Week in Review: Something to Celebrate

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins ticked off their second consecutive winning week, powered by some strong offensive performances and dramatic moments. They've won seven out of nine, shaving 4 ½ games off their division deficit in the process.

Even as they're left reeling from yet another Byron Buxton health setback, the Twins find themselves on a rare run they can feel good about.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/21 through Sun, 6/27
***
Record Last Week: 3-2 (Overall: 32-43)
Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: -48)
Standing: T-3rd Place in AL Central (11.5 GB)

Last Week's Game Recaps:
Game 72 | MIN 7, CIN 5: Sanó Walks Off Reds in Extras
Game 73 | CIN 10, MIN 7: Late Comeback Falls Short as Bullpen Lapses
Game 74 | CLE 4, MIN 1: Bats Can't Back Up Berríos' Brilliance
Game 75 | MIN 8, CLE 7: Offense Powers Twins Through Bullpen Game
Game 76 | MIN 8, CLE 2: Happ Bounces Back with Bomba Support

NEWS & NOTES

As deflating as this Twins season has been for fans, following the frustrating and logic-defying plight of Byron Buxton may be even more heartbreaking than the team's overall struggles. It really is just one thing after another for the snakebitten superstar.

This time, a broken left hand, suffered via an HBP on Monday night in just his third game back from the IL. While evidently playing through some pain in a hip that was not back to 100%, Buxton was nonetheless effective, going 4-for-11 with a homer and double in his brief reappearance. Now, after missing a month and a half due to the hip strain, he's staring down a similar length of absence as this boxer's fracture heals. 

It sucks. It absolutely sucks. For him, for the team, for the fans, for baseball. 

Buxton's new injury led to a quick recall for Gilberto Celestino, who joins Max Kepler and Nick Gordon as the team's center field depth of the moment.

The rest of the week's roster action was centralized on the pitching staff, with more bad news hitting the bullpen. Luke Farrell, one of the unit's few standouts, went on the Injured List with a right oblique strain. Cody Stashak has been placed on the 60-day IL due to a disc injury in his back. Randy Dobnak was also shelved with a finger strain.

The Stashak move opened up a 40-man spot for Danny Coulombe, who was selected from the minors and started a bullpen game on Friday. Griffin Jax, also called up to fill a spot on the beleaguered staff, followed as the bulk guy for that game, and picked up his first big-league win. 

HIGHLIGHTS

Miguel Sanó heated up again and reminded us what a game-changing force he can be when it's clicking. 

Of course, it hasn't clicked often for him this year, which is why he found himself on the bench Monday night (an increasingly routine occurrence for him against right-handed starters). 

While he didn't start the game, he did finish it.

Sanó followed with another huge hit the following day, coming inches short of tying things up against Cincinnati with another two-run homer, but instead settling for a double off the top of the wall that set up Alex Kirilloff's game-tying knock. Sanó started only twice last week, but had more multi-hit games (2) than he had in the previous month. He's also gone 13 consecutive plate appearances without striking out – a rather amazing feat for him. 

Sanó helped lead the charge in a generally strong week for the offense, which produced 31 runs in five games and is on its way to finishing up an impressive month of June. The team has a .783 OPS this month, after finishing May at .744 and April at .723.

Also contributing to the recent run-scoring outburst at Target Field was Luis Arraez, who went 6-for-18 and was instrumental to Friday night's win, chipping in three extra-base hits and three RBIs. The glimmer of power was a very refreshing sight from Arraez, whose slugging percentage had dropped to .327 earlier this month before he gave it a boost with two doubles and three triples in his past eight games. 

Kirilloff keeps on raking; he went 5-for-16 with a double, homer, and five RBIs. Nelson Cruz also stayed hot, contributing six hits including two home runs and a double. Josh Donaldson returned from a brief pause due to a calf scare, chipping in five hits (including a monster blast) and three RBIs during the Cleveland series. This is a pretty dang good offense.

The pitching inspires less confidence, but that's not true across the board. José Berríos was outstanding once again his last time out, holding Cleveland to one run over 6 ⅓ innings, although the offense couldn't back him up and snapped a string of seven straight wins with him on the mound. Rocking a 7-2 record and 3.41 ERA, Berríos may well be working his way toward another All-Star nod. 

He and Taylor Rogers have clearly been the class of this pitching staff, which I suppose is not the most surprising development, all other things aside. It's noteworthy from a bigger-picture perspective because both are under team control for one more year in 2022. As the Twins weigh the merits of a retool-vs-rebuild path forward, Berríos and Rogers will loom as pivotal figures at the deadline. 

Both long-tenured pitchers are sure to be in demand. Do the Twins feel they could afford to let either one go, if they aspire to bounce back and contend next season?

LOWLIGHTS

Outside of Berríos, Rogers, and a couple of others, there is just not much positivity to be drawn from this current group of arms. 

Hansel Robles, who's generally been one of the more dependable bullpen fixtures, had an extremely tough week, coughing up four runs in two innings of work and getting tagged with a loss in Tuesday's game. Jorge Alcalá, whom the Twins badly need to emerge as a key piece for the late innings, gave up four earned runs in his two appearances, and sports a 5.40 ERA in his past 20 trips to the mound. Alex Colomé mixed in another meltdown, yielding three runs (one earned) on two hits and a walk in Tuesday's loss. He has a 6.23 ERA in June. Cyclical spare parts like Coulombe and Jax have not shown much. 

Michael Pineda is hurt, and hasn't pitched into the sixth inning since May. Randy Dobnak was a disastrous mess before going on the shelf himself. Kenta Maeda has looked better since returning from IL, but remains a far cry from the dominant force we witnessed last year. 

The Twins have the worst pitching WAR of any team in the American League. They've given up the second-most home runs in the majors. Their relievers are on track for historical ineptitude when it comes to letting inherited runners score. This is a brutal pitching corps with no simple fixes in sight.

TRENDING STORYLINE

If they're going to make a last-gasp effort to regain relevance, the Twins need to do something about the pitching unit. To rattle off wins like they need to up until the All-Star break requires consistently good work from the rotation and bullpen. Frankly: a dramatic turnaround.

But what can they do? They aren't going to shake things up with a splashy "buyer" trade, sitting in a last-place tie. There really isn't much available in terms of help on the farm, with top prospect Jhoan Duran sidelined indefinitely alongside MLB-ready arms like Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. The best starting pitcher in St. Paul, 25-year-old Charlie Barnes, is a replacement-level guy through and through. (But maybe an improvement over the likes of J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker?)

Would the front office consider dipping down to Double-A for an upside arm like Jordan Balazovic or Josh Winder? It would be a bold and perhaps desperate measure, but ... desperate times.

LOOKING AHEAD

If the Twins want to jam their foot into the fast-closing door and keep it open a crack, here is their chance. After taking two of three from second-place Cleveland, they now head to Chicago for a four-game showdown against the division leaders. The White Sox are in a rut, having lost six of eight with an injury-plagued offense that's been stalling out. The Royals are straight-up crumbling, with 17 losses in their last 21 games.

Winning these next two series could help the Twins gain a foothold of sorts, with nearly a month still remaining until the trade deadline. It'll be interesting to see where things stand on the 4th, one week from today.

MONDAY, 6/28: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Lucas Giolito
TUESDAY, 6/29: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP José Berríos v. RHP Dylan Cease
WEDNESDAY, 6/30: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Carlos Rodon
THURSDAY, 7/1: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – TBD Undecided v. RHP Lance Lynn
FRIDAY, 7/2: TWINS @ ROYALS – LHP J.A. Happ v. RHP Brady Singer
SATURDAY, 7/3: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. LHP Danny Duffy
SUNDAY, 7/4: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP José Berríos v. RHP Brad Keller

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[bighat]

It's been a decent couple of weeks. Fun to watch the team win more than they lose for a change. Alas, I fear that Baily Ober and "Undecided" are not going to match up well against Rodon and Lynn.

For those who think they see a light at the end of the tunnel.....think again. That light belongs to a big fat locomotive coming straight for us. This is shaping up to be a very rough week and I think reality is going to hit like a ton of bricks.

PS: More Sox news.....word on the street is that the Sox are going to add Eduardo Escobar to their team in a trade with the D-Backs. Seems like a great move, Eddie's career will come full circle. Good for him.

[theBOMisthebomb]

6 hours ago, bighat said:

It's been a decent couple of weeks. Fun to watch the team win more than they lose for a change. Alas, I fear that Baily Ober and "Undecided" are not going to match up well against Rodon and Lynn.

For those who think they see a light at the end of the tunnel.....think again. That light belongs to a big fat locomotive coming straight for us. This is shaping up to be a very rough week and I think reality is going to hit like a ton of bricks.

PS: More Sox news.....word on the street is that the Sox are going to add Eduardo Escobar to their team in a trade with the D-Backs. Seems like a great move, Eddie's career will come full circle. Good for him.

Let's play these next 14 games before the break on the field and see what happens. There is a glimmer of hope that might not be that locomotive you predict. What's the best case scenario for the 2021 Twins? They get hot, sneak into the final wild card spot, make a deep playoff run, win the World Series and top the 2019 Senators comeback season. I know the odds against this happening on Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Fangraphs has the Twins at 0.2 percent probability to win the World Series, so let's be that 1 season out of 500.

[bighat]

2 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

Let's play these next 14 games before the break on the field and see what happens. There is a glimmer of hope that might not be that locomotive you predict. What's the best case scenario for the 2021 Twins? They get hot, sneak into the final wild card spot, make a deep playoff run, win the World Series and top the 2019 Senators comeback season. I know the odds against this happening on Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Fangraphs has the Twins at 0.2 percent probability to win the World Series, so let's be that 1 season out of 500.

We'd all like that to happen. But hey, either way we can always use more positivity here! Have a great week, go Twins!

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

What's the best case scenario for the 2021 Twins? They get hot, sneak into the final wild card spot,

I endorse your optimism, although note that winning the division is more likely than the wild card. We are a similar number of games back in both races right now but we have fewer/weaker teams to pass in the division — and a ton of head-to-head games left with those teams too.

Here are the current projected win totals from Fangraphs:

Division: CHW 90, CLE 84

Wild Card: TBR 90, OAK 89, NYY 88, TOR 88

Fangraphs gives us a 2.4% at the division right now, vs only 0.7% for a wild card.

[roger]

28 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I endorse your optimism, although note that winning the division is more likely than the wild card. We are a similar number of games back in both races right now but we have fewer/weaker teams to pass in the division — and a ton of head-to-head games left with those teams too.

Here are the current projected win totals from Fangraphs:

Division: CHW 90, CLE 84

Wild Card: TBR 90, OAK 89, NYY 88, TOR 88

Fangraphs gives us a 2.4% at the division right now, vs only 0.7% for a wild card.

I think that is optimistic for Cleveland.  Way too many injuries to their starting pitching.  In either case, the Twins need to get to around 88-90 wins to have a chance.  That's an awfully big hill for them to climb.

And thanks, Nick, for the report.  Yes, it is a lot better reading after a winning week.

[jmlease1]

The lineup is producing a lot like we expected it to at the start of the season. Kirilloff and Larnach have proven more than capable of replacing Rosario's production, and there's plenty of punch up and down the lineup. Health remains a problem (No Buxton, no Garver as key losses as part of a plethora of injuries) but the offense is fine.

The pitching is a wreck and it's compounded by all of the depth/youth being ravaged by injuries too. I really didn't see the bullpen implosion coming; I knew we would miss Trevor May but thought we had refilled with a bunch of nice options. Alcala is too homer-happy, Colome has totally collapsed, Stashak was garbage (and injured)...if anything I was a little concerned we might not have enough lefty power in the bullpen, but Rogers and Thielbar have been great, and two of the only reliable guys.

I thought there was a real chance Happ or Shoemaker might not stick in the rotation, but thought we were in good shape with Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer as backup options and Duran on the come in AAA. Let's see...injured, injured, injured, and injured. Oof.

What a year.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

Does anyone know if there is any timeline for Garver? Haven't heard anything since Mitch announced himself he had surgery.

[Otto von Ballpark]

28 minutes ago, TouchEmAllGuy said:

Does anyone know if there is any timeline for Garver? Haven't heard anything since Mitch announced himself he had surgery.

From an article posted Friday June 25th:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mitch-garver-working-his-way-back-to-action

Quote

Garver and his new cup are now quickly on the track to recovery after the Twins got him back on his feet at the start of this six-game homestand against Cleveland and Cincinnati, with the catcher saying that his hope is to catch bullpen sessions and possibly appear in a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul by next weekend.

He played catch at 120 feet before Friday's game against Cleveland and said the plan is for him to start running by Sunday and hitting by Monday or Tuesday. He would ramp up his running, catching and hitting activities throughout the week ahead of the possible final step into games.

 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Hiw about a timeline for Refsnyder? I’d much rather see him in CF than Celestino. Nice kid, good glove, bat just isn't MLB ready. A Refsnyder/Kepler CF would be a step up.

[insagt1]

Gordon first, then Refsnyder when he's ready. Celestino should be in AAA. He's one prospect that isn't ready to get playing time right now.

My optimism will continue thru this coming week. If they finish below .500, it would appear that nothing much has changed. However if they do well, and start a decent run, the games will be fun. Statistically very few teams this far behind by July 1 ever make post season, but its not impossible...if your team is decent, but just not clicking yet. Twins are NOT the O's or the D'backs.

However I do worry, a lot, about our pitching. And thats not rocket science is it!

[Otto von Ballpark]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Hiw about a timeline for Refsnyder? I’d much rather see him in CF than Celestino. Nice kid, good glove, bat just isn't MLB ready. A Refsnyder/Kepler CF would be a step up.

The last report on Refsynder was 6 days ago: 

Twins' Rob Refsnyder: Close to running

Hopefully he found better motivation to start running than I usually do.

[Dman]

15 hours ago, bighat said:

It's been a decent couple of weeks. Fun to watch the team win more than they lose for a change. Alas, I fear that Baily Ober and "Undecided" are not going to match up well against Rodon and Lynn.

For those who think they see a light at the end of the tunnel.....think again. That light belongs to a big fat locomotive coming straight for us. This is shaping up to be a very rough week and I think reality is going to hit like a ton of bricks.

PS: More Sox news.....word on the street is that the Sox are going to add Eduardo Escobar to their team in a trade with the D-Backs. Seems like a great move, Eddie's career will come full circle. Good for him.

I think you are right.  They are going to have to face their Kryptonite which is good pitching.  I predict a lot of K's and ground balls in their future.  If they can get to the Sox while they are down there would be hope but with so many pitchers down and or not doing well even then it seems like a long shot to make the playoffs and then to do anything in the post season looks even worse.  If this season continues to follow the current theme I predict the White Sox give us the crushing blow to make us sellers at the deadline.

[bighat]

35 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think you are right.  They are going to have to face their Kryptonite which is good pitching.  I predict a lot of K's and ground balls in their future.  If they can get to the Sox while they are down there would be hope but with so many pitchers down and or not doing well even then it seems like a long shot to make the playoffs and then to do anything in the post season looks even worse.  If this season continues to follow the current theme I predict the White Sox give us the crushing blow to make us sellers at the deadline.

Yeah man. It's not fun but I'd say there's about an 80% chance the Twins lose at least 3-of-4 here. Probably a coin flip whether or not they get swept. I'd absolutely be thrilled if they went into Chicago and split the series, but I just can't see that happening. When you look at the pitching matchups and look at Chicago's offense, it just doesn't seem realistic to hope for anything more than limping out of Chicago with 1 victory in this series.

[Thegrin]

I have to keep reminding myself that a pitchers terrible numbers are OK if the pitcher comes thru at the right times. Look at Jack Morris and others. Give him a fat lead and he'd fritter it away, but when he needed a crucial out, he'd find the right pitch. Berrios is that way and sometimes Maeda is too.  This White Sox series is going to show what our staff is truly made of. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

4 hours ago, bighat said:

Yeah man. It's not fun but I'd say there's about an 80% chance the Twins lose at least 3-of-4 here. Probably a coin flip whether or not they get swept. I'd absolutely be thrilled if they went into Chicago and split the series, but I just can't see that happening. When you look at the pitching matchups and look at Chicago's offense, it just doesn't seem realistic to hope for anything more than limping out of Chicago with 1 victory in this series.

Chicago's offense? Their team OPS+ is worse than the Twins. They've scored 27 runs the last 9 games. They've got injuries just like the Twins, but worse depth and Mercedes is turning back into a pumpkin.

Their starting pitching has been much better, I'll grant that, but I don't think they're invincible (probably performing a bit over their head so far) -- and in the modern game, you still need to score more than 3 runs a game and have a deeper pen, or the SP advantage can easily vanish. They've given up 53 runs the past 9 games.

Not that the Twins will dominate, but nothing particularly unlikely about a split. (At least not before game 1 was rained out )

[jmlease1]

16 hours ago, Thegrin said:

I have to keep reminding myself that a pitchers terrible numbers are OK if the pitcher comes thru at the right times. Look at Jack Morris and others. Give him a fat lead and he'd fritter it away, but when he needed a crucial out, he'd find the right pitch. Berrios is that way and sometimes Maeda is too.  This White Sox series is going to show what our staff is truly made of. 

The fake Legend of Jack Morris continues. There's literally no evidence to support this other than a few anecdotes and Jack claiming it was true. Morris was a fine pitcher who was tremendously durable (this season proves the old saw that the best ability is availability and Jack always had that) but the idea that this kind of pitcher really existed is just not supported.

[Dodecahedron]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

The fake Legend of Jack Morris continues. There's literally no evidence to support this other than a few anecdotes and Jack claiming it was true. Morris was a fine pitcher who was tremendously durable (this season proves the old saw that the best ability is availability and Jack always had that) but the idea that this kind of pitcher really existed is just not supported.

The numbers bear out the idea that Morris was better in the following situations:

- RISP
- Men on base
- Men on 3rd, Men on 2nd and 3rd, Men on 3rd with no outs, etc. (This is when he put up his best numbers).
- When his team was behind

Now, what's not true is that "If Morris was ahead, he would let other teams catch up."  That's the myth.  He was near league average in most other situations. 

It is 100% true that Morris kicked it up about 5 gears once someone got on 3rd base.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

35 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

The numbers bear out the idea that Morris was better in the following situations:

- RISP
- Men on base
- Men on 3rd, Men on 2nd and 3rd, Men on 3rd with no outs, etc. (This is when he put up his best numbers).
- When his team was behind

Ah, Jack Morris. The debate that will never die!

B-Ref has "tOPS+" which indicates if a player does better or worse in a given situation, as compared to their overall performance. (For pitchers, under 100 would be better than normal, above 100 would be worse than normal.)

Morris's career tOPS+ vs 1985 AL pitcher tOPS+ (seemed like a good midpoint year)

RISP: 106 vs 108
Nobody on: 97 vs 95
Men on base: 104 vs 106
Runner on 3rd: 113 vs 114
Runners on 2nd and 3rd: 120 vs 133
Runners on 3rd with no outs: 130 vs 129
When behind: 106 vs 105

Also note that the more specific you get with the split, the smaller the sample. The real standout splits for Morris are bases loaded with 0 outs or with 2 outs, although they are among the smallest.