Now’s the Time to Trade Nelson Cruz to this AL Team

[Seansy]

It is worth mentioning that you only need 2 teams competing for one player to get into a theoretical "bidding war" on a trade piece. Obviously the more buyers the better but between Oakland, TB, and even the White Sox with Yermin slumping badly this past month+ I think that is enough teams that would be interested in Cruz to get at least 1 top 100 prospect or multiple high upside guys. From what I'm seeing reading lots of baseball writers on the Twins trade pieces most of them seem to believe Cruz will fetch a good return even as a rental for the same reasons he's been such a great fit for the Twins.

We'll see what happens over the next couple of months but if a guy like Escobar with little track record can get a projectable young pitcher like Duran I don't see how Cruz can't get AT LEAST that if not significantly more.

[ashbury]

Two scouting sources I use for quick and dirty ideas (mlb.com and OOTP) both suggest Brujan's arm is the limiting factor - on a par with Polanco's would be my interpretation  As mentioned just above, he's played more corner outfield than middle infield in 2021 (but in fairness also some CF).  The guy may turn out to be another tweener who profiles better at 2B.  If so, do the Twins move heaven and earth to get him when they have someone like that already under control through 2025 and two other guys with similar skill sets too?

[Danchat]

4 hours ago, nclahammer said:

Way too early to abandon ship and hit the panic button IMO.

 

I heard this back in 2018 as well, we wouldn’t have Duran here if we had held onto Escobar for another 2 months.

I don’t see the point of having Cruz spend August and September on a bad/middling team. He deserves to go on a World Series run with a real contender.

[mike8791]

Nope, have to disagree with premise of trading anyone now.  Cruz is an obvious candidate but need to wait at least a month in hope he heats up a bit and the contenders' needs become more apparent.  But yes, Cruz should not be in the clubs' plans for 2022.   Sano or Donaldson should not be traded at all unless FO gets a particularly appealing offer.  We'll need Sano for DH next year and there is no one in the org. ready to replace Donaldson at 3B.  They both are disappointments but Twins should not be in a rebuild mode unless guys like Jeffers, Kirillof, Larnach prove wanting for remainder of this year.

Let the FO concentrate on solidifying the bullpen first, after all, this was the origin for the team's crash this year.  If Duffy and Rogers recover from a poor start, if guys like Alcala and maybe Ferrell prove to be positive additions and one or two of our prospect flame throwers are given an early chance to demonstrate they belong, at least we have the makings for improvement next year.  This is where they need to be agressive, not in dumpster fire selloffs.

[DocSavage]

Its pointless to dump all the players and leave the Dynamic Duo in power.. because it is them and their analytic skills or lack there of that built this team..  the reality is there is more to player identification than Numbers.. and much more to team building than numbers.. and they have failed.. and this mess is proof undeniable..

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, spycake said:

That's fair. Per Baseball Trade Values, Buxton (37.5) would be close to Brujan (41.1) straight up, although any valuation/projection for Buxton is going to have a crazy-ton of variance. Berrios is at 29.7.

I was really just trying to convey how nice it would be to have an elite SS.  At one point it looked like we might get one between Lewis and Javier.  Those odds look pretty short (pun intended) at the moment.  It's been a long time since this team had that type of SS.  Brujan may not be the guy either given the concerns about his arm.  I just ant to watch a great SS for the next few years.  Buxton was awesome to start the season but I would trade him for a great SS prospect that was near ready.

[Major League Ready]

3 minutes ago, DocSavage said:

Its pointless to dump all the players and leave the Dynamic Duo in power.. because it is them and their analytic skills or lack there of that built this team..  the reality is there is more to player identification than Numbers.. and much more to team building than numbers.. and they have failed.. and this mess is proof undeniable..

Buxton was playing as well as anyone in MLB.  He went down.  Our Cy Young candidate from last year is hurt and performed poorly before he went down.  Garver had been tearing it up and he went down.  The guy everyone wanted retained (Cruz) has been pretty mediocre since May 1.  Arraez is hurt.  Duffy and Stashak had been reliable and they have not been good.  Pretty hard to blame this stuff on the front office.

[Joe Jacyszyn]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

That could make sense IF Sano gains consistency between now and the deadline and they continue to get low production from first base and the twins are willing to eat a significant part of his salary.  I would like to find a package the Ray's like for Brujan has is ready to debut.  Maybe a 3 team team trade.  He could take over for Simmons right now and he has a 949 OPS at AAA.  The Rays have Franco waiting in the wings so they could move Brujan.

With Sanó I hope he doesn’t t be like David Ortiz and become a star o

[SanoMustGo]

5 hours ago, nclahammer said:

Way too early to abandon ship and hit the panic button IMO.

 

I am assuming you mean don't trade him now, but wait until we get closer to the deadline so we could possibly have multiple bidders.  That makes some sense.  There are a few of guys I would love to see gone by the deadline, either by trade if they have value, or DFA'd if they don't and they are still performing poorly.

[darwin22]

6 hours ago, dbminn said:

Oakland could be a trade partner too. They've struggled to get anything out of DH from Moreland and Lowrie.

Unless Moreland is hitting against our gas can pitching staff.

[SanoMustGo]

12 minutes ago, Joe Jacyszyn said:

With Sanó I hope he doesn’t t be like David Ortiz and become a star o

Compare Sano's and Ortiz's progression.  Look at the numbers put up by Ortiz at age 26-27.  You can clearly see his improvement.  Compare that to Sano's production now and his lack of progression.  If I had to bet, I would not expect Sano to even sniff going forward what Ortiz did.

[Dman]

4 hours ago, spycake said:

Tampa's biggest weakness right now is not at DH or in the outfield (again, depending on how one views Kiermaier's CF defense relative to the other OF).

LHB 1B Ji-Man Choi is on the IL again, with an uncertain timeline for returning. RHB Yandy Diaz isn't bad, but his OBP-and-little-else batting line may not be a good everyday option there. And they already traded Tsutsugo. Tampa's top prospects are SS Franco and INF/OF Brujan, which can help just about everywhere except 1B.

Unless Cruz starts hitting like 2019-2020 again, I'd guess that Tampa would be better off getting a bat that can play 1B rather than an exclusive DH. Trey Mancini could be an excellent target, with a cheaper 2021 salary and 2022 control too. If KC decides to sell, Santana could be a target. Looks like SF may actually stick in the race, otherwise Belt would be in play. Cheaper targets would be Aguilar from MIA, etc.

I tend to agree with you but they are just an injury away from Cruz being a fit.  It would be tricky to work a deal with Tampa as the Twins would have to eat salary and I don't know what their appetite for that is going to be after the losses during COVID and them spending higher than normal this year.  Personally I think they will want to dump salary if they can at the deadline.

Still if Tampa wanted Cruz they have a lot of middle infield talent and we need infield talent.  One Guy that I think might work for Cruz would be Greg Jones.  He has the Speed and arm for the position and some decent power.  The hit tool is suspect but it looks like he has a decent eye at the plate.  Twins might need to take on most all of Cruz's salary or add a non top 30 pitcher\player to be named later that Tampa likes to make it all work but could be a possibility.

Another guy might be Carlos Colmenarez.  It would be risky for the Twins because he was a top 4 international signing and those don't always work out but it might work as a way for Tampa to offset Cruz's salary since they already dumped 3M into signing Colmenarez they could offer the cost of acquiring him to offset Cruz's salary.  It is a much bigger risk for the Twins since international signings don't generally pan out but Tampa has been pretty darn good at identifying international talent so might be worth the risk.  

At any rate Tampa has players further down that are still interesting for Cruz and they should be in go for it mode since they are leading their division right now.  Like you said though they don't have an immediate need for Cruz and they might find options with more versatility more to their liking than just a DH only player.  Will have to wait and see but the Twins would match up well with Tampa's excess of middle infield prospects if they like Cruz.

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

In June of 2019 we were riding high with a 10 game lead on the Indians, and the division ended up coming down to the last couple of weeks of the season. So many folks here willing to give up all hope on this season. I don't agree.

[Otto von Ballpark]

7 hours ago, dbminn said:

Oakland could be a trade partner too. They've struggled to get anything out of DH from Moreland and Lowrie.

Historically, Oakland seems like a good fit for Cruz -- they had the final seasons of sluggers like Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza.

But Moreland hasn't been terrible, with a 105 wRC+ -- and Oakland has no place to play him other than DH, with Olson locked in a 1B. (Lowrie has a 107 wRC+ overall too, which is not bad)

If Ramon Laureano is out for awhile, and Buxton really does return soon, I wonder if Oakland would make a big splash for Buxton? They've made some big trades in the past, for Holliday and Samardzija. And they'd have the option to flip Buxton in the offseason.

[dbminn]

1 hour ago, spycake said:

Historically, Oakland seems like a good fit for Cruz -- they had the final seasons of sluggers like Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza.

But Moreland hasn't been terrible, with a 105 wRC+ -- and Oakland has no place to play him other than DH, with Olson locked in a 1B. (Lowrie has a 107 wRC+ overall too, which is not bad)

If Ramon Laureano is out for awhile, and Buxton really does return soon, I wonder if Oakland would make a big splash for Buxton? They've made some big trades in the past, for Holliday and Samardzija. And they'd have the option to flip Buxton in the offseason.

That's true re: A's DH. But Cruz is at least a 30% improvement if healthy. That's a lot. 

[insagt1]

6 hours ago, spycake said:

Tampa's biggest weakness right now is not at DH or in the outfield (again, depending on how one views Kiermaier's CF defense relative to the other OF).

LHB 1B Ji-Man Choi is on the IL again, with an uncertain timeline for returning. RHB Yandy Diaz isn't bad, but his OBP-and-little-else batting line may not be a good everyday option there. And they already traded Tsutsugo. Tampa's top prospects are SS Franco and INF/OF Brujan, which can help just about everywhere except 1B.

Unless Cruz starts hitting like 2019-2020 again, I'd guess that Tampa would be better off getting a bat that can play 1B rather than an exclusive DH. Trey Mancini could be an excellent target, with a cheaper 2021 salary and 2022 control too. If KC decides to sell, Santana could be a target. Looks like SF may actually stick in the race, otherwise Belt would be in play. Cheaper targets would be Aguilar from MIA, etc.

The O's would be totally nuts to trade Mancini. He is young and would be the centerpiece of a team that is trying to become competitive. He could never be replaced for value. I doubt he's going anywhere.

[Otto von Ballpark]

4 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

The O's would be totally nuts to trade Mancini. He is young and would be the centerpiece of a team that is trying to become competitive. He could never be replaced for value. I doubt he's going anywhere.

Mancini is 29 years old already, and like Buxton and Berrios he is set to become a free agent after 2022. I doubt the O's expect to be competitive in that time frame, their top prospects aren't even in AAA yet.

Did you mean Mullins? He's only 26 and won't even be arb eligible until after 2022, FA after 2025. Means is a better asset too -- 28 but not a FA until after 2024.

[bighat]

9 hours ago, adorduan said:

If Cruz is "mentoring" all these players, why aren't the results there?  Polanco, Kepler, and especially Sano haven't shown any improvement...Frankly, I think the "mentoring" thing is way overrated...

Exactly.

And by the way, what do we think will make Nelson happy? Riding out his last year as a part-time DH, part-time coach on a last place team going nowhere? Or competing in the playoffs for an elusive World Series ring?

I can't for the life of me see any reason for Nelson Cruz to be in a Twins uniform for much longer. It's meaningless to have a guy like this on a cellar-dwelling team. Send the guy to TB if you can swing a deal, grab a few lottery tickets and wish him luck. Here's hoping we see him playing on a contender in October.

[DocSavage]

Its pointless to dump all the players and leave the Dynamic Duo in power.. because it is them and their analytic skills or lack there of that built this team..  the reality is there is more to player identification than Numbers.. and much more to team building than numbers.. and they have failed.. and this mess is proof undeniable..

[mac098]

Trading Cruz does hurt the team chemistry. But from an organizational stand point, it makes total sense. Clear up some cap space, allow some rookies to get more AB's, and when Garver comes back, he can be our DH. I know some of you might be wondering why Garver and not Sano, Rooker, or Jeffers. Well to be frank, Garver is a better offensive player than what he brings on defense. We all know that Garver isn't the best catcher in the world. Prior to his injury he was hitting very well, considering the season we're having. He was drawing walks, striking out less, getting good contacts, and finally hitting HR's. 

Sano is not what we need at DH. He strikes out too much, doesn't put the ball into play, and just looks lost at the plate. He is a player that just swings and prays to make solid contact. If it weren't for his past, he more than likely wouldn't have a spot in the starting lineup. He had 1 good season where he hammered the ball and everyone is waiting for that Sano to show up. I highly doubt he is going to show us that again. Yes, exit velo and xBPA are cool stats to look at and see if you're barreling the ball, but they don't mean much if you aren't getting hits and RBI's in timely situations. 

Rooker is in limbo right now. He has above average power, but like Sano, is having issues putting the bat to the ball. Yes, he has been hitting and drawing walks down at St. Paul, but that just isn't enough to warrant a full time DH spot for him. He is also less marketable because he is a liability in the field. Noodle arm, trailer hooked up to the semi, and 2 gears of granny gear and 1st gear don't help him break the lineup. At this point in his career is looking like a journeyman that will constantly be used when someone goes down on injury. A typical AAAA guy. 

Jeffers is going to be our future catcher, unless he absolutely loses the ability to hit the ball. He is a better catcher than Garver. Plain and simple. I'm not knocking that Garver can't catch, but he has constantly been touted as being below average, but he has been improving for the past few years. We know that Jeffers is more than likely going to be splitting time with Rortvedt in the future. He has some pop in the bat but again, he has struggled this year at the plate, much like the rest of the team. Although, he has been turning it around since being recalled after Garver went down with his injury. Maybe there is something going on in St. Paul with their staff that could brought over to the big league club. 

[jorgenswest]

They should have a reasonable bar set now for those with expiring contracts. They also need to find a way to get out of Donaldson’s contract and move him before he gets injured again.

Will it disrupt team chemistry? Of course. The current chemistry is headed 100 losses,  can’t score late in games and can’t close games out.

 

[Tim]

I really dont see Cruz getting you back much.. Greg Jones, maaayyybeee?? They might even be too much.

[Otto von Ballpark]

54 minutes ago, Tim said:

I really dont see Cruz getting you back much.. Greg Jones, maaayyybeee?? They might even be too much.

Baseball Trade Values pegs Jones at $11.9 mil median value, and Cruz at $2.5 mil, so probably not. We'd have to eat Cruz's full salary right now to even make it possible by those valuations, and I'm not sure the Rays would really be interested in basically selling a good prospect like that.

[Dodecahedron]

I think every fan wants their team to be making trades with Tampa Bay.  Just like in the past everyone wanted their teams to trade with Oakland or the Dodgers.

GMs might be thinking the same way (probably are) which means the likelihood of dumping rentals and has-beens on the Rays is probably not in the cards.  The Rays are in a good position to where they can get the best deal for their needs.

Cruz might be the best deal, but I'm not sure the Rays have the need.

[Tim]

58 minutes ago, spycake said:

Baseball Trade Values pegs Jones at $11.9 mil median value, and Cruz at $2.5 mil, so probably not. We'd have to eat Cruz's full salary right now to even make it possible by those valuations, and I'm not sure the Rays would really be interested in basically selling a good prospect like that.

I do think baseball trade values is a super cool site and its typically spot on with offseason trades, they haven't quite got it down on deadline deals. But you are right, im sure he is priced out of what cruz would bring back.. I hope they can the value formula a little tightened up.. Some of them are just way off, especially comparing some past mid summer deals - specifically relievers

[Tim]

Great write up! I love cruz, but yeah its probably the right move.

 

Teams I think will inquire - A's, Rays, Jays