Week in Review: Still Sinking

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Why does their prospect ranking matter? In a lost season why not start to find out whether some fringe 40 man arms can contribute? Both pitchers listed are former college pitchers already in their mid 20s. If the Twins simply need innings eaten to bridge the gap until Maeda and Pineda are back then why not someone with even a modicum of upside fill them? I just see absolutely no value, or point, in continuing to give Shoemaker the ball. 

Teams generally don't make roster decisions with the justification "why not?". Guys like Jax and Barnes may turn out to be useful, but throwing them onto the roster just because you're disappointed in Shoemaker is generally poor roster management, and you may wind up losing them (or other potentially useful players) before they are ready to contribute.

Ober has looked intriguing in a couple spot starts, Jax is on the 40-man now, Pineda will test his forearm again in a start tomorrow, Maeda has a rehab start Wednesday, Duran is over 80 pitches, and Balazovic is back. Shoemaker's not getting cut today but it is clear he has a very finite leash. If the season is really as lost as you say it is, there will be plenty of opportunities for other guys over the next 4 months.

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

There are the 5 starters that broke camp, plus now Dobnak, Thorpe, and Ober.  That's it.  8 guys.  Plus, Ober seemed like a reach and Dobnak is unpopular.  There is still a chance Dobnak's detractors are correct.  So they broke camp with 6 viable arms in the organization?  5 if you admit that Shoemaker should have never been here?  Yeesh.

Without looking, I will make a guess that 8 starters used so far is probably around average for the league, if not less than average.  I'm sorry but I can't buy the argument that Shoemaker is the best the Twins have when it does not look to me like the Twins have made an effort to address the starting pitching at all.  There is no way this is the entire depth of the Twins system.  Is there?  Gosh I hope not.  If it is, what were they thinking and how did we miss this fact 3 months ago?  If a team can't even swap out the #5 guy after only using 8 starters, what else can't they do?

Duran and Balazovic are top 100 prospects but both got hurt in camp. Not much you can do about that in March, but having 6 SP above them including Dobnak plus alternatives like Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Ober was decent depth. Of course, Thorpe and Smeltzer are on the IL now too. No org has enough "depth" to cover the amount of injury and ineffectiveness we've seen so far, but at least Duran and Balazovic are getting back into action.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, spycake said:

Teams generally don't make roster decisions with the justification "why not?". Guys like Jax and Barnes may turn out to be useful, but throwing them onto the roster just because you're disappointed in Shoemaker is generally poor roster management, and you may wind up losing them (or other potentially useful players) before they are ready to contribute.

Ober has looked intriguing in a couple spot starts, Jax is on the 40-man now, Pineda will test his forearm again in a start tomorrow, Maeda has a rehab start Wednesday, Duran is over 80 pitches, and Balazovic is back. Shoemaker's not getting cut today but it is clear he has a very finite leash. If the season is really as lost as you say it is, there will be plenty of opportunities for other guys over the next 4 months.

Calling it a "why not," move seems overstated given how truly awful Shoemaker has been coupled with the fact that he has no future in this organization. I don't understand how Jax or Barnes can be disqualified from picking up starts based on their lack of prospect luster but we're lamenting the potential of losing them. Neither is being thrown onto the 40 man; Jax is already there and Barnes will need to be or risk being selected in the Rule V. The only way either is lost is if they're DFA'd and claimed, or selected in the Rule V. The Twins have an opportunity to give extended auditions this year, and the one in question comes at the expense of one of the worst pitchers in baseball. 

[USAFChief]

I can't see any justification for continuing to throw Shoemaker out there. I don't understand how he's gotten his last few starts, much less how he is still on the team after the most recent debacle. 

Jax or Barnes could take his starts, just off the top of my head. Barnes could take Shoemaker's roster spots. 

It's either front office incompetent or hubris at this point, IMO.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

7 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Calling it a "why not," move seems overstated given how truly awful Shoemaker has been coupled with the fact that he has no future in this organization. I don't understand how Jax or Barnes can be disqualified from picking up starts based on their lack of prospect luster but we're lamenting the potential of losing them. Neither is being thrown onto the 40 man; Jax is already there and Barnes will need to be or risk being selected in the Rule V. The only way either is lost is if they're DFA'd and claimed, or selected in the Rule V. The Twins have an opportunity to give extended auditions this year, and the one in question comes at the expense of one of the worst pitchers in baseball. 

 

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I can't see any justification at this point for continuing to throw Shoemaker out there. 

Jax or Barnes could take his starts, just off the top of my head. Barnes could take Shoemaker's roster spots. 

Jax is now on the 40-man, having been added after Shoemaker's most recent start, but if you start Jax right now, then you need someone else in long relief, hence another 40-man move would need to be made. (Stashak is the only healthy pitcher left on the 40-man who's not Duran or Balazovic, and he's not a long reliever and in fact may have some of his own issues with pitching mechanics right now, not a good fit for the long relief role.)

Barnes could easily be added in Shoemaker's spot, but if Maeda is back in a week or two, then you've had very little opportunity to evaluate Barnes but he's going to occupy a 40-man spot for the foreseeable future, making it more difficult to claim or evaluate other guys (someone like Andrew Vasquez perhaps, who may still have some fine-tuning to do at AAA to earn a promotion but would be a minor league free agent at the end of the season if not promoted).

Rule 5 is a much more difficult threshold for losing a guy than simple waivers or minor league free agency. This FO has their Rule 5 mistakes (i.e. Nick Anderson) but Barnes doesn't fit that profile, so I trust that if Barnes doesn't earn a spot by season's end, he probably won't be claimed/lost.

Ultimately we're quibbling about a week or two in a long season. 3.75 months of extended auditions are not a meaningfully more significant opportunity than 3.25-3.5 months. Heck, depending on how Pineda does tonight and Maeda in his rehab start tomorrow, I wouldn't be shocked if Shoemaker doesn't start Friday and has made his last start as a Twin. But given where we are in the season, and the current state of the roster, I understand keeping things flexible over the next few days.

[KFEY93]

18 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Tyler Duffey's initials are TBD.  Just saying.

 

And you never do see Duffey and TBD in the same room together...hmmmmm

[Strombomb]

18 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

An update on the "Trending Storyline" item:

 

Yes! I will be at CHS Field tonight!!

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, spycake said:

 

Jax is now on the 40-man, having been added after Shoemaker's most recent start, but if you start Jax right now, then you need someone else in long relief, hence another 40-man move would need to be made. (Stashak is the only healthy pitcher left on the 40-man who's not Duran or Balazovic, and he's not a long reliever and in fact may have some of his own issues with pitching mechanics right now, not a good fit for the long relief role.)

Barnes could easily be added in Shoemaker's spot, but if Maeda is back in a week or two, then you've had very little opportunity to evaluate Barnes but he's going to occupy a 40-man spot for the foreseeable future, making it more difficult to claim or evaluate other guys (someone like Andrew Vasquez perhaps, who may still have some fine-tuning to do at AAA to earn a promotion but would be a minor league free agent at the end of the season if not promoted).

Rule 5 is a much more difficult threshold for losing a guy than simple waivers or minor league free agency. This FO has their Rule 5 mistakes (i.e. Nick Anderson) but Barnes doesn't fit that profile, so I trust that if Barnes doesn't earn a spot by season's end, he probably won't be claimed/lost.

Ultimately we're quibbling about a week or two in a long season. 3.75 months of extended auditions are not a meaningfully more significant opportunity than 3.25-3.5 months. Heck, depending on how Pineda does tonight and Maeda in his rehab start tomorrow, I wouldn't be shocked if Shoemaker doesn't start Friday and has made his last start as a Twin. But given where we are in the season, and the current state of the roster, I understand keeping things flexible over the next few days.

Sorry, Spy, none of this makes much sense. If they "need" a long guy, which nobody carries any more, give Jax the starts and make Shoemaker the long guy. But worrying about that is pointless anyway.

If Maeda makes his rehab start, he's not taking Shoemaker's next start.

It's not a matter of 3.5 or 3.75 months...it's a matter of not wasting starts on a one year FA who isn't any good, in a lost season. 

There is no reason to have Shoemaker on this team. None.

[Vanimal46]

42 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Sorry, Spy, none of this makes much sense. If they "need" a long guy, which nobody carries any more, give Jax the starts and make Shoemaker the long guy. But worrying about that is pointless anyway.

If Maeda makes his rehab start, he's not taking Shoemaker's next start.

It's not a matter of 3.5 or 3.75 months...it's a matter of not wasting starts on a one year FA who isn't any good, in a lost season. 

There is no reason to have Shoemaker on this team. None.

There’s one more reason to explore before they cut bait entirely. He could be a potential band aid for the bullpen...

Opponents are batting .212 with a .606 OPS facing him the first time. Then it gets really ugly the 2nd (1.015 OPS) and 3rd time (1.145 OPS) through the order. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

53 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Sorry, Spy, none of this makes much sense. If they "need" a long guy, which nobody carries any more, give Jax the starts and make Shoemaker the long guy. But worrying about that is pointless anyway.

If Maeda makes his rehab start, he's not taking Shoemaker's next start.

It's not a matter of 3.5 or 3.75 months...it's a matter of not wasting starts on a one year FA who isn't any good, in a lost season. 

There is no reason to have Shoemaker on this team. None.

I know long relief guys are out of style, but I think the Twins benefit from one right now, given the current state of the staff.

If Jax isn't needed much tonight behind Pineda, then I think you potentially could see him take Shoemaker's next turn. Or Shoemaker could have a very short leash, almost an opener type situation with Jax following. I endorse Jax getting some innings over the next week. But there's probably still room for Shoemaker innings too.

And I didn't mean to imply that Maeda would immediately return after one rehab start -- but the outcome of that rehab start, and Pineda's start tonight, could give the Twins a better idea of their near future SP needs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

54 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

There’s one more reason to explore before they cut bait entirely. He could be a potential band aid for the bullpen...

Opponents are batting .212 with a .606 OPS facing him the first time. Then it gets really ugly the 2nd (1.015 OPS) and 3rd time (1.145 OPS) through the order. 

How is that even possible after a 9 run first inning?  I guess the big 3 run HR was after the lineup turned over.

The Jays used Shoemaker for an effective 3 inning, 35 pitch start in their playoff opener last year. Admittedly he had recently missed a month of game action due to injury so he wasn't going to pitch deep into that game, but they probably would have pushed him beyond 35 pitches unless they were intentionally limiting his exposure.

[Dodecahedron]

17 minutes ago, spycake said:

The Jays used Shoemaker for an effective 3 inning, 35 pitch start in their playoff opener last year. Admittedly he had recently missed a month of game action due to injury so he wasn't going to pitch deep into that game, but they probably would have pushed him beyond 35 pitches unless they were intentionally limiting his exposure.

There is one year (2019) that Shoemaker looked awesome.  It's a small sample size.  Remove that year, and what happens?  I agree, the Jays knew who he was.  The Twins Tommy Milone'd themselves.*

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/H8Fb8

*Fun Fact:  Milone is now a Blue Jay.  They chose him over Shoemaker.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just now, Dodecahedron said:

There is one year (2019) that Shoemaker looked awesome.  It's a small sample size.  Remove that year, and what happens?
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/H8Fb8

I'm not sure what you are arguing. No one thinks Shoemaker is any kind of star but he was a career 103 ERA+ pitcher entering this season, and that figure is still 99 even if you remove 2019. That's a league average starting pitcher. Now he may be cooked, or he may need a different role to regain that effectiveness.

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, spycake said:

 

Jax is now on the 40-man, having been added after Shoemaker's most recent start, but if you start Jax right now, then you need someone else in long relief, hence another 40-man move would need to be made. (Stashak is the only healthy pitcher left on the 40-man who's not Duran or Balazovic, and he's not a long reliever and in fact may have some of his own issues with pitching mechanics right now, not a good fit for the long relief role.)

Barnes could easily be added in Shoemaker's spot, but if Maeda is back in a week or two, then you've had very little opportunity to evaluate Barnes but he's going to occupy a 40-man spot for the foreseeable future, making it more difficult to claim or evaluate other guys (someone like Andrew Vasquez perhaps, who may still have some fine-tuning to do at AAA to earn a promotion but would be a minor league free agent at the end of the season if not promoted).

Rule 5 is a much more difficult threshold for losing a guy than simple waivers or minor league free agency. This FO has their Rule 5 mistakes (i.e. Nick Anderson) but Barnes doesn't fit that profile, so I trust that if Barnes doesn't earn a spot by season's end, he probably won't be claimed/lost.

Ultimately we're quibbling about a week or two in a long season. 3.75 months of extended auditions are not a meaningfully more significant opportunity than 3.25-3.5 months. Heck, depending on how Pineda does tonight and Maeda in his rehab start tomorrow, I wouldn't be shocked if Shoemaker doesn't start Friday and has made his last start as a Twin. But given where we are in the season, and the current state of the roster, I understand keeping things flexible over the next few days.

Look, I'm not caping for Barnes or Jax in particular. My issue is with how the roster space is being utilized. I agree with you, that in general, 40 man spots shouldn't be treated haphazardly, and if you can avoid exposing players to waivers it's almost always preferable. I think the combination of a historically awful bullpen, some really bad back end starting, and an awful record has put the Twins in a situation where conventional roster management isn't the best option. 

There's significant turnover at the bottom of any 40 man roster. I'd be more concerned about limited opportunities for these fringe guys if the Twins, by some miracle, find themselves near contention next season. Even if that's not the case, there's still a decent chance they're 40 man casualties in the near future. The likelihood any of them are even moderate contributors next season is low. Right now we know this team isn't competing and they have 3.75 months worth of innings to evaluate. Whether it's Jax, Barnes, Vasquez, ect doesn't really matter, the point is that there's more value in getting an extended look at potential filler now than sinking more innings into Shoemaker.