It’s Time to Pay Byron Buxton

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’ve never been in this position myself, but I would assume lots of different factors come into play when you’re offered 9 figure contracts. Does Buxton or Berrios have significant others from Minnesota? If not, let’s get on it! That convinced Parise to sign with the Wild ?

Let’s learn from past lessons pursuing Bumgarner and buy them both a ranch and racing horses. 

Berrios and Buxton are already married to non-Minnesotans, with children.

[jorgenswest]

The only quote that I can find directly from Byron is the one above where he acknowledges being upset about not getting called up and also says he wants to end his career as a Twin.

What else has he said that leads us to believe he has a strong desire to leave?

Is it possible it is noise that his agent or even the Twins inject as part of the negotiation process? Is it in the interest of the Twins to feed someone like Reusse off hand remarks like he might not be happy? Would it help when he leaves to have a narrative of he didn’t want to be here? 

It may be a good baseball decision from a mid to small market team to let him move on rather than pay up. Game changing center fielders (and number 2 pitchers) are going to get big pay days. 

Buxton may well leave but the only narrative should be that the Twins chose not to pay up for an elite frequently injured centerfielder.
 

 

[chpettit19]

On 6/25/2021 at 8:42 PM, howeda7 said:

Because even if he comes back in August and stay healthy for a full season, he's not getting and 8 or 10 year contract. Stop it. 5/100 is likely fair or slightly above what he would get in FA. Especially if it's bumped to $125 with incentives. 

You're suggesting if he comes back in August of 2021 and completes the rest of this season, then stays healthy all of 2022 and continues playing at this level (in the argument for best player in baseball) he still maxes out at 5/100 or 5/125? Maybe you're correct. But that's certainly not the approach any agent worth anything would be telling him. And it's likely not what he's thinking.

Even if that's how things shake out and that's the best he can get, what incentive does he have to sign that now? I find it almost impossible to believe him and his agent believe that's the top of his market. 8 to 10 years probably isn't realistic based on his injury history, but I could certainly see LA, Boston, NY throwing a Bauer type deal at him. 3 years of insane AAV if he has a healthy season. Bauer had 1.5 incredibly productive years after being a slightly above average pitcher and got 45m this year. Why wouldn't Buxton want to try to get the same thing?

To lock himself into 100m over 5 years at this point would be him signaling he doesn't think he's ever going to stay healthy. If he's given up like that I don't want him on this team anyways. He doesn't seem like he has and I don't think he'll go into negotiations with that mindset. Being 1 year away from free agency means the player should only sign a deal that gives away their chance to test their market if they get a deal they think is at the top of their market. There is no incentive for him to limit himself to 5/100, whether you think it's fair or not. He's not looking for fair. And shouldn't be. He's looking to maximize his worth and have the chance to pick where he plays. As he should.

[Dodecahedron]

The Hicks contract is unusual by baseball standards.  One could argue it's hard to compare Buxton to that, but on the other hand Buxton is an unusual player.

The truth is, a team who has $$$ and is "one player away from dominance" signs Buxton without hesitation.  The Twins are not in this position.

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

You're suggesting if he comes back in August of 2021 and completes the rest of this season, then stays healthy all of 2022 and continues playing at this level (in the argument for best player in baseball) he still maxes out at 5/100 or 5/125? Maybe you're correct. But that's certainly not the approach any agent worth anything would be telling him. And it's likely not what he's thinking.

Even if that's how things shake out and that's the best he can get, what incentive does he have to sign that now? I find it almost impossible to believe him and his agent believe that's the top of his market. 8 to 10 years probably isn't realistic based on his injury history, but I could certainly see LA, Boston, NY throwing a Bauer type deal at him. 3 years of insane AAV if he has a healthy season. Bauer had 1.5 incredibly productive years after being a slightly above average pitcher and got 45m this year. Why wouldn't Buxton want to try to get the same thing?

To lock himself into 100m over 5 years at this point would be him signaling he doesn't think he's ever going to stay healthy. If he's given up like that I don't want him on this team anyways. He doesn't seem like he has and I don't think he'll go into negotiations with that mindset. Being 1 year away from free agency means the player should only sign a deal that gives away their chance to test their market if they get a deal they think is at the top of their market. There is no incentive for him to limit himself to 5/100, whether you think it's fair or not. He's not looking for fair. And shouldn't be. He's looking to maximize his worth and have the chance to pick where he plays. As he should.

8 months of health, even if it happens isn't going to erase his injury history from anyone's memory. And realistically, he's not going to sustain the offensive #'s he has to this point over a full season. No one could. Plus, his biggest asset is still his speed. That has already peaked and will inevitably decline going forward. His emerging power #'s offset that somewhat, but not completely.

So no, I don't think any team, not even the Yankees or Dodgers, will offer him more than 5 years max. His incentive to sign now is that he could very well get hurt again next year and miss significant time again. If that happens, even a 5 year deal probably won't be in the offering.

5/$100 with another $5 million/year in incentives for plate appearances is very fair. Perhaps a 6th year option for say $26 million with a $5 million buyout if a little more is needed. If he stays healthy, it ends up a 6-year $156 million contract if he hits all the incentives. If he doesn't stay healthy, it's still 5/$105 in guaranteed money. That's hardly a huge discount.

[howeda7]

On 6/26/2021 at 5:44 AM, Major League Ready said:

There won't be any free agents after 2023?  You are failing to see the option of collecting the trade value now and spending the money on a different free agent.

How often do we sign big external FA's? They often don't want to come here. Donaldson was a notable exception. It's easier/wiser to spend $ locking up your own top players than trying to lure them here. I'd rather over-pay Berrios than over-pay whoever the 2023 FA version of Dallas Kuchel is.

[chpettit19]

28 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

8 months of health, even if it happens isn't going to erase his injury history from anyone's memory. And realistically, he's not going to sustain the offensive #'s he has to this point over a full season. No one could. Plus, his biggest asset is still his speed. That has already peaked and will inevitably decline going forward. His emerging power #'s offset that somewhat, but not completely.

So no, I don't think any team, not even the Yankees or Dodgers, will offer him more than 5 years max. His incentive to sign now is that he could very well get hurt again next year and miss significant time again. If that happens, even a 5 year deal probably won't be in the offering.

5/$100 with another $5 million/year in incentives for plate appearances is very fair. Perhaps a 6th year option for say $26 million with a $5 million buyout if a little more is needed. If he stays healthy, it ends up a 6-year $156 million contract if he hits all the incentives. If he doesn't stay healthy, it's still 5/$105 in guaranteed money. That's hardly a huge discount.

It's not about it being a fair deal. It's about his incentive to lock himself in for 5 years. Of course he's not going to maintain a .370 average for a whole season, but he's always been one of the most talented players in baseball and he's now playing like it. Why would he be willing to lock himself into a deal for only 100-125 over the next 5 years right now?

His talent says he's worth well over that monetary output. His injury history says he's worth way less. The only incentive he would have to limit his financial gain at this point is to protect himself against further injury and never getting a huge contract. Why would he sign for 5 years? Why not go year to year? You don't think LA or NY or Boston would sign him for 1 year 25m? Or do a Bauer type 3 year deal? If Buxton believes he can stay healthy at all over the next 5 years he has no reason to limit himself by signing a 5 year 100-125 deal. None. That's the point. Should the Twins offer that as a fair deal? Absolutely. If they can get him to sign for that they absolutely should. But why would he sign that? He's a year away from free agency. The Twins can't overpay pre-arb and arb years anymore to lower the cost of his free agent years. There's no incentive for him to give up free agent years when he's 1 year away. No agent should let him sign that deal between now and when he hits free agency.

[howeda7]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's not about it being a fair deal. It's about his incentive to lock himself in for 5 years. Of course he's not going to maintain a .370 average for a whole season, but he's always been one of the most talented players in baseball and he's now playing like it. Why would he be willing to lock himself into a deal for only 100-125 over the next 5 years right now?

His talent says he's worth well over that monetary output. His injury history says he's worth way less. The only incentive he would have to limit his financial gain at this point is to protect himself against further injury and never getting a huge contract. Why would he sign for 5 years? Why not go year to year? You don't think LA or NY or Boston would sign him for 1 year 25m? Or do a Bauer type 3 year deal? If Buxton believes he can stay healthy at all over the next 5 years he has no reason to limit himself by signing a 5 year 100-125 deal. None. That's the point. Should the Twins offer that as a fair deal? Absolutely. If they can get him to sign for that they absolutely should. But why would he sign that? He's a year away from free agency. The Twins can't overpay pre-arb and arb years anymore to lower the cost of his free agent years. There's no incentive for him to give up free agent years when he's 1 year away. No agent should let him sign that deal between now and when he hits free agency.

Because most players choose to sign long-term deals instead of going year-to-year. Bauer is the exception. Currently, Buxton's market value is somewhere in the 5/100 ballpark. Sure, he could play for $10 million in arbitration next year instead of say $16 million on an extension. And then maybe get $25 million on a one year deal for 2023. He'd be no better off in total for the two years. And is he going to continue getting $25-$30 million on 2024, 2025, 2026? Not if he doesn't stay healthy. Not if he loses a step or two and becomes a corner OF'er.

Twins extension:               Year-to-Year:

2022: $16                        2022: $10 arbitration

2023: $18                         2023: $25

---------------Turns 30---------------------

2024: $20                      2024: $25

2025: $22                      2025: $20

2026: $24                    2025: $20

The same total value. He takes on all the risk going year to year. Could he get more? Maybe. Could he get far less? Quite possibly.

Another option is giving him an opt-out after say the 3rd year. If he's stayed healthy and thinks he can do better, he can opt out.

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Because most players choose to sign long-term deals instead of going year-to-year. Bauer is the exception. Currently, Buxton's market value is somewhere in the 5/100 ballpark. Sure, he could play for $10 million in arbitration next year instead of say $16 million on an extension. And then maybe get $25 million on a one year deal for 2023. He'd be no better off in total for the two years. And is he going to continue getting $25-$30 million on 2024, 2025, 2026? Not if he doesn't stay healthy. Not if he loses a step or two and becomes a corner OF'er.

Twins extension:               Year-to-Year:

2022: $16                        2022: $10 arbitration

2023: $18                         2023: $25

---------------Turns 30---------------------

2024: $20                      2024: $25

2025: $22                      2025: $20

2026: $24                    2025: $20

The same total value. He takes on all the risk going year to year. Could he get more? Maybe. Could he get far less? Quite possibly.

Another option is giving him an opt-out after say the 3rd year. If he's stayed healthy and thinks he can do better, he can opt out.

1. He's going to need to lose way more than a step or 2 to have to move to a corner. And if he does then he's Mookie Betts who just signed a 12 year deal. 2. Most players go into free agency in very different circumstances so of course they sign long term deals. But there's also plenty of "make good" or "pillow" deals done every season.

Why would he get 20 per year in 2025 and 2026 instead of 25 in the year-to-year scenario? I'm not saying he goes year to year for the rest of his career. I'm saying he has no incentive to sign any long term deals right now. Unless he thinks he'll be injured every year for the rest of his career. He has been the best player in baseball when healthy the last couple years. Making his skill level worth in the 30-35m range, not 20-25 range. It's "fair" to give him the 20-25 based on his injuries, but he has no incentive to do that on a long term deal this close to free agency.

If he were going to take a deal like 5/100 he would have done it already. His mindset, and that of his representation, isn't "I'm going to always be hurt so I'm only worth 20 a year." His mindset is "I'm the best player on the planet and I'm not going to take far less value than that because I got hit in the arm with a fastball." He has no incentive to lock himself into a long term deal. Sure, could certainly offer him a Stanton type deal with some opt-outs in there. But those numbers would have to be higher than 5/100 as well.

You want him to guarantee himself 100m so he doesn't risk ending up with about 80m. He can lock himself in until he's 33 when you seem to think he won't be elite anymore, and maybe even have to move to a corner and his worth will be drastically less. So he's certainly not getting an unreal payday after 33. Likely not even another 5/100 deal then. So he'd make less than 200m over the rest of his career.

I'm suggesting he takes the 10ish mil arb next year then take as much money as possible over short stints (year to year, Bauer type 3 year high AAV deal, whatever). So he takes 10 next year. Likely gets 25 his first year of free agency whether he plays a whole year next year or not (somebody will take the chance to get him in their building). Assume another injury shortened season that one and he's still getting 20m (he's got 2.7 or 3 WAR in 27 games this year, he's worth a ton even in a few games). Another injury shortened year gets him down to 15m. 10m the next year when he still can't play a whole year. So 80m over the next 5 years by going year to year and never ever staying healthy and seeing his worth decline each year. So he lost out on 20m. Not ideal.

But if he goes year to year, or short term after hitting the open market, and stays healthy for a year. Or 2. Or 3 he signs a massive deal that locks him in for the rest of his career. Likely not until he's 40 like Betts just got, but 37 or 38 probably. At 30m a year (Betts money) for 5-8 years he's looking at 150-240 on top of the money he made in the short term deals. 

Yes, he takes on risk by not signing a deal that's below his talent level market. But that risk doesn't outweigh the chance to see what he can get on the open market. If 5/100 is his market worth why sign that deal now? He'd still get it after next year. Or would next year be the straw that broke the camels back? Teams would then suddenly say "oh he's too injury prone?" This year they'd pay that, but not next year? Makes no sense. He's too close to free agency to give up his chance to see what he can get. If he wins the MVP next year somebody would be willing to pay him a 3/100 Bauer deal I'd bet.

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel

3:30

I'd think Buxton isn't signing any kind of deal until he is healthy next year, at which point the Twins probably won't pay him what he wants.....what do you do with Buxton? I know you said you can't trade him for value.....but you also can't sign him long term (as he'll want to be paid like an elite player)....

 

Ben Clemens

3:31

I think I'd just let him play out the string, if he mashes great, and keep trying to convince him to stay

If he's the MVP (or something near that) next year, you got your value

If not, well, you probably still got as much value as you could have traded him for

It's always nice to perpetual-motion-machine it like the Rays, but it's not always possible

[Major League Ready]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

mike sixel

3:30

I'd think Buxton isn't signing any kind of deal until he is healthy next year, at which point the Twins probably won't pay him what he wants.....what do you do with Buxton? I know you said you can't trade him for value.....but you also can't sign him long term (as he'll want to be paid like an elite player)....

 

Ben Clemens

3:31

I think I'd just let him play out the string, if he mashes great, and keep trying to convince him to stay

If he's the MVP (or something near that) next year, you got your value

If not, well, you probably still got as much value as you could have traded him for

It's always nice to perpetual-motion-machine it like the Rays, but it's not always possible

Thanks for posting this Mike.  My position has been we trade him if someone is willing to trade (pay) as if he will continue to mash this year and they want him for next year.  Obviously, that's the highest value.  Is there a team out there willing to pony up as if they are going to get a year and half of great production?  IDK.  However, I would take advantage if the situation presented itself.

[Mike Sixel]

There were Berrios questions in today's Ben Clemens' Fangraphs chat also.....

[howeda7]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

1. He's going to need to lose way more than a step or 2 to have to move to a corner. And if he does then he's Mookie Betts who just signed a 12 year deal. 2. Most players go into free agency in very different circumstances so of course they sign long term deals. But there's also plenty of "make good" or "pillow" deals done every season.

Why would he get 20 per year in 2025 and 2026 instead of 25 in the year-to-year scenario? I'm not saying he goes year to year for the rest of his career. I'm saying he has no incentive to sign any long term deals right now. Unless he thinks he'll be injured every year for the rest of his career. He has been the best player in baseball when healthy the last couple years. Making his skill level worth in the 30-35m range, not 20-25 range. It's "fair" to give him the 20-25 based on his injuries, but he has no incentive to do that on a long term deal this close to free agency.

If he were going to take a deal like 5/100 he would have done it already. His mindset, and that of his representation, isn't "I'm going to always be hurt so I'm only worth 20 a year." His mindset is "I'm the best player on the planet and I'm not going to take far less value than that because I got hit in the arm with a fastball." He has no incentive to lock himself into a long term deal. Sure, could certainly offer him a Stanton type deal with some opt-outs in there. But those numbers would have to be higher than 5/100 as well.

You want him to guarantee himself 100m so he doesn't risk ending up with about 80m. He can lock himself in until he's 33 when you seem to think he won't be elite anymore, and maybe even have to move to a corner and his worth will be drastically less. So he's certainly not getting an unreal payday after 33. Likely not even another 5/100 deal then. So he'd make less than 200m over the rest of his career.

I'm suggesting he takes the 10ish mil arb next year then take as much money as possible over short stints (year to year, Bauer type 3 year high AAV deal, whatever). So he takes 10 next year. Likely gets 25 his first year of free agency whether he plays a whole year next year or not (somebody will take the chance to get him in their building). Assume another injury shortened season that one and he's still getting 20m (he's got 2.7 or 3 WAR in 27 games this year, he's worth a ton even in a few games). Another injury shortened year gets him down to 15m. 10m the next year when he still can't play a whole year. So 80m over the next 5 years by going year to year and never ever staying healthy and seeing his worth decline each year. So he lost out on 20m. Not ideal.

But if he goes year to year, or short term after hitting the open market, and stays healthy for a year. Or 2. Or 3 he signs a massive deal that locks him in for the rest of his career. Likely not until he's 40 like Betts just got, but 37 or 38 probably. At 30m a year (Betts money) for 5-8 years he's looking at 150-240 on top of the money he made in the short term deals. 

Yes, he takes on risk by not signing a deal that's below his talent level market. But that risk doesn't outweigh the chance to see what he can get on the open market. If 5/100 is his market worth why sign that deal now? He'd still get it after next year. Or would next year be the straw that broke the camels back? Teams would then suddenly say "oh he's too injury prone?" This year they'd pay that, but not next year? Makes no sense. He's too close to free agency to give up his chance to see what he can get. If he wins the MVP next year somebody would be willing to pay him a 3/100 Bauer deal I'd bet.

There are some here saying we should only offer him a 3 -year massively incentive laden deal. You seem to think he can get 10/$300 from the Yankees.

I  think reality is in the middle but closer to the lower end. He's injury prone, his best asset is his speed and he's approaching 30. I don't think anyone's giving him a "best player in the game" level contract or one that goes past his age 34 season in December 2022. If that's what he's holding out for, I guess we let him play out the string and trade him next July if we're not in the play-off race.

But I don't know that a legit 5 year offer has been made by the Twins. It sounds more like 3 year offers with multiple team options is what they've offered so far. If so, they need to step up and put their best offer out there.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

There are some here saying we should only offer him a 3 -year massively incentive laden deal. You seem to think he can get 10/$300 from the Yankees.

I  think reality is in the middle but closer to the lower end. He's injury prone, his best asset is his speed and he's approaching 30. I don't think anyone's giving him a "best player in the game" level contract in December 2022. If that's what he's holding out for, I guess we let him play out the string and trade him next July if we're not in the play-off race.

But I don't know that a legit 5 year offer has been made by the Twins. It sounds more like 3 year offers with multiple team options is what they've offered so far. If so, they need to step up and put their best offer out there.

They wouldn't give him that now, but if he's healthy the next 2 years and putting up Trout numbers they'd pay him a ton. 

His speed separates him from everyone else, but he's so much faster than other superstar hitters I think he can lose quite a few steps and still be great in CF. The question, to me, is how well he can actually perform over a whole season if he's healthy. If the last couple years are showing the real Buxton talent wise then he's Mike Trout 2.0 like he was hyped as coming up. High budget teams that print money will throw stupid money at him. 

I don't have any idea if they've offered him a straight up 5 year deal or not. None of us do. But he's so close to free agency now that any deal he signs has to be pretty close to what he feels he can get on the market. Maybe 5/100 is all he can get, but he has no reason not to test it out and see if he can get 5/125, or 3/100, or 6/150, or whatever else. If he's worth 5/100 right now with his injury history he's still worth 5/100 next year even if he's hurt again. And then he gets to pick where he plays and has a chance at more than the 5/100. Does he risk getting less than that? Yes. But there's also a chance he gets more than that. 

To me there's just no reason for him, or Berrios, to sign any deal that isn't their expectation for what they'll get on the open market. They're too close to free agency now. They've bet on themselves this long, why stop now?