It’s Time to Pay Jose Berrios

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

This is exactly why the "trade Berrios now" talk makes no sense.  Trade for whom?  And how do you fill the hole he leaves?

Unless the ball club has decided to rebuild from the ground up, or if Berrios and his agent will settle for nothing less than the greatest amount they can obtain on the market, this is the correct approach.  Smart management doesn't deal away personnel without knowing whom they will plug in as a replacement.  Even if he is only ever a number 2 or 3 arm, having Berrios spend his most productive (or even all) years with the Twins is likely to benefit the club.  Everyone they have on the farm is at least a season away from being as good as he is now, and dealing for someone as good or better is always fraught with peril.

Dance with them that brung ya - and pay 'em, too.

You do know that Tampa Bay traded away Snell, right.  They also lost Morton to free agency.  They have the best record in baseball with half the financial resource of many teams.  Why. because they understand  how to maximize asset return.  Boston let's Betts go and many said it was the end of them.  They seem to be doing fine to me.  Chicago traded away Sale and Eaton because they realized they could not reasonably expect to contend during their tenue.  How did that work out?

While I would prefer to "dance" with home grown players.  I will opt for signing an equivalent outside player if the homegrown player requires a significant overpay.  Especially if I can get at top prospect in return.  He might flop but he might also be better than Berrios.  Now I have two "Berrios equivalent" players for the same price.  We could call this the Tampa Bay philosophy.

[Whitey333]

Great comments by all!!  Isn't it fun how we all play general manager and budget payroll dollars from ownership?  I will join the group by saying yes we need to keep Berrios.  No blank check though.  Must be reasonable.  If we spend to much on a guy who generally "works" once a week he won't have any good players around him.  On the other hand wasting money like we did on Happ, Shoemaker, et al was foolish.  Idk 5/75 sounds reasonable.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree !  great comments and discussion.  I think 6/$150 is a little high.  But it depends on how close they think Balazovic, Duran and Canterino are and what they could get in a return trade.  I think they need to keep him and build around him.

[dbminn]

6 hours ago, old nurse said:

Did the trades the White Sox made for their starting players a few years ago set the franchise further back? Did trading Knoblauch set the Twins back?

Ted wants a retool, not a complete roster teardown. The White Sox traded their veterans for prospects in 2016 and 2017.  It took 4 to 5 years for them to develop. For the Twins, that means they would be ready to compete when Larnach, Jeffers and Kirilloff are about to become free agents.

[Major League Ready]

4 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree !  great comments and discussion.  I think 6/$150 is a little high.  But it depends on how close they think Balazovic, Duran and Canterino are and what they could get in a return trade.  I think they need to keep him and build around him.

Are you thinking if Duran / Balazovic / Canterino and I will add Winder are close they should keep him or they could let him go if they think these prospects are close?  . 

[roger]

Thought this was a great article, Ted, until I started reading the comments.  I really want to see the Twins keep Berrios and build a starting rotation that can win around him.  But will agree with those who say that if he isn't reasonable in his demands, they need to move him...now.  And by reasonable I see accepting a deal that is more, but close, to what the market would consider fair.

I do have one question.  You state that Berrios is not among the top ten pitchers in the game.  I don't know who you consider top 10, but I have a feeling many of us would take him over a couple of those guys you may have around 7-10.

Really like the comments Major League Ready made regarding the return from a trade, when you include spending most of the dollars you would pay Berrios on another free agent(s) because the prospects will all be at minimum when they arrive.  Interesting thought!  Tampa doesn't have the dollars and can't do that, the Twins can so they should be even better than the Rays.

The Twins 2021 season is over, now let's watch the fun surrounding this team as management attempts to fix their problems.

[jmlease1]

Isn't the comp to look at Zack Wheeler? Yes, Wheeler was a bit older, but from a career perspective there's a lot of similarities: very good pitchers, never great. Belief that there's still another level to unlock for them, similar ERA+. Wheeler got 5 for $115M. I'm sure Berrios is thinking "I;m younger than this guy, I'm better than this guy, I'm never hurt...I should get 5 for $125, minimum."

Is he wrong? It's an interesting question. All it takes is one.

I'd lock up Berrios on 5 for $85M in a heartbeat, and I think the Twins would too. I think he's said no. The number will have to be over $100M for him to even consider it, because I'm sure he can get that on the open market and he's shown he's more than willing to bet on himself. and it's paid off for him.

We are not talking AAV of $15-17M for Berrios on an extension. We're talking $20-25M if we actually want to sign him.

[Major League Ready]

6 minutes ago, dbminn said:

Ted wants a retool, not a complete roster teardown. The White Sox traded their veterans for prospects in 2016 and 2017.  It took 4 to 5 years for them to develop. For the Twins, that means they would be ready to compete when Larnach, Jeffers and Kirilloff are about to become free agents.

They got Moncada prior the winter between 2016-17 and he played 54 games in 2017 and was full-time in 2018.  The equivalent in this case would be a prospect who is playing for us full-time in 2023.  Giolito was up in 2017 as well.  He just wasnt good until 2019.  That trade had a huge impact on them becoming a contender.  The Cardinals let Pujlos go after a 90 win season in 2011 and won 97 in 2013.  We have been over Tampa letting Snell go.  

It's very reasonable to believe the Twins could trade for prospect(s) that will be ready in 2023.  Anyone who believes this mess is going to be completely turned around next year is welcome to that belief but I believe that is purely fanatical think.  They are going to contend again if and when the current SP prospects can contribute significantly to a contender.  When that time comes an additional top prospect could be aiding that contention for several years.  Tampa understands these principals better than most teams which is why they contend with 1/2 the revenue as most teams.  

[Karbo]

Pay him. 17-19m per year seems fair. What is he asking? The guy is reliable, and any other team would love to have him. Pay him. Cant stomach much more of this kind of ball. Need pitching, it isnt free and it doesnt look like we have a bunch of sure things coming up from the minors. If the kids do come up and show they can take over trade him then.

[terrydactyls]

9 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I promise you, the return for either Buxton or Berrios, no matter what it is, will set this franchise back farther than it propels it forwards.

It will set them back further than waiting until they walk away and the Twins get nothing?

[mikelink45]

I am delighted with this essay.  You really hit this topic at the right time, but for Berrios agent it is the right time too.  Berrios has been steady for years, he has been good enough that we have wasted a lot of time debating if he is or will be an ace.  He is just a plain good pitcher.  We have had a lot of good but not necessarily Ace staff leaders - Radtke, Viola, Perry, Kaat, Grant, Goltz and they have led the staff and team well.  

I went to Fangraphs to see where Berrios ranks with all the other pitchers in MLB and he is 30th in FIP, and K/9 but does not make the top 30 except in wins (which most except me do not count) where he is 7th.  The reason that I do count wins is that it means he held the opposition down so that the last place team could score enough to win and he pitched long enough that the mediocre BP did not have a chance to blow the win. And somehow he kept Captain Hook Baldelli from yanking him from the mound. 

What I do not know is if this team and his agent can have the conversation that is needed to get this done.  Take Berrios out of our rotation and we would still be in last place - no player (not even Mike Trout) can make a team great by themselves,  But pitching is still the most valuable asset to any team and this teams choices from FA market have stunk and I agree with Ted - prospects and a free agent are not going to let us climb back up.  Except for pitching I think we have the makings of another good run, but pitching is still the key and the dream of minor leaguers has to be tempered.  I remember thinking Gonsalves was going to be a long term fixture in our rotation after reading all the prospect reports on TD.  I though Griffen Jax would come up and show that he was ready (better than Bailey I thought based on what I read).  I thought we had found a real diamond in the rough with Dobnak, that Thorpe might have turned it around, but they and Smeltzer show that the transition is not as easy as we all hope.   The prospects we would get in return for Berrios would have the same difficulties.  Prospects - Colina, Burdi, Graterol (now a Dodger) that throw so hard also find the IL to be their team.

Now I dream of Canterino, Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Bailey and Berrios and hope that all the things I have read are accurate.  But most important is that we keep what we have and the team may have waited too long to pursue this extension but I hope not. 

[Seansy]

My position with both Berrios and Buxton is the same. Extend them if they will sign a "reasonable" extension (~5/100M tops for Berrios and ~6/150M tops for Buxton for me imo) or trade them at the deadline while their value is at its peak. If you cannot get get good value on a trade you can still just hang on to them and try to extend them in the offseason one last time.

The Twins should be able to get at least 1 if not 2 top 100 prospects for each. Ideally you get a future CF replacement like Pache and future rotation piece like Gore, Pearson, SWR, or Baz back to replace the guy you trade away, then use some of the money saved to sign a quality FA or two like Gausman/Stroman/Baez/Correa and combine all of that to reload for 2022. 

Call it Tampa Bay 2.0 because the Twins payroll isn't THAT low.

[GNess]

Of course the Twins should sign Berrios to an extension! Which ML pitchers in the organization project to be as good as him? Should theTwins be confident that any of them will reach Berrios' level? Pitching is a central factor for almost all contending teams.

If he wants to test free agency they may have to overpay him some to get it done. Yes, I get it - the Rays wouldn't overpay him - well the Twins aren't the Rays for a lot of reasons. I will leave the actual numbers to those of you more dialed into such stuff.

[In My La Z boy]

I do not have confidence in our FO to make the right deal. So far the duo is no Tampa Bay. 

"But most important is that we keep what we have" 
- mikelink45



 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

You do know that Tampa Bay traded away Snell, right.  They also lost Morton to free agency.  They have the best record in baseball with half the financial resource of many teams.  Why. because they understand  how to maximize asset return.  Boston let's Betts go and many said it was the end of them.  They seem to be doing fine to me.  Chicago traded away Sale and Eaton because they realized they could not reasonably expect to contend during their tenue.  How did that work out?

While I would prefer to "dance" with home grown players.  I will opt for signing an equivalent outside player if the homegrown player requires a significant overpay.  Especially if I can get at top prospect in return.  He might flop but he might also be better than Berrios.  Now I have two "Berrios equivalent" players for the same price.  We could call this the Tampa Bay philosophy.

Several points:

• The Twins are not Tampa, Boston or Chicago
• We agree that overpayment is to be avoided; always know when to walk away
• There are always going to be trades that work well for one or both parties (the Twins appear to have gotten the better of the Graterol - Maeda deal, for example, at least in the short term), but they are inherently riskier than re-signing an asset already in the organization simply because of greater number of unknowns
• In terms of WHIP, H9 and BB9 this is Berrios' best season ever, why should the ball club walk away from that?
• Shopping himself is a calculated risk for Berrios, as well; he might get the money he wants, but money is not everything
• Most important, when trading away an asset, regardless of what is received, have an understudy ready to grow into the role; the hard fact is that the Twins do not have another pitcher that could do as much for the club's performance as Berrios has done since 2017, were there currently someone with the organization already at his 2017 - 2018 level then it might make sense to deal him, but there is not

Bottom line:  Make him a generous offer that acknowledges his performance and his upside, and build around him; if he pushes it back across the desk then know it wasn't meant to be - deal him for prospects and let him be another club's problem

[ashbury]

9 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Then he doesn't know what the market will bear?

He doesn't.  He and his agent have educated guesses.  But it's still a year and a half out before they can "know".

You've seen those hurricane cone maps? 

It's kind of like that, except probably with even more variance, and without a certainty of "weakening" like a storm will do as its geographic track plays out.

We're at Wednesday AM right now.  We're trying to pick a price that shuts the door on him finding out where the Monday AM location will be.  Some players might accept the conservative offer, to reduce all the risk.  Other players are said to "bet on themselves", and you will have to offer pretty close to the maximum in that cone of probabilities, to shut that door for them.

5 years for $80M is $16M a year.  That is Kimbrel/Chapman territory - top relievers, but starters get more.  Money like Bauer and Cole got may not be achievable.  But I'm thinking $20M for 7 years is what's needed to get him to say, "OK, never mind about the Yankees and free agency." 1.5 years away, $140M will get his attention, $80M will not.

[beckmt]

18 minutes ago, Seansy said:

My position with both Berrios and Buxton is the same. Extend them if they will sign a "reasonable" extension (~5/100M tops for Berrios and ~6/150M tops for Buxton for me imo) or trade them at the deadline while their value is at its peak. If you cannot get get good value on a trade you can still just hang on to them and try to extend them in the offseason one last time.

The Twins should be able to get at least 1 if not 2 top 100 prospects for each. Ideally you get a future CF replacement like Pache and future rotation piece like Gore, Pearson, SWR, or Baz back to replace the guy you trade away, then use some of the money saved to sign a quality FA or two like Gausman/Stroman/Baez/Correa and combine all of that to reload for 2022. 

Call it Tampa Bay 2.0 because the Twins payroll isn't THAT low.

5/100 will not get it done, if that were the price I believe it would have been done now.  With no guarantee of a season next year buy prices might be lower than we believe,  tough position.  Berrios may command 1 100 top prospect (probably 50 - 75) range and other pieces. I do believe this FO has a clue, so it would  probably work out, but don't want to go there.  

[chpettit19]

Resigning him should be option 1 for the Twins, and I think it is. They've reportedly offered him extensions the last few years and he's turned them all down. I'd guess those numbers were around the 5/80 type idea suggested in the original article. Berrios seems to be willing to bet that he can get more than that, and, frankly, he should make that bet. He's been incredibly durable and had no injury issues. If I remember correctly he just set the team record for consecutive starts with 4 or fewer runs allowed (or something like that). If 5/80ish is all he can get on the market I'd be absolutely shocked.

5/110 would be my guess for the area he ends up in. Maybe it's 5/100 or 5/120, but I'd be floored if he doesn't get 100 from someone. Have the Twins already offered that? We'll never know. If I were them I'd approach his team with 5/100 between now and the deadline. If they say no I offer 5/110. If there's no sign that we're close I shop him to the highest bidder. Assuming he brings back a legit arm in return I move him. I think 2022 will be better than 2021 has been, but they aren't going to contend for a WS even with him. 2023 would be my target year. If I can get a close to ready arm that I can throw in with Balazovic, Duran, Canterino, Winder, et al I do it. If I can lock him up for 5/110ish, or at least feel I'm in the ballpark and an extension is possible, I do that. What I don't do is go into 2022 with Berrios on a 1 year deal. He'll hit the open market for sure then and I don't want any part of losing him for a comp pick only.

[mikelink45]

I am fascinated by all the contract amounts that the posts put out.  They are so out of line with my life I cannot relate so I never put dollars in my posts.  Baseball is a fantasy league even in MLB.  Reality is suspended, worth is measured in velocity, speed, distance... Even with my old economics degree I could not begin to speculate on salaries.  Pay him in bitcoins, they don't seem real to me either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

My guess is the starting number is $100 million. Think Wheeler. 6/$110 million sounds right.

Wheeler is the logical starting point. Here are Wheeler's stats with the Mets:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards
2013	23	NYM	NL	7	5	.583	3.42	17	17	0	0	0	0	100.0	90	42	38	10	46	2	84	4	0	6	431	104	4.17	1.360	8.1	0.9	4.1	7.6	1.83
2014	24	NYM	NL	11	11	.500	3.54	32	32	0	1	1	0	185.1	167	84	73	14	79	3	187	11	0	9	794	97	3.55	1.327	8.1	0.7	3.8	9.1	2.37
2017	27	NYM	NL	3	7	.300	5.21	17	17	0	0	0	0	86.1	97	53	50	15	40	1	81	3	0	1	386	79	5.03	1.587	10.1	1.6	4.2	8.4	2.03
2018	28	NYM	NL	12	7	.632	3.31	29	29	0	0	0	0	182.1	150	69	67	14	55	0	179	9	1	2	744	112	3.25	1.124	7.4	0.7	2.7	8.8	3.25
2019	29	NYM	NL	11	8	.579	3.96	31	31	0	0	0	0	195.1	196	93	86	22	50	4	195	2	0	5	828	104	3.48	1.259	9.0	1.0	2.3	9.0	3.90
7 Yrs				53	43	.552	3.53	151	151	0	2	2	0	916.2	835	391	360	85	308	13	897	39	1	26	3844	109	3.54	1.247	8.2	0.8	3.0	8.8	2.91
162 Game Avg.				12	10	.552	3.53	34	34	0	0	0	0	206	188	88	81	19	69	3	202	9	0	6	866	109	3.54	1.247	8.2	0.8	3.0	8.8	2.91

And Berrios' stats through today:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards
2016	22	MIN	AL	3	7	.300	8.02	14	14	0	0	0	0	58.1	74	56	52	12	35	0	49	5	0	1	281	53	6.20	1.869	11.4	1.9	5.4	7.6	1.40
2017	23	MIN	AL	14	8	.636	3.89	26	25	0	0	0	0	145.2	131	71	63	15	48	0	139	13	1	7	616	114	3.84	1.229	8.1	0.9	3.0	8.6	2.90
2018	24	MIN	AL	12	11	.522	3.84	32	32	0	2	1	0	192.1	159	83	82	25	61	1	202	13	0	2	797	111	3.90	1.144	7.4	1.2	2.9	9.5	3.31	AS
2019	25	MIN	AL	14	8	.636	3.68	32	32	0	1	0	0	200.1	194	94	82	26	51	0	195	9	1	8	842	122	3.85	1.223	8.7	1.2	2.3	8.8	3.82	AS
2020	26	MIN	AL	5	4	.556	4.00	12	12	0	0	0	0	63.0	57	28	28	8	26	0	68	3	0	5	271	107	4.06	1.317	8.1	1.1	3.7	9.7	2.62
2021	27	MIN	AL	7	2	.778	3.49	13	13	0	0	0	0	77.1	64	32	30	10	20	0	81	4	0	1	311	116	3.68	1.086	7.4	1.2	2.3	9.4	4.05
6 Yrs				55	40	.579	4.12	129	128	0	3	1	0	737.0	679	364	337	96	241	1	734	47	2	24	3118	105	4.05	1.248	8.3	1.2	2.9	9.0	3.05
162 Game Avg.				15	11	.579	4.12	34	34	0	1	0	0	195	180	96	89	25	64	0	194	12	1	6	825	105	4.05	1.248	8.3	1.2	2.9	9.0	3.05

Those are close enough that I'd consider them a wash, though Berrios has a one year age advantage over Wheeler, which is worth noting. Also, Berrios' injury track record has been phenomenal in today's game.

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

This is exactly why the "trade Berrios now" talk makes no sense.  Trade for whom?  And how do you fill the hole he leaves?

Unless the ball club has decided to rebuild from the ground up, or if Berrios and his agent will settle for nothing less than the greatest amount they can obtain on the market, this is the correct approach.  Smart management doesn't deal away personnel without knowing whom they will plug in as a replacement.  Even if he is only ever a number 2 or 3 arm, having Berrios spend his most productive (or even all) years with the Twins is likely to benefit the club.  Everyone they have on the farm is at least a season away from being as good as he is now, and dealing for someone as good or better is always fraught with peril.

Dance with them that brung ya - and pay 'em, too.

If no one on the farm is ready next year, they aren't winning anything next year. If he won't sign for a number the twins want, why not trade him?

[jbooth2367]

I'd pay Berrios if that number doesn't go above the 17-18 per year range. 4 year 72, or 5-85 seems like a fair number. If he wants more, I would look at moving him. The trade market for starting pitching this year is incredibly thin, and 1.5 years of control for Berrios would bring back great value. If we could get a major league ready starter or someone close with a skillset equivalent to Manoah (Had he been in the minors still, maybe the Jays would have moved him, but now that he has had some success in the majors can't imagine they will now), and 1 or 2 other decent players that have a chance to be a starter down the road and/or a good bullpen piece, it would be hard to say no. If you trade Berrios though, you have to end up with one of the top free agent pitchers. Per spotrac, Scherzer's market value will be 1 year 29 mil. If you can entice him with more years but less AAV (Maybe 3 year 66 mil?) that would be big. I believe Scherzer will be better than Berrios over the next 3 years, and if he regresses, he may be around Berrios' career averages. A 3 year contract for Scherzer would free up more money to maybe backload a deal for Buxton. Of course, there is the possibility no big free agent starter may want to come here. If you believe that you can't lure any starter, than you probably have to overpay Berrios.

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Then he doesn't know what the market will bear?

You said pay him what he wants. I'm asking if that is really true....

I think it is pretty clear he wants more than the Twins want to pay, or he'd be signed.

 

[Dodecahedron]

There are too many unknowns around Berrios and his future with the Twins.

I can understand being excited about free agency, but that's still a long way off.  I'd be surprised if Berrios is thinking about this as much as we are.

We don't know if Berrios simply wants to bolt, which is his right to do.  We also don't know if the Twins have approached him with any offers.

If I were the Twins, I would search hard for the right number with him.  He may not be an ace, but he is a Radke-type.  The Twins did everything they could to keep Radke and he ended up having the highest WAR of any pitcher in a Twins uniform.  Having Berrios around would give the team one less thing to worry about.  If the Twins are worried about the risk of a long contract, and yes they should worry about this, a contract with milestones and incentives could do the trick.  $10M base + up to $10M more which should be easily attainable unless he is injured for a long period of time.

[1991]

12 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I can’t imagine a worse time to try and extend Berrios after what could be a 90+ loss season. He’s given every indication he’s testing free agency, so this article is 1.5 years too early to talk about. 

I’m just glad the author recognizes that he is a low 2 high 3.

[Ted Schwerzler]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

What if it is 25 per year, six years?

I can't imagine any scenario where he thinks that's logical. Twins or on the open market.

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you thinking if Duran / Balazovic / Canterino and I will add Winder are close they should keep him or they could let him go if they think these prospects are close?  . 

They all should be close, though Canterino is now dealing with an injury. The problem is that the likelihood they all work out, and at the same time, isn't high. You build the rotation with that, but they can't immediately be your foundation.

[Ted Schwerzler]

I posted this on Twitter, and given my stance that this team can compete in 2022 while not needing a rebuild, nothing about this group should make Berrios expendable.

 

The 2022 free agent SP class is loaded! Greinke, Verlander, Kershaw, Bauer, Scherzer, Stroman, Gausman. That's probably the list of those better than Berrios. Paying any of them? Any of them have interest in coming to MN? Realistically, Stroman/Gausman should be paired WITH Jose

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

 $10M base + up to $10M more which should be easily attainable unless he is injured for a long period of time.

Not sure what incentive Berrios would have to sign an incentive laden extension at this point. He's 1 year away from free agency and has had no injury concerns to this point in his career. Even TJ surgery next year doesn't stop him from getting a fully guaranteed deal during the offseason from someone. At this point the Twins will have to get pretty close to, or go over, what he feels his max value on the market is for him to sacrifice the chance to pick his team and go after the biggest money possible if he so chooses.

[Johnny Ringo]

This starts with a flawed premise. Berrios would blow his nose at a 5 year/$80 contract from the Twins. It seems odd even writing that but it's true. The Nola contract as discussed is true but contextually misleading . That covered 3 years of arbitration plus his first year of free agency.  Berrios will not take a hometown discount. He will view Minnesota as most free agents do; you need to overpay me or I will go elsewhere. Ownership doesn't seem to understand the cost of 30 years of playoff irrelevancy. When you are rich regardless of the team; winning becomes a powerful currency. Berrios won't get Cole money but he will explore that possibility.  He will dream. Berrios will gone after next year. Trade him now.