How likely is Taylor Rogers to be traded at the deadline?

[John Bonnes]

Taylor Rogers, the Twins defacto closer, is still one year away from free agency, but has several attributes that make him more likely to be traded. I think that's the case even if they are reloading, instead of rebuilding. I'm wondering what the community thinks.

• He's good, so he'll be worth something.
• He's left-handed. They're almost always in demand at the deadline. Being a guy who can either be used as a left-handed setup man or a closer makes him even more attractive.
• He's going to be kind of expensive next year. This last year, we wondered if the Twins would offer him arbitration, but they got a deal done at $5.5M. I'm guessing he gets $7M-$7.5M next year, and the Twins payroll doesn't leave a lot of extra room as is.  
• Twins traded Ryan Pressly away one year before he hit free agency, too.
• In fact, this organization seems to operate like relievers are fairly replaceable (though that has bit them quite a bit this year.)

Provided he stays healthy, it feels like he's the kind of arm teams will ask about, and while he won't bring back starting pitching next year, he could bring back some fairly decent A-ball prospects, or maybe a AA reliever with some big upside. (Pressly was traded for Celestino and Alcala.) What do we think?

[Number3]

Nothing like a 5 game winning streak to muck up the works. At least wait until after the Indians & White Sox series are over.

[Dman]

Hate to see the Twins trade any Left handed pitchers as they seem to have tough time finding them.  In this case I think it depends on a lot of factors.  1st how many guys are they trading at the deadline?  How many prospects will they need or be able to play?  They might get two for Cruz, Two for Pineda, Another for Simmons, and maybe another for Robles, if they trade Rogers do they even have room for that many guys in the system?  

2nd with the bullpen showing up as a big weakness this year do we really want the one reliable arm we have traded away?  He is a lefty as well and that makes it even harder to let him go. 

To your point though he will never have more prospect value than he does now and he can't help the team the last half of this year and like we found out with May when it comes time to pony up for relievers the Twins let them leave with no compensation.  

So yeah they would have to and likely will look at trade scenarios for Rogers.  They won't let him go on the cheap but if a team thinks he is their missing piece and overpays I assume the Twins will seal the deal.

[jjswol]

Trading Taylor Rogers would be a huge mistake for the Twins unless they are offered a deal they can't refuse and that deal needs to include a player major league ready. Rogers isn't having his best season but he should be this years Twins representative to the All-Star game. The Athletics have made a habit of trading or letting closers go and they have been successful but the Twins FO doesn't measure up to the A's front office. 

[wsnydes]

It would be nice to have one reliable reliever around.  Longevity with the team might also have some value.  I think is have to be wowed in order to deal him.

 

That said, if they dealt him I wouldn't really be disappointed by it.  If that's how they think they can improve, then that's what they should do.

[Tim]

Taylor Rogers has more value than we think. Left handed relievers who over the course of the last 3 years (aside from covid shortened season), have averaged 60-70 games, with a 10.5/K9, and a 2.63 ERA don't grow on trees. 

He also has another year of control on his deal. Take a look at what guys like Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman have brought back in recent years at the deadline. Teams overpay for lockdown arms at the deadline. Deploying these late inning guys has been the blueprint to success in the postseason.

While Rogers is not on the same level as Chapman and Miller, the packages are interesting to examine. 

The Yankees received Clint Frazier, the no. 15 prospect in baseball, and Justus Sheffield, the no. 78 prospect in baseball for Andrew Miller, who at the time had a reasonable contract with 2.5 years remaining. I suppose that's what 1.39 ERA and 77k's in 44IP gets you.

Aroldis Chapman on an expiring deal was able to net the Yanks Gleyber Torres, the no. 17 prospect in baseball. That said, he was also cruising with a 2.01 ERA to that point.

Zach Britton, on an expiring deal, brought the Orioles the no. 7 prospect (Tate) and no. 17 prospect (Carroll) from within the Yankees farm system in 2018. He also had only pitched 15 innings that season to the tune of 3.45 ERA.. Rogers should bring a return better than that.

My point is that teams will overpay for relievers who have proven track records of being dominant. Rogers is not getting you the deal that Chapman and Miller got the Yankees, but he certainly can get you more than what Britton got the Orioles. 

This front office does not pay for relievers. Yes, Addison Reed and Colome are exceptions, but still I think you guys get my point.... Rogers will command close to 10-12 million in free agency and I can't envision Falvey going for that.

I'd look at the Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays, Padres, and Dodgers as potential fits. 

[Game7-91]

I like the idea of exploring the possibilities next month, have felt for some time he provides most value of reasonably tradeable assets. Agree with others here, Twins FO unlikely to pay him if he continues to pitch well. There is a larger point here of the inscrutable economics of MLB, and why most franchises like Twins are forced to constantly shed elite players. Maddening. The Pressly trade hurt this team..he would have made a difference in playoffs. Now with Duran hurt and Celestino not ready for prime time, its just hard to both "keep the window" open while simultaneously re-tooling to shape the budget. Is what it is. Rogers might be an interesting target for a # of teams, and though not Pressly level, would more than likely bring an interesting offer or two. Might be better though to look to move him over the winter-would seem a better chance to receive MLB ready player in return in Dec than in July.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think Rodgers falls into the same category as Berrios or Buxton. I think the twins need to first see if they can sign him to a longer-term deal. He can be a core part of a championship team‘s bullpen. If they can’t, trade Him at the deadline but only if you are completely overwhelmed. The better market tends to be in the off-season and that also gives you a chance for one last attempt to re-sign him.

My personal prediction is there will be a lot of talk, rumors, etc. about Berrios, Buxton and Rogers but none of them will be traded at the deadline. 

 

[Major League Ready]

On 6/22/2021 at 9:55 AM, Dman said:

Hate to see the Twins trade any Left handed pitchers as they seem to have tough time finding them.  In this case I think it depends on a lot of factors.  1st how many guys are they trading at the deadline?  How many prospects will they need or be able to play?  They might get two for Cruz, Two for Pineda, Another for Simmons, and maybe another for Robles, if they trade Rogers do they even have room for that many guys in the system?  

2nd with the bullpen showing up as a big weakness this year do we really want the one reliable arm we have traded away?  He is a lefty as well and that makes it even harder to let him go. 

To your point though he will never have more prospect value than he does now and he can't help the team the last half of this year and like we found out with May when it comes time to pony up for relievers the Twins let them leave with no compensation.  

So yeah they would have to and likely will look at trade scenarios for Rogers.  They won't let him go on the cheap but if a team thinks he is their missing piece and overpays I assume the Twins will seal the deal.

This is a darn good point.  Let's hope they can pull off deals for quality over quantity.  As we all know, teams are increasingly unwilling to deal high ceiling prospects but if I were the guy negotiating it would be pushing the negotiation toward a single prospect of higher quality over whatever two prospects were offered.  Again, much easier said than done but we have some trade candidates this year that might make this possible.

[Mike Sixel]

I had not even considered this......if they feel next year is retooling, and not CONTENDING (i.e., might happen, but not likely), it makes sense to deal him. But, ya, I'd want a really good prospect in return (pitching or SS).

As for quality over quantity....I wonder if they can deal (never happens, but it is like a 3 team deal) for quantity, and deal some of those and some of the existing ones for a smaller number of higher ceiling prospects? I doubt it, more likely a 3 team trade (which, really, is the same thing, but prospect for prospect deals almost never happen).

[jorgenswest]

Rogers is 30. He is not under control for 2023. He is at an age where I would not extend and pay for the decline.

The Twins should absolutely look to trade him. It isn’t a situation where they need to trade him no matter the best offer but they shouldn’t need to be blown away either. 

Sell high. Sell this summer.

[Battle ur tail off]

I don't mind trading him at all. If the offer is good. That said if it isn't, keep him and dump next year at the deadline or just let him walk at the end of next season. 

Dumping guys that are successful just because you think you have to has gotten the Twins into trouble before. 

I need a top 100 prospect in baseball to even pickup the phone...

[Dodecahedron]

Yes, trade Taylor Rogers.  This is, after all, the shortest path to repeating the Ryan Pressly mistake a second time.  After this is accomplished, The Twins can recycle other old favorites like trading away the entire outfield and forgetting to sign draft picks.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Yes, trade Taylor Rogers.  This is, after all, the shortest path to repeating the Ryan Pressly mistake a second time.  After this is accomplished, The Twins can recycle other old favorites like trading away the entire outfield and forgetting to sign draft picks.

How do you propose they acquire more players, if not by trading off any of their existing good players? I'm not saying I'd deal him for sure, but people saying not to trade any good players....I just don't see where they get enough good players for 2023 and beyond.....and I see almost no way they have enough pitching next year even if they keep Rogers. If you see a path to that, I'm all eyes and ears, because I think they have enough fielding and hitting....

[Dodecahedron]

Good questions.  I don't know, but I think simply using pitchers in situations that work for them would improve the team ERA by at least half a point.  The Twins may not need a full rebuild, and heck I would be surprised if they do, they just need to stop treating every decision as an experiment in analytics.  The precedents in baseball exist because they work, the Twins could stand to use at least a few of them.  If you are acting like a trailblazer on every decision you make, suddenly you no longer have a strategy at all.

Right now, the Twins could practically replace Baldelli and the front office with a bunch of computers.  I'm sure this roster and these game strategies worked great in The Show, but that's not baseball, even if it looks like it.

[Rosterman]

Yes, he could bring a prospect haul. Have to see where teams are in the wild card hunt.

 

But the Twins promised, when we gave them Target Field, that they could NOW AFFORD to keep their own free agents. Part of long-term salary is also a reward for what you have done in your underpaid past with the organization. If a team doesn't show monetary loyalty to a player they have developed, then the player needn't look to working a hometown discount, or favoring the team that brought them into the bigs when the world of baseball is out there looking in.

 

 

[USAFChief]

Great topic, John. Personally, I think you have to trade Rogers, even though I hate the idea.

At the least, the fate of Rogers (and Berrios) will tell us how Falvine view 2022. If Berrios and Rogers are dealt, we'll know they don't believe the Twins can contend next year. Dealing Cruz, for example, doesn't tell us much because he wasn't likely to be a Twin next year anyway. But dealing good players with team control...well, that's a pretty clear statement about where we're at.

(Buxton too, except his fractured pinkie makes dealing him tricky at the least, impossible if he takes longer coming off the IL.)

[USAFChief]

On 6/22/2021 at 9:55 AM, Dman said:

 1st how many guys are they trading at the deadline?  How many prospects will they need or be able to play?  They might get two for Cruz, Two for Pineda, Another for Simmons, and maybe another for Robles, if they trade Rogers do they even have room for that many guys in the system?  

 

There certainly are reasons not to trade Rogers, but "too many prospects" isn't one of them.

There is no such thing as too many prospects. Every team in baseball would love to have too many prospects.