Article: Position Analyis: First Base

[Cris E]

The money is irrelevant in the next couple seasons. They've got most of the guys they want for the coming four or five years and they won't cost anything. Staggering the arb, as discussed above, makes very good sense because it's so easy to do and simplifies life down the road. Guys that are progressing nicely in Roch or NB can stay there, guys that have nothing at all to prove can come up, and anyone not ready can stay out of the discussion. There really isn't much to play for this year and probably even next, so Ryan will use the calendar.

 

Morneau gets an offer from MN if he's here, period. If he's playing well it'll be a two or three year deal, and if he isn't it'll be a qualifying offer. But the real decision point is earlier: if he's playing average or below by July they'll dump him at the deadline just to free the roster spot for another kid (and avoid the discussion in the off-season.)

 

One other thing: upstream discussions about his age make zero sense for a 32 year old first baseman. If you want to discuss risk talk about his concussions, but 32 is still prime for most positions these days, and doubly so at the corners.

[Mr. Brooks]

The money is irrelevant in the next couple seasons. They've got most of the guys they want for the coming four or five years and they won't cost anything. Staggering the arb, as discussed above, makes very good sense because it's so easy to do and simplifies life down the road. Guys that are progressing nicely in Roch or NB can stay there, guys that have nothing at all to prove can come up, and anyone not ready can stay out of the discussion. There really isn't much to play for this year and probably even next, so Ryan will use the calendar.

 

Morneau gets an offer from MN if he's here, period. If he's playing well it'll be a two or three year deal, and if he isn't it'll be a qualifying offer. But the real decision point is earlier: if he's playing average or below by July they'll dump him at the deadline just to free the roster spot for another kid (and avoid the discussion in the off-season.)

 

One other thing: upstream discussions about his age make zero sense for a 32 year old first baseman. If you want to discuss risk talk about his concussions, but 32 is still prime for most positions these days, and doubly so at the corners.

 

Why would they offer him $14 million dollars if he's not playing well?

Out of all the possible scenarios discussed in this thread I think that one would probably be the worst.

[Mike Sixel]

One article on prime ages refutes your belief of 32:

Baseball Prospectus | How Do Baseball Players Age?

[Shane Wahl]

I'm not a big fan of picking out 2 months of a full season. Every player in baseball has months where they hit well above their final OPS, as well as months they hit well below it.

There is a reason that baseball uses such a long season, its a "fluky" enough game that it takes a large sample size to even out.

If it were a consistent trend where it gradually improved each month from April through September, then I could consider that he was shaking off the rust, but it wasnt.

He was terrible in April, then hit the cover off the ball in May, then terrible again in June, then pretty good in July and August, then terrible again in Sept., or basically the same type of monthly splits that I would predict you'd find from any other league average first baseman last year.

 

That said, I do think he's going to have a better year this year. I think confidence goes a long way in baseball, and I'm sure he's more confident than he was this time of year. But, its based on gut feeling and not something I think you can cherry pick random splits from last year to predict.

 

But this isn't a normal player. This was someone who on opening day was doubting if he was capable of playing with his injuries. The entire offseason last year was cloudy for him. Pre-injury he was having a ridiculous 2010. He showed signs of a return while still dealing with injuries in the second half of the season (including, most importantly, September). I am not sure what is really to dispute here.

[Mr. Brooks]

But this isn't a normal player. This was someone who on opening day was doubting if he was capable of playing with his injuries. The entire offseason last year was cloudy for him. Pre-injury he was having a ridiculous 2010. He showed signs of a return while still dealing with injuries in the second half of the season (including, most importantly, September). I am not sure what is really to dispute here.

 

The statement, "Justin Morneau is back to being a dominant hitter" is not something that can be disputed?

Well I guess that settles that.

 

BTW: Morneau was terrible in September, he could not have been worse.

[Shane Wahl]

The statement, "Justin Morneau is back to being a dominant hitter" is not something that can be disputed?

Well I guess that settles that.

 

BTW: Morneau was terrible in September, he could not have been worse.

 

First, AGAIN, I already said that I omitted an "if" right before that . But second, what isn't to be disputed is that you cannot make some general claim about ballplayers having hot streaks when this particular circumstance involves a series of injuries and in particular a bizarre one relating to concussions. The farther removed from that, the better the outcome. I believe he was injured again in September. Maybe I am wrong about that (you know, "day-to-day" nonsense from the Twins).

[Shane Wahl]

For the record, I expect a minimum of .850 OPS from him this year if he remains healthy.

[Mr. Brooks]

First, AGAIN, I already said that I omitted an "if" right before that . But second, what isn't to be disputed is that you cannot make some general claim about ballplayers having hot streaks when this particular circumstance involves a series of injuries and in particular a bizarre one relating to concussions. The farther removed from that, the better the outcome. I believe he was injured again in September. Maybe I am wrong about that (you know, "day-to-day" nonsense from the Twins).

 

Just like I cant say for certain that its just randomness over a long season, you also cant say for sure that its absolutely a trend that shows he was improving and will therefore continue.

Either one would be absurd. Thats kinda what I was getting at originally.

[Mr. Brooks]

One reason I tend to believe it was just randomness and not some trend, is that his babip was 40 points above his career norm over those 2 months. It was not his slugging that improved in those 2 months, it was his AVG and OBP. If you regress his babip to his career norm then those 2 months suddenly look just like the rest.

[Mr. Brooks]

For the record, I expect a minimum of .850 OPS from him this year if he remains healthy.

 

I suppose if you are going to go on record I will too.

I'm seeing an OPS in the .795 to .810 range this year from Justin.

[Cris E]

If 32 isn't prime, it's within a year. (And it's improving. This article has a nice graph of how much better players are aging these days: Baseball Prospectus | Resident Fantasy Genius: The Age-27 Breakout Fallacy )

 

My larger point was that as a guy turning 32, he's not at the edge of a cliff. The folks talking about him like he's Olde And Finishede are off-base. The significant drift starts at 33-34, but as a 1b Morneau draws little value from his defense so he'll be useful as long as he hits. If he can prove in 2013 that he can still hit then he'll probably be able to at 33 as well...

 

...barring injury.

 

And that recalls my other point: if you're going to discount his value it has to be based on his injuries, and specifically his head. There are dozens of guys over 32 years old who are easily justifying their $13m+ contracts. If you don't believe in him that's perfectly understandable, but for a 2-3 year deal age is not a factor.

[Shane Wahl]

I like Shane's analysis of this, but wonder if Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee would fetch a decent SS, 3B and SP. I also worry about trading these three players and taking the risk that Morneau gets injured again.

 

I am hoping that Morneau gets back to his MVP form. If the Twins are sellers at the trade deadline, I would think that a healthy Morneau might fetch a lot better prospect(s) than the other three combined. And if the Twins are anywhere near contending at the trade deadline, it seems to me that Morneau (and Willingham) should be virtually untouchable -- these are proven players who (along with Mauer) could carry the Twins to the wild card or better.

 

I am messing up all over this thread. I didn't mean that the three of them would bring back three legit prospects. By some combo I basically meant that the three might bring back two such prospects. I don't see Morneau alone bringing back more than one. Maybe that one has a higher ceiling than any one player to be had for the other three, true. At the deadline, though, both Willingham and Doumit are likely to be quite appealing for playoff teams looking to fill out their rosters with viable hitters (think Texas, NY, Boston, LAA, Atlanta, and maybe St. Louis here). It could even mean a teams "fifth starter" like Worley.

[Mr. Brooks]

Best case scenario for me is Morneau gets off to a great start, Mark Texeira and AROD both have setbacks, and the Yankees call offering Angelo Gumbs and Mark Montgomery.

[Monkeypaws]

I stick my neck out there and say the former MVP is back in the fold.

 

Sounds like he'd like to stay here too.

 

The Twins should make him a lifer.

[twinsnorth49]

I'd say the risk is that you pay him $13 million and then he gets another concussion and gives you zero production.

I'd move him for any halfway decent prospect they can at the deadline.

 

 

Another concussion expert, where do they all come from?

[twinsnorth49]

Where is the convincing arguement that Morneau can't revert to his old form, or close to it? Don't tell me it's because of this alleged fog in his head?

 

Based on the guy's career track record and age, betting against him being an elite hitter again is fools gold. I'm with Shane, he OPS's north of .850, book it.

[Mr. Brooks]

Another concussion expert, where do they all come from?

 

How am I claiming to be some sort of "concussion expert"?

[Mr. Brooks]

Where is the convincing arguement that Morneau can't revert to his old form, or close to it? Don't tell me it's because of this alleged fog in his head?

 

Based on the guy's career track record and age, betting against him being an elite hitter again is fools gold. I'm with Shane, he OPS's north of .850, book it.

 

I'm certainly not claiming he can't. Of course he can.

I'm just saying its too soon to claim with absolute certainty that he already has. I think we need to see it first.

[jokin]

First, I omitted an "if" in there, so that's my bad.

 

Second, are you two not aware of his numbers in July and August of last year? His OPS was .850 and he was finally starting to hit lefties even minimally at that time. He has had a "regular" offseason again, etc. etc.

 

So stop.

 

You refute one small sample size argument used against your point by citing yet another? I know that doesn't work in your college classes, professor. Or if it does, no wonder you try to cease the debate by yelling "stop".

[jokin]

To make clear, I'm not a Morneau hater. If he comes back to his old form, nothing would please me more. The reality is, the direction the team is headed towards is getting a lot younger with legit, minimum-wage, cost-controlled prospects champing at the bit at Morneau's 2 potential positions. The evidence is overwhelming that this is coupled with a return to an overall lean, mean payroll- ie, Smith was out when he actually thought ownership meant it about an open checkbook- Ryan was brought back to shed salary, find cheaper, reliable replacements in the process and keep a positive cash flow until the next up-cycle. It's highly unlikely, no matter how well Justin performs, that Morneau is considered to be part of the pending up-cycle, unless he willingly takes Ryan's lowball offer.

[Shane Wahl]

You refute one small sample size argument used against your point by citing yet another? I know that doesn't work in your college classes, professor. Or if it does, no wonder you try to cease the debate by yelling "stop".

 

I say stop because I don't think you are taking in the relevant particular situation that Morneau is in with his health. Last year was bound to start out problematic for him, but he did pick up a lot of steam and this offseason was "normal" for him. There's just zero reason to think that a healthy Morneau isn't going to be somewhat like the pre-2010 Morneau. He's older, so there will be some decline.

 

It's not as though I am the only one who has pointed to Morneau's second half of the season as a significant improvement.

[jokin]

I say stop because I don't think you are taking in the relevant particular situation that Morneau is in with his health. Last year was bound to start out problematic for him, but he did pick up a lot of steam and this offseason was "normal" for him. There's just zero reason to think that a healthy Morneau isn't going to be somewhat like the pre-2010 Morneau. He's older, so there will be some decline.

 

It's not as though I am the only one who has pointed to Morneau's second half of the season as a significant improvement.

 

I think I understand that Morneau has made significant strides to a return towards being as fully recovered from his last concussion as he can be. I'm still not certain that the average fan appreciates his long ordeal enough. He did look better in the 2nd half last year, the first half had people howling to make a part-time platoon player out of a $14M investment. He had 2 months where he resembled the Justin of old and 4 months where he just looked rusty- and just old. And that's my point, the Twins are likely to move on, via midseason trade (although Ryan hasn't proved he can make a deadline "sellers" deal that would actually help the club long-term, should be interesting what kind of offer would motivate him to pull the trigger)- or refusing to make a QO, whichever way his season shakes out- great or pedestrian- and go with someone younger and cheaper, unless he's willing to take a salary cut. I think Morneau thinks he still has the juice left in the tank for one more decent contract- he recently mentioned the Blue Jays as his desired location- perhaps at a "Canadian-Born Discount"?

[kab21]

Trading Morneau even at the deadline still only makes sense if there is actually something decent coming back. The Twins have enough PR problems with fans (losing and cutting payroll) to just dump him. And I think the return would be underwhelming for Morneau.

 

I'm not really against offering Morneau a tender at about 14M. There's payroll room and he's a fan favorite. At that point Morneau would be trapped since it's very unlikely that a team would give up a 1st rd pick and sign him to a multiyear deal.

 

Parmelee has nearly zero trade value after his long and mediocre MiLB career.

 

Doumit doesn't have much trade value but that could change. If there's a good offer out there then it makes sense to trade him.

 

Willingham currently has fairly good trade value and he would be my top priority to trade this summer.

[Nick Nelson]

I'm not really against offering Morneau a tender at about 14M. There's payroll room and he's a fan favorite. At that point Morneau would be trapped since it's very unlikely that a team would give up a 1st rd pick and sign him to a multiyear deal.

I'm not so sure. If Morneau demonstrates this year that he's returned to form, I think he'd be pretty highly coveted as a free agent. A lot of teams would love to add an elite slugger and proven run producer with his track record. I don't know if his age will be that great a deterrent; look at the deal Swisher just got.

[jorgenswest]

The best case is Morneau returns to form and gives the Twins options. They can afford to make the qualifying offer or deal him in the summer.

 

If his hitting is similar to last year, the Twins won't have options. The best case would be to trade him to a cash strapped contender, pick up his salary and buy a prospect.

 

Most teams will view Doumit as a DH/PH. I don't think there will be much trade value. They couldn't get anything for Thome a few years ago with an OPS+ of 126. Doumit's bat will likely be below that level.

 

Parmelee is under team control for several years. If he plays well and has trade value, it will better to retain control and keep him. If he doesn't have trade value...

 

Willingham also is a defensive liability and difficult to trade unless he can match his OPS+ of 144 (significantly higher than any other season in his career). If he returns to his career rate of 125, he won't bring back much in trade. If his history of injury trouble returns...

 

Thinking that the Twins can get back significant prospects in return is as realistic as thinking Liriano was worth a top 100 prospect.

[kab21]

I'm not so sure. If Morneau demonstrates this year that he's returned to form, I think he'd be pretty highly coveted as a free agent. A lot of teams would love to add an elite slugger and proven run producer with his track record. I don't know if his age will be that great a deterrent; look at the deal Swisher just got.

 

Swisher has played 148+ games every season w/o any down years (the CHW year was a little iffy) and can play 1B and OF. Morneau carries too much injury risk imo to get a long contract. He also has to get rid of the can't hit lefties tag that he developed last season.

 

It's possible that he puts up a .900 OPS and does gain some interest as a FA but I'm not even that optimistic about him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't get the angst over Morneau. He was an MVP calliber hitter before that injury. No one is saying his 2006-2010 seasons were flukes. It was clear he was not the same in 2011 with injury after injury and returning from that concussion, and it's undisputed that he was still not the same at the start of 2012. Unlike 2011 and 2012, Morneau looks good this spring. He's hitting well and he's no longer scared. I don't get what people are worried about. He's going to post an OPS around .900, and baring any other injury (and an absolute flop by Arcia, Parmalee, and Benson), he'll be traded at the deadline. The question as I see it is whether the Twins will try to bring him back. I personally would, as they will still need help at DH as the next wave arrives. Having Morneau and Parmalee rotate between 1st and DH makes a ton of sense.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't get the angst over Morneau. He was an MVP calliber hitter before that injury. No one is saying his 2006-2010 seasons were flukes. It was clear he was not the same in 2011 with injury after injury and returning from that concussion, and it's undisputed that he was still not the same at the start of 2012. Unlike 2011 and 2012, Morneau looks good this spring. He's hitting well and he's no longer scared. I don't get what people are worried about. He's going to post an OPS around .900, and baring any other injury (and an absolute flop by Arcia, Parmalee, and Benson), he'll be traded at the deadline. The question as I see it is whether the Twins will try to bring him back. I personally would, as they will still need help at DH as the next wave arrives. Having Morneau and Parmalee rotate between 1st and DH makes a ton of sense.

 

The angst is because head injuries are different than most injuires.

They are unpredictable and even in this modern age of medicine, neurological experts still dont know everything about the brain.

Its not like a broken foot where you put it in a cast and x amount of weeks later its like it never happened.

It's silly to declare that Morneau is for a fact going to OPS .900, as if its some sort of undisputed fact and not opinion. Especially considering he's only OPS'd .900 once in his career (in a season in which he accumulated enough PA's to qualify), and that was his MVP season.

Nobody is saying he cant do it. Of course he could do it, but those people also are not declaring that they know for a fact he won't.

[jokin]

The angst is because head injuries are different than most injuires.

They are unpredictable and even in this modern age of medicine, neurological experts still dont know everything about the brain.

Its not like a broken foot where you put it in a cast and x amount of weeks later its like it never happened.

It's silly to declare that Morneau is for a fact going to OPS .900, as if its some sort of undisputed fact and not opinion. Especially considering he's only OPS'd .900 once in his career (in a season in which he accumulated enough PA's to qualify), and that was his MVP season.

Nobody is saying he cant do it. Of course he could do it, but those people also are not declaring that they know for a fact he won't.

 

A lot of people posting these days who turned in their objectivity at the door when ST opened up and have their Twins Wish-O-Meter set at "Eleventy" ever since:

 

"Gibson is our Ace and it would be a travesty to send him back down to AAA!"/

"After his breakout season last year, let's just put Arcia in RF now!"/

"Looking at his ST BA, it's a given that Rosario is our best Second Baseman and will be called up in July!"/

"I was all for trading Morneau, but he is fully recovered from his injuries and is dominant again!"/

[bird]

I'd say the risk is that you pay him $13 million and then he gets another concussion and gives you zero production.

I'd move him for any halfway decent prospect they can at the deadline.

 

True, he could get a concussion without playing a single game after accepting a QO. I'd still be inclined to take the risk if he stayed healthy and productive throughout 2013. I mean, EVERY player poses a season-ending injury risk.