Game Recap: Twins 7, Mariners 2

[Andrew Thares]

Bailey Ober shined in tonight's ballgame, as his strong start helped the Minnesota Twins avoid the three-game sweep at the hands of the Seattle Mariners.

Box Score

Ober: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Home Runs: Cruz (14); Jeffers (4)

Top 3 WPA: Ober .195; Polanco .145; Donaldson .096

Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs)

Bailey Ober Faced the Minimum in Four Innings of Work

Bailey Ober brought his A game to the mound tonight, as he was in complete control, dominating the Seattle Mariners lineup in four innings of work. The only baserunner that he allowed was a leadoff single in the fourth to J.P. Crawford. Crawford would later be thrown out in a strike’em out throw’em out double play. Crawford was initially ruled safe on the play, but after a Twins challenge he was ruled out as he came off the base for a brief moment while Luis Arraez had the tag applied.

It was not just good batted ball fortune that allowed Ober to have success tonight, as he did much of the dirty work himself, striking out six of the twelve batters that he faced. While Ober does not possess overpowering stuff, he has built himself a reputation as a strikeout pitcher in the minors, as he owns a career 11.1 K/9 across four seasons of minor league ball. Add this in with a miniscule BB/9 of just 1.2 and Ober has a great foundation to have a lot of success pitching at the big-league level.

Cruz and Jeffers Both Homer in Four-Run Fifth

After failing to capitalize in a couple of prime opportunities in his first two at-bats of the evening, Nelson Cruz did not miss on a third, as he absolutely pummeled a first pitch fastball, with two on and nobody out, that left the bat with an exit velocity of 112.3 MPH and traveled an estimated 421 feet.

 

After an Alex Kirilloff ground out for the first out of the fifth, Ryan Jeffers stepped to the plate and belted his fourth home run of the season to give the Twins the 7-0 lead. This was Jeffers fourth home run of the season, all four of which have come since he was recalled to the Twins on June 2nd to replace Mitch Garver who went on the Injured List.

 

Both Donaldson and Simmons Leave with Injuries

Tell me if you have heard this one before, Josh Donaldson had to leave Wednesday night’s ball game early with calf tightness. He appeared to tweak the calf when he advanced to second on a throw home after singling in the first. Willians Astudillo replaced Donaldson at third base and in the second spot in the order. Each of Astudillo’s first two plate appearances resulted in walks, which were the first two walks he had drawn since the 2019 season.

In addition to the Donaldson injury, Andrelton Simmons was also left the game early with what was reported to be ankle tightness. Simmons was replaced in the lineup by Trevor Larnach, who took over in left for Luis Arraez who moved into second, and bumping Jorge Polanco over to short. Hopefully this injury is not anything too serious, as a healthy Simmons could draw some interest from playoff contenders looking to upgrade their infield defense.

Bullpen Usage Chart

 

What's Next?

The Twins are off on Thursday before heading to Texas to begin a three game series with the Texas Rangers on Friday night at 7:05pm CT. Jose Berrios is scheduled to take the mound, opposite Mike Foltynewicz.

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[VivaBomboRivera!]

Somebody's gotta say it:

 

       GAME OBER

[Rosterman]

The Twins are taking it easy with Ober. He itched 100 innings back in 2014 un college, but 75 is his tops in the minors, and not many at all in 2019/2020. So they are hoping to get 15 or so starts out of him? Maybe the Twins need to use an opener? That way he could start by pitching to the middle of end of a lineup.

 

And also get a win!

 

[Old Twins Cap]

I don't know, you have to wonder if the Twins aren't developing a pathology that basically says:  "You are either injured, or you are going to get injured, and so, we are going to play you in a way that will prevent you from being injured which means we are not going to play you."

It's maddening.

And of course, Baldelli, he spent his entire career dealing with injuries and it eventually ended his playing days early.

Not sure where this ends, but it will never be with a World Series title.

Can we get back to having passion for playing the game?

[beckmt]

It proves that good starting pitching wins or at least gives you a good chance to win the game.  Looks like Ober is a part of the future, let's try some other of the young pitchers and see what we have.  Maybe the FO is hoping Happ and Shoemaker can pitch well enough to draw some interest, does not look like that is going to happen, so cut our losses.

[bighat]

6 minutes ago, beckmt said:

It proves that good starting pitching wins or at least gives you a good chance to win the game.  Looks like Ober is a part of the future, let's try some other of the young pitchers and see what we have.  Maybe the FO is hoping Happ and Shoemaker can pitch well enough to draw some interest, does not look like that is going to happen, so cut our losses.

Eeeee, let's put on the brakes a bit on Ober. Remember how Smelzer, Thorpe, and Littell started out? Do the names Kohl Stewart Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves ring a bell?

Ober's been OK, but hasn't exactly blown anyone away. Seattle is the worst hitting team in baseball (I think they've been no-hit twice already this season). I think Ober's performance says more about Happ than it does about Ober, unfortunately.

Any small chance the Twins had of ridding themselves of Josh Donaldson has likely disappeared. Enjoy Cruz while you can, he's not long in a Twins uniform.

But hey, a win. Better than a loss any day, no matter how you get one. Go Twins.

[mikelink45]

I just cannot stand Rocco's handling of SP.  Let him pitch the fifth, let him qualify for a win, it was an easy game for him, stretch him out.  Instead we bring in Thielbar who has been injured - he could have waited another inning.  I understand why giving him a chance when we have a big lead is a good idea.  Colome on the other hand, yuck, one inning, two hits, one run, one wild pitch, no Ks!!!???   He is just awful this year, put him in the Happ/shoemaker bin.  Move on.  Using Rogers and Alcala in this game made less sense.  If Ober had one or two more innings they would not have been needed  Theilbar and Colome would have ended the game.   

For all our injury prevention caution - Donaldson and Simmons pulled.  It is not working.  Just play the players, let them pitch, hit, field and when and if they get injured take them out then.

[Major League Ready]

Ober just might be the bright spot in a dark year.  Sure hope he continues to be part of the solution.  Also hoping for another bright spot or two.

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 minutes ago, bighat said:

Eeeee, let's put on the brakes a bit on Ober. Remember how Smelzer, Thorpe, and Littell started out? Do the names Kohl Stewart Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves ring a bell?

Ober's been OK, but hasn't exactly blown anyone away. Seattle is the worst hitting team in baseball (I think they've been no-hit twice already this season). I think Ober's performance says more about Happ than it does about Ober, unfortunately.

I agree that Ober still has a lot to prove but he looks WAY better than I expected.

2-3mph more on the fastball than previous seasons while retaining that excellent control and command. Add in his absurd height advantage throwing to the plate and he could stick for a few seasons, provided he doesn't fall into the tall guy trap of losing his mechanics constantly... but given how he has such a track record of control over his pitches, I think that's maybe less likely to happen than it would be with other guys of his height.

[Brock Beauchamp]

14 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I just cannot stand Rocco's handling of SP.  Let him pitch the fifth, let him qualify for a win, it was an easy game for him, stretch him out.

It's not about stretching him out, it's about keeping him on the mound as long as possible this season. Here are Ober's innings pitched since being drafted. I'm not sure it's possible for the Twins to be too cautious with the guy right now, given how little he has pitched in recent seasons (including zero game innings last year).

Year	Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	GS	IP
2017	21	0.3	Elizabethton	APPY	Rk	MIN	6	4	28.0
2018	22	0.1	Cedar Rapids	MIDW	A	MIN	14	14	75.0
2019	23		3 Teams	3 Lgs	A+-AA-Rk	MIN	14	13	78.2
2019	23	-1.3	Pensacola	SOUL	AA	MIN	4	4	24.0
2019	23	0.1	Fort Myers	FLOR	A+	MIN	8	8	45.2
2019	23	2.7	Twins	GULF	Rk	MIN	2	1	9.0
2021	25	-2.2	St. Paul	AAAE	AAA	MIN	4	4	16.0
2021	25	-3.8	MIN	AL	Maj	MIN	4	4	17.0

 

[Mark G]

I guess I am showing my age again, but the kid is 25 and in the prime of his physical life, and he can't throw more than 63 pitches???  There is a reason we can't keep players on the field; they baby them so as not to get hurt, and, as such, they are not in good enough condition to not get hurt.  Sounds like a Yogi Berra commercial.  Baldelli has a managing philosophy that says Plan A is to use anywhere from 3 - 5 pitchers a game, depending on how long he allows the starter to go.  That plan is in place 162 games a year.  No such thing as a complete game, that would mean facing the lineup a 4th time and we all know what his computers say about that.  And the way he juggles the lineup, both the batting order and the positions they play, no one can get a true feel for their place.  It is like we have 4 or 5 starters and 8 utility players.  It was easy to manage when the team hits 307 home runs; when that drops, not as easy, and we are seeing that now.  Let the starters be starters, not long relievers, and use your pen when it is needed for something other than to manage pitch counts.  And let your players get comfortable in a position they excel at instead of 3 or 4 they are adequate at.  And use the computer as an aide, not a manual.  Bring back baseball.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

Ober's been OK, but hasn't exactly blown anyone away. Seattle is the worst hitting team in baseball (I think they've been no-hit twice already this season). I think Ober's performance says more about Happ than it does about Ober, unfortunately.

Houston is the best hitting, and hardest to strikeout, team in the league and he struck out 7 over 5 against them. Certainly not anointing him the ace of the future, but his last 3 starts have been him doing what he should against bad hitting teams (8 innings, 1 earned, 10 Ks against KC and Sea) and looking quite good against a very good hitting Hou team (5 innings, 2 earned, 7 Ks). I wouldn't list that as blowing people away necessarily, but it is definitely noteworthy and should give a little hope for the future in this bleak mess of a season.

Hard to wrap our heads around, and get excited about, a guy who throws 90-93 and gets really good results. We're so used to guys having to throw 95+ to get those results. Based on his MiLB track record and early results I think we can allow ourselves to believe he has a more than reasonable chance of being a solid rotation piece in the future.

[umterp23]

63 pitches thru 4 pretty easy innings for Ober.  What's that get him?  Pat on the back, seat on the bench and no W in the personal win column.  Such BS by Baldelli.  My goodness  that he didn't send him out there for the 5th.  Even if he fell apart quickly, it's a learning opportunity for both sides. Pitcher can gain knowledge of strength and conditioning and Mr. spreadsheets can gauge his next time the order goes through the pitcher analysis.  12 guys faced.  WTF

[Dodecahedron]

56 minutes ago, bighat said:

Ober's been OK, but hasn't exactly blown anyone away. 

June 6, Royals:  4 K, 0 BB, 1 ER
June 11, Astros:  7 K, 1 BB, 2 ER
June 16, Mariners:  6 K, 0 BB, 0 ER

There probably are not many pitchers who pitched better than Ober over the past couple of weeks.  It's OK to celebrate what he has done so far and not worry about his future.  In any case, let's give him credit for being more than just OK.

[dbminn]

An annual IP limit is not a good justification to pull Ober after 12 TB in 4 innings. He faced 22 batters and went 5 innings in his previous start.

[HrbieFan]

21 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

63 pitches thru 4 pretty easy innings for Ober.  What's that get him?  Pat on the back, seat on the bench and no W in the personal win column.  Such BS by Baldelli.  My goodness  that he didn't send him out there for the 5th.  Even if he fell apart quickly, it's a learning opportunity for both sides. Pitcher can gain knowledge of strength and conditioning and Mr. spreadsheets can gauge his next time the order goes through the pitcher analysis.  12 guys faced.  WTF

100% agree! One thing to protect an arm from tossing 100+ pitches in 4 sloppy innings. This was 4 clean innings! Do they not trust him a third time through? He needs to learn because this year is lost. They let Happy stay out and toss batting practice for 6 innings, let the kid get the W

[umterp23]

Maybe rocco got confused in looking at his spreadsheets and the Little League setting on that said he can't go more than 70 pitches because he would need more than a couple days rest before advancing his team in the tournament.  

[Vanimal46]

It sure is nice watching a pitcher with command of his pitches. Night and day difference between Ober and Alcala, who has no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand. 

[Dodecahedron]

I'm OK with easing Ober into things.  

It's a fair point that he should have 3 wins already in his 4 starts instead of 0 wins.  I doubt he is losing sleep over that and we shouldn't be either.  One could take the opinion that this is allowing him to fly under the radar.  After all, even among us we are saying he hasn't been as good as he has been.

[KBJ1]

I totally agree with the "let the players play their position & batting order" sentiments.

Analytics has taken over the game and made it a computer generated Fantasy sports league.

For the Bullpen specialists, the one or two (max) platoon players (LH/RH batting) analytics can help. Everything else? Forget it!

Virtually EVERY World Series winning team wins because they are a TEAM first - a sum greater than its parts - and not a compilation of stats & WAR.

The Twins bullpen has been awful for years! They havent had a closer since Joe Nathan and that was what did them in the last two years when they were finally competitive.

The FO blew it this year by letting the bullpen they had go and picking up scraps at the deadline. 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's not about stretching him out, it's about keeping him on the mound as long as possible this season. Here are Ober's innings pitched since being drafted. I'm not sure it's possible for the Twins to be too cautious with the guy right now, given how little he has pitched in recent seasons (including zero game innings last year).

Year	Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	GS	IP
2017	21	0.3	Elizabethton	APPY	Rk	MIN	6	4	28.0
2018	22	0.1	Cedar Rapids	MIDW	A	MIN	14	14	75.0
2019	23		3 Teams	3 Lgs	A+-AA-Rk	MIN	14	13	78.2
2019	23	-1.3	Pensacola	SOUL	AA	MIN	4	4	24.0
2019	23	0.1	Fort Myers	FLOR	A+	MIN	8	8	45.2
2019	23	2.7	Twins	GULF	Rk	MIN	2	1	9.0
2021	25	-2.2	St. Paul	AAAE	AAA	MIN	4	4	16.0
2021	25	-3.8	MIN	AL	Maj	MIN	4	4	17.0

 

Thanks for reminding me about that.  Ober has been a really good pitcher throughout his minors career but I don't believe he has had an injury free season to date.  So probably best to take it slow and make sure to manage the arm and soreness he experiences.  To date he has been made of glass.  I agree they will only let him go so many innings this year since he has never topped 80 innings in a year yet.  So pitch count will likely rule the day this year for him.  I know he has complained in the past how his body feels after pitching so I would guess this all part of a strategy to see how far they dare push him without breaking him.

FWIW I was mad they didn't pitch him this spring but I guess the reason they didn't was to save the arm for the season.  I hope he continues to pitch well while out there.  his run free innings have been valuable.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's not about stretching him out, it's about keeping him on the mound as long as possible this season. Here are Ober's innings pitched since being drafted. I'm not sure it's possible for the Twins to be too cautious with the guy right now, given how little he has pitched in recent seasons (including zero game innings last year).

Year	Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	GS	IP
2017	21	0.3	Elizabethton	APPY	Rk	MIN	6	4	28.0
2018	22	0.1	Cedar Rapids	MIDW	A	MIN	14	14	75.0
2019	23		3 Teams	3 Lgs	A+-AA-Rk	MIN	14	13	78.2
2019	23	-1.3	Pensacola	SOUL	AA	MIN	4	4	24.0
2019	23	0.1	Fort Myers	FLOR	A+	MIN	8	8	45.2
2019	23	2.7	Twins	GULF	Rk	MIN	2	1	9.0
2021	25	-2.2	St. Paul	AAAE	AAA	MIN	4	4	16.0
2021	25	-3.8	MIN	AL	Maj	MIN	4	4	17.0

 

I understand, but I would say that with warmups before the game and at each inning the addition of an inning is less stress than another start.  If they want to have him skip a start I understand, but when your pitcher is doing well and you have a BP that could use a day off I want to use the pitcher.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I understand, but I would say that with warmups before the game and at each inning the addition of an inning is less stress than another start.  If they want to have him skip a start I understand, but when your pitcher is doing well and you have a BP that could use a day off I want to use the pitcher.  

The bullpen gets a day off today, that wasn’t really an issue either way.

I don’t think I would have pulled Ober yesterday but the move is definitely defensible.

It’s a lost season in mid-June. The Twins will want Ober to get as many starts as possible in his rookie year before they’re forced to pull the plug on his 2021 season.

It’d be nice to see the kid get his first win but in the grand scheme of things, an Ober win yesterday doesn’t matter in the slightest bit. It’s entirely reasonable for the organization to care more about whether he gets a couple more starts in august than whether he goes 5+ innings a few times in June. 

[prouster]

First off, I'm glad the Twins won. I'm on the east coast and fell asleep well before it was over, but it was nice to see a lot of quality performances on both sides of the ball.

Regarding Ober, I understand Baldelli's reasons for pulling him. However, I'd like to push back on the idea that it "doesn't matter" whether he got credit for the win last night or not. In the grand scheme of things, sure, of course it doesn't matter. (FWIW, we could also say that it ultimately "doesn't matter" if he threw one more inning.) But I think it probably matters to Ober, which is not something that I think can be dismissed out of hand. He has worked hard and pitched well, and he deserves the official record to reflect that. Just my two cents.

[Major League Ready]

Anyone consider the possibility Baldelli was doing the opposite of spreadsheet management.  Perhaps having been a player he understands the role confidence plays in developing players.  Ober performed really well and pulling him when he did was a good way of assuring he gain some confidence from this outing.  Was he managing by spreadsheet.  I don't know but I know what happens when I assume.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

Obviously the experiences of Fernando Romero or Jose Berrios will caution anyone that a pitcher's first handful of starts are not their destiny, in either direction.

That said, Ober does things that seems sustainable, chief among them throwing strikes with multiple pitches. His performance so far has been a similar to his performance in the minors, with the main difference being an increase in speed, which he's maintained so far. With his advanced release point, 92-93 is going to look like 95-96 to hitters, and he's show the ability to consistently throw it at the top of the zone. I wouldn't necessarily chalk him down as a future ace, but there's no reason why he can't be a 3-5 starter for the Twins for a while.

I have no problem with Rocco taking him out after the fourth. Getting the bullpen some low-leverage work before an off day makes sense. Keeping Ober's pitch count down also makes sense. He's never even come close to a major league starter's workload and there's no sense in pushing him in this lost season. Let him build up his confidence and build up his stamina.

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

With his advanced release point, 92-93 is going to look like 95-96 to hitters, and he's show the ability to consistently throw it at the top of the zone. I wouldn't necessarily chalk him down as a future ace, but there's no reason why he can't be a 3-5 starter for the Twins for a while.

 

I think we can reasonably approximate the advantage of height if we can determine how much closer his release point is to plate.  That's the difference, right?  His height in effect brings the mound closer to the plate.  If the average players stride and length provide a release point 57 feet from the plate and he releases 56 feet from the plate the travel time is 98.2% which takes a 92 mph pitch to approximately 94 mph.  So, you are very close.  Is there also a form of deception or difficulty picking up the pitch given his length?  The advantage might be even greater.  Your 95-96 seems very reasonable. 

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Anyone consider the possibility Baldelli was doing the opposite of spreadsheet management.  Perhaps having been a player he understands the role confidence plays in developing players.  Ober performed really well and pulling him when he did was a good way of assuring he gain some confidence from this outing.  Was he managing by spreadsheet.  I don't know but I know what happens when I assume.

I think it's a combination of spreadsheet and wanting him to build confidence. I think getting him his first ML "W" would have been a nice confidence boost, though. 1 more inning, after the team just extended the lead to 7, felt like a good way to let him get the pride of that first "W" (even though I think pitcher W's are a useless stat, it's still nice to get). Think it set itself up nicely to get him that boost, get 4 relievers an inning of work, and not have him throw a crazy number of pitches on the night.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The bullpen gets a day off today, that wasn’t really an issue either way.

I don’t think I would have pulled Ober yesterday but the move is definitely defensible.

It’s a lost season in mid-June. The Twins will want Ober to get as many starts as possible in his rookie year before they’re forced to pull the plug on his 2021 season.

It’d be nice to see the kid get his first win but in the grand scheme of things, an Ober win yesterday doesn’t matter in the slightest bit. It’s entirely reasonable for the organization to care more about whether he gets a couple more starts in august than whether he goes 5+ innings a few times in June. 

Thanks for the continued discussion.  I cannot argue with your logic.  I came from an era when wins count and I also liked seeing my SP instead of my RP.  We are now 68 games into the season - Hansel Robles has been in 30 games, Acala 28, Duffey 27, Rogers and Colome 26.  40% of the games played -  At this pace Robles is in 77 games, Acala 66, Duffey 66, Rogers and Colome 61 each.  Are those numbers sustainable?  I will say it again, it is the number of games, warm ups, not innings that really matter.  Of course RP are trained to go just one inning so that is what we expect until they change expectations.  SP are supposed to go 5 - 7 (it used to be 9 innings).  There is a reason why RP are hard to project year to year.  We know that Rogers has a real issue with two days in a row.  With Happ and Shoemaker around the RP demand is even greater so a good start should reduce the RP use the way that Berrios has done.  But so far in the Rocco regime Berrios seems to be the only one allowed to go deep in a game.  Sorry to rant, but I think baseball has to come up with another strategy for pitching and I do not mean sticky substances. 

If we want Ober to have less starts bring up another rookie - Duran? and go with a six pitcher rotation.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I think we can reasonably approximate the advantage of height if we can determine how much closer his release point is to plate.  That's the difference, right?  His height in effect brings the mound closer to the plate.  If the average players stride and length provide a release point 57 feet from the plate and he releases 56 feet from the plate the travel time is 98.2% which takes a 92 mph pitch to approximately 94 mph.  So, you are very close.  Is there also a form of deception or difficulty picking up the pitch given his length?  The advantage might be even greater.  Your 95-96 seems very reasonable. 

According to Gleeman in his Athletic article today, Ober has the second longest average extension in the bigs at 7'2" (Tyler Glasnow #1 at 7'3"). Gleeman says 7'2" is "nearly a foot more than the MLB norm" for what it's worth.