Game Recap: Twins 6, Royals 2

[Matthew Lenz]

The Twins snap their five game skid and take the Sunday matinee with a 6-2 victory over the Kansas City Royals. They improved to 34-48 this year on the back of a dominant start from Kenta Maeda. That and more in today’s recap.

Box Score

Kenta Maeda: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K (69% strikes)

Homeruns: Kepler (7), Polanco (10), Kirilloff (7)

Top 3 WPA: Maeda (.387), Polanco (.093), Kepler (.087)

Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs)

Maeda Dominates Royals Offense

Maeda only allowed one runner to get to third base and it was on a Sebastian Rivero 69 mile-per-hour bloop single to right field in the bottom of the second inning. In by far the best outing of his season, Maeda started 15 of 21 batters faced with first pitch strikes and generated 18 swings and misses over his six innings pitched.

As Jim Kaat pointed out during the broadcast on Bally Sports North, this was the first time since Maeda’s second start on April 7th that he was able to make it through six innings. Throughout the day Maeda was fooling Royals batters,  who sported a .222 expected batting average, with his slider generating 11 called strikes and whiffs on the pitch. Below, Rob “Pitching Ninja” Friedman, shows a great overlay on just why that pitch was so effective today.

After his last start, where the spin rates of his slider, fastball, and sinker dipped, there was some concern among an opposing fan base that maybe Maeda’s 2020 Cy Young caliber season was in part due to some “sticky stuff”.

It’s too early to know the exact science on just how much “sticky stuff” can impact spin rates but, for what it’s worth, Maeda’s slider was nasty today and had an average spin rate of 2493 which is close to the average spin rate of the same pitch during the 2020 season (2505).

The two runs the Royals scored came in the bottom of the ninth inning when Hansel Robles gave up a Dyson single with the bases loaded.

Twins Chase Brad Keller but Make Bullpen Pay

Today provided a good example of why advanced stats have meaning alongside more traditional stats. Keller was able to pitch through six-and-a-third innings walking just two and striking out seven despite a strike percentage of just 61%. 

Patience is a virtue, as they say, but for the Twins it’s their kryptonite as they are third in all of baseball at swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. Like Maeda, Keller never really faced in real threats from the seven baserunners he allowed, aside from the one he created after back-to-back headsy baserunning plays in the third and a Trevor Larnach two-strike, two-out single.

Keller's only other mistake on the day ended up 395 feet from home plate, which was one of three long balls on the day.

Richard Lovelady came in and allowed homeruns to Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff in the top of the seventh.

In all, four of the six runs came from the long ball with Larnach and Arraez pairing up for another RBI and run scored, respectively, in the top of the ninth giving the Twins their sixth run of the day.

Bullpen Usage Chart

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Coulombe	0	0	16	7	0	23
Duffey	0	0	13	0	0	13
Thielbar	16	0	0	0	0	16
Robles	0	34	0	0	19	53
Law	0	32	0	34	0	66
Colomé	14	0	17	0	0	31
Rogers	0	0	22	0	20	42
Alcala	0	19	0	0	18	37
Jax	0	0	0	88	0	88

 

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[mikelink45]

Excellent news, although Robles is one who still does not have my trust and I think his stats overstate his value.  It is a strange season when we celebrate that the KC ROYALS did not sweep us. 

[PDX Twin]

It's wonderful listening to Jim Kaat! (It was wonderful watching him pitch 50 years ago!)

He made a comparison of Arraez hitting style and ability to those of Pete Rose. That's one I hadn't heard or considered, but it seems on target to me. Pesky hitter with brilliant bat control and zone coverage. Always hits for average. No power, little speed, and a mediocre fielder. (But from what I've heard he has a more amiable personality.)

[twinfan]

Kaat was my favorite pitcher and is now my favorite announcer. He has a great pace and knowledge of the game. Good to see Maeda put in a good effort. Though I didn't think he would duplicate 2020, I didn't think he would struggle so much this year. And the relievers did well.

[jimbo92107]

Best part of the Twins season so far is Jim Kaat coming back to announce some games. Any chance he sticks around for a while?

Actually, there are a few little twinkles in the darkness of this season. Baily Ober looks legit, and Griffen Jax might be a pitcher. Seems like a long time ago, but Kirilloff and Larnach both are rookies, and Arraez is just in his what, second full year? Might even be some spark from the right side of the plate if the team brings up Jose Miranda soon.

Meanwhile, I do hope they deal Donaldson to the Mets. He belongs on a competing team. Sano just belongs elsewhere. He seems hopeless on this team. Deal Simmons, too. Don't waste him here. Stick Gordon at SS, then put Celestino in CF. Tell him not to dive for balls the rest of the season. Play like Larnach, like your bat is more important than saving a few fly balls from hitting the ground.

[USAFChief]

Really, really nice to hear Jim Kaat again. I wonder how many fans know Jim Kaat's MLB career spanned 25 years...and his broadcast career has lasted 35, including twice as an analyst for the ************** Yankees.

Anywho, he's absolutely fantastic behind a mike.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, jimbo92107 said:

Best part of the Twins season so far is Jim Kaat coming back to announce some games. Any chance he sticks around for a while?

Actually, there are a few little twinkles in the darkness of this season. Baily Ober looks legit, and Griffen Jax might be a pitcher. Seems like a long time ago, but Kirilloff and Larnach both are rookies, and Arraez is just in his what, second full year? Might even be some spark from the right side of the plate if the team brings up Jose Miranda soon.

Meanwhile, I do hope they deal Donaldson to the Mets. He belongs on a competing team. Sano just belongs elsewhere. He seems hopeless on this team. Deal Simmons, too. Don't waste him here. Stick Gordon at SS, then put Celestino in CF. Tell him not to dive for balls the rest of the season. Play like Larnach, like your bat is more important than saving a few fly balls from hitting the ground.

The Griffen Jax that has given up 22 hits and 6 BB's and has an ERA of 8.66, and just went 5 innings and gave up 6 runs to the Royals?  Ober looks like me maybe OK, but legit? I don't think anything he as done in the majors or minors screams legit.

 

 

[darwin22]

Small sample size with Griffen Jax-----only 5 games with only 1 start-------but his numbers...8.66 ERA/1.70 WHIP/ horrible K to BB rate (14-8) and 6 HR allowed-------but those numbers, imo dictate a demotion (possibly temporary) to Saint Paul with a promotion for Charlie Barnes.

I'll be first to admit that Barnes doesn't have the "IT factor" that other more heralded arms (Winder, Balazovic, Duran) but since the remainder of this season should be all about EVALUATION for 2022, Barnes, imo, deserves an opportunity to showcase his skills based on the following:

Pitching at AAA all season Barnes has started 10 games with a 4-2 record to go along with a respectable 3.76 ERA.  His WHIP is solid (1.23) and unlike Jax, he has an excellent K/BB rate (46-16).  Barnes has allowed 2 or less runs in 7 of his 10 starts.  

As for Ober, in his 4 starts (not counting the 2 vs. Chicago)--he has looked respectable despite only pitching a total of 17.33 IP in those outings.  ERA is 3.64 with a 1.267 WHIP and an excellent K to BB rate (19-3).  Problem is you just can't forget about those 2 starts vs. the Sox that he's got shelled:  7.1 IP/ ER allowed=9/ ERA=11.05/ WHIP: 1.64 with 5 HRs allowed.  From what I've seen from Ober his struggles stem from command and just overall confidence.  He appears reluctant to "trust his stuff" at times, thus falling behind in the count.  I for one, would like to see Baldelli & Johnson let Ober pitch past the 4th or 5th inning.  With the ASB break coming up next week, Ober has time to rest. Let the kid pitch.

[Monticore]

Good to see them get a win. Sorry I didn't get a chance to hear Kaat.

[DocBauer]

Kaat wasn't available in my area because of the KC blackout so that was a bummer. I love listening to him.

I don't know that the Maeda we had in 2020 is OUR Maeda, but what we have seen until today is also NOT the Maeda that pitched for the Dogers previously. Nor is the Maeda we've seen in 2021 the Maeda we saw in ST. So as far as I'm concerned, we still have a GOOD Maeda and he probably will be the rest of this season and next year. The bite is, like so much of this team/season, he wasn't himself the first half.

Larnach and Kirilloff continue to impress. 

If you don't think Polanco and Arraez are good players and part of the future, then I'm not sure what you've been watching. Or are you only looking for the negative?

I am NOT proclaiming Ober as the next great Twins pitcher. But the kid has put up video game numbers in the minors with IL stints and a FB that sat in the high 80's and low 90's. He worked very hard in the missed 2020 season to smooth out his mechanics to provide not only even better results, but to keep himself healthy. He reported once that he often didn't feel very good after starts at times. With his height and length, mechanics may be even more important. His hard work seems to have paid off as I've heard ZERO reports of injury and his velocity is up. 

Please drop the "extend him" arguements as his previous max IP was somewhere around 90. He missed ALL and everything in 2020 and only has a few GS in AAA before now. The Twins have been very aggressive with his promotion but are also being protective of his arm and development. They are brining him along with the idea of being part of 2022. And if you've actually watched him pitch, you can see something to be at least mildly excited about.

Jax is a pitch to contact pitcher with some decent stuff, good control, who has some ceiling, but has only been a full time pitcher starting in 2019, maybe 2018.. So he has very little full milb season time until a little under half a year at AAA before being promoted early to the ML due to necessity. Around some BAD innings, he's had some good performances as well. Right now, today, with an extremely SSS size in the minors, I'd have to say his ceiling is a 4th or 5th SP who probably fits best as a middle RP/swing man. He was drafted as a flier with his AF commitment and is behind others of his age. Doesn't mean there isn't a usable arm there, just getting a late start.

For those who blast the Twins for being slow to promote, I would tell you to look closer at Ober and re-consider Jax's situation.  They haven't been slow with Winder either if you check things out. Drafted in 2018 and missing all of 2020, he's at AAA right now and should be with the Twins sometime the second half this season.

You want Barnes to get a shot? Maybe he deserves one despite being a softer tossing pitch to contact type. And I'm NOT blasting that type of pitcher. They can be good to outstanding. But they have to have that SOMETHING to make it. Does Barnes? IDK.  But he was drafted in 2017, one year before Winder. He has 2yrs of milb time and a brief stint in 2020 with the St Paul reserve team. He may get his shot but I'm just not really encouraged by his future outcome. 

Long way of saying the Twins aren't being slow in promoting good young arms, but 2020 and injuries have curtailed plans. And while I fully believe Winder and a HEALTHY (hopefully) Duran will be up the second half, nobody should fall asleep on Ober at this point. Don't dismiss the potential due to protecting him. They are doing so with a plan in place.

[Aerodeliria]

It would be so shameful in Japan if Maeken were to be caught using a substance to gain spin, It would be a scandal here of immense proportion. If anyone thinks that they have absolutely zero knowledge about Japanese society. It really is unthinkable. Any talk of this should be put in the dumpster and burned to a cinder.

IMHO Maeken was not fully recovered from the injury. I think he has been struggling with health issues this whole season because I don't believe he is a +5.00 ERA pitcher. I'm not saying he is a Cy Young candidate, but an inability to throw strikes is not really a characteristic I associate with him.

[bighat]

Might want to fix that first paragraph, still says "6-0" because you assumed Robles would throw a perfect 9th. Tsk, tsk, tsk! Robles doesn't look like he'll fetch much at all at this point, if anything. He's as bad as Colome if you ask me, has just been a bit luckier so far. Rogers should be the closer, that move should have been set in stone months ago. He's had success in the past, why change?  Donaldson....I think we all need an update to see if he's still trade-bait. I'm guessing he's out until the All-Star break at least?

Interesting that nobody has speculated about the Twins trading Maeda. Is that because, like most Twins, he's having a historically bad year and thus we wouldn't get much for a player of his value? Or because he's got such a great contract and it would be foolish for us to give that up? Both?

[bighat]

7 hours ago, darwin22 said:

As for Ober, in his 4 starts (not counting the 2 vs. Chicago)--he has looked respectable despite only pitching a total of 17.33 IP in those outings. 

I have a full, thick head of hair (not counting my bald spot) and I'm married to a supermodel (if you don't count her missing teeth and wooden leg).

Ober's looked okay. I don't mind seeing more - same with Jax. There's nothing to lose. But those bad starts count. And those bad innings from Jax, they also count.

If guys like Duran, Widner, and Balazovic pitch like Ober and Jax, would you feel hopeful? I think fans are giving Ober and Jax a longer leash because we never really expected them to contribute anything to this team. So far, if I'm being honest, I haven't seen anything that makes me think they'll be difference makers in 2022. But I do want to see more. Here's hoping some seasoning and experience helps, looking forward to watching them! Maybe something will click.

[Whitey333]

Great comments all!!  Nice to see twins win.  Let us not forget though they only won one game for the week.  I love Jim Kaat  But because of Bally Sports being dumped from most cable/streaming I don't get to watch it much.  Thank goodness for great radio announcers Cory Provis and Dan Gladden!!