4 Possible Teams Interested in a Byron Buxton Trade

[Twodogs]

Explain to me again how these new GM's are so much better than the old one? Happ, Shoemaker, horsecrap bullpen on a bunch of flyers Baldelli vs Molitor how are these guys so much smarter than the last one?  Now talking about trading Buxton and Berrios?  Looks like a lot of history repeating itself.

[Major League Ready]

I agree with Dman.  There are some players that want to stay with their team even if they don’t get every penny that the free agency process generally yields.  A much greater percentage of players can’t wait for free agency and there is no way they are foregoing that process.  The whole pay them whatever it takes mantra is patently naïve.  Just as assuming we can win a bidding war with teams that have 40, 50 or 100 percent greater revenue.  Mid/small market team have to get return for players they can’t resign.  We can hate ownership and the front office if it makes us feel better but denying the reality that we simply have considerably less financial resource is not a thoughtful or even logical response.

We should look around the league.  The Angel and Phillies who have significantly greater financial resource signed huge names and failed.  They traded away assets for “known quantities”.  How have they done?  The Dodgers went through a period where they spent huge and traded for vets.  Thar was not a complete bust but they were not serious contenders.  The Whitesox traded away key (core) players and rebuilt a winner.  Tampa and Oakland trade away established players for players that have not made their mark yet and they have consistently been top teams despite their limitations in free agency.  Cleveland has also been inclined to trade away established players. 

Even Boston traded Betts while they could still get something.  Verdugo is now an important part of their team.  The even better recent example is Chicago.  Moncada has the highest war among position players for the Whitesox.   Cease and Jiminez were acquired by trade as was Giolito.  The successes associated with restocking with controllable talent are everywhere. 

The most likely way for this team to get into serious contention is developing SPs that are low cost and will be here for several years.  That's not going to happen by the start of 22.  We can go "all-in" for 22 by trading for more talent and ride it out with Buxton and Berrios.  The odds of success are quite low IMO and that strategy leaves you in significantly worse shape after 2022. If we can get a substantial return that impacts 2023 and several years after we are likely to be significantly better for several years.  Basically investing one year for a significantly better team over the next several years is a preferable strategy for me. 

[In My La Z boy]

23 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Any self-respecting team does NOT trade Byron Buxton. He is worth more as a part time player than most full time players, and all players on this year's Twins. I'm sorry if you don't see it, but he is the straw that stirs the drink. When he is in the lineup he impacts a team more than any player in baseball outside of the juniors (Guerrero and Tatis), Trout, Acuna and Soto. Sign him to a contract and have a plan for when he is unable to play.

Totally agree in "theory" with this sentiment - unfortunately, practically applying this principle may be impossible.

Examples above in Major League Ready's post. I'd put Buxton right there with the Betts example. Likely this won't play out until over the winter is my guess, unless someone steps up and blows our mind with an offer in July. I would think Falvey waits it out. This would be a franchise make or break type of trade. I'd move heaven and earth to attempt a re-sign. This is a trade that costs the FO his job in 2 years if he blows it. 

[dbminn]

Pretty much hit the teams that could use Buxton. I'd add Philadelphia and SF. The problem is, most of the teams don't have prospects worth getting back. The Red Sox are the only team that could dangle interesting prospects. If they want to trade Duran or Downs, I'd be tempted.

IMO, Berrios is the "must sign". I'd trade Buxton, but a high-upside prospect, either a SP, SS or CF, has to come back in return. There's no hurry to trade him if the return isn't decent. There will be plenty of time to field offers in the offseason if they can't extend him. 

[Trov]

Based on way he is playing I think just about any team would have interest in him, not just those four.  The real question is what are the teams willing to give up in return and does it meet what the Twins want.  I mean if the teams are only willing to give offensive first corner OF prospects I would say no to any team giving up that, because we have plenty of those. If we have a top SS or third base and pitching prospects with possible future defensive replacement in CF, then I would be in on that situation. 

In stead of telling us who would want him, which should be every team, tells us what you think teams have to give us.  

[Rosterman]

Let's go really big and package Buxton AND Berrios as a trade package. Now that is something that could bring a major return. 

 

When dealing mid-season, will the player get the other team where they wish to go.

 

Trade value for a Buxton or Berrios also hinges on the need/ability for the trading team to resign them to a longer contract, or taking a gamble that their current season might increase the trade value of the player going into the free agent season. Otherwise, you are just getting a rental.

Sadly, if it is all about money, you better start signing the next crop of players early to get those extra years under the team's belt, or you will be known as a team that can't afford to play in the big leagues.

 

Dollar store dumpster diving for diamonds that might look impressive for a moment or two is not the direction you want to take a team, u nless you are constantly banging out top prospects.

[Dodecahedron]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I can't believe all this love for Byron Buxton.  Look at his career stats.  He is hitting 247.  He's only had one year with more than 100 hits.  He has less than 1500 at bats in 7 seasons.  He had a great April this year at .370.  the fact remains he is a great defensive player but an average player at best.  He is hurt way too often to invest long term with him.  Get him back on the field then trade him.

The team W-L record when he is on the field is a tale of two cities.  He leads the team in WAR even in his partial seasons.

Buxton is probably smart enough to know that the difference between being the Twins MVP and being a WS MVP are two very different things that are not going to align any time soon.  Still, I believe he can be convinced to stay in MN if they treat him right and the price is right.  

[Dodecahedron]

1 minute ago, Rosterman said:

Let's go really big and package Buxton AND Berrios as a trade package. Now that is something that could bring a major return. 

Not to mention a major rebuild and a major amount of losing seasons for the Twins.  Sounds kinda lame to me overall.  There was a previous GM who we all know and love who did not know how to build a pipeline of players without doing this, I'm hoping the current group has other ideas.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree with Dman.  There are some players that want to stay with their team even if they don’t get every penny that the free .......................................us contention is developing SPs that are low cost and will be here for several years.  That's not going to happen by the start of 22.  We can go "all-in" for 22 by trading for more talent and ride it out with Buxton and Berrios.  The odds of success are quite low IMO and that strategy leaves you in significantly worse shape after 2022. If we can get a substantial return that impacts 2023 and several years after we are likely to be significantly better for several years.  Basically investing one year for a significantly better team over the next several years is a preferable strategy for me. 

While I generally agree with your conclusions, I want to point out something about your posts like this.....

You always point to the teams that spent big and failed, never the teams that spent and succeeded.
You always point to the teams that traded off their best players and succeeded, and never the ones that failed (Pittsburgh being a good example).

I'd like your analysis a lot more if it didn't seem so cherry picked, and, imo, unwilling to acknowledge that what really matters is being right about who you acquire, and a team's ability to develop them. This is the failure of the last GM, and while it is too early to be sure about this FO.....there are very few wins to show for their time here (in terms of long term assets developed). 

Your plan to re-tool for 2023 relies very heavily on 2-3 of the guys in the minors right now turning out to be good to very good starting pitchers. So far, they've developed zero. I'm not confident.

[singlesoverwalks]

Atlanta needs outfielders aside from Acuña, and Byron is from Georgia (I say this while crying with a determined expression on my face).

[singlesoverwalks]

I would add that trading a marquee player doesn't necessarily doom you to losing seasons. Last year, Cleveland gave up Trevor Bauer in a three-team trade and managed to get a very good, young, controllable bat in Franmil Reyes plus other prospects. If you are good at your job--and I'm not saying our GMs are after this season--but if you are good you can avoid the full rebuild.

[howeda7]

3 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

I agree with a lot of this. I think he's a tremendous talent, but if he can't stay on the field then what's the point?  If they can trade him for some good, controllable, young pitching, that would be of much greater help to the Twins in the short and long run. The question is will teams trade good young pitching for Buxton?  His injury history is common knowledge.

The Twins need to stop acting like they're the Rays/A's and remember that they should be the Cardinals.

There's only a 50/50 chance the "good young pitching" will turn out. And then there's a better chance it will be Scott Baker good and not Johan Santana good.  That's why I'm willing to over-pay to keep both Berrios and Buxton.

The Twins can afford a payroll of $130-140 million as they had in 2020. If they can get the Braves to take Donaldson off their hands and give Sano away, they will have an initial 2022 payroll of ~$65-70 million. That gives them $60-70 million to spend on bumping up Buxton/Berrios via their extensions and adding 1-2 starters and 1-2 relievers. There's really no reason they can't contend in 2022 if they add some pitching. And there's a decent FA crop this year.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

There's only a 50/50 chance the "good young pitching" will turn out. And then there's a better chance it will be Scott Baker good and not Johan Santana good.  That's why I'm willing to over-pay to keep both Berrios and Buxton.

 

If they can get the Braves to take Donaldson off their hands and give Sano away, they will have an initial 2022 payroll of ~$65-70 million. That gives them $60-70 million to spend on bumping up Buxton/Berrios via their extensions and adding 1-2 starters and 1-2 relievers. There's really no reason they can't contend in 2022 if they add some pitching. And there's a decent FA crop this year.

Who is taking Donaldson at all, let alone his full salary? They need at least 2 good starters on top of Berrios next year. Then they need 1 that is ok. Right now, who is that that is signed?

[Vanimal46]

48 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

While I generally agree with your conclusions, I want to point out something about your posts like this.....

You always point to the teams that spent big and failed, never the teams that spent and succeeded.
You always point to the teams that traded off their best players and succeeded, and never the ones that failed (Pittsburgh being a good example).

I'd like your analysis a lot more if it didn't seem so cherry picked, and, imo, unwilling to acknowledge that what really matters is being right about who you acquire, and a team's ability to develop them. This is the failure of the last GM, and while it is too early to be sure about this FO.....there are very few wins to show for their time here (in terms of long term assets developed). 

Your plan to re-tool for 2023 relies very heavily on 2-3 of the guys in the minors right now turning out to be good to very good starting pitchers. So far, they've developed zero. I'm not confident.

Thank you for pointing out the other side of the coin for both scenarios. I think every team in baseball now has an analytics-driven FO. So the tanking route that Houston and Chicago successfully made is more difficult to pull off. 
 

There’s a scenario where the Twins trade players like Buxton and Berrios and end up being a perpetual losing team. Baltimore is still a god awful team 4 years later after trading Machado and any veteran that was decent. Pittsburgh is still many years away from contending. The Marlins got lucky in a shortened season to make the playoffs, and other than that, have been bottom feeders since trading Yelich and many others. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Vanimal46 said:

Thank you for pointing out the other side of the coin for both scenarios. I think every team in baseball now has an analytics-driven FO. So the tanking route that Houston and Chicago successfully made is more difficult to pull off. 
 

There’s a scenario where the Twins trade players like Buxton and Berrios and end up being a perpetual losing team. Baltimore is still a god awful team 4 years later after trading Machado and any veteran that was decent. Pittsburgh is still many years away from contending. The Marlins got lucky in a shortened season to make the playoffs, and other than that, have been bottom feeders since trading Yelich and many others. 

Every team but Colorado.....

There is a way to trade those two, and for 2023+ to be great. It requires them to be very right about who they get back, and very good at developing them. It also requires them to spend the savings the right way and to be willing to fill in the gaps with good players. And to have a farm system ready to plug holes (hitting, pitching, and defense). 

Boston did trade Betts, but they still have a massive payroll........

[howeda7]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who is taking Donaldson at all, let alone his full salary? They need at least 2 good starters on top of Berrios next year. Then they need 1 that is ok. Right now, who is that that is signed?

Supposedly the Braves have interest in getting Donaldson back.

They would to spend some serious $ in FA, but they have that available. Among the pitchers who are FA's this off-season:

1. Trevor Bauer (31) – can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM
2. Zach Davies (29)
3. Danny Duffy (33)
4. Jon Gray (30)
5. Zack Greinke (38)
6. Clayton Kershaw (34)
7. Corey Kluber (36)
8. Lance Lynn (35)
9. Carlos Martinez (30) — $17MM club optio
10. Steven Matz (31)
11. Robbie Ray (30)
12. Max Scherzer (37)
13. Marcus Stroman (30)
14. Noah Syndergaard (29)
15. Justin Verlander (39)
16. Alex Wood (31)

[Taildragger8791]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

There’s a scenario where the Twins trade players like Buxton and Berrios and end up being a perpetual losing team. Baltimore is still a god awful team 4 years later after trading Machado and any veteran that was decent. Pittsburgh is still many years away from contending. The Marlins got lucky in a shortened season to make the playoffs, and other than that, have been bottom feeders since trading Yelich and many others. 

If the Twins are long-term losers after trading Buxton & Berriors, they almost certainly aren't going to be competitive with them anyways. The current prospect crop is pretty shallow and the pipeline is drying up below AA ball. They need almost all of their top prospects to pan out and form a new core because there's isn't another wave coming for at least 4-5 years.

[Vanimal46]

12 minutes ago, Taildragger8791 said:

If the Twins are long-term losers after trading Buxton & Berriors, they almost certainly aren't going to be competitive with them anyways. The current prospect crop is pretty shallow and the pipeline is drying up below AA ball. They need almost all of their top prospects to pan out and form a new core because there's isn't another wave coming for at least 4-5 years.

The next wave is already here IMO. Larnach and Kirilloff look like keepers. Arraez and Jeffers under pre-arb rates, Polanco and Kepler signed beyond 2023 at reasonable rates, Garver at arb-1 status next year. The offense is  pretty young, and who knows, maybe Miranda and Lewis find their way up to MLB as reinforcements. I think this winter they’ll need to decide between Polanco and Arraez to man 2B full time and flip the other. 
 

The big challenge obviously is the pitching staff. I have no answer for that unit. 

[lukeduke1980]

Is Buxton really unhappy or do he and his agent need a little leverage against being hurt yet again.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 hours ago, howeda7 said:

This offseason, offer both Buxton and Berrios 5/$110 million. If either/both take it, great. If not, trade them. 

I think that loses too much value in trade. If the Twins want to make an offer, do it now or trade them. Teams are likely willing to pay a lot more for that half a season while in contention and to fill an immediate need. In the offseason, teams can sign or trade for anyone on the market and the supply is more limited at the trade deadline.

[TheLeviathan]

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

You don't have to worry about seeing him very often unless you run the rehab unit.

I came to the comments to make this joke.  Hat tip good sir.

[Taildragger8791]

8 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The next wave is already here IMO. Larnach and Kirilloff look like keepers. Arraez and Jeffers under pre-arb rates, Polanco and Kepler signed beyond 2023 at reasonable rates, Garver at arb-1 status next year. The offense is  pretty young, and who knows, maybe Miranda and Lewis find their way up to MLB as reinforcements. I think this winter they’ll need to decide between Polanco and Arraez to man 2B full time and flip the other. 
 

The big challenge obviously is the pitching staff. I have no answer for that unit. 

That's what I'm talking about. Those guys you mentioned plus Lewis & Miranda are about the only promising bats I see in the system, and none of them are a sure bet to play premium defense (TBD on Lewis or Miranda). There's nothing of note below those guys all the way to A ball. On the pitching side there are a few names to be excited about but pitching is such a crapshoot to pan out. I hesitate to count those chickens before they hatch. And again, after those top names there isn't a lot in the system. They need a couple good rounds of drafts and IFA to restock the system or it'll be another prospect deserve like we had a decade ago.

[Grasslander]

I'd love to see Mr. Buxton remain a Twin. In the history of the Twins there has been no player, in my estimation, more fun to watch. But how can his health issues be resolved?  Sometimes a change in scenery helps. Because Buxton is from Georgia, why not Atlanta? They could use a center fielder. Well, any team in baseball could use a player of Buxton's caliber.  But going home might be what it takes for him to get and stay healthy.   

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Taildragger8791 said:

That's what I'm talking about. Those guys you mentioned plus Lewis & Miranda are about the only promising bats I see in the system, and none of them are a sure bet to play premium defense (TBD on Lewis or Miranda). There's nothing of note below those guys all the way to A ball. On the pitching side there are a few names to be excited about but pitching is such a crapshoot to pan out. I hesitate to count those chickens before they hatch. And again, after those top names there isn't a lot in the system. They need a couple good rounds of drafts and IFA to restock the system or it'll be another prospect deserve like we had a decade ago.

Yeah I tend to agree with you.  If you squint hard you can see Steer and Julien as very good to star players but they are not top 100 players like Lewis, Kirilloff and Larnach were.  Am hoping Urbina turns things around and Cavaco has the potential to be a star player if the bat comes around but it is pretty slim pickings right now IMO. You can see how depleted the system is just by the guys they are bringing in off the street to start.  There are more guys I have never heard of than ever before and they all were like 30th round picks from other teams and non of them seem to be performing well either.  They are just there to fill in as best I can tell.

Like you said several promising pitchers but we have seen plenty of our guys perform well all the way up to AAA and never make a real difference at the MLB level.  Pitching is just brutaly hard to project.

Right now that 2020 draft is killing them.  Sabato looks like a really bad pick so far and Soularie hasn't even played. The two teenagers a looong ways a way.  So they have nothing to show for 2020 so far.  The COVID year really did a number on our player development and FO decision making.  I believe you are correct they need to have a really good draft in 2021 and they have a supplemental 1st to help make a difference.

 

[Platoon]

3 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Any self-respecting team does NOT trade Byron Buxton. He is worth more as a part time player than most full time players, and all players on this year's Twins. I'm sorry if you don't see it, but he is the straw that stirs the drink. When he is in the lineup he impacts a team more than any player in baseball outside of the juniors (Guerrero and Tatis), Trout, Acuna and Soto. Sign him to a contract and have a plan for when he is unable to play.

I agree with this, but as usual there is a but! Yes try and sign him if you can, but if it’s apparent you cannot, then move him this year for the best deal offered. Reusse likely has sources we don’t. And if he doesn’t want to play here money won’t do it, he can get that anywhere. I agree, he is one of the best players in the league when healthy. But those days are so few and far between. That does mitigate his overall value, to both us, and others. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Any self-respecting team does NOT trade Byron Buxton. He is worth more as a part time player than most full time players, and all players on this year's Twins. I'm sorry if you don't see it, but he is the straw that stirs the drink. When he is in the lineup he impacts a team more than any player in baseball outside of the juniors (Guerrero and Tatis), Trout, Acuna and Soto. Sign him to a contract and have a plan for when he is unable to play.

Tampa would trade him. 100%. 

[roger]

23 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Tampa would trade him. 100%. 

And their success is a head scratcher, at least for me.  Their payroll is what, a bit over half what we have and a fraction of the big guys.  Yet, look at the AL East, Tampa vs. the big spenders.  Don't know how they do it?  Sure hope like heck our FO would be trying to figure it out and duplicate.

[Wilco1]

Love the idea that pat reusse is able to determine bucks feelings. He’s one of  player on this team with a positive future. Trading him would be the last straw for me with regard to supporting the twins.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

While I generally agree with your conclusions, I want to point out something about your posts like this.....

You always point to the teams that spent big and failed, never the teams that spent and succeeded.
You always point to the teams that traded off their best players and succeeded, and never the ones that failed (Pittsburgh being a good example).

I'd like your analysis a lot more if it didn't seem so cherry picked, and, imo, unwilling to acknowledge that what really matters is being right about who you acquire, and a team's ability to develop them. This is the failure of the last GM, and while it is too early to be sure about this FO.....there are very few wins to show for their time here (in terms of long term assets developed). 

Your plan to re-tool for 2023 relies very heavily on 2-3 of the guys in the minors right now turning out to be good to very good starting pitchers. So far, they've developed zero. I'm not confident.

As you know from some of the analysis I put up on things like elite FA starting pitchers, I use the entire data set or as complete as reasonably feasible when it is of value.  In this case, it goes without saying that not every team that trades away established players goes on to contend.  The intent is to illustrate that it can or often works.  I know you think you are pointing out bias.  I just don’t agree that it is necessary to prove it doesn’t always work.  Obviously, there are many variables.  Also, keep in mind I was responding to people who basically suggested it was incompetent to trade proven players.  Most of us listen to nation baseball programs where the need to trade players that teams can’t likely retain is a common discussion.  I am happy to concede that this tactic or any other does not universally succeed.  Perhaps I should have prefaced my position with something like “while it’s not a guarantee of Success”.  I just don’t think it is necessary to provide this disclaimer.  It’s obvious and is it really necessary to say this does not work every time.

I will agree to a degree that my assertion for “2023 relies very heavily on 2-3 of the guys in the minors right now turning out to be good to very good starting pitchers.”  It is not dependent on 2-3 guys being really good.  We need 1 guy to be really good and 1 or 2 to be good.  As I have stated in the past, 2 or 3 prearb guys in the rotation provides the payroll flexibility to add a very good FA starting pitcher.  I was merely pointing out that with the depth and quality of prospects we could build a mostly homegrown rotation.  My advocation of trading Berrios and/or Buxton has always stipulated we get impact players back.  You are not acknowledging the very premise of getting impact players back when you limit the 2023+ team to players currently in the system.  The entire premise of trading Berrios/Buxton is the acquisition of impact players.

None of these things are a given.  Of course, things have to work out.  Do we really need to discuss it’s necessary for any roster plan to pan out if we are to build a contender.  The debate should be the best way to build a contender.  In 2022, that would be keeping Berrios/Buxton.  Beyond 2022 the best way is most likely trading them.  I have been a critic of the team’s track record in developing pitching.  That does not mean we should pursue less viable strategies because the team has failed to develop SPs in the past? Sorry, but not following the best strategies because we have failed with those strategies in the past is nonsensical to me.  Should we pursue inferior practices or get better at best practices.  That’s not the plan I would put in place but you are welcome to your opinion.
 

[Major League Ready]

36 minutes ago, roger said:

And their success is a head scratcher, at least for me.  Their payroll is what, a bit over half what we have and a fraction of the big guys.  Yet, look at the AL East, Tampa vs. the big spenders.  Don't know how they do it?  Sure hope like heck our FO would be trying to figure it out and duplicate.

I have put up their roster and how the players were acquired a couple different times.  They have been great at trading established players for players with minimal MLB experience that have assimilated quite well to the MLB level after being with Tampa.   They have also done a great job of what is often referred to as "dumpster diving" here.  They have also drafted pretty well.

BTW ... I did this for all of the small/mid market teams that made the playoffs.  I just assumed people who don't want to accept it simply ignore this type of information because the facts are clear.  It's also not that hard to go back and check how teams constructed rosters in successful years.