Berríos or Buxton: Who is Worth a $100 Million Deal?

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think the decision on Berrios is actually pretty easy. Lance McCullers got five years, $85 million. Berrios is a significantly better investment both in terms of quality and then likely longevity given his work ethic and past performance. He is clearly worth a five-year/$100, million type contract and might be worth more. The Twins could stagger the payment so that his salary went up significantly after Donelson comes off the books. Quality top of rotation starting pitching is the hardest thing to develop and the hardest thing to find. Even if Berrios is only really a number 2 starter, and I think he might develop into a true number one still, he is worth the money. He is the guy I will try the hardest to sign.

Buxton is the much harder case because of his injury history and the fact that until this year he’s really never shown he could consistently hit major-league pitching at a high level. However, if he really is what we’ve seen this year when he’s played he will command $20-$25 million a year on the market although that will probably come with some strings in the form of a games played incentive. I would love to see the Twins be the team that signed him to that contract but I do recognize that our resources are not unlimited.

I do think there is a way to sign them both without straining the budget if we are willing to make a couple of hard decisions. First, we need to know we can sign them to these contracts. Then, we need to offload some payroll. The candidates are obvious. Trade Cruz for pitching prospect(s), and replace him with a combination of Sano, Garver, Rooker and off day starters. Makes the team weaker in the short run but frankly all we’re ever going to get from Cruz is the short run. Trade Donaldson Without sending much money even if it means getting a lower return. This is a salary dump to sign the other two guys so you have to know you can sign the other two guys before you do this. Replace him with  Arraez as the every day third baseman, with Gordon and Miranda coming up behind.  Then, if you have to to make the numbers work, trade Kepler. The combination of Larnach and Kirilloff can handle the corner outfield spots, with Sano and Garver handling first base, or Kiriloff can be moved to first base with Rooker/Refsnyder/Garlick being the other corner outfielder. By doing this you free roughly $40 million a year off the current payroll which you then give to Berrios and Buxton to sign them long-term. We don’t have a lot of other long-term big money commitments coming up since Larnach and Kiriloff are very early in their careers. Same for Arraez, who also probably won’t ever command huge money.

The big negative is this approach would hamstring us from signing big money free agents for the pitching staff but I frankly don’t think we’re going to do that anyway. I would advocate for giving Rogers three years/$20 million, giving Robles two years/$6-8 million and filling in from there. We have Duffy and Alcala in their less expensive years still, so we’re only looking to fill 3 to 4 other spots. We stunk at it this year but have been successful and others. This team doesn’t have the payroll to be filled with strong, established players in all areas.

[Mike Sixel]

Berrios is 100% worth 5/100, and if he'd sign for that, I'd bet he'd be signed this summer.......I'm thinking he's looking for 6/140+.

Buxton, of course, is much trickier. He's just not been on the field in any season for close to the full season. Not once. On the other side of the coin, he's a great player at this point. Some wealthy team can take the chance he's hurt again....I'm not sure the Twins can. Also, it is much easier to find CFers than SPs......Frankly, I have no idea what I'd do with him at this point. I don't think he even considers 5/100 at this point. He's looking for at least $25MM per year, I'd guess. IF they can get 2 prospects they really believe in for him, I'd consider dealing him (SP, SS, CF types only....no more bat first corner players, please).

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

 I would say Buxton adds more value when he plays, but he will only play 50% of the games, if that.  

Interesting argument...Berrios will only play 20% of the games, at best.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

This.  Any other take is like buying a mansion because you're convinced that next lottery ticket is "the one" 

It's fundamental asset mismanagement of the worst kind: ignoring the obvious on fool's hope.

The idea that you can predict Buxton's future health, or Berrios's for that matter, is iffy at best.

A player like Donaldson, or Thome, with known chronic issues, can certainly be expected to miss time. 

Buxton's only similar issue is his history of concussion, and that hasn't been a problem for some time now. Getting hit in the hand with a pitch is a fluke, not a chronic issue.

Given how often pitchers break down, I don't even think it's a good bet Berrios is healthier than Buxton going forward. 

[Vanimal46]

If Buxton wasn’t injured half the time he wouldn’t be getting offers of $100 million. We would be talking about 10/$300 million contracts. 

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Interesting argument...Berrios will only play 20% of the games, at best.

apples and oranges.....since Berrios has an influence on every opposition AB while in the game......but you knew that. 

[TheLeviathan]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

apples and oranges.....since Berrios has an influence on every opposition AB while in the game......but you knew that. 

These are the kind of arguments necessary when you're trying to make a case that just doesn't make any sense.

Byron Buxton, if he were a free agent in two months, would not get a $100M contract.  No GM, anywhere in the league, is going to sign on for that.  None.  Could he get a 1 year 20M deal?  Sure.  Maybe even 2/40.  Someone might bet on the potential but they'd hedge the years or make it incredibly incentive driven.  In the age of analytics he would be lucky to get half of a 5/100M contract straight up.

Berrios, on the other hand, is not only certain he could get 5/100 but it's likely low for what he'd get on the open market.

This conversation is really that simple.  If you're convincing yourself Buxton is worth 5/100 but not Berrios, you're going to have to engage in some pretzel logic to get there.

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

These are the kind of arguments necessary when you're trying to make a case that just doesn't make any sense.

Byron Buxton, if he were a free agent in two months, would not get a $100M contract.  No GM, anywhere in the league, is going to sign on for that.  None.  Could he get a 1 year 20M deal?  Sure.  Maybe even 2/40.  Someone might bet on the potential but they'd hedge the years or make it incredibly incentive driven.  In the age of analytics he would be lucky to get half of a 5/100M contract straight up.

Berrios, on the other hand, is not only certain he could get 5/100 but it's likely low for what he'd get on the open market.

This conversation is really that simple.  If you're convincing yourself Buxton is worth 5/100 but not Berrios, you're going to have to engage in some pretzel logic to get there.

My guess is Buxton gets more in free agency than Berrios, if they both end up there after the 2022 season. 

12 pack of Grain Belt Premium?

[jorgenswest]

Buxton.

Buxton will have a year where he plays 140 or more games and leads his team to success in the playoffs. I hope it is the Twins.

The Twins really need to pay for both. It might mean trying to unload Donaldson’s contract. It might mean paying up starting in 2022 and needing to let go of Rogers contract as well as not replacing a Cruz.

if only one it has to be Buxton. He is the difference maker.

[Dodecahedron]

31 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

My guess is Buxton gets more in free agency than Berrios, if they both end up there after the 2022 season. 

12 pack of Grain Belt Premium?

It would not surprise me at all if another team takes the Buxton Plunge.  If your org has tons of cash and you just need a handful more wins to be utterly dominant, Buxton is the guy.  Buxton could lead an already good team to 120, 125 wins, maybe more, utterly insane numbers, even if he is in a full body cast for half the year.

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Buxton.

Buxton will have a year where he plays 140 or more games and leads his team to success in the playoffs. I hope it is the Twins.

The Twins really need to pay for both. It might mean trying to unload Donaldson’s contract. It might mean paying up starting in 2022 and needing to let go of Rogers contract as well as not replacing a Cruz.

if only one it has to be Buxton. He is the difference maker.

Concur on all points.

[roger]

I would love seeing the Twins keep both for their entire career.  So count me among those who would like to see them sign both.  Can it be done, certainly.

While having this discussion, unless I missed it no one is talking about the other $90,000,000-$100,000,000 in their budget.  How will that be distributed to the other 24 players?  If the Twins really are close to having their minor league system begin putting players on their roster, ten players at or near the minimum is less than $10M of that $90+M.  Should they only have four or five at the minimum, well, that changes this.

So yes, go out and get it done as long as Buxton cooperates and agrees to some type of incentives tied to games played.  Then milk the system with players like Miranda, Lewis, Rortvedt, Winder, Balazovic, Moran and others getting this team back on track and on their way to the promised land.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

apples and oranges.....since Berrios has an influence on every opposition AB while in the game......but you knew that. 

Found this to be an interesting argument/discussion point so wanted to look up some numbers (baseball reference was my source for this data).

Batters faced per season by Berrios from 2016-today: 281, 616, 797, 842, 271, 338. Total: 3145

Plate appearances per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 331, 511, 94, 295, 135, 110. Total: 1476

Fielding "Chances" (putouts + assists + errors) per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 249, 400, 70, 224, 105, 71. Total: 1119

PA and Chances total for Buxton: 2595

So Berrios has influenced 3145 "events" on the field since his debut and Buxton has influenced 2595. Don't know what you, or anyone else, wants to draw from that, but I found it interesting.

*Obviously a very basic way of looking at this concept that doesn't include Berrios fielding data or Buxton steals, effect on positioning by other fielders because of his range, etc. etc. etc.

[LVTwinsfan]

I’m pretty sure the cost of insuring a Buxton contract will be extremely high

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Found this to be an interesting argument/discussion point so wanted to look up some numbers (baseball reference was my source for this data).

Batters faced per season by Berrios from 2016-today: 281, 616, 797, 842, 271, 338. Total: 3145

Plate appearances per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 331, 511, 94, 295, 135, 110. Total: 1476

Fielding "Chances" (putouts + assists + errors) per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 249, 400, 70, 224, 105, 71. Total: 1119

PA and Chances total for Buxton: 2595

So Berrios has influenced 3145 "events" on the field since his debut and Buxton has influenced 2595. Don't know what you, or anyone else, wants to draw from that, but I found it interesting.

*Obviously a very basic way of looking at this concept that doesn't include Berrios fielding data or Buxton steals, effect on positioning by other fielders because of his range, etc. etc. etc.

I just want to commend you for a highly interesting post that probably took you some time to put together!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Found this to be an interesting argument/discussion point so wanted to look up some numbers (baseball reference was my source for this data).

Batters faced per season by Berrios from 2016-today: 281, 616, 797, 842, 271, 338. Total: 3145

Plate appearances per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 331, 511, 94, 295, 135, 110. Total: 1476

Fielding "Chances" (putouts + assists + errors) per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 249, 400, 70, 224, 105, 71. Total: 1119

PA and Chances total for Buxton: 2595

So Berrios has influenced 3145 "events" on the field since his debut and Buxton has influenced 2595. Don't know what you, or anyone else, wants to draw from that, but I found it interesting.

*Obviously a very basic way of looking at this concept that doesn't include Berrios fielding data or Buxton steals, effect on positioning by other fielders because of his range, etc. etc. etc.

Agreed - very interesting. 

Plus, for starting pitchers, it’s already baked into the negotiation. 

No agent is going to come back to the starting pitcher client and say, “the team wants to offer you more, but they have concerns that you started in only 32 games last season.” With Buxton, his time missed will be a huge concern for teams bidding on him. At this point he won’t have a strong comeback for them, either.

[MABB1959]

I would like to keep them both and think the Twins organization should pay them.   I think one issue will be....do they want to play here?  I think they would take less to play on a team that is at least a contender every year so they potentially can make it to a WS.  I would love to know how many talented players have the Twins on listed in their contact as a no trade team.

[howeda7]

Both. We're the Cardinals not the Rays. 5/$110 for Berrios. 5/$100 for Buxton with some incentives for plate appearances.