ace and Twins scouts have reportedly talked up Miranda forever, but it wasn't possible to determine how much substance there was. Now that play has started and we can make major corrections.

Winder does seem a bit low to me still. Canterino, Duran, Balazovic, Miranda, and Lewis are a compelling top five, but Winder might be ahead of Canterino at this point, due to concerns about the latter's health and questions about whether he is destined to ultimately be a (high leverage elite) reliever. In contrast, Winder seems like he could be a 2-3 starter, still with a hint of upside beyond that.

[jmlease1]

19 hours ago, Dman said:

I would have Winder right behind Balazovich in the rankings if it were me.  Granted Winder is a couple of years older but his stuff seems to play as well if not better than Jordan's.  At the very least I think 8 is too low.

The Wallner assessment is way to Rosie.  You left out the near 40% K-rate and 500 BABIP.  He was due for some major regression he just got hurt before it happened.  I am not saying Matt is a bad prospect but he has some serious flaws to overcome yet IMO.

I am excited about Keoni.  Mainly excited about his speed.  The bat has looked solid.  He is not hitting for much power yet but the K rate is under 30%.  He could stand to walk more but he hasn't had much time in pro ball so I am betting he will improve all the way around.  I am hoping the bat will be for real and that he comes into his power as then he will be a true 5 tool player.

Wallner is a little tough to assess right now. Unlike Sabato, he's making consistent contact and doing damage when he's putting the barrel on the ball. The K-rate is high and you'd like to see a few more walks, but he's at least hammering the ball in relatively limited action. You can argue small sample size on him in a couple of areas, good and bad. Sabato has literally one thing going for him right now: drawing walks.

Keoni just needs game time right now. He's young enough I just want him to get through a season of full pro ball and re-assess.

[Vanimal46]

To be honest I like the 11-15 group better than the 6-10 group. I’m echoing previous comments not liking the Wallner and Sabato ranking. If Larnach settles in at LF/RF and Kirilloff at 1B, they’re going to have a tough road to get to the show. Cavaco is still so raw that it scares me he’s ranked #6. 
 

I think we’ll be able to find a couple good years of #4/5 starting pitching out of the Ober, Sands, and Winder trio. 

[Dman]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Wallner is a little tough to assess right now. Unlike Sabato, he's making consistent contact and doing damage when he's putting the barrel on the ball. The K-rate is high and you'd like to see a few more walks, but he's at least hammering the ball in relatively limited action. You can argue small sample size on him in a couple of areas, good and bad. Sabato has literally one thing going for him right now: drawing walks.

Keoni just needs game time right now. He's young enough I just want him to get through a season of full pro ball and re-assess.

Agree on Wallner the sample size is way to small to tell anything significant that is why his BABIP could not normalize.  He was doing great things when he got contact but a 40% K rate means he was either swinging at pitches he shouldn't have or he could have contact problems as well.  I will agree he does not have Sabato type issues at least to this point but if he remains this type of player he won't make it to MLB.  Right now he reminds me of Adam Brett Walker III.  Guy won the League HR race multiple times but his K rate kept him from ever making it.  Wallner will have to improve significantly in the K and walk rate to make it.  Look to Brent Rooker as another example of K rate keeping a guy a down.  Maybe they both will overcome it but they face long odds unless they get the K rate under control IMO.