Article: Are Gibson, Hicks Destined For Rochester?

[jokin]

By your reverence for how the Tampa Rays do business then you ought to love Ryan. The team hea crafted from 2001-2006 averaged only one less win per year than the Tampa team has over the last 5.

 

Pick cherries much, TWO?

[John Bonnes]

The team he crafted from 2001-2006 averaged only one less win per year than the Tampa team has over the last 5

 

Pick cherries much, TWO?

 

If one is going to compare the Rays and the Twins (which would, frankly, make a great separate thread if anyone wants to start it) it seems like those are the years to compare. Both organizations were coming off years of losing, starting with low payroll, struggling to maintain revenues in crummy domed stadiums. It certainly seems like a better comp than comparing the Rays recent success to the Twins last five years, when they were fighting years of success and a farm system that they had about used up.

 

This could make a great other thread.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If one is going to compare the Rays and the Twins (which would, frankly, make a great separate thread if anyone wants to start it) it seems like those are the years to compare. Both organizations were coming off years of losing, starting with low payroll, struggling to maintain revenues in crummy domed stadiums. It certainly seems like a better comp than comparing the Rays recent success to the Twins last five years, when they were fighting years of success and a farm system that they had about used up.

 

This could make a great other thread.

 

I've said this for quite some time. I love the Rays and how they operate but let's face it, they've had a good run that is little better than the Twins from 2001-2006 (and the Twins continued to be good off and on after that point). The Rays had years and years and years of #1, 2, and 3 draft picks to assemble their winning team. That helps any forward-thinking team get back into the playoffs.

 

But now comes the real test. Can they continue to win after picking in the bottom half of the draft, as the Twins did for most of the 2000s?

[ThePuck]

I've said this for quite some time. I love the Rays and how they operate but let's face it, they've had a good run that is little better than the Twins from 2001-2006 (and the Twins continued to be good off and on after that point). The Rays had years and years and years of #1, 2, and 3 draft picks to assemble their winning team. That helps any forward-thinking team get back into the playoffs.

 

But now comes the real test. Can they continue to win after picking in the bottom half of the draft, as the Twins did for most of the 2000s?

 

KC and Pitt have had the same advantage the Rays had...

[twinsnorth49]

This all seems so familiar.....................http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSSk5A1Ps5pKgleZwOFIVfQ5AA7sT05HP4Tn62GfmkzDypthGRPvw

[Brock Beauchamp]

KC and Pitt have had the same advantage the Rays had...

 

Irrelevant. The Royals and Pirates are poorly managed franchises. Getting high draft picks does not guarantee success. On the other hand, success with high picks does not guarantee continued success as you transition to lower picks, either.

[Han Joelo]

I agree with Brock--things go in cycles. Picking in the top 5 for a few years in a row certainly should help an organization look good.

 

To the Rays lovers--I understand geographical loyalty. I'm lucky--the nearest Major League team to me is 600 miles away, so I can just pick a team I admire, which happens to be the Twins. I get it--you love your logo but wish it stood for something else. Hang in there--recent history (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, et. al.) seem to suggest the Twins are adopting a more Rays like approach.

 

 

This thread has gone pretty well despite the idiot comments. I've honestly been backed off my position that the extra year of cost-control doesn't matter. I still think that if Hicks earns the job he should come north. I don't care what job you have, if you're the best guy for the job, you should be rewarded. It sends a positive message throughout the org that if you work hard you will be rewarded. I'm sorry that hard work can't be quantified easily in some statistic.

 

And I stand by my premise that the Angels bungled it with Trout. He's the kind of guy that should get a Longoria type contract, maybe even this year, rendering his "cost-control" years moot. The Angels spent a lot of money last year going all in, and perhaps if they hadn't of chiseled Trout out of a few weeks in the majors, they might have made the playoffs.

[ThePuck]

I agree with Brock--things go in cycles. Picking in the top 5 for a few years in a row certainly should help an organization look good.

 

To the Rays lovers--I understand geographical loyalty. I'm lucky--the nearest Major League team to me is 600 miles away, so I can just pick a team I admire, which happens to be the Twins. I get it--you love your logo but wish it stood for something else. Hang in there--recent history (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, et. al.) seem to suggest the Twins are adopting a more Rays like approach.

 

 

This thread has gone pretty well despite the idiot comments. I've honestly been backed off my position that the extra year of cost-control doesn't matter. I still think that if Hicks earns the job he should come north. I don't care what job you have, if you're the best guy for the job, you should be rewarded. It sends a positive message throughout the org that if you work hard you will be rewarded. I'm sorry that hard work can't be quantified easily in some statistic.

 

And I stand by my premise that the Angels bungled it with Trout. He's the kind of guy that should get a Longoria type contract, maybe even this year, rendering his "cost-control" years moot. The Angels spent a lot of money last year going all in, and perhaps if they hadn't of chiseled Trout out of a few weeks in the majors, they might have made the playoffs.

 

Trout's rookie year was last year. He's free agent eligible in 2018. So last year and the upcoming 5. 6 years of control, just like most players.

[Han Joelo]

Trout's rookie year was last year. He's free agent eligible in 2018. So last year and the upcoming 5. 6 years of control, just like most players.

But didn't they gain a "super two" year? You know, I really don't think I know what I'm talking about, so maybe I should quit this thread.

[ThePuck]

But didn't they gain a "super two" year? You know, I really don't think I know what I'm talking about, so maybe I should quit this thread.

 

Super Two are for players who are arbitration eligible before three years of service. It doesn't affetc years of control but rather years of arbitration. Certain players with less than three years of service time can also become eligible for arbitration, if they meet the following criteria:

 

● If they have less than three years of service time, but more than two.

 

● If they rank within the top 22% of all 2-year players in terms of service time.

 

 

So if a player finishes a season and is just shy of three years of service time (say, 2 years and 171 days) then MLB will award them Super Two status and they’ll be eligible for arbitration. Since these players are still under team control for another three seasons, that means Super Two players get four year of salary arbitration instead of the typical three.

 

The Super Two cutoff used to stand at 17%, but got changed to 22% in the new CBA negotiations. This means that if a team wants to keep a player in the minors until after the Super Two cutoff, they will have to keep that player in the minors for even longer than before. Considering that the cutoff used to fall sometime in June — it varied from year to year, as the 17% cutoff isn’t tied to a specific date — it will likely end up being in July going forward.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/business/super-two/

[Kwak]

Irrelevant. The Royals and Pirates are poorly managed franchises. Getting high draft picks does not guarantee success. On the other hand, success with high picks does not guarantee continued success as you transition to lower picks, either.

 

Perhaps comparing the Twins to the Cardinals would make for a better comparison?

[ashbury]

Perhaps comparing the Twins to the Cardinals would make for a better comparison?

 

Only for the purpose of embarrassing the Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Perhaps comparing the Twins to the Cardinals would make for a better comparison?

 

A much better comparison. The Cards are an obvious example of a mid-market team that thrives, despite having less than stellar pick position many years.

[PopRiveter]

I know it's just spring numbers, but Hicks has 4 home runs (and counting) in his past 3 games. His 8 RBI are tied for the team lead. If he has any chance of playing his way onto the team, he's doing it so far.

[mcrow]

I know it's just spring numbers, but Hicks has 4 home runs (and counting) in his past 3 games. His 8 RBI are tied for the team lead. If he has any chance of playing his way onto the team, he's doing it so far.

 

Yeah, I'd have to say if he really had any chance of playing his way onto the team he's on it right now. A lot of spring training left though.

[PopRiveter]

Just got his third of the day. If a starting job could be won today, it would be.

[James]

I know it's just spring numbers, but Hicks has 4 home runs (and counting) in his past 3 games. His 8 RBI are tied for the team lead. If he has any chance of playing his way onto the team, he's doing it so far.

Make that 5 HR's in 3 Games... Apparently, he's got the right-handed batting down today (3HR game).

[Highabove]

I've said this for quite some time. I love the Rays and how they operate but let's face it, they've had a good run that is little better than the Twins from 2001-2006 (and the Twins continued to be good off and on after that point). The Rays had years and years and years of #1, 2, and 3 draft picks to assemble their winning team. That helps any forward-thinking team get back into the playoffs.

 

But now comes the real test. Can they continue to win after picking in the bottom half of the draft, as the Twins did for most of the 2000s?

 

The 2012 Tampa Starting Rotation

 

James Shields 16th round

Matt Moore 8th

Jeremy Hellickson 4th (rookie of the year)

Alex Cobb 4th

Dave Price 1st

 

Tampa has mostly built their success on superior scouting and player development.

[John Bonnes]

The 2012 Tampa Starting Rotation

 

James Shields 16th round

Matt Moore 8th

Jeremy Hellickson 4th (rookie of the year)

Alex Cobb 4th

Dave Price 1st

 

So the Rays have done a poor job with their high draft picks? Is that the point?

 

I'm kidding, of course. But look at the Twins lineup from 2002 and the draft pick that was spent on them. If I remember right, it's comparable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The 2012 Tampa Starting Rotation

 

James Shields 16th round

Matt Moore 8th

Jeremy Hellickson 4th (rookie of the year)

Alex Cobb 4th

Dave Price 1st

 

The Twins had plenty of guys who succeeded after being picked in later rounds as well... But is that a skill that can be maintained over time? That's far from a given and Tampa certainly hasn't proved that they can do it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So the Rays have done a poor job with their high draft picks? Is that the point?

 

I'm kidding, of course. But look at the Twins lineup from 2002 and the draft pick that was spent on them. If I remember right, it's comparable.

 

Yep and yep.

[Highabove]

So the Rays have done a poor job with their high draft picks? Is that the point?

 

I'm kidding, of course. But look at the Twins lineup from 2002 and the draft pick that was spent on them. If I remember right, it's comparable.

 

 

I do not agree that Tampa,s success is built mostly on high round draft picks.

Many folks believe that Tampa's success is attributed to their years of picking high in the draft.

My point is, this is not necessarily so. Their starting staff highlights my opinion.

Its obvious that they have developed a number of high round picks.

[Riverbrian]

RB, I'm with you on everthing in your post, sans your opening statements. The club's offseason actions strongly tipped their hand that the bulk of their decision-making is based upon "tomorrow", not "today". Thus, the selling to the public that cutting the payroll another 25% and then celebrating the Correia signing as your headline FA acquisition and stripping the top of your order and your keystone defensive players (with no obvious heir-apparents) for 2 minor league pitchers and a question mark SP, and no effort to bolster other obvious holes as much of your AL Central competition is doing precisely the opposite- is the Twins silent scream: "2013 is a lost season". How else should a loyal fan interpret the current situation?

 

Because... No matter what the oddsmakers say... You and I both know that "Mine that Bird" did indeed win the Kentucky Derby in 2009 and the Balitmore Orioles won at Pimlico last year I believe.

 

I'm simply not inclined to look at the Tigers Roster and place it next to the Twins Roster and cancelling my season tickets(I don't own season tickets). The Tigers can fall and the Twins can rise... I won't bet anything important on it but it's possible and it happens every year.

 

Before the season starts you have to put your best foot forward. If Herb Brooks and squad took the what's the point attitude in 1980... Team USA would never have beaten Romania 7 to 2.

[cmathewson]

Hicks today: 4-5, 4 runs, 6 RBI, 3 HRs, SB. He now has five homers in his last nine at bats.

[Kwak]

Only for the purpose of embarrassing the Twins.

Exactly! The Twins are wont to blame disappointment on factors beyond their control--Yankee money, unfavorable draft position for the Twins but favorable for someone else, "injuries", "home field advantage", etc. But, it is rare that they ever admit to their own mistakes. For nearly ten years they trumpeted their success on the SF Giants trade and also the acquistion of Johan Santana, but "other trades or acquisitions"--silence. The long term lack of draft success is more likely systemic than "bad luck".

[glunn]

I do not agree that Tampa,s success is built mostly on high round draft picks.

Many folks believe that Tampa's success is attributed to their years of picking high in the draft.

My point is, this is not necessarily so. Their starting staff highlights my opinion.

Its obvious that they have developed a number of high round picks.

 

As fans, it's easy for us to perceive defects in drafting. If a team's top picks don't pan out, then it's easy to criticize the people handling the drafting.

 

What seems far more opaque is a team's ability to develop that players who the team drafts. I don't know how to measure this, and I could be 100% wrong, but it seems to me that the Rays probably do a great job at developing pitchers.

[DaveW]

since we are being nostalgic, I'd think a nice Dankind post would be appropriate.

 

Oh man, I really miss that guy. He was such a goober but his mullet and hate for Mauer made him actually pretty funny.

[kab21]

Trout's rookie year was last year. He's free agent eligible in 2018. So last year and the upcoming 5. 6 years of control, just like most players.

 

Everyone is forgetting that Trout was called up in 2011 and was awful. The fact that he was awful doesn't matter but that PT in 2011 gave him enough service time that keeping him in AAA didn't matter.

 

Hicks is a different case. He wasn't called up in 2012 so waiting a month does actually delay FA a year.

[ThePuck]

Everyone is forgetting that Trout was called up in 2011 and was awful. The fact that he was awful doesn't matter but that PT in 2011 gave him enough service time that keeping him in AAA didn't matter.

 

Hicks is a different case. He wasn't called up in 2012 so waiting a month does actually delay FA a year.

 

yeah, I was just pointing out what he was saying about Trout wasn't true...that's not why he didn't make the team out the gate in 2012.

 

I think it's longer than a month they need to wait as well, but maybe you're right

[snepp]

Oh man, I really miss that guy. He was such a goober but his mullet and hate for Mauer made him actually pretty funny.

 

How about getting a 'Slap Single' word filter for a day?