Sano No-No

[denarded]

I'm surprised at the quick adaptation of 'Sano is back'. I understand his power a huge commodity. I like his glove at 1B. But 5 HR's in 7 games does not absolve him from the damage he has done to this lineup. He's well below the Mendoza line, Almost half his hits are HR's and yet only has 16 RBII's (coming off a grand slam last night) I don't understand Sabermetrics, but I understand from 35 years years of watching baseball that being a rally killer, and so strikeout prone is bad for the team. I've harshed on him in the past and have applauded him at times, but I think it's time to cut ties with him now while he's 'hot' I no longer fear an Ortiz backlash. Get something for him while his name is in the news cycle. Anybody that archives posts, I will gladly take my lumps. Thanks for the time

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sano has been so good the past ten days that both his context neutral stats like wRC+ look good and his clutch stats like WPA are close to neutral (currently -0.2).

I don’t know how many times this needs to be said, it seems like a yearly thing with Sano, but you cannot write off a player after 75 plate appearances.

[bighat]

I think you just gotta keep putting him in the lineup.

[Thegrin]

When Sano swings at low pitches, he has problems. Otherwise, his hitting is fine. He gets walks. He hits to right & right-center, he even gets the occasional single.  Right now he is one of those glorious streaks where he carries the team. GO SANO!

[Number3]

I have been negative Sano for most of his time with the Twins. However, this is such a pitcher dominated season so far, that getting runs on the board somehow, some way is at a premium. He at least deserves a temporary grace period after big contribution to 3 must wins. Now that they have won a series and run totals are creeping up I hope he can at least give opponents some concern and get the average up to close to the .250 mark by All Star break. If not, this should probably be his last with the Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

27 minutes ago, Number3 said:

I have been negative Sano for most of his time with the Twins. However, this is such a pitcher dominated season so far, that getting runs on the board somehow, some way is at a premium. He at least deserves a temporary grace period after big contribution to 3 must wins. Now that they have won a series and run totals are creeping up I hope he can at least give opponents some concern and get the average up to close to the .250 mark by All Star break. If not, this should probably be his last with the Twins.

I'm not sure we should be that worried about Sano's batting average, as it's a very incomplete stat, doubly so for someone on the extremes of batting profiles like Sano. Obviously, hitting .170 is unacceptable but in today's scoring environment, .250 would be nice but isn't necessary for him to be a well above average hitter.

Right now, his BA is .183 but his OBP is .315... That's an isoD over .130.

If he's walking a lot and climbs back up to the top of the exit velo leaderboard, a .250 batting average would likely turn him into one of the best hitters in the league.

But no matter where his batting average lands on the season, if he keeps his strikeout rate at or close to career lows (~35%) and keeps that exit velo up (climbing the board lately but only after a disastrous start to 2021), he'll be a very good hitter. At that point, the batting average will likely move into an acceptable territory but it's not the stat I'd lead with to evaluate his worth as a hitter. Actually, it's near the bottom of stats I'd look at to evaluate him.

[Craig Arko]

Yes, Harmon Killebrew's career BA was .256. That's not what got him into the HoF.

[Dodecahedron]

The leaguewide batting average is .237 right now.  Only 5 teams have batting averages over .250. 

Sano's career batting average is .238 and he has only hit over .250 twice.

If Sano can start delivering in clutch moments we will all feel much better about him, even with a mediocre batting average.  Unfortunately, just as it is with anyone who has a high amount of drama around them, delivering the goods when others need him is probably not in the cards for Sano.

I hope Sano does well for the rest of the year, and I also hope the Twins start to see what they have with him and let him go.  He is replaceable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

I hope Sano does well for the rest of the year, and I also hope the Twins start to see what they have with him and let him go.  He is replaceable.

Except the Twins are already paying Sano and unless he becomes "no longer replaceable", they will have to continue to pay him to offload him to another team. And if he's no longer replaceable, it'd be a mistake to trade him.

So why get rid of him at that point? Is any positional gain you get by replacing him worth paying millions of dollars to another team, money that could be used to shore up another position of weakness? That seems really unlikely.

[Dodecahedron]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

Except the Twins are already paying Sano and unless he becomes "less than replaceable", they will have to continue to pay him to offload him to another team.

So why get rid of him at that point? Is any positional gain you get by replacing him worth paying millions of dollars to another team? That's really unlikely.

I suppose if you budget X for the 1B position, then trading Sano, paying part of his salary, and paying someone much less to play for your team could end up being the same amount of $ or could save $.  So should the Twins pay the same amount to have a more consistent/better player at 1B?  

Sano's salary is not in the stratosphere.  Heck, his salary is average.  There may be a power-hungry team out there who would take the plunge without costing the Twins much if anything when it comes to cash.  I would certainly consider Sano if I were running a team in contention.  The Twins have others who can step into 1B and would only need prospects or pitching in return.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

I suppose if you budget X for the 1B position, then trading Sano, paying part of his salary, and paying someone much less to play for your team could end up being the same amount of $ or could save $.  So should the Twins pay the same amount to have a more consistent/better player at 1B?  

Sano's salary is not in the stratosphere.  Heck, his salary is average.  There may be a power-hungry team out there who would take the plunge without costing the Twins much if anything when it comes to cash.  I would certainly consider Sano if I were running a team in contention.  The Twins have others who can step into 1B and would only need prospects or pitching in return.

Your point seems really contradictory. If you ran a team in contention, you'd consider Sano... so why on earth should the Twins pay to give him up or, at best, give him away for nothing?

What is gained by this?

It's not as if the Twins have a line of first basemen waiting to take Miguel's place in the lineup. Literally the only viable option is Kirilloff and until the Twins can field a healthy outfield for longer than five minutes, Sano isn't blocking Alex's progress in the slightest bit.

[Dodecahedron]

14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Your point seems really contradictory. If you ran a team in contention, you'd consider Sano... so why on earth should the Twins pay to give him up or, at best, give him away for nothing?

What is gained by this?

It's not as if the Twins have a line of first basemen waiting to take Miguel's place in the lineup. Literally the only viable option is Kirilloff and until the Twins can field a healthy outfield for longer than five minutes, Sano isn't blocking Alex's progress in the slightest bit.

The Twins need consistency at the position.  Sano's one-trick is his power bat.  If were in contention and I needed more power on my team, Sano would be on the list.  The Twins are in a different situation.  It's not just that the Twins are not in contention, it's that they have different needs.

And yes, if I traded for Sano, I would try to trade him in the offseason unless he delivered something really special.

 

[jaimedude]

I like it when they play Sano at third base more regularly and have Kirloff at first base. Give Donaldson some more DH at bats and save some rest time for Cruz. I know Cruz is a big part of the line up but too many times he plays through injury or is hampered. This time with bruise let him heal up and just give Cruz a little time off even if it means DL time.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I say we don't we trade Sano now for a variety of reasons including the likely low return given his performance this year, his potential, and his actually "reasonable" salary. The biggest reason to keep him is the lack of replacements once Cruz is either traded at the deadline or gone after this year.  This team is going to go to a DH rotation of Sano, Donaldson, Kirilloff, Larnach (maybe), Arraez, and Kepler. It really helps make that work when Sano can play a decent 3B and we can keep Donaldson's bat in the lineup at the DH spot. Similarly, Kirilloff can play 1B, RF or LF to keep him in the lineup and give guys half days off.  No reason to trade Sano now unless we got a very strong return, which seems unlikely, and he may be very valuable later.  

[Number3]

I don't know what I was thinking when I suggested .250 as a goal for Sano's ba. No question, with all of the strikeouts MLB wide, averages are way down and the Mendoza line needs to be lowered by about 50 points. Jim Palmer made the comment in last night's game that the league wide batting average relative to balls put in play is .300. So if a player is up 10 times and puts the ball in play all 10 times he should get 3 hits on average. if they strike out 5 times out of the 10, there's your .150. So the goal for Sano as was stated should simply be to lower his strikeouts. One way would be to not swing the way he did on an off speed pitch last night with 2 strikes. I think his shoes are still next to home plate.

[Joe Jacyszyn]

 Trade Sano , what a waste , Striking out so many times