18 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

“They've (the FO) presided over subtraction of several good players?”  I don’t think you gave much thought to this statement?  Let’s look at the players they let go.

Position Players: 

Eddie Rosario’s current wRC+ is .76 and his Fwar is .1.  Ehire Adrianza’s current wRC+ is 74 and his Fwar is negative.  Marwin Gonzales has a current wRC+ of 67 and a negative Fwar.

Relief Pitchers:

Matt Wisler and Sergio Romo have an ERA over 6 and 0 Fwar.  Tyler Clippard is out.  They let one good RP (Trevor May) go. 

Starting Pitchers:

Jake Odorizzi has an ERA is over 7.  Granted, Rich Hill is have a decent year but it’s pretty hard to criticize the FO for not bringing back a 41+ y/o SP with injury concerns.

To criticize when your solution was JBJ is hard to understand.  He has absolutely sucked.  His Fwar is -.6 and his wRC+ is 40 and he cost $12M with a player option for another year at $12M.  Where Brantley is concerned, he has been decent but corner OF is not our problem even with all the injuries and why would we want to block the position where we have the most depth, especially for a 2 WAR player at $12M.  Your solution is an absolute waste of $24M.  JBJ would hurt the ream for 2 years and the $12M on Brantley would be much better spent elsewhere.  Because they did not follow your suggested plan, they could spend and $24M next year on pitching or perhaps a high profile SS.

JBJ was good before that, last offseason he represented a big potential upgrade over Cave. You’re using 20-20 hindsight where I was suggesting names at the time that would have given the Twins a much better team if they played to past norms.. I’m just saying they replaced effective players with lesser ones. Eddie Rosario led the Twins in RBI over Cruz in 2019 and had 30+ HR. I think he was an overall competent OF with a big weapon that won some games in his throwing arm. Lus Eddie in a weak lineup is on pace for close to 90 RBIs, is hitting about league average and stolen 6 bases in 7 attempts. They replaced his production with Jake Cave’s utter haplessness. Brantley or Springer would have been the winning play.

You say corner OF isn’t our problem but a wealth of AB went to sub .200 Cave and barely .200 Kepler, so I have to disagree with your statement. Had those AB given to Cave been given to Brantley or another proven hitter acquired by Falvey, we’d be in a lot better shape. 

Why minimize Rich Hill who you say is having a decent year? He has a 0.98 WHIP and 3.05 ERA. Replace Shoemaker with him and just that would make us close to .500. I take issue with you referring to Hill’s season as decent. It’s excellent and Falvey let him walk while resigning another over 40 year old. 

They let Gibson go and he’s 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.005 WHIP. Replace Happ and Shoemaker with two players that Falvey let go in Gibson and Hill and we’re probably above .500 right now. You conveniently left Gibson out of the discussion though I did find his late 2019 painful, I’m just using the same 20-20 you are on Bradley and all the others.

Trevor May also counts. He was too good a pitcher to let go and replace with bargain basement types.  He’s having a decent year and would have helped the very same bullpen that is a big reason we’re 12 games below .500.

Last, Falvey has whiffed on every potential big name pitcher out there the last two offseasons but yet said they had a goal the last couple of seasons of winning the World Series. How can you do that without being aggressive enough to sign 1 or 2 of the plethora of strong pitchers available the last few years. They’ve been scrambling with unworthy rotations due to missing on so many game changing pitchers.

They also let go of Eduardo Escobar who has had a great year since they  traded him and Ryan Pressley’s return is questionable though it may turn out. 

Last they let two players who were a big part of the Bomba squad’s HR record walk  away in Schoop and Cron who have both had at least strong stretches since they left.

For me, I take solace in the apparently bright futures of Kirilloff and Larnach and of Nick Gordon. Hoping they keep Buxton and Berrios. 

 

 

3 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

JBJ was good before that, last offseason he represented a big potential upgrade over Cave. You’re using 20-20 hindsight where I was suggesting names at the time that would have given the Twins a much better team if they played to past norms.. I’m just saying they replaced effective players with lesser ones. Eddie Rosario led the Twins in RBI over Cruz in 2019 and had 30+ HR. I think he was an overall competent OF with a big weapon that won some games in his throwing arm. Lus Eddie in a weak lineup is on pace for close to 90 RBIs, is hitting about league average and stolen 6 bases in 7 attempts. They replaced his production with Jake Cave’s utter haplessness. Brantley or Springer would have been the winning play.

You say corner OF isn’t our problem but a wealth of AB went to sub .200 Cave and barely .200 Kepler, so I have to disagree with your statement. Had those AB given to Cave been given to Brantley or another proven hitter acquired by Falvey, we’d be in a lot better shape. 

Why minimize Rich Hill who you say is having a decent year? He has a 0.98 WHIP and 3.05 ERA. Replace Shoemaker with him and just that would make us close to .500. I take issue with you referring to Hill’s season as decent. It’s excellent and Falvey let him walk while resigning another over 40 year old. 

They let Gibson go and he’s 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.005 WHIP. Replace Happ and Shoemaker with two players that Falvey let go in Gibson and Hill and we’re probably above .500 right now. You conveniently left Gibson out of the discussion though I did find his late 2019 painful, I’m just using the same 20-20 you are on Bradley and all the others.

Trevor May also counts. He was too good a pitcher to let go and replace with bargain basement types.  He’s having a decent year and would have helped the very same bullpen that is a big reason we’re 12 games below .500.

Last, Falvey has whiffed on every potential big name pitcher out there the last two offseasons but yet said they had a goal the last couple of seasons of winning the World Series. How can you do that without being aggressive enough to sign 1 or 2 of the plethora of strong pitchers available the last few years. They’ve been scrambling with unworthy rotations due to missing on so many game changing pitchers.

They also let go of Eduardo Escobar who has had a great year since they  traded him and Ryan Pressley’s return is questionable though it may turn out. 

Last they let two players who were a big part of the Bomba squad’s HR record walk  away in Schoop and Cron who have both had at least strong stretches since they left.

For me, I take solace in the apparently bright futures of Kirilloff and Larnach and of Nick Gordon. Hoping they keep Buxton and Berrios. 

 

 

For starters to complain the FO was inept because the players they brought in have not panned out and then say they made a mistake not bring in JBJ who has been absolutely miserable because he was good in the past is some really bent logic.

Yes, Rich Hill has been good but had they brought him in there would have been a lot of people complaining “why are we bringing in 41 YO SPs”.  In hindsight he has been good.  I simply suggested it is understandable the FO passed on a SP the wrong side of 40.  They already made that leap with Cruz.  Two 40+ guys is a stretch.

The guys the Twins brought in all had success in the past.  To say Eddie Rosario was good in the past but the guys the Twins brought in suck THIS YEAR is an absolute refusal to acknowledge the situation.  Rosario has a wRC+ around 70,and playing at replacement level.  You can’t complain the guys the brought in are not performing and then complain they did not keep guys who are performing horrible THIS YEAR as examples of their mistakes.

Also, guys become free agents and want to go elsewhere.  Do we need to go down the list of top free agents that were not retained by their teams the last 5 years including Mookie Betts.  Boston with a top 5 payroll did not resign him.  Houston lost Cole and on and on.  Add to this that this is not the most attractive destination in MLB and we don’t have the budget to pay whatever it takes to get FAs.  We need to accept the fact a dozen other teams have more payroll dollars.  We are all going to be quite distort id we get frustrated when outbid by teams with more money.  When we get outbid by Milwaukee or Cleveland, you will have a point.

BTW … Brantley is a .8 WAR so to say we would be in a lotter better shape (you guessed it) makes no sense.  You also fail to acknowledge that Brantley cost $12M.  Kirilloff / Larnach + $11M to spend elsewhere is a MUCH smarter move than signing Michael Brantley.  We simply have drastically different thought processes.  You are welcome to your opinion but I am really glad we don’t have JBJ and Brantley.

On 6/3/2021 at 1:24 PM, Mike Sixel said:

This fascination with someone to blame is an interesting phenomena ..... there may or may not be someone to blame, but this idea that firing a person or two will fix things is really interesting. They won the division two years in a row....maybe that tells us something too....maybe this year is just a bad year, where everything goes wrong and unlucky and there is no fault or reason other than stuff happens. Most things in life don't have A cause, or meaning. They just are. Our human need for their to be a reason for things happening is really interesting to me.

I saw the title of this thread and was bothered by it. Your post summed up my feelings and made quick work of this thread for me.

Blame is boring. Stuff happens get over it and yourself.

I think a fair question to ask the decision makers in the Minnesota Twins organization is; "What was your goal for the 2021 season?" PR goals stated to the press don't count. For their sake, I bet the behind the scenes goal was simply to field a respectable team but not a serious "deep into playoffs" team. It almost seems like they are hoping that 2 AL Central titles merit a honeymoon season in which they can give the younger players enough playing time to see what they really have down the road. It is obvious that Sano and Buxton are not the mainstays they hoped they would be and free agency acquisitions and trades are a crap shoot. So who will form the core of the team in 2022 and beyond? I hope this season provides some answers.

5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

JBJ was good before that, last offseason he represented a big potential upgrade over Cave. You’re using 20-20 hindsight where I was suggesting names at the time that would have given the Twins a much better team if they played to past norms.. I’m just saying they replaced effective players with lesser ones. Eddie Rosario led the Twins in RBI over Cruz in 2019 and had 30+ HR. I think he was an overall competent OF with a big weapon that won some games in his throwing arm. Lus Eddie in a weak lineup is on pace for close to 90 RBIs, is hitting about league average and stolen 6 bases in 7 attempts. They replaced his production with Jake Cave’s utter haplessness. Brantley or Springer would have been the winning play.

You say corner OF isn’t our problem but a wealth of AB went to sub .200 Cave and barely .200 Kepler, so I have to disagree with your statement. Had those AB given to Cave been given to Brantley or another proven hitter acquired by Falvey, we’d be in a lot better shape. 

Why minimize Rich Hill who you say is having a decent year? He has a 0.98 WHIP and 3.05 ERA. Replace Shoemaker with him and just that would make us close to .500. I take issue with you referring to Hill’s season as decent. It’s excellent and Falvey let him walk while resigning another over 40 year old. 

They let Gibson go and he’s 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.005 WHIP. Replace Happ and Shoemaker with two players that Falvey let go in Gibson and Hill and we’re probably above .500 right now. You conveniently left Gibson out of the discussion though I did find his late 2019 painful, I’m just using the same 20-20 you are on Bradley and all the others.

Trevor May also counts. He was too good a pitcher to let go and replace with bargain basement types.  He’s having a decent year and would have helped the very same bullpen that is a big reason we’re 12 games below .500.

Last, Falvey has whiffed on every potential big name pitcher out there the last two offseasons but yet said they had a goal the last couple of seasons of winning the World Series. How can you do that without being aggressive enough to sign 1 or 2 of the plethora of strong pitchers available the last few years. They’ve been scrambling with unworthy rotations due to missing on so many game changing pitchers.

They also let go of Eduardo Escobar who has had a great year since they  traded him and Ryan Pressley’s return is questionable though it may turn out. 

Last they let two players who were a big part of the Bomba squad’s HR record walk  away in Schoop and Cron who have both had at least strong stretches since they left.

For me, I take solace in the apparently bright futures of Kirilloff and Larnach and of Nick Gordon. Hoping they keep Buxton and Berrios. 

 

 

JBJ has had a positive OPS+ in 3 of 7 seasons for his entire career. 2 of those seasons he played fewer than 100 games (74 in 2015 and 55 last year). 2016 is his other above 100 OPS+ year. His current OPS+ is 38. Jake Cave has an OPS+ over 100 in 2 of his 3 years. His current OPS+ is 44. Your assessment that JBJ would have been a "big potential upgrade" isn't based in reality. JBJ has a better glove, but he is no better hitter than Cave and signing him, or Brantley, to block Kirilloff and/or Larnach made no sense before the season. Especially for the money they'd have had to pay those 2. Paying Eddie 10+ mil to block Kirilloff and/or Larnach would have been a similarly poor asset management decision. 

As for the missing on big name pitchers, if your expectation is they sign a Cole or Scherzer type you're going to be eternally disappointed. It's never happening. But if you're concerned about the likes of MadBum and those type guys, go look at what their teams are getting for their money. You'd just be on here complaining that they picked the wrong big money guy. 

They didn't "let go of Eduardo Escobar," they traded a guy who wouldn't be here when they became contenders and got Jhoan Duran back as part of the package. Would you rather have Josh Donaldson and Jhoan Duran or Escobar? Schoop and Cron? That's who you want to hitch your wagon to? Cron was awful in Detroit last year and has an OPS+ of 110 in Colorado this year. Schoop was replaced by Arraez while he was still with the Twins, but you want him here to back up Arraez and Polanco at 2B? 

You suggest others are using 20-20 hindsight, but the team you're suggesting they should have built is ignoring, or revising, history. There's no place on this team for Escobar, Schoop, or Cron. That trio is not better (and wasn't when the decisions were made) than Donaldson, Polanco/Arraez, and Sano/Kirilloff. Cuz those are the guys they'd replace. And JBJ and Brantley are not better than Kirilloff and Larnach. Especially for the money difference.

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

JBJ has had a positive OPS+ in 3 of 7 seasons for his entire career. 2 of those seasons he played fewer than 100 games (74 in 2015 and 55 last year). 2016 is his other above 100 OPS+ year. His current OPS+ is 38. Jake Cave has an OPS+ over 100 in 2 of his 3 years. His current OPS+ is 44. Your assessment that JBJ would have been a "big potential upgrade" isn't based in reality. JBJ has a better glove, but he is no better hitter than Cave and signing him, or Brantley, to block Kirilloff and/or Larnach made no sense before the season. Especially for the money they'd have had to pay those 2. Paying Eddie 10+ mil to block Kirilloff and/or Larnach would have been a similarly poor asset management decision. 

As for the missing on big name pitchers, if your expectation is they sign a Cole or Scherzer type you're going to be eternally disappointed. It's never happening. But if you're concerned about the likes of MadBum and those type guys, go look at what their teams are getting for their money. You'd just be on here complaining that they picked the wrong big money guy. 

They didn't "let go of Eduardo Escobar," they traded a guy who wouldn't be here when they became contenders and got Jhoan Duran back as part of the package. Would you rather have Josh Donaldson and Jhoan Duran or Escobar? Schoop and Cron? That's who you want to hitch your wagon to? Cron was awful in Detroit last year and has an OPS+ of 110 in Colorado this year. Schoop was replaced by Arraez while he was still with the Twins, but you want him here to back up Arraez and Polanco at 2B? 

You suggest others are using 20-20 hindsight, but the team you're suggesting they should have built is ignoring, or revising, history. There's no place on this team for Escobar, Schoop, or Cron. That trio is not better (and wasn't when the decisions were made) than Donaldson, Polanco/Arraez, and Sano/Kirilloff. Cuz those are the guys they'd replace. And JBJ and Brantley are not better than Kirilloff and Larnach. Especially for the money difference.

This is a great post to bring us all back to the reality of how things were and are. It’s easy to hindsight it, so thanks for the actual research. 

I do wish we had made an offer to Trevor May, though. He’s the only one I think it made sense to keep and is the only one I question letting walk. 
 

 

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

For starters to complain the FO was inept because the players they brought in have not panned out and then say they made a mistake not bring in JBJ who has been absolutely miserable because he was good in the past is some really bent logic.

Yes, Rich Hill has been good but had they brought him in there would have been a lot of people complaining “why are we bringing in 41 YO SPs”.  In hindsight he has been good.  I simply suggested it is understandable the FO passed on a SP the wrong side of 40.  They already made that leap with Cruz.  Two 40+ guys is a stretch.

The guys the Twins brought in all had success in the past.  To say Eddie Rosario was good in the past but the guys the Twins brought in suck THIS YEAR is an absolute refusal to acknowledge the situation.  Rosario has a wRC+ around 70,and playing at replacement level.  You can’t complain the guys the brought in are not performing and then complain they did not keep guys who are performing horrible THIS YEAR as examples of their mistakes.

Also, guys become free agents and want to go elsewhere.  Do we need to go down the list of top free agents that were not retained by their teams the last 5 years including Mookie Betts.  Boston with a top 5 payroll did not resign him.  Houston lost Cole and on and on.  Add to this that this is not the most attractive destination in MLB and we don’t have the budget to pay whatever it takes to get FAs.  We need to accept the fact a dozen other teams have more payroll dollars.  We are all going to be quite distort id we get frustrated when outbid by teams with more money.  When we get outbid by Milwaukee or Cleveland, you will have a point.

BTW … Brantley is a .8 WAR so to say we would be in a lotter better shape (you guessed it) makes no sense.  You also fail to acknowledge that Brantley cost $12M.  Kirilloff / Larnach + $11M to spend elsewhere is a MUCH smarter move than signing Michael Brantley.  We simply have drastically different thought processes.  You are welcome to your opinion but I am really glad we don’t have JBJ and Brantley.

I agree with most of this, except the "Rich Hill is 40" part. They signed 38 yr old JA Happ, I doubt age was much of a factor. 

For that matter, in the larger sense, questioning their pitching decisions is absolutely valid. 

Yes, people would have complained about signing Rich Hill, the same people complained when he was signed in the first place after all.  Not liking Hill was certainly the majority opinion.  However, almost no one complained about the Shoemaker signing at the time, and heck people still say they understand why he was signed.

However, no one is suggesting this is why the Twins passed on Hill or signed Shoemaker.  Only they know the reasons why.  Neither the front office nor Baldelli seem to make "popular" choices, they are making choices that they think are the best for the team.  This is good, not many are born in the right circles who can succeed by simply following the herd, but this doesn't change the fact that the crew made some very bad decisions in the past year!

3 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Yes, people would have complained about signing Rich Hill, the same people complained when he was signed in the first place after all.  Not liking Hill was certainly the majority opinion.  However, almost no one complained about the Shoemaker signing at the time, and heck people still say they understand why he was signed.

However, no one is suggesting this is why the Twins passed on Hill or signed Shoemaker.  Only they know the reasons why.  Neither the front office nor Baldelli seem to make "popular" choices, they are making choices that they think are the best for the team.  This is good, not many are born in the right circles who can succeed by simply following the herd, but this doesn't change the fact that the crew made some very bad decisions in the past year!

The FO just botched free agents signings this offseason...Shoemaker, Colombe, Happ.   Just awful.  Robles has been decent.  Simmons, while he is still well above average defensively, he appears to be more of a complimentary player in my opinion.  Cruz is starting to show his age...his power numbers the last 6 weeks are way down.   The money spent on Simmons and Cruz, in hindsight, would have been best spent on pitching.  I really hope ALL of the FA dollars spent in this offseason is spent on pitching. 1 starter, 2-3 high quality relievers.  Let everything else come from trades or the farm system.  No more reclamation projects like Shoemaker or 38 old washed up meatballers like Happ. 

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

JBJ has had a positive OPS+ in 3 of 7 seasons for his entire career. 2 of those seasons he played fewer than 100 games (74 in 2015 and 55 last year). 2016 is his other above 100 OPS+ year. His current OPS+ is 38. Jake Cave has an OPS+ over 100 in 2 of his 3 years. His current OPS+ is 44. Your assessment that JBJ would have been a "big potential upgrade" isn't based in reality. JBJ has a better glove, but he is no better hitter than Cave and signing him, or Brantley, to block Kirilloff and/or Larnach made no sense before the season. Especially for the money they'd have had to pay those 2. Paying Eddie 10+ mil to block Kirilloff and/or Larnach would have been a similarly poor asset management decision. 

As for the missing on big name pitchers, if your expectation is they sign a Cole or Scherzer type you're going to be eternally disappointed. It's never happening. But if you're concerned about the likes of MadBum and those type guys, go look at what their teams are getting for their money. You'd just be on here complaining that they picked the wrong big money guy. 

They didn't "let go of Eduardo Escobar," they traded a guy who wouldn't be here when they became contenders and got Jhoan Duran back as part of the package. Would you rather have Josh Donaldson and Jhoan Duran or Escobar? Schoop and Cron? That's who you want to hitch your wagon to? Cron was awful in Detroit last year and has an OPS+ of 110 in Colorado this year. Schoop was replaced by Arraez while he was still with the Twins, but you want him here to back up Arraez and Polanco at 2B? 

You suggest others are using 20-20 hindsight, but the team you're suggesting they should have built is ignoring, or revising, history. There's no place on this team for Escobar, Schoop, or Cron. That trio is not better (and wasn't when the decisions were made) than Donaldson, Polanco/Arraez, and Sano/Kirilloff. Cuz those are the guys they'd replace. And JBJ and Brantley are not better than Kirilloff and Larnach. Especially for the money difference.

JBJ slash 2020, the relevant season for last offseason .283./.354/.450. Oh and let go of Lance Lynn too. Lynn, Gibson, Hill and May and where are we now? It sounds like you think the FO has no responsibility for this collapse. We just disagree.

The JBJ discussion is eugh. He is a guy signed to earn a $13 Million in two years. The Twins (And no sane/grounded team) would pay that for a 4th outfielder who did not contribute at the plate. Cave is... well eugh is the kind thing to say but he gets league minimum. No contest for a team with 2 top outfield prospect, an MVP in centre, Solid Kepler and then Arreaz who they also want to get playing time for. Injuries make a fool out of teams and the Twins over rely on utility but if I am building the roster I prioritise cheap to stretch the budget (The size of which should be another debate). 

With Rich Hill I wonder if the Twins had an offer on the table because I can see a guy choosing the Rays. You get to live in Florida where you might already have a house, lower taxes, and then the Rays analytics/ strategy could elongate a guy like Hill by a few years. You won't go deep into game, you will be put into favourable situations. Would the Twins do that? I mean they trotted out Happ to get slaughtered by the White Sox in consecutive games when the numbers are out there that they devour lefties. He entered Chicago in May with a 1.91 ERA. Take out those starts and he has a 3.7. I don't have a problem with signing happ to be the lefty in your rotation. I do with the strict allegiance to the rotation that left him in ****ty situations. Then with Shoemaker I think they got him and Dobnak the wrong way around. I get the veteran wants to play in the MLB but how many teams were in on him? Would an incentive laden minor league deal have helped him have more development time off two injury hit seasons. He has looked good at times and I'm sure the signing was because there was a hint of a gem for the pitching staff to develop. They just didn't have time. Screw it, sign him and say he got a blister in Spring so he can rehab for a month or so. Instead you have Dobnak of a dominant Spring starting off as what? A closer against the Brewers? A slop guy against the Tigers? Doesn't make sense. But were they wrong to sign him? Other than it screwing up Dobnak, he is a cheap pitcher with upside because of the injuries. Start him in the long role and see. 

Heck, I even see why they signed Colome. A guy available for half his 2020 salary after a dominant year. They thought they were getting deal of the decade. Simmons was a stop gap until Lewis and a Knee Jerk to Polanco's playoff defence. It all made sense but didn't come off. 

Do the front office deserve blame? Yeah they have screwed up stuff like not pursing Hill enough or Bargain hunting for Colome and letting May walk. But honestly I think somewhere in the organization there is a cultural problem. How else to you explain choking in the playoffs or not scoring runnings in scoring position. When the pressure is on the Twins shrink. Which is the story of the season. Start off looking good and then lose the first game on a gimmicky walkoff after not being able to score clutch runs. You win that series and the second one and things look good through the home opener. 5-2. The third loss against Seattle on the third walkoff. Then losing the next day from being bad and suddenly its 5-4, Then you meet the hot Red Sox and leave the first home stand 6-7. Another loss then a good start has been a bad start 6-8. Sit around with Covid busting up the roster and stewing on the bad start. Sweep in Oakland including another walk off and its done. The team are struggling and underpressure so can't come back once they know about it. If the pressure doesn't build with the gimmicky losses building up then the they roll on through to the playoffs to lose first round again when the pressure starts. And I think the reasons go through the organization's history to players, coaching , and front office. They have no players with WS rings. Outside Maeda with English as a second language, Happ with 2.2 innings 12 years ago no one has world series experience except Nelson Cruz, who lose in the thing twice. And Cruz has reliably been the best pressure hitter with the only RBIs against the Astros last year. (Rocco also played in a world series and also lost it). 

23 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

For starters to complain the FO was inept because the players they brought in have not panned out and then say they made a mistake not bring in JBJ who has been absolutely miserable because he was good in the past is some really bent logic.

Yes, Rich Hill has been good but had they brought him in there would have been a lot of people complaining “why are we bringing in 41 YO SPs”.  In hindsight he has been good.  I simply suggested it is understandable the FO passed on a SP the wrong side of 40.  They already made that leap with Cruz.  Two 40+ guys is a stretch.

The guys the Twins brought in all had success in the past.  To say Eddie Rosario was good in the past but the guys the Twins brought in suck THIS YEAR is an absolute refusal to acknowledge the situation.  Rosario has a wRC+ around 70,and playing at replacement level.  You can’t complain the guys the brought in are not performing and then complain they did not keep guys who are performing horrible THIS YEAR as examples of their mistakes.

Also, guys become free agents and want to go elsewhere.  Do we need to go down the list of top free agents that were not retained by their teams the last 5 years including Mookie Betts.  Boston with a top 5 payroll did not resign him.  Houston lost Cole and on and on.  Add to this that this is not the most attractive destination in MLB and we don’t have the budget to pay whatever it takes to get FAs.  We need to accept the fact a dozen other teams have more payroll dollars.  We are all going to be quite distort id we get frustrated when outbid by teams with more money.  When we get outbid by Milwaukee or Cleveland, you will have a point.

BTW … Brantley is a .8 WAR so to say we would be in a lotter better shape (you guessed it) makes no sense.  You also fail to acknowledge that Brantley cost $12M.  Kirilloff / Larnach + $11M to spend elsewhere is a MUCH smarter move than signing Michael Brantley.  We simply have drastically different thought processes.  You are welcome to your opinion but I am really glad we don’t have JBJ and Brantley.

I just read both our posts and I agree that we see things a different way. I think that we could understand each other better if we talked in a method of communication a little more immediate than a blog or forum.

That being said, this is a wonderful web site. I love Twins Daily. Please don’t mistake my post. I love the Twins with a burning passion. Some of my views may be influenced by being an avid fan during the Calvin Griffith years and experiencing the pain of all the player losses once free agency hit. I think we may see things differently also because I grew up loving baseball when there were no SABR stats and I’m skeptical of them now, For example, In Eddie Rosario’s case, I saw an xWAR calculation that had him as a 3.1 in 2019. Then the formula docked him all the way down to 0.9 for defense. I thought and think that’s preposterous.

Anyway, let’s agree we both want a strong Twins showing the rest of the year, whether that be by the veterans or we take heart in performances by players like Jose Miranda, Duran and Balazovic among others. I think the Wichita Wind Surge are very exciting and have my juices flowing. I see in Miranda a reminder of the young Gary Gaetti that I took great hope in when he was in AA.

I agree to disagree on the FO moves. It did pain me to come to those conclusions because I was as high as anybody on them when they first came in. 

On 6/7/2021 at 9:08 PM, Greglw3 said:

JBJ slash 2020, the relevant season for last offseason .283./.354/.450. Oh and let go of Lance Lynn too. Lynn, Gibson, Hill and May and where are we now? It sounds like you think the FO has no responsibility for this collapse. We just disagree.

So your argument is to ignore his age 23-29 seasons and only worry about his age 30 season? That's exactly how you end up paying someone like JBJ $24m over 2 years for a .157/.226/.285 slash line that he has now. That is not how any front office should work. 2020 is not "the relevant season." They're all relevant. There's plenty of late bloomers, but you're flat out wrong about it ever being a good decision to sign JBJ to that kind of deal. There was never a point in his career that he was worth 12m a year to block players like Kirilloff and Larnach. Never.

Lynn's stats with the Twins: 20 starts, 5.10 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 84 ERA+, 1.63 WHIP, 8.8 Ks/9. He wasn't exactly lighting it up here. You complained earlier about people using 20-20 hindsight, yet here you are claiming they should've known he was better (and he wasn't much better with NY the rest of that year). Right after suggesting using JBJ's 2020 slash line as a determinant of how good he was. So ignore Lynn's most recent stats (at the time) and sign him to a massive extension, but only care about JBJ's most recent stats when signing him? Which is it? Care about recent stats only or don't?

Kyle Gibson's 2020 stats with Texas: 12 starts, 5.35 ERA, 5.39 FIP, 86 ERA+, 1.530 WHIP, 7.8 Ks/9. Can't imagine you were on here complaining about not resigning him after he did that last year. More using 20-20 hindsight.

Rich Hill is 41 years old and has thrown more innings this year than he has since 2018. That was your prediction for him? Falvine should've known that? Check in with me again come postseason time and let me know how Hill is doing.

Trevor May would've been a nice resign and I was hoping they'd do that in the offseason. So of the 5 guys you've mentioned 1 was a signing that made sense at the time. Of course the FO has some responsibility for this collapse. Are you going to give them credit for Garlick and Refsnyder, though? Combined make $1.1 mil and are having much better years than JBJ and his 12m. Refnsyder, Garlick, Kirilloff, Larnach making just over 2m combined and all having better seasons than JBJ or Rosario who make 20m combined. Giving the FO credit for completely nailing those choices or just picking a bad JBJ deal and trying to suggest it would've been smart when there's nothing to suggest it would've been smart?

On 6/7/2021 at 9:08 PM, Greglw3 said:

JBJ slash 2020, the relevant season for last offseason .283./.354/.450. Oh and let go of Lance Lynn too. Lynn, Gibson, Hill and May and where are we now? It sounds like you think the FO has no responsibility for this collapse. We just disagree.

For what it's worth, the FO didn't "let go" of Lance Lynn.  They traded him.  They actually got something in return for him.

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

So your argument is to ignore his age 23-29 seasons and only worry about his age 30 season? That's exactly how you end up paying someone like JBJ $24m over 2 years for a .157/.226/.285 slash line that he has now. That is not how any front office should work. 2020 is not "the relevant season." They're all relevant. There's plenty of late bloomers, but you're flat out wrong about it ever being a good decision to sign JBJ to that kind of deal. There was never a point in his career that he was worth 12m a year to block players like Kirilloff and Larnach. Never.

Lynn's stats with the Twins: 20 starts, 5.10 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 84 ERA+, 1.63 WHIP, 8.8 Ks/9. He wasn't exactly lighting it up here. You complained earlier about people using 20-20 hindsight, yet here you are claiming they should've known he was better (and he wasn't much better with NY the rest of that year). Right after suggesting using JBJ's 2020 slash line as a determinant of how good he was. So ignore Lynn's most recent stats (at the time) and sign him to a massive extension, but only care about JBJ's most recent stats when signing him? Which is it? Care about recent stats only or don't?

Kyle Gibson's 2020 stats with Texas: 12 starts, 5.35 ERA, 5.39 FIP, 86 ERA+, 1.530 WHIP, 7.8 Ks/9. Can't imagine you were on here complaining about not resigning him after he did that last year. More using 20-20 hindsight.

Rich Hill is 41 years old and has thrown more innings this year than he has since 2018. That was your prediction for him? Falvine should've known that? Check in with me again come postseason time and let me know how Hill is doing.

Trevor May would've been a nice resign and I was hoping they'd do that in the offseason. So of the 5 guys you've mentioned 1 was a signing that made sense at the time. Of course the FO has some responsibility for this collapse. Are you going to give them credit for Garlick and Refsnyder, though? Combined make $1.1 mil and are having much better years than JBJ and his 12m. Refnsyder, Garlick, Kirilloff, Larnach making just over 2m combined and all having better seasons than JBJ or Rosario who make 20m combined. Giving the FO credit for completely nailing those choices or just picking a bad JBJ deal and trying to suggest it would've been smart when there's nothing to suggest it would've been smart?

I was only trying to make the point that the team needed MLB ready competition for our existing everyday players. I was most concerned with having someone ready that could replace Buxton and concerned about LF. I looked around and thought Brantley would be affordable for the Twins and would have been the starter on opening day. I see he’s hitting .304 with an .800 OPS and 121 OPS+ as of today. Bradley, while not a favorite was coming off what looked like a breakthrough season. 

I also was concerned about Donaldsons health and Sano’s drop-off and though Maikel Franco of the Royals could help. The idea is that I was trying to address insurance for the problems from Kepler’s BA to Buxton’s health struggles to no established LF, etc. 

My overriding point, backed up by Roy Smalley on his podcast was that the Twins had question marks at every position. And it’s played out that way. SMalley was asked for a win prediction and said 90. When people asked him why, he replied that the Twins had question marks all over the diamond.

I’m only asking for a more aggressive approach from the FO. I do think they are to blame for the drop from 101 wins to the current losing record. Why couldn’t they have been as aggressive as the White Sox? Jim Pohlad has said that he was not averse to raising payroll if FO comes to him and says a guy will help. The area where they have really performed poorly is SP. I do give them credit for Maeda, hopefully he can return whole.

 

Point taken.

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I was only trying to make the point that the team needed MLB ready competition for our existing everyday players. I was most concerned with having someone ready that could replace Buxton and concerned about LF. I looked around and thought Brantley would be affordable for the Twins and would have been the starter on opening day. I see he’s hitting .304 with an .800 OPS and 121 OPS+ as of today. Bradley, while not a favorite was coming off what looked like a breakthrough season. 

I also was concerned about Donaldsons health and Sano’s drop-off and though Maikel Franco of the Royals could help. The idea is that I was trying to address insurance for the problems from Kepler’s BA to Buxton’s health struggles to no established LF, etc. 

My overriding point, backed up by Roy Smalley on his podcast was that the Twins had question marks at every position. And it’s played out that way. SMalley was asked for a win prediction and said 90. When people asked him why, he replied that the Twins had question marks all over the diamond.

I’m only asking for a more aggressive approach from the FO. I do think they are to blame for the drop from 101 wins to the current losing record. Why couldn’t they have been as aggressive as the White Sox? Jim Pohlad has said that he was not averse to raising payroll if FO comes to him and says a guy will help. The area where they have really performed poorly is SP. I do give them credit for Maeda, hopefully he can return whole.

 

You're trying to build a fantasy team. You're ignoring a lot of other things. The Pohlads always say they're willing to increase payroll, yet it never happens. You think the FO told them they want to spend less money? Find that hard to believe. And signing Brantley (one of the best pure hitters of the last 10 years) would've been great if you ignore his 2 year, 32m price tag that he got to stay with a team that just beat the Twins in the playoffs. Twins weren't going to block a corner OF spot with him and were going to bring Cruz back before putting Brantley in at DH.

Maikel Franco is a dime a dozen player who wouldn't be helping this team at all.

Already explained that Bradley for 12m a year is a joke.

Sano just signed an extension and they weren't going to sign his replacement with Kirilloff on his way.

Of course insurance is important and the FO wants to get as much as possible, but if you're a Maikel Franco type would you sign to play everyday in Bal or backup Donaldson in MN? He's trying to revive his career and get another contract. Being a backup is his last choice. You don't spend 12m on a backup OFer like Bradley. Especially when you have Cave who is basically the same player. Kirilloff and Larnach were the insurance for the OF with Kepler and Cave able to move to CF when Buxton went down. Having all 3 hurt at the same time isn't something you can easily insure for. No quality player is going to sign a deal to be the 4th string CFer and sit in the minors hoping 3 other dudes get hurt so they get their shot. Lewis and Gordon were insurance for the middle IF. Hard to pick up a quality MIF player at the start of ST when you find out Lewis is out for the year. 

If your desire is just that they spend more money that's not a great goal. Ie spending 12m on Bradley. They need better pitching and spending on May would've been nice. But nobody would've predicted Colome would've suddenly forgotten how to pitch. He's been a very good reliever for a long time now. Duffey, Rogers, and Alcala already had spots locked up. Things have fallen apart and it's awful. I would've liked to see a better signing than Shoemaker and 1 other big time pen arm, but there wasn't really any moves to make on the position player front. Sometimes things just don't turn out. FO could've done things different, but they haven't been the disaster you're attempting to make them into.