Trade or Extend? The Michael Pineda Conundrum

[Major League Ready]

  On 6/2/2021 at 7:27 PM, Mike Sixel said:

What would Tampa do? Do that.

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Good idea!  The Chris Archer trade was one of the best ever.  I guess that trade is more analogous to trading Berrios as Archer was traded at the deadline with the remainder of that season and the next under contract.  Glasnow was better with more years of control + Meadows and the prospect they got back then is now #76 on MLB.com.  70 grade fastball and 65 grade slider.   He is a front of the rotation guy if he can command that stuff reasonably well.  Sure would like the Twins to pull off something similar.  Good call, Mike.    

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 6/2/2021 at 9:28 PM, Major League Ready said:

Good idea!  The Chris Archer trade was one of the best ever.  I guess that trade is more analogous to trading Berrios as Archer was traded at the deadline with the remainder of that season and the next under contract.     

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Archer also had two reasonable team option years beyond that.

[KirbyDome89]

The Twins bought low in '17 when he was coming off an injury and again following his suspension in '19. I don't want to commit to more than 2 years or a high AAV either, but if Pineda avoids major injury this season I think the odds of having our cake and eating it too are slim. This might be his best chance to cash in during FA. 

[wsnydes]

  On 6/2/2021 at 7:49 PM, Vanimal46 said:

When we have a development program like Tampa we can do what they do. 

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I'd rather we do what Tampa does to develop a program like they have, but that's not the topic of discussion!

[wsnydes]

There's not a lot of starting options in house for the near term, but if this season is lost then it makes little sense not to trade him.  If they wanted to push to re-sign him after the season, I wouldn't be opposed to that.

[IndianaTwin]

  On 6/2/2021 at 7:40 PM, mikelink45 said:

Three years and 30 starts according to BR - that use to be a starting pitchers one season.  Suspension plus injuries have not kept him in the rotation.  His body looks like it could break down at any time.  Three years 3 WAR that is 1 per year - replacement level.  

Let's work on the next young arms instead and see what we can get for Pineda.

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It’s 26+5+9=40 starts, actually, in one full season plus 60 games plus 57 games. That’s really 1.7 seasons of team games at this point.

The suspension kept him out, but he’s been healthy otherwise. He’s only missed four or five total starts when he’s been eligible, and never more than 13 days between starts.

Put another way, he’s made 40 starts in the 219 team games he’s been eligible, which works out to 30 starts per 162.

[DocBauer]

Unless this forearm tightness is something bad, I'd say to re-sign him. I like the 2yrs for $26 idea a lot. 

I don't like the trade him and then re-sign him. Feasible? Yes. But he could like his next team as much as the Twins, they like him too and so they offer an even better deal. Things change when things change. We need pitching...everyone does...and I'm for keeping what you have when it's good. And he's a good, solid SP who would be excellent in the 4th spot if we can find someone better for the front of the rotation. 

Now, is someone better via trade, FA or Duran getting his feet wet the second half of 2021? But I'd re-sign him.

[Seansy]

Trade him. You can sign him in the offseason.

[beckmt]

Depends on your view.  If a retool then 2 - 3 years at about 14 - 15 seems about right.  if a rebuild then trade him.  I tend most of this depends on whether you can resign either Berrios or Buxton.  If not either and you are trading both, then you are talking probably 2024 to see results.  Pitching pipeline seems to be coming, not so sure of the hitting. 

[071063]

With where the Twins sit now, the answer has to be Trade Him. I like Pineda, but trade him for future assets.

[jmlease1]

I'd extend him if you can get a reasonable deal. It's all well and good to say "trade him and re-sign him in the off-season" but that doesn't always work. (Escobar, anyone?) Consistent starting pitching is hard to find and it's good to have some veterans in the mix as you develop your young players. Pineda has been good for the Twins.

the complicated thing on giving up on this season and making deals is are you rebuilding or reloading when you do it. The Twins have a bunch of young talent on the cusp of the majors (Kirilloff, Larnach, Duran, Jeffers, etc), which makes a full-on tear down more difficult. Most of the prospects the Twins will get back in any deal, even a good deal, are going to be at A-ball. that's just a reality. Are you better off trying to do a reset on a year where the team is let down by the bullpen and decimated by injuries or throw the early, cheap years of some of those young guys out the window by ensuring the team isn't a contender in 2022 and likely not in 2023 either?

Pineda is the perfect example of where this is a challenge: he's a veteran, but he's not old (i.e., Happ). he's got value, but as a pending FA the return is a more limited because he's a rental with no guarantees. If you don't think he's part of the future, if you don't think he's needed as a bridge for guys like Duran, Canterino, et al, and you think you can get real talent for him...trading makes sense. I would go the other way.

[Vanimal46]

  On 6/3/2021 at 4:37 PM, jmlease1 said:

I'd extend him if you can get a reasonable deal. It's all well and good to say "trade him and re-sign him in the off-season" but that doesn't always work. (Escobar, anyone?) Consistent starting pitching is hard to find and it's good to have some veterans in the mix as you develop your young players. Pineda has been good for the Twins.

the complicated thing on giving up on this season and making deals is are you rebuilding or reloading when you do it. The Twins have a bunch of young talent on the cusp of the majors (Kirilloff, Larnach, Duran, Jeffers, etc), which makes a full-on tear down more difficult. Most of the prospects the Twins will get back in any deal, even a good deal, are going to be at A-ball. that's just a reality. Are you better off trying to do a reset on a year where the team is let down by the bullpen and decimated by injuries or throw the early, cheap years of some of those young guys out the window by ensuring the team isn't a contender in 2022 and likely not in 2023 either?

Pineda is the perfect example of where this is a challenge: he's a veteran, but he's not old (i.e., Happ). he's got value, but as a pending FA the return is a more limited because he's a rental with no guarantees. If you don't think he's part of the future, if you don't think he's needed as a bridge for guys like Duran, Canterino, et al, and you think you can get real talent for him...trading makes sense. I would go the other way.

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Love this post. You laid it out perfectly. Consistent starting pitching is hard to find, and the Twins have a deficit of MLB-ready starting pitching. Duran could get his feet wet this year at TF (plenty of irrelevant innings left this season!), Balazovic could get a few starts in St Paul, Canterino could get a few starts in AA. None of them will be projected for above average MLB value in 2022. 
 

 

[Shaitan]

He's also one more suspension away from significant time.

[Mike Sixel]

  On 6/3/2021 at 7:09 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Love this post. You laid it out perfectly. Consistent starting pitching is hard to find, and the Twins have a deficit of MLB-ready starting pitching. Duran could get his feet wet this year at TF (plenty of irrelevant innings left this season!), Balazovic could get a few starts in St Paul, Canterino could get a few starts in AA. None of them will be projected for above average MLB value in 2022. 
 

 

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If none of them are going to be good next year....why do we care if Pineda is here? They showed this year they wouldn't sign legit starting pitchers in a year they were supposed to contend.....what are you expecting next year from the starters?

[rv78]

If they don't extend Pineda he'll be gone either by trade or Free Agency. Twins don't sign legit starting pitchers in free agency. They go after reclamation projects and left-overs that no one else wants like Shoemaker and Happ. They traded for Maeda who couldn't even make or stay in the Dodgers rotation at the #5 spot. Berrios will be gone. He's got too much talent for the Twins to afford. Face it, they are a AAAA team playing amongst true major league caliber teams pretending they belong. Their playoff record proves what they are. Sometimes the truth hurts and it shows up like it is doing this season. Glad they built Target Field so they could increase revenue and bring in top Free Agent talent. Problem is they don't, they are still bargain shopping and dumpster diving especially when it comes to pitching.

[Vanimal46]

  On 6/3/2021 at 8:15 PM, Mike Sixel said:

If none of them are going to be good next year....why do we care if Pineda is here? They showed this year they wouldn't sign legit starting pitchers in a year they were supposed to contend.....what are you expecting next year from the starters?

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Because we know Big Mike is good when he’s not suspended. There’s 2 spots to fill regardless, and Falvey’s free agent track record since coming here has been mixed, at best. 
 

Cruz and Pineda have been the very good free agent signings. They hit on a couple good relievers (Clippard, Romo, Rodney) got half a season of good from Rich Hill. The others like Lynn, Reed, Bailey, and Odo’s QO have been busts. 
 

I see this as a re-tool, not a rebuild situation. Flip some of the expiring contracts for modest returns like Simmons, Robles, Happ, and Shoemaker if he has any value. Extend Big Mike for consistency in the rotation, and try to win in 2022. 

[Major League Ready]

Two questions .... One, what's the return.  Two, can we sign another free agent SP that is as good for roughly the same money and younger?  If the return is a starting caliber player, why would we want to pass-up that opportunity if we can get a similar player (hopefully younger) in free agency.

A key consideration is if the team is able to establish a couple prospects this year that take rotation spots next year.  If so, They could take the money they are spending on Pineda, Happ, and Shoemaker and spend it on an upgrade SP.  If I were this FO, I would move those three even if it meant putting them in the BP or releasing them to make room for auditions.

Also, Cruz and Simmons come of the books too.  They will have money to spend on FAs.

[SkyBlueWaters]

  On 6/3/2021 at 8:15 PM, Mike Sixel said:

... They showed this year they wouldn't sign legit starting pitchers in a year they were supposed to contend.....what are you expecting next year from the starters?

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Bingo. No one could have predicted the injury problems, but Happ and Shoemaker were never legit playoff-caliber pitchers.

I really liked the Pineda signing, along with acquiring Maeda. I'm very leery of giving big bucks to pitchers, but they of course want as many years as they can get. 

I like Maeda's incentive-laden contract.  I wish our FO would explore this more often, giving starters fat bonuses for reaching 160, 180, 200 IP.  If this is one way to lure Pineda and others (who might pitch at the front of a rotation rather than being mediocrity in the back), I'm all for it.

[ashbury]

  On 6/4/2021 at 10:58 PM, SkyBlueWaters said:

I wish our FO would explore this more often, giving starters fat bonuses for reaching 160, 180, 200 IP.

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It's a nice thought, and will work for pitchers who aren't seen as difference makers.  But the better pitchers will get counter offers from the teams with deeper pockets and thus more able to take on risk. "We'll give you the same money as the Twins, but guaranteed."

[Nine of twelve]

The question being addressed reminds me of this.

https://www.hgtv.com/shows/love-it-or-list-it

[SkyBlueWaters]

  On 6/5/2021 at 5:07 PM, ashbury said:

It's a nice thought, and will work for pitchers who aren't seen as difference makers.  But the better pitchers will get counter offers from the teams with deeper pockets and thus more able to take on risk. "We'll give you the same money as the Twins, but guaranteed."

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We can't keep signing guys like Shoemaker and expect to contend. Happ isn't a difference-maker, either.

Pohlad pockets are plenty deep--it's earmarking the money that's an issue. The Dodgers got Maeda to sign that contract. Obviously, the best pitchers are going to get guaranteed contracts. But we did well with Pineda and Maeda is a cut above the two we signed this off-season, who were mistakes.