What To Do With Max Kepler

[TopGunn#22]

I too was a big fan of Max since he came up.  His inability to use the whole field (especially against LHP) is killing him.  I hate to say this, because the Pohlad's should operate us like the St. Louis Cardinals and not the Tampa Bay Rays, but Max is just too "pricey" to be a 4th OF'er.  

Trading him seems to be the best solution.  According to Baseball Trade Values, Kepler still has a value of about 34.0.  That kind of value could bring some serious talent back in a trade.  Maybe Max will have his value "revised and downgraded."  But at 34.0 he's got LOTS of value where you could move him for young pitching or a team with a lot of young SS talent. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I hope you are wrong.

Most of your post is a mischaracterization of my position or off-topic, so I will just quote your opening sentence, and I will reiterate that I think the Twins can compete in 2022.

If you hope I am wrong, so be it.

[Twodogs]

I don't think any teams will give up much right now for Kepler, I mean they will want him, but they won't give up much more than some AAAA fliers.  Same with Sano.  Just because of the way they are producing right now.  So in reality, I think Kepler and guys like Sano are worth more to the Twins than they are to other teams out there.  They will be worth a lot more if they keep them and they have a potential turn around season and play like they are capable.  Then they'd be trade worthy, but then no one here would want to trade them.  Everyone wants to trade them because they aren't living up to their potential right now.  That kind of makes it a bad time to trade them.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Most of your post is a mischaracterization of my position or off-topic, so I will just quote your opening sentence, and I will reiterate that I think the Twins can compete in 2022.

If you hope I am wrong, so be it.

You can't possibly believe I was saying I hope you are wrong to mean I hope they don't contend which is why you did not not quote me.  It was very clear from the content I meant I hope you are wrong that they would trade away any future talent to bet on a 2021 team.  I also shared that if this were true we would have failed with a great many prospects which would greatly reduce or chances of competing anytime soon. Getting two starters the caliber of Berrios/Maeda would require wiping out the farm system.  Let me be clear, I think that would be wildly incompetent on the part of the FO.  I was also clear I addressed the folly in a mid market team relying on free agency in general.  In this case, signing a front of the rotation SP would preclude extending Berrios/Buxton.  The post 22 salaries would not be sustainable even if they were great and revenue rebounded.  It would be an absolute financial disaster if things did not work out.  

Let's try a real simple swing at our disagreement.  Would the Rays trade away top prospects if they had the twins roster to bet on 2022?  I don't expect you to acknowledge the point so let me answer...  Not in a million years.  Would the pass on the opportunity to get a nice return for Berrios/Rodgers/Buxton if they felt they could not extend them.  History is quite clear in terms of what they would do.

The difference in our positions is that your focus appears to be 2022 only.  You are looking at the problem under the lens of how we do this in 2022.  I am looking at the situation and saying what is the best path back.  I do not believe trading away our future to bet on 2022 is a reasonable plan.  As a matter of fact, I think it's a sure way of mitigating future success.  As I said, you are welcome to your opinion.  I have a very different opinion.  We will have to wait and see what the guys who make these decisions believes to be the best approach.

 

[Mike Sixel]

It is amazing that BOTH Kepler and Sano are not hitting well.......

What to do this year? Keep sending them out and hope they find their groove again. There isn't much other option, imo.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

43 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We will have to wait and see what the guys who make these decisions believes to be the best approach.

 

This time let me just quote your last sentence.

In the last few years the Twins have been doing basically what you, in hindsight, have been advocating, and here they sit, at the bottom of the standings. The Twins hitting evaluation seems good; however, the Twins have been losing MLB-caliber pitching in all ways imaginable: free agency, trade, Rule 5, and not acquiring the talent to make up for it.  

Thad Levine mentioned that the Twins will be giving the scouting point-of-view a bigger role in the decision-making process. That's a good sign to me. It turns out that Falvey and Levine weren't the pitching equivalent of Theo Epstein and Billy Beane after all. No shame in that. 

Will I acknowledge your argument about what the Rays would do? I mean, it's irrelevant. Two different teams, cities, owners, histories. The Twins front office is not the Rays front office. If they were, we probably wouldn't be in this situation!

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

This time let me just quote your last sentence.

In the last few years the Twins have been doing basically what you, in hindsight, have been advocating, and here they sit, at the bottom of the standings. The Twins hitting evaluation seems good; however, the Twins have been losing MLB-caliber pitching in all ways imaginable: free agency, trade, Rule 5, and not acquiring the talent to make up for it.  

Thad Levine mentioned that the Twins will be giving the scouting point-of-view a bigger role in the decision-making process. That's a good sign to me. It turns out that Falvey and Levine weren't the pitching equivalent of Theo Epstein and Billy Beane after all. No shame in that. 

Will I acknowledge your argument about what the Rays would do? I mean, it's irrelevant. Two different teams, cities, owners, histories. The Twins front office is not the Rays front office. If they were, we probably wouldn't be in this situation!

Sorry, I don't follow the logic.  The Rays make great decisions.  However, the Twins front-office is not as skilled.  Therefore, the Twins FO should not make the smart decisions the Rays would?  Again, we simply disagree.  The cities, history, ownership, none of that negates that some strategies are better than others or that our team should do the same smart things the Rays do.  If we did, we could also use the incremental revenue we generate to do things the Rays could not do in FA or in terms of retaining players.

Have they made great personnel decisions.  IDK!  In terms of free agents, they have done quite well with the obvious exceptions of Happ.  I don't really count Shoemaker because he was a cheap flier that made sense.  In terms of trades.  Maeda and Odorizzi were quite good.  In terms of drafting, again IDK.  With all of the injuries it will take until the end of 2022 to make an informed assessment of their drafting and development.  Let me once again stress as I have with Mike, if they can execute the strategies most likely to produce a contender, fire the people that are failing and replace them with capable people.  This is a pretty straight forward necessity in any organization. The merit of the strategy should dictate the plan. To follow a plan with less merit is an illustration of incompetence. 

Obviously, this opinion is a result of my experiences.  Everyone has had different experiences and many will disagree.  We also all weight short and long-term goals differently.  Many sports fans put much more weight on the immediate term than I do.  I am not willing to risk years of futility for the immediate term and many sports fans would without hesitation.  That's going to cause disagreement.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It is amazing that BOTH Kepler and Sano are not hitting well.......

What to do this year? Keep sending them out and hope they find their groove again. There isn't much other option, imo.

It is perplexing.  Kepler's inability or refusal to take away the shift by bunting hard down 3rd base drives me crazy.  I am half serious when I say I would keep him out of the lineup until he learns to bunt.  Not a controlled bunt that takes real skill but just guide the ball within 15 feet of the line.  

Sano is hard to understand.  Why does he continue to flail away at low breaking pitches.  Is he incapable of recognizing that pitch?  If he just can't hit, he is toast unless he learns to hit it.  So, find guys to feed him that type of pitch until he can handle it or find a 2 strike approach or SOMETHING.  We all the definition of doing the same thing over and over and expecting the same result.

I am not a major league coach so maybe I just my ignorance but I don't understand them allowing these guys to continue with the same approach.  What do you think, Mike?  Is it too much to expect Kepler to do something to take away the shift that takes so many hits away from Kepler?  

[DocBauer]

I think the point we need to clarify is Kepler as a "4th" OF. Nobody is stating he should be a true "4th OF" who only fills in. We, at least me, is really saying he'd be a 3/4 time starting OF who is also a solid CF to fill in for Buxton, thus allowing him to have the versatility of being a sort of 4th OF.

In that context, his contract is absolutely not too much. What the Twins need is a RH OF bat that they can trust to be quality offensively and at least decent defensively. Now who is that guy? Could it be Rooker, Garlik or Refsnyder? I don't know. Maybe it's a small trade acquisition or a FA. And TWINFAN nails it when he states Kepler starting/playing in about 120 games provides good defense and could hit something like .260ish with 20+ HR and 75ish RBI. 

Picture a 2022 OF of Kirilloff splitting time at 1B, Larnach, Buxton, and Kepler with a 5th guy who is RH and can actually perform. (Yes, Arraez can figure in to LF as well). I'm really, really good with that despite that 5th guy being a mystery right now. Hypothetically, the new and improved Refsnyder would be perfect. Someone who could hit, have some pop/power and play solid/good defense. In this hypothetical, he could also be another CF option. Again, understand I'm using Refsnyder as a hypothetical example only. For him to be in the mix AT ALL he would need to get healthy soon and play out the rest of the season....with obvious regression involved....and begin to prove his new and improved self is real. But I'm just using him as an example for a multi-purpose RH hitting OF who could provide depth and flexibility and versatility. 

I would prefer this option, I think it's the smartest option. 

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

It is perplexing.  Kepler's inability or refusal to take away the shift by bunting hard down 3rd base drives me crazy.  I am half serious when I say I would keep him out of the lineup until he learns to bunt.  Not a controlled bunt that takes real skill but just guide the ball within 15 feet of the line.  

Sano is hard to understand.  Why does he continue to flail away at low breaking pitches.  Is he incapable of recognizing that pitch?  If he just can't hit, he is toast unless he learns to hit it.  So, find guys to feed him that type of pitch until he can handle it or find a 2 strike approach or SOMETHING.  We all the definition of doing the same thing over and over and expecting the same result.

I am not a major league coach so maybe I just my ignorance but I don't understand them allowing these guys to continue with the same approach.  What do you think, Mike?  Is it too much to expect Kepler to do something to take away the shift that takes so many hits away from Kepler?  

Just tossing this out there, but not so very long ago there was a lot of talk concerning all the changes in approach in regard to coaching in the milb system. The NEW approach is to treat each hitter as an individual and not just coach/preach a single unified approach. I believe it was Plouffe who spoke candidly about being held back by the approach of the system until he just broke free on his own and suddenly found success. 

Kepler and Sano were developed initially by the previous FO and previous system. Have they just not been developed to full ability because of this? Is it too late to change/develop their approach? Did Rowson make that big of a difference in 2019? Maybe he did, And I'm not asking for anyone to lose their job. And I'm not saying the current hitting coaches are poor/incompetent in any way. But maybe they are just the wrong guys for this team?

I'm not saying Kepler or Sano will suddenly transform again  to what we saw in 2019 with a coaching change. Maybe Rowson benefited from a fluke season? Or, maybe, did he really make a difference? If the latter is true, then a change of some sort may need to take place.

When you have success as a team and get raided for coaches, it sucks but it's also a compliment to your organization. Can the FO find another Rowson difference maker? (Still assuming he was a real catalyst).

I'm spitballing here but think there might be something here. 

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just tossing this out there, but not so very long ago there was a lot of talk concerning all the changes in approach in regard to coaching in the milb system. The NEW approach is to treat each hitter as an individual and not just coach/preach a single unified approach. I believe it was Plouffe who spoke candidly about being held back by the approach of the system until he just broke free on his own and suddenly found success. 

Kepler and Sano were developed initially by the previous FO and previous system. Have they just not been developed to full ability because of this? Is it too late to change/develop their approach? Did Rowson make that big of a difference in 2019? Maybe he did, And I'm not asking for anyone to lose their job. And I'm not saying the current hitting coaches are poor/incompetent in any way. But maybe they are just the wrong guys for this team?

I'm not saying Kepler or Sano will suddenly transform again  to what we saw in 2019 with a coaching change. Maybe Rowson benefited from a fluke season? Or, maybe, did he really make a difference? If the latter is true, then a change of some sort may need to take place.

When you have success as a team and get raided for coaches, it sucks but it's also a compliment to your organization. Can the FO find another Rowson difference maker? (Still assuming he was a real catalyst).

I'm spitballing here but think there might be something here. 

It's a crazy game.  Even really good hitters just go through periods where they just stink it up.  It's common.  In Sano's case it's kind of been his norm since Milb.  He does not seem to adapt very well to how he is being pitched.  Of course, that's easier said than done.  Come to think of it Kepler had some hot streaks in Milb but he too went through extended periods where he was mediocre.  IDK but the results (at least on the surface) suggest a coaching change might help.

[Mike Sixel]

In looking at Kepler's numbers.....he's an above average player this year.....so I guess I don't understand the angst. Especially for the cost. He'll probably end up with 2.3-2.5 fWAR, hit about 10-15% better than league average, and run fairly well. If they played him in CF (instead of Celestino) he'd be about average in CF ....bumping his WAR up even more. I think worrying about Kepler is much ado about nothing.

[Dodecahedron]

43 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

In looking at Kepler's numbers.....he's an above average player this year.....so I guess I don't understand the angst. Especially for the cost. He'll probably end up with 2.3-2.5 fWAR, hit about 10-15% better than league average, and run fairly well. If they played him in CF (instead of Celestino) he'd be about average in CF ....bumping his WAR up even more. I think worrying about Kepler is much ado about nothing.

The angst is due to his feast-or-famine season.  He is signed to a reliable-player's contract and he should be that reliable player.  

I agree, today his stats look like what we should be expecting from him.  Before today, not so much.  The baseline stats hide the fact that his numbers were very down for a long time.  He closed June below the Mendoza line with .688 OPS.  That's 3 months of overall crud.  Smacking 3 home runs brought him back to his baseline.  Have previous years been like this too?

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

In looking at Kepler's numbers.....he's an above average player this year.....so I guess I don't understand the angst. Especially for the cost. He'll probably end up with 2.3-2.5 fWAR, hit about 10-15% better than league average, and run fairly well. If they played him in CF (instead of Celestino) he'd be about average in CF ....bumping his WAR up even more. I think worrying about Kepler is much ado about nothing.

I think last night gave him a nicely improved "numbers argument".

I took a look at his numbers in Baseball Reference and he is slashing .209/.304/.441/.745 OPS with a 0.6 WAR after the two homer night (3 homers in 2 games?). The league average for the AL is .244/.316/.410 and a .725 OPS. The WAR seems low although I’m not a Sabrmetrics guy.

I think the two homers are maybe a sign he’s ready to make the uphill climb. To anybody that puts much credence in the Sabrmetrics stats, this may not make sense but I think that  a .745 OPS or OPS+ is not the same when the OBP part of it is reached more by walks than hits, which is the case for Kepler. With a .209 BA, he has to elevate 107 points to get to the league average OPS. Quite simply, on the whole, a hit is much more valuable than a walk.

I also agree with Dodecahedron that Kepler gave the Twins 3 months of far substandard production for a RF (thus chipping in his fair share with the complex web of reasons why the Twins record is so bad).

I just read that with OPS+ it adjusts for the park but not for the position. Especially prior to this recent outburst, I find it hard to believe that he would have been over 100 compared to all AL right fielders with his .199 BA and .680ish SLG.

Let’s hope he can keep it up!

[RpR]

On 7/4/2021 at 3:29 AM, Greglw3 said:

Agree, it is sad. Max seems like a good guy. Does he have as much talent as Larnach or Kirilloff? I thought so but it appears not. He needs some good coaching and a willingness to change his approach. It may be time to cut ties.

How good are Larnach or Kiriloff really, based on what?

Larnach is slow afoot and has a weak arm, stopping runs is as important as scoring runs.

[Dodecahedron]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

How good are Larnach or Kiriloff really, based on what?

Larnach is slow afoot and has a weak arm, stopping runs is as important as scoring runs.

I don't have a strong opinion on Larnach, but Kiriloff will be a nice fixture at first base.  It will be a travesty if Kiriloff ends up in the outfield.  I would say, ignore everyone on the forums who keeps trying to paint Kiriloff as an outfielder  He will be at first base once the opportunity arises.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

In looking at Kepler's numbers.....he's an above average player this year.....so I guess I don't understand the angst. Especially for the cost. He'll probably end up with 2.3-2.5 fWAR, hit about 10-15% better than league average, and run fairly well. If they played him in CF (instead of Celestino) he'd be about average in CF ....bumping his WAR up even more. I think worrying about Kepler is much ado about nothing.

For me it's that I thought he was going to break-out.  Of course, he did in 2019 and I really thought he had arrived.  Definitely not part of the problem although the 2019 Max would be a bigger part of the solution.

[wsnydes]

I'd keep Kepler, for now.  I'd like to see how he does the rest of the season before making any real judgements.  Will he be more like 2019 or 2020?  Obviously right now he's the 2020 version.  If that's the case, maybe try to trade him and see if anyone bites.  

I hate that this team always seems to sell low (if at all), but at this point, I'm not sure timing matters.