2021 MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects: 41-50

[Andrew Thares]

The MLB Draft is coming up quick, so be sure to check out each installment of the Twins Daily Draft Prospect rankings, so you are prepared heading into draft night.

We are now just two weeks away from the start of the 2021 MLB Draft. A year after the MLB Draft was shortened from 40 rounds down to just five, as a result of the Covid-19 Pandemic, the 2021 installment is back up to a healthier 20 round draft, as organizations are still feeling the effects of the pandemic.

A 20-round draft is not the only thing new with this year’s draft, as for the first time it will take place over All-Star Weekend, in the host city of Denver, beginning Sunday July 11th and finishing on Tuesday July 13th.

The Minnesota Twins hold three picks on Day 1 of the draft, with those picks coming at 26, 36 and 61 overall. Which means that numerous players featured in the Twins Daily MLB Draft Top 50 Prospects list should be available for them when they make all three of their selections on Day 1. For the first installment of this year’s list, we will look at the players that I have ranked 41st-50th.

50. Ethan Wilson, South Alabama

Pos: OF | B/T: L/L | Height: 6' 1" | Weight: 210 lbs | Age: 21

Previously Drafted: Never

Scouting Grades

Hit: 55 Power: 55 Run: 50 Throw: 40 Field: 50 Overall: 50

University of South Alabama outfielder Ethan Wilson has been a name many MLB scouts have had on their radar ever since his eye-popping Freshman campaign back in 2019 where he slashed .345/.453/.686 and hit 17 home runs in 56 games. After a slightly disappointing performance in just 18 game in 2020, Wilson had another decent performance this spring as he hit .318 with an OPS of .947, all be it against much weaker competition than many other college hitters on this list, as Wilson’s South Alabama squad plays in the Sun Belt Conference.

While the level of competition is a bit of a question mark for Ethan Wilson’s bat, his swing mechanics suggest that he should remain an above-average hitter when he enters pro ball. The cause for concern is what Wilson brings defensively. While Wilson isn’t exactly slow, he doesn’t have the speed needed to be a good outfielder at the MLB level. Additionally, his relatively poor arm strength will pigeonhole him to left field as a professional. With these defensive limitations, it will force teams to take a big gamble on Wilson’s bat panning out for the pick to be a success.

49. Andrew Abbott, Virginia

Pos: LHP | Height: 6’0” | Weight: 180 lbs | Age: 22

Previously Drafted: 36th Round, 2017 (NYY)

Scouting Grades

Fastball: 55 Curveball: 55 Changeup: 50 Control: 50 Overall: 50

If you have been following along this college baseball season, or at least any of the NCAA Tournament or College World Series, you might already be familiar with the Virginia Cavalier ace Andrew Abbott. Abbott helped lead the Cavaliers to the College World Series, where he made one gem of an appearance throwing six shutout innings, while striking out ten, against the third ranked Tennessee Volunteers. Unfortunately, that is all we got to see from Abbott in the College World Series, because after beating Tennessee in the game he started, Virginia lost each of their next two games and were eliminated before he could make his next appearance.

 After having success pitching out of the Cavalier bullpen his first three college seasons, Abbott got a chance to put his potential on full display in his senior season this spring as a starting pitcher, and he took full advantage of the opportunity. In 19 appearances (17 starts), Abbott posted a stellar 2.87 ERA across 106 and 2/3 innings pitched. Abbott was a strikeout machine this year, as he finished third in the nation with 162 strikeouts and was the only pitcher close to matching the Vanderbilt dynamic duo Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter (both of whom will be featured later in this series) in strikeouts.

In terms of stuff, Abbott doesn’t have as much high-end stuff has other elite pitchers, but both his fastball and curveball have the potential to play up from their 55 ratings that I gave them. If that happens, Abbott has the potential to one day be a number 2 or 3 starter in an MLB rotation. If not, he is one of the safer options in this year’s class to at least be a back of the rotation starting pitcher one day.

48. Alex Mooney, St. Mary’s Prep, Orchard Lake, MI

Pos: SS | B/T: R/R | Height: 6' 1" | Weight: 180 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Duke

Scouting Grades

Hit: 50 Power: 45 Run: 55 Throw: 55 Field: 55 Overall: 50

Coming out of the Michigan prep ranks, Alex Mooney is a player who’s ranking could vary across different MLB organizations. The biggest question is how teams fell about his potential offensively. Personally, I see him as a fringe-average hitter with below average power at the professional level. If Mooney can put on some more strength, and prove himself as a quality contact hitter, he has a shot to be a productive bottom of the order bat, but I don’t see his offensive ceiling being much higher than that.

Defensively is where Alex Mooney excels. While he doesn’t have any loud tools, he is solidly and above-average defender at short and shouldn’t have much difficulty sticking there at the next level. If Mooney wants to one day make it as a big leaguer, he will need to continue to perform well defensively at short and provide a well-balanced game.

47. Chase Burns, Beech Senior HS, Gallatin, TN

Pos: RHP | Height: 6’4” | Weight: 215 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Tennessee

Scouting Grades

Fastball: 65 Curveball: 50 Slider: 55 Changeup: 50 Control: 45 Overall: 50 

Chase Burns has relied heavily on what is one of the more dominating two-pitch mixes in the high school ranks in this year’s draft. Burns’ fastball is up there with the best in the class, as he leverages his 6’4” frame well to consistently get the pitch into the upper 90s, and occasionally reaching triple digits. He then pairs that with a slider that has the potential to a second plus pitch as he learns to control it a little better.

Fueled by those two pitches, Burns has high potential down the road, but that also comes with a lot of risk. Not only do high school right-handed pitchers of his profile have a poor track record, which will likely knock him down most teams’ boards, but he will also need to show that he can not only develop a third pitch, but also develop some better control to make it as a starting pitcher. If not, he should be a quality candidate to find success pitching out of the bullpen.

46. Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS, CA

Pos: SS | B/T: R/R | Height: 6' 1" | Weight: 180 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Arkansas

Scouting Grades

Hit: 50 Power: 50 Run: 50 Throw: 55 Field: 55 Overall: 50

California prep shortstop Max Muncy (no relation) is one of the most solid across the board high schoolers in this year’s class. He has shown the potential to be at least an average hitter, with enough pop to be a 15-20 home runs a year guy. The glove is where Muncy brings the most value, as he has more than enough range and arm strength to make it at short. 

While Muncy doesn’t have a standout set of tools that will vault him up draft boards, he does possess a very well-rounded game, and is a solid athletic profile that will give him an opportunity to stay at short, or become a utility infielder, which is a position that is gaining more and more value as teams better understand how to utilize their full rosters. Expect him to come off the board sometime in the second round.   

45. Carson Williams, Torrey Pines HS, CA

Pos: SS/3B | B/T: R/R | Height: 6' 2" | Weight: 180 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Cal

Scouting Grades

Hit: 45 Power: 60 Run: 50 Throw: 60 Field: 50 Overall: 50

While Carson Williams is already the third high school shortstop featured on this list, he should not be mistaken with the two previous ones, as he has a much different toolset to off. Without question the most promising part of Williams’ game is his power potential, that is already plus and could get even better as he fills out more. However, he does come with some risk as there is plenty of swing and miss in his game as well.

It is hard to imagine Williams sticking at short but expect him to make the transition to third where he has more than a strong enough arm strength to stick at the hot corner. If Williams can clean up his stroke a bit to cut down on the swing and miss, Williams has a very high ceiling, but that comes with a very big if.

44. Connor Norby, East Carolina

Pos: 2B | B/T: R/R | Height: 5’10" | Weight: 187 lbs | Age: 21

Previously Drafted: Never

Scouting Grades

Hit: 60 Power: 50 Run: 50 Throw: 55 Field: 50 Overall: 50

After struggling a bit during his freshman season back in 2019, Connor Norby was showing signs that things had clicked in 2020, as he hit .403 and tacked on 6 stolen bases in 17 games before the season got cut short. He proved that breakout was for real this season as he finished the season 8th in the country with a .415 batting average and added 15 home runs, to show some power that was previously lacking in his game.

Defensively, Norby has more than enough ability to be a solid defender at second base. He has enough arm strength to play short, but he does not quite possess the range needed to play the position regularly. I would expect Norby to find an everyday home at second, but he could certainly provide help at short or third if it were needed.

43. Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS, AZ

Pos: 3B | B/T: L/R | Height: 6' 3" | Weight: 200 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Arizona State

Scouting Grades

Hit: 55 Power: 55 Run: 50 Throw: 55 Field: 50 Overall: 50

Wes Kath is another player that will have split grades across several different organizations scouting departments. Some might see his potential offensively with a smooth swing and power to boot, while others might question his ability to hit higher level pitching and produce power with a wood bat. Personally, I think there is absolutely potential for Kath to be a plus hitter with 20 plus homer power to boot.

The other question with Kath is out in the field. Some will see Kath as a plug and play third basemen, while others would like to see what he can do at short before having him make the transition to third, especially if they use an early round pick on him. I would not be surprised if there was a handful of teams that like both his potential with the bat and think he will have the ability to stick at short. If that is the case, he could go off the board earlier than expected.

42. Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, KS

Pos: RHP | Height: 6’3” | Weight: 175 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: LSU

Scouting Grades

Fastball: 55 Slider: 60 Changeup: 45 Control: 50 Overall: 50

Ben Kudrna is a great example of what scouts refer to as a projectable frame. At 6’3” and only 175 pounds, Kudrna has a lot of room to develop physically, which typically correlates with an increase in velocity. Right now, Kudrna possesses above-average velocity on his fastball that typically sits in the low-to-mid 90s, but if he can add a few more ticks that pitch will become an effective swing and miss pitch.

Right now, Kudrna’s best put away pitch is his slider that at times can be devastating to opposing right-handed hitters. Kudrna is still developing a changeup that he can use as an out pitch when facing lefties, and at times he can get a little loose with his command. However, these are two things that can be developed if he gets into the right system. Expect a team to take a shot on Kudrna in the second or third round, to try and get him out of his commitment to LSU, similar to what the Twins did with Blayne Enlow a few years back.

41. James Wood, IMG Academy, FL

Pos: OF | B/T: L/R | Height: 6' 7" | Weight: 240 lbs | Age: 18

Commitment: Mississippi State

Scouting Grades

Hit: 40 Power: 65 Run: 50 Throw: 55 Field: 50 Overall: 50

 

Rounding out the first installment of this series is yet another high school bat, this time it is and outfielder in James Wood. Without question the one thing that creates excitement in James Wood is the pop he possesses from the left side of the plate. At 6’7”, Wood is able to generate leverage that not many other hitters can replicate, which in turn generates a lot of bat speed. Wood also has a very long swing, which does, and will continue to create problems for him against higher levels of pitching. The swing is going to be a project for whichever team drafts him, but if they can get that squared away there is not telling how high the ceiling is for Wood with the bat.

James Wood is not the prettiest of looking players in the field, as his length can be awkward for him at times, but that doesn’t mean that wood is not an effective fielder. Wood will likely find a home in right field as a professional, as his lack of top end speed will limit him to a corner, but he has more than enough arm strength to play right.

 

View full article

[TNTwinsFan]

Lived in Gallatin, TN for 16 years…would love to see Burns picked by the Twins and let Coach Johnson work his magic! Either way, it’ll be interesting to follow him throughout his career. 

[Dman]

I know this years draft is short on elite hitters but wondering if this is the year the FO goes with arms early.  Given that so many of our best pitchers are out injured and being that our young hitters are already arriving or have arrived at MLB seems like young pitching is the only thing holding this latest rebuild up.  Investing in some quality college arms could provide some backup for the in house options they have and with any luck those arms should only take two years to reach impact status.  Twins need arms for the rotation and pen so lot's of arms needed.

While the Twins are not out of it yet they appear to be deadline sellers and it is generally easier to trade for hitting at the deadline than pitching.  So they could could focus on pitching in the draft and hitting at the deadline.  Will have to wait and see as they like those slow corner outfielders early in the draft and Ethan Wilson has to look tempting.

I like both pitchers mentioned in the article but if the Twins are going to go with a hitter Conner Norby has good traits to be successful.  Hitting 400 takes a very good eye and that generally translates very well.  The guys the Twins picked in 2019 that have done the best both have good eyes at the plate (i.e. Steer and Julien).  Their walk to K ratio is almost equal and they both can hit for power.  Norby looks similar to me. Unless teams don't see the power translating seems like a long shot he will last until pick 44.  I guess 2nd base generally isn't a priority for most teams but he looks like he has the bat to make it.

Thanks for getting some names out there and getting us fired up for the draft. I am very curious as to what the FO will do this year.

[MN_ExPat]

Nice write up Andrew, TY.

There is a ton of talent coming out of Georgia this year, both college and HS.  Don't know if the Twins will be able to snag any of it, but some of these kids are truly legit talents on both sides of the ball.  You may very well see two kids from the same HS (Buford) get drafted if teams feel that they can pull them away from their college commits.

[roger]

Thanks for the report, Andrew.  Is interesting as the draft is kind of sneaking up on us.

There is no way that I want to talk about any specific player as there is no way to know which of these guys will be available and what the Twins are going to do.  What I hope, however, is that they DON'T pick a college power hitter who strikes out a ton and doesn't have a defensive position.  I also hope they don't pick more than one high school kid in those first three selections.  If they want to get back into the thick of the hunt in a couple years, drafting kids who MAY make it as we approach the next decade ain't gonna help.  

Will second DMan's thoughts above and hope like heck that the first pick and at least two of the first three are college pitchers.  Maybe if they throw their line into the pond twice, they will catch one nice one.

[prouster]

Thanks for the list. This should be an interesting series of articles. 
 

I’m wondering where the FV numbers come from. It seems like it would be extremely unusual for there to be fifty or more players with a 50 FV at the time of the draft.

[Andrew Thares]

1 hour ago, prouster said:

Thanks for the list. This should be an interesting series of articles. 
 

I’m wondering where the FV numbers come from. It seems like it would be extremely unusual for there to be fifty or more players with a 50 FV at the time of the draft.

The scouting numbers are the numbers that I create personally for each prospect based on the research that I do across a number of different platforms, along with watching as much video as I can find on a prospect and what I am able to watch live. 

As for the specific numbers, you will see that it varies pretty wildly across different sites. Some sites like Fangraphs, whom I assume you are comparing too, will only have a handful of players with a 50 grade, while others like Baseball America are at the complete opposite end of the spectrum as they have almost 50 players with a 55 grade or higher. My grades fall in between those two (closer to BA than Fangraphs) as I usually have roughly 20 or so guys with a 55 or higher, and the next 50 or so players having a grade of 50. It all just depends on the class.

[prouster]

7 minutes ago, Andrew Thares said:

The scouting numbers are the numbers that I create personally for each prospect based on the research that I do across a number of different platforms, along with watching as much video as I can find on a prospect and what I am able to watch live. 

As for the specific numbers, you will see that it varies pretty wildly across different sites. Some sites like Fangraphs, whom I assume you are comparing too, will only have a handful of players with a 50 grade, while others like Baseball America are at the complete opposite end of the spectrum as they have almost 50 players with a 55 grade or higher. My grades fall in between those two (closer to BA than Fangraphs) as I usually have roughly 20 or so guys with a 55 or higher, and the next 50 or so players having a grade of 50. It all just depends on the class.

Cool. Thanks for answering. I indeed had Fangraphs in mind. They seem to be stingier than some other outlets. In any case, thanks again for putting in all the work that must have gone into this. 

[TwinsFan98]

Wilson would be a great selection with our Competitive Balance Round A pick if he's there still. Abbot would be a great 2nd round pick. But we need to take a pitcher with our first pick.

[DocBauer]

Honestly, not sure commentening now vs waiting until this series makes sense. And I have to agree with Roger that the draft has snuck up on us and it's always so hard to project the ML draft. Harder than any other sport. 

I still feel the baseball draft is more the BPA than any sport. That being saidm i think tbe FO has been somewhat unfairly criticized for their draft approach since being placed in charge. It's easy to say we are overloaded with corner power bats. But would you want to not have Kirilloff and Larnach right now? How about Wallner in a couple years to replace Kepler?

They HAVE drafted infielders. A few in 2018 and a bunch in 2019. Steer, Howard, Julien, Cavaco, and Mack. I'm sure I've missed one or two.

While it's true they haven't drafted a ton of pitchers early they have drafted a number of pitchers, especially college pitchers. Canterino and Sands are the highest profile draftees to be sure, and they each look pretty solid early in their careers. And just not going  list player after player, but there are some interesting arms with solid results so far drafted in 2018-19. Most of whom have questions, obviously, from only having a season to a season and a half at most professionally thus far.

My surprise has been the short 2020 draft when supposedly there was real depth for pitching available and we chose ONE. Now Raya, 4th round HS selection, might be my favorite choice they made. No offense to the other choices or their potential, but did they get "too cute" with their selections? Did they think they were sneaking in some good position players while everyone was looking too hard at pitching and get a few steals? Maybe. Jeffers wasn't supposed to be picked where he was and look how that's turned out so far.

But unless quality pitching just isn't there when the Twins select, I really hope they add a couple upside arms early in this draft. There IS real depth of talent in the system right now. Unfortunately, a missed season and a rash of injury is setting back their combined development by a season or more right now. And you should never ignore available talent. But I'm really hoping for a couple good college arms with projection who could add the the system and create even better depth than we have currently. You need numbers to find your future rotation, but you also need guys who could transition to the pen as well.

[Seth Stohs]

Not sure if people saw this or not... I participated in the Prospects Live MLB Mock Draft on Friday. I made picks 26, 36 and 61 for the Twins. Check out who I took... and why.