Article: Draft Board v.2.0 (3/13)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1453-Draft-Board-v-2-0-(3-13)

[ashbury]

You've got me sold on Gray for the moment - it's gotta be a pitcher. But with so much time until the draft, and at #4, the Twins will be favored to pick a lot of different guys between now and then.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Agreed. But a pitcher flying up the board like he has, really benefits the Twins.

 

Now what if I told you Jonathan Gray was Jeff Gray's second cousin, once-removed? (I'm totally kidding, by the way.)

[Mike Sixel]

I wish the Appel would fall again.....but why would he, really?

[3rd Inning Stretch]

If Frazier is there, I don't think you can pass, OF or not. Deal with it four years from now when he's ready.

[Jeff P]

I want Appel but if it means taking a bunch cheap options in later rounds then I would pass. There are too many good prospects to effectively put so many eggs in one basket. I would rather play it straight up and take a chance that he won't sign for near slot. Worst case is we get #5 next year in what is supposed to be a deeper draft.

[Mike Sixel]

And you keep passing on ace potential pitchers, where do you get them? Not in trade....not in free agency....if the twins do not draft them, how do they get them?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Agreed. But a pitcher flying up the board like he has, really benefits the Twins.

 

Now what if I told you Jonathan Gray was Jeff Gray's second cousin, once-removed? (I'm totally kidding, by the way.)

 

That was my first thought that came to mind. Hmmm J. Gray..... Where have I seen that before?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I really think we have no chance at getting Manaea with #4. I would say there are only 3 viable options for the Twins. That would be Appel, Stanek, and Gray. It should get easier from there if any of those guys are drafted in the top 3 along with Manaea as well. I liked the Buxton pick at the time last year, but there is absolutely no reason not to grab a pitcher this year with the first pick. Appel is definitely the first choice and the Twins would be nuts to pass on him. I still favor Stanek over Gray, but if those are the only 2 left (of the three I mentioned) it becomes a very interesting situation.

[Kwak]

I have not heard of any SS or C named as potential "top 5" talent--therefore, it's clear--Best Available Pitcher. True, we have all read about the high prospect rankings for some Twins minor leaguers. Sadly, many prospects don't pan out--so a franchise had better be loaded with them to ensure a steady flow of quality pitching advancing to the parent team. The Twins need to overstock on pitching.

[2wins87]

How about Reese McGuire or Jonathan Denney? Might not end up being top 5 guys, but from what I've read they could go top ten, and have bats that might play at a corner outfield spot, but could definitely stick at catcher if a team doesn't want to rush them (sounds like the Twins).

 

I'd at least have them on my prospects to watch.

[clutterheart]

Right now, Frazier should be the #1 pick but lot can happen between now and then. I'm thinking Appel will be gone by the time the Twins pick. But I think if Manaea is available, they take him

If the Twins don't draft a pitcher, hope they take this guy:

2013 MLB Draft Profile: Jonathan Denney, C, Oklahoma HS - Minor League Ball

 

I am surprised he didn't make your board. In the few sites I read, he is getting a lot of steam and if he has a good year, he'll be a top 10 pick.

This team could use a good catcher and right now, he looks to be the best of the bunch.

[jmlease1]

I both love Appel and am terrified of him. And Scott Boras has very little to do with it, although that is a bit of a problem is it means the Twins can't make quality signings because they have to go so far over slot to sign him. But if you draft him with the #4 pick, you really have to sign him, right? My real concern is that he's Mark Prior, vol. II. He's put up some ridiculous pitch counts in college and it has me concerned that he's going to break down quickly. You'd like the #4 overall pick to have a MLB career that's more than 3 solid seasons, 1 great season, and then no more seasons.

 

Fortunately the draft is a ways off. The Twins have 2 major needs in the system: high-end starting pitching (because you always need it) and middle infield. But it doesn't look like there's a killer SS prospect right now.

[2wins87]

I'm not so sure Frazier isn't a guy who can be passed up for some of the other players in the draft. This may be me just rationalizing why the Twins shouldn't pick another toolsy CF if he's available at #4, but he's only 5'11" with a fairly solid frame already, so there's not that much room for projection. He'll also be almost 19 at draft time, this isn't something you consider if he's the best player available, but guys that are younger for their level do tend to have more future success.

 

Anyway, before the season started I didn't see anyone saying that if he and Buxton were in the same class, Frazier would go ahead of Buxton. I'm not sure the HS season will change that, Buxton just has a lot more projectability. But it's hard to ignore a guy who's done nothing but hit bombs since the season started, so I don't know. I'm sort of hoping that he keeps it up so one of the teams ahead of the Twins feels that they can't pass and the Twins get a shot at their favorite pitcher.

[Forever34]

Isn't Appel a senior this year? If Bor******* can't threaten to make him sit out again what leverage does he have? What's he going to do? Play in the Northern League until someone gives him the money he wants? This is the perfect year to take him.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Both the prep catchers are on the radar. As of about a week ago, McGuire's season hadn't started, so he hadn't been scouted by the regional supervisor. I'll have to dig more on Denney. My gut says they don't go in the top 10. But my gut's been wrong before.

 

Frazier probably profiles better in the corner of the outfield. From a scout who has seen him (and Meadows and Buxton) a number of times, "Frazier has power, not the same hitter as Meadows, but a power threat each time he steps in the box. Frazier can run, throw & has power but is not the hitter or fielder Byron was." Frazier would be a perfect right-fielder, right-handed power hitter at Target Field. (I'd even take him at 3B.)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Isn't Appel a senior this year? If Bor******* can't threaten to make him sit out again what leverage does he have? What's he going to do? Play in the Northern League until someone gives him the money he wants? This is the perfect year to take him.

 

He's not subject to the signing deadline, so that gives them a little leverage. If he doesn't get the money, he'll sit out and probably play Indy Ball. Regardless, I'd take him and get it worked out. At the end of the day, he just needs to sign for more that Pittsburgh offered him... and Boras looks like he made the right decision.

[gunnarthor]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Houston do what they did last year and grab a top 10 guy #1 and use some of the money later. It worked out well for them and, even more than the Twins, they need lots of talent. My guess is that Appel and Boras won't slip past the Cubs. They'll have a ton of money to throw at him and they can easily double what the Pirates offered last year so Appel's gamble pays off. Boras and Theo might even have some "understanding" about service time going in. I just don't see Appel being there at #4. If he is, grab him. Rockies and Twins are both probably dreaming of an elite pitcher.

 

I'm really hoping a few of these other pitchers turn it around and be there at 4.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I agree with you completely, gunnarthor. I am really curious to see how many teams look at the Astros and Blue Jays approach and try to do the same thing. There were a handful of teams that took similar, though more subtle approaches last year, and I know that scouts within organizations were not pleased with how rounds 3-10 went, some calling it a "complete joke". There were a handful of players that got $1,000 signing bonuses.

[AmateurScoutGuy]

The Twins absolutely have to take the best college arm available. They cannot take a projectable, toolsy prep position player. They don't have that option because of their talent in their system right now. They need an arm that can be in the rotation by late 2013/early 2014 and can be a top 2 starter. In my opinion, right now the 2 most polished ready to go college arms are Appel and Manaea in that order. If both are gone, then the Twins take whichever college arm is next on their depth chart. Gray's ceiling is high, but he has a lot of risk. Stanek has tons of potential too and finishing the season strong like Gausman did last year will help his cause.

 

The Twins need a college arm.

[Mike Sixel]

Just think, they could have taken Gausman last year, and now be free to take a HS toolsy OFer, or a SP.....but now, really, with no clear AWESOME hitter, they pretty much have to take a SP. You can't get an ace or even a number 2 w/o picking high in the draft, generally. Heck, for months people have been saying on this very board taht the Twins problem is that they were too good in the 2000s, and had late first round picks. Now people are trying to say they should have top 5 picks in back to back years, be flush in OF prospects, and should pass on great pitching prospects two years in a row?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If, today, we're comparing Buxton and one of Appel/Manaea/Gray/Stanek to Gausman and Frazier, I'm taking the pair with Buxton in it. I like Gausman a lot (and I'd put him right in that other mix), but Buxton is a much better prospect than Frazier. Different, but better.

 

I think it will work out for the Twins because I believe there will be a really good college pitcher that hears his name called when the Twins are on the clock.

[gunnarthor]

Not sure anyone is saying pass on top pitching prospects. Some are saying take best player available, which as Klaw noted today, would almost certainly be a pitcher. They lineup well. I think the concern might be if Appel, Manea and Stanek go 1-2-3, if there would be a 4th pitcher good enough to go #4. But we have months to go before we have to worry about that.

[AmateurScoutGuy]

Regarding Gausman: I was just saying that he started slow and finished strong last year at LSU. Stanek has had a slow start so far as well at Arkansas.

[Brad Swanson]

Right now, Frazier should be the #1 pick but lot can happen between now and then. I'm thinking Appel will be gone by the time the Twins pick. But I think if Manaea is available, they take him

If the Twins don't draft a pitcher, hope they take this guy:

2013 MLB Draft Profile: Jonathan Denney, C, Oklahoma HS - Minor League Ball

 

I am surprised he didn't make your board. In the few sites I read, he is getting a lot of steam and if he has a good year, he'll be a top 10 pick.

This team could use a good catcher and right now, he looks to be the best of the bunch.

 

I like Denney a lot too. I think he might sneak into the top 5, like Mike Zunino last season (although Zunino was a college catcher).

 

It seems a lot of people want a college arm. I'm fine with that, so long as it's the best available player. Too much can change, even with college arms that look like sure things, to pass up someone with huge upside. Danny Hultzen would be an example. He could still iron things out, but he could end up a bust just as much as Bubba Starling, taken 3 picks later. If it's down to a college arm that you sort of like, or an outfielder that you love, I'd take the better player and deal with positional issues when/if it becomes an issue.

 

Just my opinion. All that being said, I like Manaea and Appel, but I'm not so sure I would take Stanek or Gray over Frazier or even Meadows.

[Mike Sixel]

What is BPA, though? How big a difference does there need to be to take another toolsy OFer, that is 5 years away, between that OFer and the best pitcher? How do you propose getting a pitcher, if you don't ever draft them at the top of the draft? And yes, there are now two people in the thread saying they'd pass on college arms for HS hitters.

[Brad Swanson]

Yes, I absolutely would pass on a college arm for a HS hitter, if I felt the HS hitter was better.

 

I just always prefer taking the best player. Although, I will admit that deciding on the "best player" is a huge challenge and not as simple as I am making it out to be.

[Brad Swanson]

I agree with you completely, gunnarthor. I am really curious to see how many teams look at the Astros and Blue Jays approach and try to do the same thing. There were a handful of teams that took similar, though more subtle approaches last year, and I know that scouts within organizations were not pleased with how rounds 3-10 went, some calling it a "complete joke". There were a handful of players that got $1,000 signing bonuses.

 

This is where Gray gets more interesting to me. If the Twins knew he would sign under slot (for whatever reason), I'd have no problem with the Twins drafting him 4th, then using extra money later in the draft. I'd love to see them get Chris Okey or Jeremy Martinez with their next pick, pay them extra and get them in the system.

 

Of course, if Gray is really hitting 100 consistently, he probably won't have to sign under slot. But I still like that strategy.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Re: Denney. Text from Twins scout: 1st rounder, Top 10 might be high, seeing him Monday in Phoenix.

 

Hopefully I'll be able to get more then...

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, I absolutely would pass on a college arm for a HS hitter, if I felt the HS hitter was better.

 

I just always prefer taking the best player. Although, I will admit that deciding on the "best player" is a huge challenge and not as simple as I am making it out to be.

 

how do you get great pitching if you would literally always pass on it if there is a better hitter available? I'm not trying to be a jerk, I really want to know....how would you get great pitching if you would pass on it for a hitter every time, if you felt there was a slightly better hitter available?