Potential Trade Packages for José Berríos

[Matthew Lenz]

In my last article, I analyzed José Berríos’ trade value using recent trades for what impact starters netted their former clubs. Now, I will look at a few teams that might look to bolster their rotation before or at the deadline and specific players the Twins could target.

The last article generated some good discourse on this topic and really showed that fans really are split on this topic. Some are wondering if it’s a panic move based on two months of data while others are wondering who would replace Berríos in the rotation if he were traded? In Matthew Taylor’s article, which was the inspiration for my articles on this topic, he is of the ilk that the last two months show the Twins aren’t in that window to compete for a World Series this year or next. He doesn’t believe a complete rebuild is necessary, as the Twins boast one of the best farm systems in baseball, and thinks the window is just shifted to 2023 and beyond. On the other hand, I’ve just lost the faith in Berríos to take that next step to be a frontline starter but, with one-and-a-half years of team control remaining and being on the younger side, I think a team would “pay up” for that potential that many Twins fans thinks he still has. If the Twins were to hold him and look to sign an extension, I’d want it to be no more than $15MM AAV over a two or three years but even the top end of that feels too rich for me. If we were to move on from Berríos this year and think that we will compete in 2022, then there are about a dozen free agents options that I think would sufficiently replace him but that sounds like an article for another day. I think one thing that we need to be reminded of is that this informal series that Matthew and I have created wasn’t just a spur of the moment, “panic” decision.

To be fair, this sounds more like speculation than an actual report but it comes from a legitimate journalist who’s been tied to Major League Baseball since the early 2000’s. Even if it’s speculation, he’s been through enough seasons and trade deadlines to have an idea on how the trade market could come together in the coming months. In particular, he mentioned the Blue Jays as a potential suitor but I also think the Braves and Yankees are two other teams who have the offense for a postseason run while needing some rotation help, and have the farm system necessary to add an impact starter. Looking at the Twins farm system and young talent already in the Majors, I think the biggest needs for the Twins would be a pitching prospect, ideally left-handed, and/or a prospect who could play third base who can help within the next couple of seasons. Theoretically, the Twins could probably piece together a second base/shortstop/third base puzzle that included Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon, Royce Lewis, and even Keoni Cavaco over the next few seasons but they really don’t  have a true third base prospect in their system. Based on my previous article, I don’t think the Twins will net a top-100 prospect for Berríos alone and would likely need to add another piece to sweeten the deal whether that be cash, a rent-a-reliever (i.e. Hansel Robles or Alex Colomé), or a position player (i.e. Kepler with the emergence of Larnach and Kirilloff). Without further ado, here are the players I would be targeting a Berríos deal.

Toronto Blue Jays (24-23, 4th in AL East, 39.3% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs)

The Jays farm system is stacked and they have one of the best offenses in baseball that needs to be supplemented with some pitching help in both their rotation and bullpen. If I were to put together a deal involving Berríos and one of our rent-a-relievers, I would be targeting the following:

• Simeon Woods-Richardson - RHP prospect known more for his command of the zone than being a power pitcher
• Jordan Groshans - a SS/3B prospect with a good bat who needs another season or two in the minors
• Alek Manoah - RHP prospect with a big arm that needs to improve control

I’m more interested in the top two than Manoah and, of course, he’s coming off a fantastic MLB debut. They might be pressed to move on from Groshans as they don’t have any other future options at third with Vladimir Guerror Jr moving to 1st but, if the Twins are sellers, they’ll have the assets to net him and Woods-Richardson.

Atlanta Braves (24-25, 2nd in the NL East, 36.1% chance to make the playoffs)

Like the Blue Jays, the Braves have the offense to contend but really need help in their rotation and bullpen making them a good match if the Twins are sellers. Moreover, they have one of the better farm systems in baseball making it plausible they’d be willing to move things around to make a push in the second half of the season. I would target the following:

• Braden Shewmake - 2B/SS prospect projects as a good contact hitter with good speed and a good glove, but not great skills.
• Tucker Davidson - LHP prospect who projects to be good, not great, with a plus fastball but needs to work on improving his offspeed.
• Kyle Muller - hard throwing LHP prospect with plus pitches but struggles with control which will likely be a deciding factor in how his career plays out.

As I mentioned earlier, the Twins are chalked full with young middle infield options but when Shewmake was drafted (2019, 1st round) some thought his long-term outlook was at 3rd base, although he’s played exclusively at short in the Braves system. Of the two lefties, which is a need for the Twins, Muller has the higher ceiling while Davidson has the higher floor and has also made two appearances for the Braves over the last two seasons.

New York Yankees (28-20, 1st in the AL East, 87.0% chance to make the playoffs)

The Yankees starting rotation has been better than most would have thought but just lost Corey Kluber for at least two months to a shoulder injury, and I don’t think they have the reinforcements that can be relied on in 2021. I would target the following:

• Luis Medina - hard throwing RHP prospect who really needs to work on control. Probably needs at least one or two more seasons in the minors.

I didn’t even mention higher ranked RHP prospects like Clarke Schmidt who has already had Tommy John surgery and multiple issues with his elbow, Luis Gil or Deivi Garcia who don’t move the needle for me. On the other hand, Medina would be an intriguing project that has the potential to be better than Berríos but also has the floor where he’s a non-factor. Outside of Jasson “the next Mike Trout” Dominguez, they don’t have the farm system to acquire a big-time arm (i.e. Max Scherzer) midseason, so a mid level starter like Berríos is probably more realistic.

I wouldn’t be overly concerned with our lack of 3rd base prospects and would be targeting pitchers as the headliner in a trade involving Berríos, as you can never have enough pitching. Furthermore, I think finding a team like the Blue Jays or Braves that need help in the rotation and bullpen could really help a better prospect by creating a bigger package of immediate contributors to potential playoff teams.

What are your thoughts on some of the names in this article? There are undoubtedly more teams that would be interested in Berríos...do you have a certain team or prospect in mind you’d like to see the Twins acquire?

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[cHawk]

Damn, it’s depressing that we’re discussing this and it’s not even Memorial Day.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I’m very split on whether to trade Berrios at all, in part because I think your AAV to sign him is low and in part because I think he has a better chance to take the next step up to solid top of the rotation starter. I agree that he’ll never be a true “ace”. I still think he’ll get a contract in the $17-20m AAV range because that’s what true #2 guys are worth today. I’d still sign him if we could because we can’t sign top end free agents so we have to keep our own if there’s a chance they can become that top end guy. 
 

Any trade has to bring back pitching, period. I like the Braves prospects the best and that gets him out of the AL. 

[ashbury]

If the team makes a push to sign him, and the player's agent tells the GM, "look, whatever you offer him, the Yankees or Dodgers will top next year. We're testing free agency," I think you have to look into trades like the ones discussed here.

[beckmt]

I think you are all low on what Berrios will command, my guess is he wants in the 20 - 25 range.  That is high for me, given what I feel he is worth.  Don't know what he could bring back, but some organizations have prospects who are blocked and might be available.  Pitching is the key, or middle infield or 3B.  We have outfielders for the time being, unless you are including Kepler or the like to bring back better players.

[Greglw3]

I’d want to make a major push to sign him before I thought about trading him. I still think at his young age and the stuff he has, that he can be a solid #1 sometime not too far down the line. I’d rather them dump Donaldson’s contract and use the money on Berrios. 

For me, a top 100 prospect would not be nearly enough for the Twins best pitcher, who has not reached that magic age of 27 which is a good guess at a peak season. I would sign him for 6 years 120 MM, less than Mauer cost.

The Twins do have a talented  3B at Wichita in Jose Miranda. He’s only 22 and can play SS too (like he did tonight) and has a great slash line counting tonight (went 2 for 5 with a HR and 4 RBI. Current average .311, current OPS .934! 

[Seansy]

5 minutes ago, beckmt said:

I think you are all low on what Berrios will command, my guess is he wants in the 20 - 25 range.  That is high for me, given what I feel he is worth.  Don't know what he could bring back, but some organizations have prospects who are blocked and might be available.  Pitching is the key, or middle infield or 3B.  We have outfielders for the time being, unless you are including Kepler or the like to bring back better players.

Agree 100% with this. He's a multi time All Star, still young, durable, and has upside. He'll get something around what Zach Wheeler got, maybe a little less.

If the Twins are out of it they should definitely listen to offers for him because he's not signing an extension, let alone a "team friendly" one. Of the prospects you listed the Blue Jays guys are the only ones in the Top 100 at MLB.com and are generally regarded as top 100 type guys around the industry. Much like they did with Duran I don't mind them searching for projectable high upside young arms in a trade but given Jose's track record I think they should only trade them if they get AT LEAST 1 top 100 guy if not more. Remember, The Jays asked for one of Lewis or Kirilloff for Stroman and he had 1.5 years left like Jose. Is Stroman really better than Jose? Significantly so?

Looking at their Savant pages I'd argue no.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/marcus-stroman-573186?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-berrios-621244?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

We'll see where they are at in a few weeks but if they cannot make a run they should shoot for high end guys only and if nobody is willing to trade them that then just hold onto him for next year.
 

[Dman]

I like how we match up best with the Blue Jays.  Not sure Berrios will be their first choice in the market or not but if the Twins work a deal for an up the middle player that could really help them out.  I think they will be hard pressed to get the Blue Jays to include a pitcher back in the deal for 1 and half years of Berrios but you never know. 

Still I would trade Berrios as I don't think we can extend him and this year will be the most value we can hope to get from him as well.  Also don't forget if the team that acquires Berrios can't sign him they will get draft pick compensation back so that needs to be factored into the deal and should increase what return the Twins can get for him.  I honestly don't think a top 100 player would be out the of question and if a sweetener is required that is fine too.

We need to get valuable player back at a position of need SS, CF, or starting Pitcher.  Get the best return you can and go from there.  With the graduation of Kirilloff and Larnach we are probably looking at 5 pitcher in our top 10 as it is not including Dobank and Ober so we do have pitchers to fall back on in 2022 but they would not be seasoned options.

'

[thegambler]

Berrios is already a front line starter, and any team who can get him for $15 million for two years is getting a steal.  You people are fukking blind.  You just can't see it because the Twins suck ass.  If Berrios had a 3.75 ETA and 400 strikeouts in two years for the Yankees, he'd have at least 30 wins of not more, and you'd think he was a God. 

Stop critiquing players based on how ****tty their squads are. 

[Matthew Lenz]

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I’d want to make a major push to sign him before I thought about trading him. I still think at his young age and the stuff he has, that he can be a solid #1 sometime not too far down the line. I’d rather them dump Donaldson’s contract and use the money on Berrios. 

For me, a top 100 prospect would not be nearly enough for the Twins best pitcher, who has not reached that magic age of 27 which is a good guess at a peak season. I would sign him for 6 years 120 MM, less than Mauer cost.

The Twins do have a talented  3B at Wichita in Jose Miranda. He’s only 22 and can play SS too (like he did tonight) and has a great slash line counting tonight (went 2 for 5 with a HR and 4 RBI. Current average .311, current OPS .934! 

The Twins best pitcher is 32...

[Matthew Lenz]

1 hour ago, thegambler said:

Berrios is already a front line starter, and any team who can get him for $15 million for two years is getting a steal.  You people are fukking blind.  You just can't see it because the Twins suck ass.  If Berrios had a 3.75 ETA and 400 strikeouts in two years for the Yankees, he'd have at least 30 wins of not more, and you'd think he was a God. 

Stop critiquing players based on how ****tty their squads are. 

Berríos is not a front line starter on a “****ty squad”, as you would say, what makes you think he’s a frontline starter on a non-“****ty squad”. His career era and FIP are near 4.00...thats “front line” to you???

[mikelink45]

This essay convinces me that we are better off considering Berrios our FA starter until his contract ends.  I am not impressed with any of these options.  When they are described as  pitchers who still need to find control I am out, many of the prospects never do.  I do not subscribe to the we have to trade him line for players ending their contract years if they are producing more than what you will get for them.  We trade him, sign another Happ or Shoemaker for the rotation and in two years will have lost the production that Berrios can give the team. 

[dbminn]

I agree with thegambler. TD fans love to undervalue veteran players when the team is struggling.

Berrios has had an incredibly durable and consistent career. He's ranged between 18th and 28th in the majors by fWAR over 2/3/4/5 years. His ranks since the beginning of 2017 (min 500 IP):

• fWAR - 18th
• ERA - 28th
• K%-BB% - 23rd

There are 32 MLB clubs. He's a solid #2 in a contending rotation and a #3 in one of the best three rotations in baseball. He's worth a #50-#100 pick on his own, especially mid-season, when starting pitching should bring a premium.

By trade value math, Berrios equals:

• Deivi Garcia from the Yankees, or
• Simeon Woods-Richardson + one or two top 30 org prospects from the Blue Jays. (One note - if Richardson keeps pitching like he has to start 2021, he may move way up the Top 100, out of reach for just Berrios. Sub any Top 50-75 pitcher.)

Kepler is worth at least 30% more than Berrios due to the nice contract.

Personally, I hope the Twins find a 10-game winning streak so we don't find out if I'm right or wrong. If a trade does happen, I'll take the good or bad takes that comes with these predictions (for healthy players).

[chinmusic]

1 hour ago, dbminn said:

I agree with thegambler. TD fans love to undervalue veteran players when the team is struggling.

Berrios has had an incredibly durable and consistent career. He's ranged between 18th and 28th in the majors by fWAR over 2/3/4/5 years. His ranks since the beginning of 2017 (min 500 IP):

• fWAR - 18th
• ERA - 28th
• K%-BB% - 23rd

1 hour ago, dbminn said:

I agree with thegambler. TD fans love to undervalue veteran players when the team is struggling.

Berrios has had an incredibly durable and consistent career. He's ranged between 18th and 28th in the majors by fWAR over 2/3/4/5 years. His ranks since the beginning of 2017 (min 500 IP):

• fWAR - 18th
• ERA - 28th
• K%-BB% - 23rd

There are 32 MLB clubs. He's a solid #2 in a contending rotation and a #3 in one of the best three rotations in baseball. He's worth a #50-#100 pick on his own, especially mid-season, when starting pitching should bring a premium.

By trade value math, Berrios equals:

• Deivi Garcia from the Yankees, or
• Simeon Woods-Richardson + one or two top 30 org prospects from the Blue Jays. (One note - if Richardson keeps pitching like he has to start 2021, he may move way up the Top 100, out of reach for just Berrios. Sub any Top 50-75 pitcher.)

Kepler is worth at least 30% more than Berrios due to the nice contract.

Personally, I hope the Twins find a 10-game winning streak so we don't find out if I'm right or wrong. If a trade does happen, I'll take the good or bad takes that comes with these predictions (for healthy players).

. He's a solid #2 in a contending rotation and a #3 in one of the best three rotations in baseball. He's worth a #50-#100 pick on his own, especially mid-season, when starting pitching should bring a premium.

By trade value math, Berrios equals:

• Deivi Garcia from the Yankees, or
• Simeon Woods-Richardson + one or two top 30 org prospects from the Blue Jays. (One note - if Richardson keeps pitching like he has to start 2021, he may move way up the Top 100, out of reach for just Berrios. Sub any Top 50-75 pitcher.)

Kepler is worth at least 30% more than Berrios due to the nice contract.

Personally, I hope the Twins find a 10-game winning streak so we don't find out if I'm right or wrong. If a trade does happen, I'll take the good or bad takes that comes with these predictions (for healthy players).

32 MLB teams?

Did I miss something?  Has baseball returned to Montreal?

If so, you've made me very happy! Go Expos (and Twins)

[lukeduke1980]

If the market is less than a top 100, forget it and role the dice that things click for Jose and stars align for the team 

[Supfin99]

No way I would trade him now. Saying he has a 4 ERA is a little misleading. He’s been a sub 4 ERA pitcher in all 3 of his full seasons with an ERA + of 112 to 122. Only 2 outliers were his 1st year getting his feet wet and last season. His career stats are skewed somewhat by a very rough beginning to his career. I’d rather have a proven sub 4 guy that only never misses a start for the season and 2 thirds. We can still get a draft pick for him then. Twins are going to contend this season and next and will need a pitcher like Berrios. 

[GNess]

10 hours ago, thegambler said:

Berrios is already a front line starter, and any team who can get him for $15 million for two years is getting a steal.  You people are fukking blind.  You just can't see it because the Twins suck ass.  If Berrios had a 3.75 ETA and 400 strikeouts in two years for the Yankees, he'd have at least 30 wins of not more, and you'd think he was a God. 

Stop critiquing players based on how ****tty their squads are. 

Please, Berrios has pitched at roughly the same level now. as he did for the Twins' 2019, 2020 Division Championship teams - hardly ****tty squads. Berrios is a good major league starter, and they command a decent price when traded.

[Matthew Lenz]

1 hour ago, dbminn said:

I agree with thegambler. TD fans love to undervalue veteran players when the team is struggling.

Berrios has had an incredibly durable and consistent career. He's ranged between 18th and 28th in the majors by fWAR over 2/3/4/5 years. His ranks since the beginning of 2017 (min 500 IP):

• fWAR - 18th
• ERA - 28th
• K%-BB% - 23rd

There are 32 MLB clubs. He's a solid #2 in a contending rotation and a #3 in one of the best three rotations in baseball. He's worth a #50-#100 pick on his own, especially mid-season, when starting pitching should bring a premium.

By trade value math, Berrios equals:

• Deivi Garcia from the Yankees, or
• Simeon Woods-Richardson + one or two top 30 org prospects from the Blue Jays. (One note - if Richardson keeps pitching like he has to start 2021, he may move way up the Top 100, out of reach for just Berrios. Sub any Top 50-75 pitcher.)

Kepler is worth at least 30% more than Berrios due to the nice contract.

Personally, I hope the Twins find a 10-game winning streak so we don't find out if I'm right or wrong. If a trade does happen, I'll take the good or bad takes that comes with these predictions (for healthy players).

Those numbers speak more to his durability than anything else as there have only been 53 pitchers to pitch 500+ innings since 2017. I understand that durability adds to his value but being 28th and 23rd in two categories puts him in the middle of the pack of that group.

The players I came up with are based off of the recent trades in my previous article that showed a single pitcher doesn’t net you a top-100 guy without adding more to the deal.

[farmerguychris]

I hate the idea that we're looking to move him - Always liked this kid and still think he's a solid #2 guy which we don't have anyone ready to slide into his rotation spot.  However - i think it is obvious he wants to test free agency.  Would we get more in return now, or at the deadline when teams may be willing to compete for him?  With our current core and slate of people almost ready - would prefer to not get some low level guy with high upside but someone only a year away perhaps.  Hope thats the route they go if not simply keep him here and make him an offer he can't refuse.

[dbminn]

2 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

Those numbers speak more to his durability than anything else as there have only been 53 pitchers to pitch 500+ innings since 2017. I understand that durability adds to his value but being 28th and 23rd in two categories puts him in the middle of the pack of that group.

The players I came up with are based off of the recent trades in my previous article that showed a single pitcher doesn’t net you a top-100 guy without adding more to the deal.

Durability is an ability. I stand by my original comment. Hopefully, we won't have a result to compare later this summer!

[dbminn]

3 hours ago, chinmusic said:

32 MLB teams?

Did I miss something?  Has baseball returned to Montreal?

If so, you've made me very happy! Go Expos (and Twins)

oops! Maybe it's a premonition for Montreal!

[Dman]

14 hours ago, thegambler said:

Berrios is already a front line starter, and any team who can get him for $15 million for two years is getting a steal.  You people are fukking blind.  You just can't see it because the Twins suck ass.  If Berrios had a 3.75 ETA and 400 strikeouts in two years for the Yankees, he'd have at least 30 wins of not more, and you'd think he was a God. 

Stop critiquing players based on how ****tty their squads are. 

I don't think anyone is undervaluing him it comes down to if you believe he will stay with the team beyond his rookie deal.  If I believed the Twins could and would sign him I would be all for having him stay.  I just don't think that will happen and because he is a valuable commodity the teams with bigger payrolls will find a way to sign him away.  You can hold onto him for one more year and wait for draft compensation or trade him early and net a top 100 prospect who is closer to ready and more of a sure thing.  Those appear to be the teams only two choices as there have been no rumors he badly wants to stay or that the Twins want to overpay.

This is something the Indians, A's, Ray's and most teams who get supplemental picks do because they generally don't have the payroll or want the flexibility to balance their payroll to get the most value per player average they can. They also want to maximize the return they can get for a player likely to leave because that future value can create a huge impact if the player or players work out.

If everyone on here believed Berrios would for sure sign with the Twins or the Twins were in contention I don't think we would be having this discussion, but here we are.

 

 

[roger]

With the way the Twins have played this weekend against a very average KC team, some type of rebuild/re-tool is needed.  Gonna be interesting seeing how the FO will handle this.  Will they be as good as say Tampa?  Or will this be the beginning of another long period of mediocre baseball at Target Field?

Don't have a clue if Berrios will be part of any deals over the next couple months.  But if they cannot get him signed to an extension, he sure as heck should be.  And the return had better be more than Matt is speculating above.

[se7799]

I think he's saying hes undervalue him because many are predicting only a return of a 100 to 150th ranked prospect.

[Mike Sixel]

Tampa would trade him. The Twins should also. This team is toast this year. 

[Dman]

4 hours ago, se7799 said:

I think he's saying hes undervalue him because many are predicting only a return of a 100 to 150th ranked prospect.

I haven't done the research but I think the OP is treating Berrios like he is a half year rental not 1 and a half because the team that makes the trade if they can't keep Berrios would get a comp pick.  Depending on what team gets him would depend on where that comp pick lands but they get return value even if they cannot resign him.  If you factor that in I believe he should be worth a player in the top 100 and maybe a lottery ticket in the lower levels as well. 

I could be wrong but if the Twins don't get value that would be better than the 35th pick in the draft or so then there is really no need to trade him.  Teams that want him have to top that value and then some for the Twins to lose a year of Berrios and the first round draft Comp pick when he likely leaves.  To me that would be a top 100 player plus a little something extra at a minimum.  The FO doesn't have to trade him and they could use him next year the deal would have to blow them away or at least be an overpay IMO to be made.

[old nurse]

11 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

Those numbers speak more to his durability than anything else as there have only been 53 pitchers to pitch 500+ innings since 2017. I understand that durability adds to his value but being 28th and 23rd in two categories puts him in the middle of the pack of that group.

The players I came up with are based off of the recent trades in my previous article that showed a single pitcher doesn’t net you a top-100 guy without adding more to the deal.

Sonny Grey in a mid season deal netted 2 top 100 prospects, Quintana netted a top 15 and a top 100 prospect. There is an error in your calculator. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

10 hours ago, old nurse said:

Sonny Grey in a mid season deal netted 2 top 100 prospects, Quintana netted a top 15 and a top 100 prospect. There is an error in your calculator. 

Gray had 2.5 years of control when traded, and Quintana had 2.5 plus a team option for 3.5. Berrios is already down to 1.5.

[Otto von Ballpark]

12 hours ago, Dman said:

I haven't done the research but I think the OP is treating Berrios like he is a half year rental not 1 and a half because the team that makes the trade if they can't keep Berrios would get a comp pick.  Depending on what team gets him would depend on where that comp pick lands but they get return value even if they cannot resign him.  If you factor that in I believe he should be worth a player in the top 100 and maybe a lottery ticket in the lower levels as well. 

I could be wrong but if the Twins don't get value that would be better than the 35th pick in the draft or so then there is really no need to trade him.  Teams that want him have to top that value and then some for the Twins to lose a year of Berrios and the first round draft Comp pick when he likely leaves.  To me that would be a top 100 player plus a little something extra at a minimum.  The FO doesn't have to trade him and they could use him next year the deal would have to blow them away or at least be an overpay IMO to be made.

The comp pick has value, although it wouldn’t be selected until 2023 and probably wouldn’t be ready for MLB until 2025-2026 at least. Even a top 150 prospect, who’s ready in the next ~2 years, could be more valuable for a team, just due to being further along the development schedule. See what the Jays did with Stroman.

[Dman]

3 hours ago, spycake said:

The comp pick has value, although it wouldn’t be selected until 2023 and probably wouldn’t be ready for MLB until 2025-2026 at least. Even a top 150 prospect, who’s ready in the next ~2 years, could be more valuable for a team, just due to being further along the development schedule. See what the Jays did with Stroman.

I like your Stroman comp and feel the situation is similar for the Twins.  Still they will need a team that likes Berrios better than other options at the trade deadline and be willing to give up more prospect capital than for just a rental.

I agree it makes the most sense to trade rather than wait for the comp pick but the Twins FO needs to decide if having Berrios for one more year plus the comp pick is greater than what they might be offered in trade.  Going the comp pick route means it would likely be another 5 years from today before that player would help the team and that is assuming that player does not end up a bust as then they get nothing at all.  They would have to play the long game if they decide to go that route.

If they can trade for a top 100 to 150 player they get the assurance that said player has already done well professionally so won't bust straight out of the draft but will still have to be good enough to play with the best of the best.  Still that prospect in the trade can fail as well but the odds are better and the player has a chance to contribute in the next year or two if that player is at High A or AA.  So trading makes a lot of sense IMO but the return has to be there.  Can't just trade to trade they need to get something they need back.