4 Twins Statcast Standouts

[Cody Christie]

With a third of the 2021 season in the rearview mirror, the Twins struggles have been well documented. However, these four players have stood out in various Statcast categories as the calendar turns to June.

Mitch Garver: .497 xwOBAcon

What makes Garver’s injury tough to swallow is how well he had been hitting at the plate. His Statcast numbers point to this improvement even after his slow start to the season. For those unfamiliar, xOBAcon uses three variables: exit velocity (EV), launch angle (LA), and sprint speed. Garver’s exit velocity and launch angle have allowed him to spray the ball all over the field. He currently ranks in the top 6% of the league in xwOBAcon so the hope is he can return sooner rather than later. As Rocco Baldelli alluded to after Tuesday’s game, it’s hard to imagine he will be behind the plate anytime soon.

Luis Arraez: .308 xBA

Arraez is another player the Twins are missing on the IL. During his big-league career, Arraez has been known for his bat to ball skills with many thinking a batting title is in the realm of possibility for him. Expected batting average (xBA) is a metric that measures the likelihood a batted ball will become a hit. Sometimes a player gets lucky, and ball falls in for a hit and other times a hard-hit ball ends up being an out. Arraez currently has a .277 batting average, but his xBA is over 30 points higher as he ranks in the top 3% of the league. Arraez provides an energy at the plate and the Twins offense has been struggling to find energy in recent weeks with him out of the line-up

Andrelton Simmons: 9 Outs Above Average

The Twins signed Simmons to provide a defensive upgrade and he has certainly come as advertised on that side of the ball. Only three players have produced an outs above average total of nine as Simmons is joined by Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed. His recent play has moved him up this list so it will be intriguing to see if he can stay healthy and producing on the defensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, his strikeout numbers have made him a disappointment on the offensive side, but he might be on his way to winning another Gold Glove. As a veteran with an expiring contract, the only question that remains is whether or not he is with the Twins after July.

Nelson Cruz: 10.5 Barrels/Plate Appearance %

Like Simmons, Cruz struggled mightily in the month of May, but this was on the heels of a torrid stretch at season’s start. Only five AL batters have a higher Barrels/PA % than Cruz and that isn’t the only Statcast metric where he ranks near the top of the league. He ranks well in barrel % (Top 7%), max exit velocity (Top 1%), and hard hit % (top 5%). His xwOBA over his last 100 plate appearances is dropping faster than Rob Refsynder running into the outfield wall in Baltimore. Is age catching up to Cruz or will he be able to solve his offensive woes?

Which one of these Statcast numbers stands out the most to you? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[h2oface]

I am amazed that Simmons rates so high defensively this year. I have watched him make more than the 5 errors he actually got officially, and make some real bonehead plays and decisions to go with the real good ones.

It is so easy for people to sell out on Cruz with the "has his age finally caught up with him?" Interesting to see he is actually one of the top hitters on the year so far. But carry on with the cheap shots. Everyone has some slump time. If you come out on top even with the slump, you are doing pretty fine.

[hybridbear]

I've also seen Simmons make some really poor defensive plays so it's interesting to see his OAA being so high. I hope Garver & Arraez will be back soon! These stats show how much they're missed in the lineup. Thanks for writing such a cool article with the statcast metrics!

[umterp23]

Stat Cast I care about:  22-34, 6th worst record in MLB, 12 games under .500.  All other stuff is whipped cream on rotten cherry

[mikelink45]

35 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Stat Cast I care about:  22-34, 6th worst record in MLB, 12 games under .500.  All other stuff is whipped cream on rotten cherry

How true. It's like exit velocity and distance they don't add any runs they just measure what happened. Wins are the ultimate measurement.

[Doctor Gast]

Simmons and his importance to the team has been so underrated by twins fans that who want to correlate bats to defense and never figure range in as defensive importance. Until covid bit, his bat was was close to Arraez. I'd hate to imagine where'd be without him.

[Whitey333]

This is ridiculous!  Digging deep through totally obscure statcast b.s.  most people realize wins and losses are what matters.  Most of the analytic "statistics" are mainly used by agents to try and get more money for their agents.  I am almost amused when I try and look up a new analytic stat and how they are supposedly so importantant.  Doesnt batting average, on base percentage, home runs, RBIs, risp mean anything anymore?  That's what used to be important.  Apparantly not anymore

[21bdp21]

5 hours ago, h2oface said:

I am amazed that Simmons rates so high defensively this year. I have watched him make more than the 5 errors he actually got officially, and make some real bonehead plays and decisions to go with the real good ones.

 

There is a issue with fielding errors. If a player isn't good enough to even get to the ball they won't get an error. If the player is good enough and goes for those tough plays they might get more errors. Bad decisions are different and should be called out

[umterp23]

Situational hitting to me is an area of concern for me.  If it isn't a homer to score runs, we are in trouble.  I don't have the time to analyze the run production but driving in runs other than a HR seems be severely lacking.  I could be off base, but clutch hitting doesn't seem to be there

[Trov]

2 hours ago, hybridbear said:

I've also seen Simmons make some really poor defensive plays so it's interesting to see his OAA being so high. I hope Garver & Arraez will be back soon! These stats show how much they're missed in the lineup. Thanks for writing such a cool article with the statcast metrics!

In terms of Simmons, this is why metrics for defense are good to look at.  Many fans will see what they see as bad plays, but not pay attention to the many good plays that seem routine, but compared to the rest of the league are actually very good.  Errors are a terrible way to judge any player on defense.  The best defenders will many times have the most errors because they get to balls others would not.  The official score never takes into account the fact that very few players would have even had a chance on a play.  They have looked at some players that win gold gloves because they have low errors and make some good plays, but when the metrics came out the player was considered below average defender.  Derick Jeter late in career is one of them.  

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

This is ridiculous!  Digging deep through totally obscure statcast b.s.  most people realize wins and losses are what matters.  Most of the analytic "statistics" are mainly used by agents to try and get more money for their agents.  I am almost amused when I try and look up a new analytic stat and how they are supposedly so importantant.  Doesnt batting average, on base percentage, home runs, RBIs, risp mean anything anymore?  That's what used to be important.  Apparantly not anymore

The fact that the article only points 4 players should be a sign that this is a bad team, and the article isn't pushing any ideas that are "obscuring" anything. Individual players can have good seasons even when their team as a whole is playing like crap.

[Dodecahedron]

7 hours ago, h2oface said:

I am amazed that Simmons rates so high defensively this year. I have watched him make more than the 5 errors he actually got officially, and make some real bonehead plays and decisions to go with the real good ones.

It is so easy for people to sell out on Cruz with the "has his age finally caught up with him?" Interesting to see he is actually one of the top hitters on the year so far. But carry on with the cheap shots. Everyone has some slump time. If you come out on top even with the slump, you are doing pretty fine.

Defensive metrics have the wrong approach.  This should be the hierarchy of valuable-to-least-valuable to measure:

1. Error
2. Not an out
3. Out

In other words, defensive metrics have it backwards.  Just like how a home run is not the same thing as a single, an error is not the same as getting an out or even not getting an out.

Every fielder gets an out, what, I'm guessing 90% of the time?  Higher?  There's the baseline -- measure what happens in the rest of the plays and the how.

[dbminn]

13 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Defensive metrics have the wrong approach.  This should be the hierarchy of valuable-to-least-valuable to measure:

1. Error
2. Not an out
3. Out

In other words, defensive metrics have it backwards.  Just like how a home run is not the same thing as a single, an error is not the same as getting an out or even not getting an out.

Every fielder gets an out, what, I'm guessing 90% of the time?  Higher?  There's the baseline -- measure what happens in the rest of the plays and the how.

Outs are the most important measure of defense. Simmons gets outs on plays that other shortstops can't due to his range and arm. This year, his above-average plays have well exceeded his errors. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

19 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Defensive metrics have the wrong approach.  This should be the hierarchy of valuable-to-least-valuable to measure:

1. Error
2. Not an out
3. Out

In other words, defensive metrics have it backwards.  Just like how a home run is not the same thing as a single, an error is not the same as getting an out or even not getting an out.

Every fielder gets an out, what, I'm guessing 90% of the time?  Higher?  There's the baseline -- measure what happens in the rest of the plays and the how.

That's what defensive metrics already do. Notice that the metric here is "Outs Above Average" -- the average is the ~90% of plays converted into outs.

[Dodecahedron]

54 minutes ago, spycake said:

That's what defensive metrics already do. Notice that the metric here is "Outs Above Average" -- the average is the ~90% of plays converted into outs.

That's part of it.  However, an error is more likely to affect the outcome of a game than an out, or even a base hit.  Errors should be weighted highest, not disregarded.  A fielder's choice is good, but it's not the same as a regular out.  A base hit is a worse outcome than an out, and it should also be weighted higher than an out.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

22 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

That's part of it.  However, an error is more likely to affect the outcome of a game than an out, or even a base hit.  Errors should be weighted highest, not disregarded.  A fielder's choice is good, but it's not the same as a regular out.  A base hit is a worse outcome than an out, and it should also be weighted higher than an out.

 

DRS and UZR are both defensive metrics that include errors. OAA is just one that doesn't. They tell us different things, just like AVG and SLG, etc.

Fangraphs even breaks UZR down into component parts Range Runs ("RngR") and Error Runs ("ErrR" -- that's a lot of R's!) and Double Play Runs (DPR) (plus ARM for outfielders). Indeed, Simmons is doing much worse in ErrR than RngR so far this season, although it's still a pretty small/unreliable sample:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=220&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=25,d

Also, not all errors are equal. If a player makes an 1-base error on a ball that only 10% of his peers can normally convert into an out anyway, then it's not remotely close in impact to either of Celestino's errors last night, for example.

[Dodecahedron]

7 minutes ago, spycake said:

Also, not all errors are equal. If a player makes an 1-base error on a ball that only 10% of his peers can normally convert into an out anyway, then it's not remotely close in impact to either of Celestino's errors last night, for example.

False equivalency.  The impact of an error to the baseball game does not depend upon the % chance of making the play.

On an unrelated note, how many errors are charged when a system predicts a player only had a 10% chance to make the play?  I would argue if a system is spitting out something like that, there is something wrong with the system.  

The theory in football is that if you can touch a ball, you can catch it.  Whether or not 90% of other players can make it to a fly ball or not doesn't matter.  If Player X can get in position but then still have a miscue, it's still the miscue that matters.  If a superhero fielder can reach any spot on the field in 2 seconds, but drops everything that hits his glove, what truly matters about that player?  

[Otto von Ballpark]

20 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

False equivalency.  The impact of an error to the baseball game does not depend upon the % chance of making the play.

On an unrelated note, how many errors are charged when a system predicts a player only had a 10% chance to make the play?  I would argue if a system is spitting out something like that, there is something wrong with the system.  

The theory in football is that if you can touch a ball, you can catch it.  Whether or not 90% of other players can make it to a fly ball or not doesn't matter.  If Player X can get in position but then still have a miscue, it's still the miscue that matters.  If a superhero fielder can reach any spot on the field in 2 seconds, but drops everything that hits his glove, what truly matters about that player?  

I wasn't making any equivalency, I just shared one specific example. There are obviously different degrees of errors, and the most benign errors may not be any worse than simply failing to record the out. (FYI, I edited my post above to show the error breakdown of UZR at Fangraphs, if you are interested.)

Errors are judged by the official scorer, which is an entirely different system than DRS/UZR/Statcast judging probability of outs. Not sure anything is wrong with that, but they tell us different things and they may not always line up.

If the superhero fielder drops everything, obviously he's worthless. But what about a superhero fielder who only drops a few more than the average player? Then the superhero may have, say, 5 more errors by the official scorer, but you wouldn't replace him based on that if he was responsible for a net reduction in baserunners/advancement compared to the average fielder.

In reality, with non-superhero players, these seem like marginal concerns compared to offensive outcomes. But when 90% of plays are routine like you say, the marginal concerns around the remaining 10% are magnified. And it takes a lot longer to amass a meaningful sample from those 10% of plays too.

[h2oface]

5 hours ago, Trov said:

In terms of Simmons, this is why metrics for defense are good to look at.  Many fans will see what they see as bad plays, but not pay attention to the many good plays that seem routine, but compared to the rest of the league are actually very good.  Errors are a terrible way to judge any player on defense.  The best defenders will many times have the most errors because they get to balls others would not.  The official score never takes into account the fact that very few players would have even had a chance on a play.  They have looked at some players that win gold gloves because they have low errors and make some good plays, but when the metrics came out the player was considered below average defender.  Derick Jeter late in career is one of them.  

I mostly disagree. I also acknowledged Simmons "real good ones". But the scoring is atrocious. The official scorers now give hits away like candy to grandchildren. So many errors that all players should get to and touch but don't make the play are scored hits. Same with throwing errors sometimes. Official scorers are charity workers when it comes to scoring and they give far too many hits and don't score the poor defense, and not the other way around. Certainly they include range in that, and don't score them as errors, either, for the rangey players.

[Platoon]

RBI’s and BA don’t mean anything. There are all kinds of ways to get on base besides hits. Like walks, HBP, or when the catcher misses that 2 strike slider outside the other batters box you swung at trying to hit a 5 run HR. As for RBI’s the runners should be able to figure out how to score without someone else’s help. 

[mikelink45]

On 6/4/2021 at 6:41 AM, Doctor Gast said:

Simmons and his importance to the team has been so underrated by twins fans that who want to correlate bats to defense and never figure range in as defensive importance. Until covid bit, his bat was was close to Arraez. I'd hate to imagine where'd be without him.

Last place

[Doctor Gast]

21 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Last place

It's one thing battling to getting out of last place with hope and being hopelessly in last behind despised Tigers.

Simmons keeps us in the game and occasionally winning a close one. Adversely getting blown away when he's not in the game. Hopelessness is a difficult hole to dig out of. And if we're not in the game who'd want to watch that humiliation.

[h2oface]

Simmons another error tonight, this time just not stepping on second on the DP. Is that 6 errors now (4 total in the game, Pineda, Polanco, Astudillo, and the defensive wizard not focusing, Simmons)