Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Month - June 2021

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Josh Winder pitched like a future MLB starter en route to being named the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Month for June.

Honorable Mentions:

LHP Brent Headrick, Low-A: 1-1, 1.71 ERA, 21 IP, 30 K, 10 BB, 1.24 WHIP

RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long, Low-A, 3-0, 2.91 ERA, 21 2/3 IP, 31 K, 5 BB, 1.25 WHIP

Number 5:  RHP Chris Vallimont, Double-A

Stats: 2-2, 3.22 ERA, 22 1/3 IP, 34 K, 10 BB, 1.39 WHIP

On the surface, Vallimont's numbers from May are arguably better than the ones he posted in June. However, the big difference was his uptick in innings. Vallimont faced exactly twice as many batters in June as he did in May - 96 versus 48 - and essentially maintained his strikeout rate. While he wasn't fantastic, he was good, which was enough to come in fifth in the vote.

Number 4: RHP Ben Gross, High-A

Stats: 2-0, 1.54 ERA, 23 1/3 IP, 29 K, 10 BB, 1.37 WHIP

Gross will be 25-years-old before the end of the season meaning the odds that he ever reaches the majors are dwindling with each passing day. That said, his performance during the month of June was rather encouraging. Compared to May, Gross pitched six more innings, struck out seven more batters, allowed four fewer runs, and dropped his overall ERA from 4.15 to 2.66.

Number 3: RHP Austin Schulfer, Double-A

Stats: 1-1, 1.75 ERA, 25 2/3 IP, 28 K, 8 BB, 1.29 WHIP

Like Gross, Schulfer saw his performance improve dramatically as the calendar turned from May to June.

A 19th-round pick in the 2018 draft, Schulfer dropped his ERA from 5.31 to 3.33 after allowing seven less earned runs and striking out twice as many batters in 5 1/3 more innings. Again, his future may not be in the majors as he is already 25-years-old and owns a FIP north of 3.50 in his minor league career, however, it's always intriguing anytime a player posts a month as successful as Schulfer. 

Number 2: RHP Louie Varland, Low-A

Stats: 1-0, 0.40 ERA, 22 1/3 IP, 29 K, 5 BB, 0.90 WHIP

For as mediocre as Varland's May was, his June was absolutely superb. 

Piling up strikeouts has never been an issue for the former Concordia-St. Paul Golden Bear, but what changed for the 23-year-old in June was his ability to combine his punch outs with preventing the long ball. Varland struck out 29 batters in June compared to his 28 in May while seeing his home runs allowed (0 versus 2) and walks issued (5 versus 10) drop precipitously subsequent to a 59% increase in innings pitched (22 1/3 versus 14). 

Varland owns the raw stuff to be a contributor in some capacity at the major league level. The key with him, as is the case with many minor league pitchers, is improving his command to the point he did in June. If he can keep the walks low and and long ball few and far between, he could  find himself pitching at Target Field someday.

Number 1: RHP Josh Winder, Double-A (recently promoted to Triple-A)

Stats: 2-0, 2.37 ERA, 30 1/3 IP, 35 K, 4 BB, 0.96 WHIP

In a Twins' farm system that is replete with talent, perhaps no pitching prospect is more under-appreciated than Josh Winder.

Winder, who did not even crack Twins Daily's Top 20 prospect list prior to the start of the season, finished in second place during last month's Starting Pitcher of the Month race after posting some ridiculous numbers and he continued his streak of dominance as spring turned to summer en route to winning this past month's honors. 

Unlike contemporaries Matt Canterino and Jhoan Duran, Winder possesses fluid mechanics with a consistent, repeatable motion. He get's good push off from his back leg which reduces the strain placed on his shoulder and elbow. He's only been placed on the injured list once in his minor league career, a stint that lasted exactly one week.

Winder's owns a classic pitch arsenal consisting of a four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, and change-up. His fastball sits in the low- to mid-90s, though it can touch as high as 96 mph, and is graded as a 50-55 on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale according to FanGraphs. 

While he doesn't have one pitch that stands out as more impressive than the others, all four are at least average offerings, which has the benefit of raising his floor as a prospect. It this fact, along with his string of consistent positive performances, that drove Winder to be named to the 2021 Futures Game alongside a host of top-tier MLB prospects.

Winder may never find himself among the Twins' top-10 prospects, however, arguably no pitcher in the system has risen their stock more than he has compared to prior to the season beginning. 

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[darwin22]

Lucas:  Nice piece of work with your analysis of these pitchers.  With the injuries to Duran and Canterio combined with the early season injury to Jordan Balazovic, I'd like to think that Winder will/could be the 1st promotion to the Twins starting rotation before season's end.  When is Winder scheduled to make his first start with the Saints?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

3 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Lucas:  Nice piece of work with your analysis of these pitchers.  With the injuries to Duran and Canterio combined with the early season injury to Jordan Balazovic, I'd like to think that Winder will/could be the 1st promotion to the Twins starting rotation before season's end.  When is Winder scheduled to make his first start with the Saints?

Thanks Darwin! I would assume either Saturday or Sunday. Both are currently listed as TBD by milb.com and Winder's last start with Wichita was on June 23. Tuesday at the absolute latest.

[dbminn]

Thanks, Lucas. I have one quibble - I think Winder is a top-10 Twins prospect right now. He doesn't seem to have any holes in his repertoire. He has multiple pitches with command/control. Like you said, a high floor... with upside.

[roger]

Thanks for the report, Lucas.  I do have a couple points, however, one that really bugs me.  With both Gross and Shulfer you indicate that MLB may not be in their future because they already are or soon will turn 25 years old.  Are you saying that if a player doesn't reach MLB by the time they are 25 their dream is over?  Sure seems to me that is what you are saying.  And basing so much on any age limit, especially after a year in which no one played an inning of minor league ball is foolish, at least in my opinion.

I have watched several of the games Winder pitched this month and in the Midland game the Midland announcer raved about him being the #1 pitcher in AA ball.  I assume he was speaking of only the Central Division of AA ball, yet, that sure as heck should mean he is hands down one of the Twins Top 10 prospects.  I personally believe, together with the injury to Duran he has made himself into the Twins #1 pitching prospect with Balazovic nipping at his heals, somewhat due to his late start to this season.

You referred to his fastball as being in the low to mid-90's, touching 96.  In the games I saw, he was consistently 94-96, touching 97 a few times.  The Midland announcer spent a lot of time talking about the work this former VMI student put in during last year's lost season, arriving at the fall instructional league with a fastball much faster than he threw in 2019  It seems that the data you referred to wasn't the most current insofar as his fastball is concerned. 

As for June's top pitchers, I am eagerly awaiting Winder's first few starts at St. Paul hoping he will continue to dominate at the AAA level so we have a chance to see him pitch on the biggest stage come September.  I also understand that may be wishful thinking because of the limited innings he has and the likelihood that he could be shut down by Labor Day.  I also try to watch Wichita's games when Schulfer is pitching, as he is from Wisconsin.  I expect like many of us, we are pleasantly surprised with how dominant he has been and want to see it continue for the rest of this year and beyond.  After all it seems the Twins have a current need for some big time pitchers.

[Seth Stohs]

20 minutes ago, roger said:

Thanks for the report, Lucas.  I do have a couple points, however, one that really bugs me.  With both Gross and Schulfer you indicate that MLB may not be in their future because they already are or soon will turn 25 years old.  Are you saying that if a player doesn't reach MLB by the time they are 25 their dream is over?  Sure seems to me that is what you are saying.  And basing so much on any age limit, especially after a year in which no one played an inning of minor league ball is foolish, at least in my opinion.

Agreed...  especially now after a missed season. Will they be Hall of Famers? Probably not, but there is no reason to think they can't be big leaguers (even though the odds for any minor leaguer is never real high). 

[nicksaviking]

Thanks for the encouragement. This team really needs to find a better way to start getting these guys to the majors though. The club has had two starting pitching prospects in the last decade, Berrios and Gibson, who have done anything resembling a contribution to the club. That's far from acceptable. This 'slow-and-steady' approach they use with most starters has not worked.

The club is going nowhere, once healthy toss the top guys into the fire and see which ones have the stuff and the nerve to stick. The club is going nowhere, these guys do NOT need to be polished, ready-to-roll pitchers. I count at least 24 players drafted in 2018 already in the majors, including Larnach and Jeffers. Regardless of who's in charge, this team always handles pitchers more delicately; too delicately from my view. It's not working so I don't see any reason not to switch things up. 

[Alex Schieferdecker]

Varland will need to start getting promoted soon if he is going to have a shot at making the majors in his career. But his results in Low A have been lights out, if memory serves, he's had just a single poor outing. Hopefully he will be bumped up shortly now that his walks have decreased. He may ultimately end up as a hard-throwing bullpen option as well.

[TwinsDr2021]

It is encouraging that each of his three minor league 3 years his average innings per start has gone up, it is bit discouraging that it is still below 5.5. To me if he can't average 6 innings in triple A, his near future should be a relief pitcher. You can't expect that 80% of starts to not make it out of the 5th or 6th and expect your bullpen to be more than mediocre at best.  (I don't mean a 1 or 2 inning relief pitcher, more along the lines of somebody starting the 1st two innings, and then letting him go 3-7.)

[darwin22]

On 7/1/2021 at 9:28 PM, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

Thanks Darwin! I would assume either Saturday or Sunday. Both are currently listed as TBD by milb.com and Winder's last start with Wichita was on June 23. Tuesday at the absolute latest.

Lucas:  Well...I think you'd agree that Mr. Winder's performance tonight.....5.2 IP...1 hit....2 BB and 8Ks...only 1 ER allowed (RP that followed allowed run) in win over Omaha---should grab the attention of Falvey and company at Target Field.  At this point--------losers of 4 straight (I don't have faith in a comeback tonight) with ANOTHER miserable start by Happ-----Winder should be in starting rotation after the ASB.  

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

31 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Lucas:  Well...I think you'd agree that Mr. Winder's performance tonight.....5.2 IP...1 hit....2 BB and 8Ks...only 1 ER allowed (RP that followed allowed run) in win over Omaha---should grab the attention of Falvey and company at Target Field.  At this point--------losers of 4 straight (I don't have faith in a comeback tonight) with ANOTHER miserable start by Happ-----Winder should be in starting rotation after the ASB.  

He was looked incredible in his debut against a really good Triple-A offense. Fastball sat in the mid-90s and his changeup was devastating. A very encouraging and exciting first glimpse!

[darwin22]

7 minutes ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

He was looked incredible in his debut against a really good Triple-A offense. Fastball sat in the mid-90s and his changeup was devastating. A very encouraging and exciting first glimpse!

Great to hear that!  Thanks for the details.  I was hopeful the "moment" wouldn't be too big for him.  He sure answered that doubt with a brilliant start.  Good things are coming for Winder.