The Time to Trade José Berríos is Now

[insagt1]

back to Buxton...he probably has a shrewd agent who knows that some team out there (Yanks, Dodgers, RedSox) would be happy to overpay to get this guy, even if he only plays half the season. The agent will quickly say, 'the Twins aren't that team', so Buck will follow the $$$. So do Twins try and make a 'baseball trade' and get quality ready to play now replacement, or do they settle for draft suspects? Or do they let him walk and get mostly nothing? If he ends up injured most of this season, maybe the sting of losing his potential won't be so bad. Its too bad the thrill of a pennant race isn't going be his incentive to stay anymore.

If he does get traded, please do it with an NL team. (or send him to the Orioles!)

 

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Even with Berrios, then, who is pitching next year? I think everyone here knows this pipeline isn't ideal.....everyone.

Berrios, hope Kenta bounces back, hope the FO is able to fill at least 2 rotation spots with something other than fliers and projects? I didn't say the outlook was roses but giving away Berrios all but guarantees a full on rebuild, not a reset for a year or two.

Conversely, what's the pitching plan if he's moved? What team is giving up a front end prospect that's a year or two away from the majors for the opportunity to pay Berrios to be that guy? If Kenta bounces back this year or next we're likely having this same conversation about him; good pitcher on a bad team with 1.5 years left. We've seen the difficulty this organization has had filling a few back end spots each year, I don't want to imagine what the rotation will look like with 4 slots open. If we agree that the Twins are light on pitching prospects, how many eggs are we putting in that basket?

Maybe it's selfish, but I'd rather not race towards a stretch of baseball like we watched in the mid 2010s. If they're going to tear things down to the studs and be terrible again, I'd rather the Twins at least take one more shot at putting a good team on the field for 2022 and hold a fire sale next July if necessary. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Berrios, hope Kenta bounces back, hope the FO is able to fill at least 2 rotation spots with something other than fliers and projects? I didn't say the outlook was roses but giving away Berrios all but guarantees a full on rebuild, not a reset for a year or two.

Conversely, what's the pitching plan if he's moved? What team is giving up a front end prospect that's a year or two away from the majors for the opportunity to pay Berrios to be that guy? If Kenta bounces back this year or next we're likely having this same conversation about him; good pitcher on a bad team with 1.5 years left. We've seen the difficulty this organization has had filling a few back end spots each year, I don't want to imagine what the rotation will look like with 4 slots open. If we agree that the Twins are light on pitching prospects, how many eggs are we putting in that basket?

Maybe it's selfish, but I'd rather not race towards a stretch of baseball like we watched in the mid 2010s. If they're going to tear things down to the studs and be terrible again, I'd rather the Twins at least take one more shot at putting a good team on the field for 2022 and hold a fire sale next July if necessary. 

Berrios is only here two more years.....by the logic of your first paragraph, they are looking at a full on rebuild after 2022, if I read that correctly, anyway. Why not start with more assets?

If a team wants a very good pitcher now, not in 2 years, he's more valuable to that team than someone that will be ready in 2 years.

That said, I'm sympathetic to waiting until the middle of next year....which given their ability to develop pitchers, and willingness to spend real money on them, doesn't look all that promising either....

[KirbyDome89]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Berrios is only here two more years.....by the logic of your first paragraph, they are looking at a full on rebuild after 2022, if I read that correctly, anyway. Why not start with more assets?

If a team wants a very good pitcher now, not in 2 years, he's more valuable to that team than someone that will be ready in 2 years.

That said, I'm sympathetic to waiting until the middle of next year....which given their ability to develop pitchers, and willingness to spend real money on them, doesn't look all that promising either....

There's a 0% chance he doesn't test FA. If the Twins refuse to pay him then you're right, it's rebuild time. I'm holding onto a small hope that they can convince/pay him to stick around. Regardless, the Twins aren't getting an answer on whether he'd consider resigning at this time. Berrios isn't committing to anything when FA is 1.5 years away, so I'm opposed to the notion that if he won't sign long term prior to this trade deadline then he has to be dealt. 

Probably, but that's also an incredibly niche market no? You'd need a find a team that has the pitching talent and is willing to deal it. They'd also need to either be ok with Berrios walking or be willing to pay him. Lastly they'd need to view themselves as a true WS contender and in that "one piece away," mode.

We're in agreement there. Something has to change regarding this FOs approach to pitching. 

[Dodecahedron]

56 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Berrios is only here two more years.....by the logic of your first paragraph, they are looking at a full on rebuild after 2022, if I read that correctly, anyway. Why not start with more assets?

You're forgetting one thing:  This FO does not seem to be afraid to chase high profile free agents and make interesting trades.  There is less pressure to sell early because building from within is no longer the only option.  We might not see a "full on rebuild" with the Twins for a long time.  Not that this approach guarantees success, of course.

I would be surprised if this FO does a complete strip down in the style we are used to, but we'll find out in a couple of months.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, insagt1 said:

back to Buxton...he probably has a shrewd agent who knows that some team out there (Yanks, Dodgers, RedSox) would be happy to overpay to get this guy, even if he only plays half the season. The agent will quickly say, 'the Twins aren't that team', so Buck will follow the $$$. So do Twins try and make a 'baseball trade' and get quality ready to play now replacement, or do they settle for draft suspects? Or do they let him walk and get mostly nothing? If he ends up injured most of this season, maybe the sting of losing his potential won't be so bad. Its too bad the thrill of a pennant race isn't going be his incentive to stay anymore.

If he does get traded, please do it with an NL team. (or send him to the Orioles!)

 

The Yankees probably have had their share of expensive oft injured outfielders on large contracts. Ellsberg, Stanton, Hicks, Judge. Boston has also had recent experience with the expensive injury bug. The Dodgers are pretty set in the outfield.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Dodecahedron said:

You're forgetting one thing:  This FO does not seem to be afraid to chase high profile free agents and make interesting trades.  There is less pressure to sell early because building from within is no longer the only option.  We might not see a "full on rebuild" with the Twins for a long time.  Not that this approach guarantees success, of course.

I would be surprised if this FO does a complete strip down in the style we are used to, but we'll find out in a couple of months.

Do you think they'll sign Berrios AND another high priced starter? This year they signed Happ and Shoemaker......two number 5 types, in a year they were supposed to compete. I'd love it if they did, but I have strong doubts.

[tony&rodney]

Individuals may say that a team will not part with a true top prospect for Buxton or Berrios, but until the GMs talk we will never know. The Rays are gutsy and maybe foolish. They traded the voice of their team for relief pitching. The Rays have middle infielders in spades. Three deep at SS and adding pitchers. ... could be a magic move for Tampa Bay. I'm hoping to see both Berrios and Buxton with the Twins for a half dozen more years, but if they must trade look for players like C. J. Abrams, Austin Martin, and other real prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Individuals may say that a team will not part with a true top prospect for Buxton or Berrios, but until the GMs talk we will never know. The Rays are gutsy and maybe foolish. They traded the voice of their team for relief pitching. The Rays have middle infielders in spades. Three deep at SS and adding pitchers. ... could be a magic move for Tampa Bay. I'm hoping to see both Berrios and Buxton with the Twins for a half dozen more years, but if they must trade look for players like C. J. Abrams, Austin Martin, and other real prospects.

The Rays are the least foolish team in sports when it comes to evaluation and trades. Cheap ? Yes. Foolish? No.

[Bomba2026]

Uh, No.....Let trade the GM for getting rid of Rosario. Lets keep our good players or we are going to go from a good team to years of bad teams...and I won't mention the curse of Eddie Rosario.....oh, and quit taking out Starters in the 6th. Our players need to toughen up. If I called into work every time something hurt, I'd be living in a tent. Jake Cave gets a pass cuz he actually broke something.

[RaoulDuke]

2 hours ago, Bomba2026 said:

Uh, No.....Let trade the GM for getting rid of Rosario. Lets keep our good players or we are going to go from a good team to years of bad teams...and I won't mention the curse of Eddie Rosario.....oh, and quit taking out Starters in the 6th. Our players need to toughen up. If I called into work every time something hurt, I'd be living in a tent. Jake Cave gets a pass cuz he actually broke something.

Rosario is hitting .203 with 3 hrs for Cleveland, it was absolutely the right move to let him go.  Kirilloff and Larnach are ready and need that spot. 

[terrydactyls]

If anyone cares to read the original argument of this thread, it says that the Twins have attempted over the past two years to get Berries and Buxton to sign extensions and have been turned down by the players and agents.  The players are heading to free agency.   If this assumption is true then the Twins really have no choice but to trade them this year at or before the trade deadline.  Losing both after 2022 with nothing in return would be a disaster.  In my opinion, the trades would return far more this year (with one and a half years of control and time to work on extensions) than next year.  So it comes back around to the original comment of give the players until the end of June to sign extensions or ship them out for the best packages.

[Shs_2]

I think Oakland after losing Luzardo , would love jose berrios. Maybe daulton Jeffries and a low level high upside bat would suffice.... I say try to move Donaldson and happ to the braves for Wright 

And finally Taylor Rogers to the Giants for Luciano ... we might have to include someone like Royce Lewis or Jose Miranda but then could get a young arm in return.

[Shs_2]

Should be fairly easy to sign Buxton for the long term. We should get a discount because he's a 3 or 4 month a season  player.

 

6 year extendy for 120 mill ?   The reason that's good to great for Byron is bc he's never going to play 162 games let alone 140 or 130 games a year . I'm hoping 100 to 120 a season here

[insagt1]

Buxton will not be easy to sign because he probably doesn't want to stay. Even teams that are already all set in the outfield would drool to get a talent like Buxton. The big issue of course is how many games would he be able to play? I'm sure his agent will downplay this to the max, in getting Buck a huge payday.

A lot will depend on how many games he can play this season. If he does spend most of the season on the IL, his asking price may diminish.

Seems like most Twins followers are ready to bid Cruz adieu this year. It probably won't matter much if he does move at the deadline because Twins will be out of it and this may well be Cruz' last year anyway. Its hard to say he hasn't been an impact player this season because no one has. bigger disappointment has been Donaldson, who just isn't Mr Excitement like he was advertised to be.

[howeda7]

On 5/21/2021 at 12:49 PM, spycake said:

Duffey's not a pending free agent, and probably isn't particularly valuable at the moment. (Happ is a pending FA but I'd guess he is similarly low-value -- no need to trade him unless we want to free up the roster spot.)

The 2018 Twins traded 6 guys around the deadline. Plus they had a few more projected trade candidates like Morrison and Ervin Santana who were derailed by poor performance and health. And performance and/or health could still knock a few guys off your list by the deadline too.

 

How can Duffy not be a free agent? He's been up since late 2015.

[Otto von Ballpark]

8 hours ago, howeda7 said:

How can Duffy not be a free agent? He's been up since late 2015.

Duffey spent time in the minors in 2016, 2018, and 2019. So by opening day 2020, even though Duffey had played in 5 MLB seasons by that point, he only had about 3 and a half years of MLB service time.

[Dodecahedron]

On 5/21/2021 at 5:06 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Do you think they'll sign Berrios AND another high priced starter? This year they signed Happ and Shoemaker......two number 5 types, in a year they were supposed to compete. I'd love it if they did, but I have strong doubts.

No idea.  They flirted with signing Darvish after signing others in the same year.  Their offer wasn't a serious one in the opinion of anyone except themselves, mind you.

[cmoss84]

On 5/21/2021 at 12:17 PM, spycake said:

I'm not so sure. Nothing against Berrios, but his career high ERA+ is 122, and he's at 103 over 2020-2021 so far.

He reminds me of Zack Wheeler -- a solid guy that teams will pursue in FA, but not necessarily deal a top prospect package for. I remember the 2019 Mets dangling Wheeler at the deadline but ultimately held on to him. He's been great for Philly so far, 153 ERA+, but it's a bit riskier to part with prospects rather than cash if a team is hoping for that kind of improvement.

Fair points. But with Yadier, Wainwright, Goldschmidt, and even Arenado to some degree, the Cardinals might go for it all this year and next. After that, they might be in for a long rebuild any way. 

A playoff rotation of Flaherty, Berrios, and Wainwright is not bad, especially when it seems everything is up for grabs this year.