Article: Are Gibson, Hicks Destined For Rochester?

[panolo]

Have you found someone who does?

 

Kool aid drinkers everywhere my friend.

[diehardtwinsfan]

since we are being nostalgic, I'd think a nice Dankind post would be appropriate.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I may have missed the reply, but I just wanted to note that Miguel Sano is not 21. All reports show him as being born 5/11/1993, which means he'll turn 20 in about 2 months time. He's still technically 19. He will turn 21 at some point though.

[kab21]

Personally I think Hicks will struggle this season with the Twins. He has always taken a year to adjust and the MLB is a huge jump. calling him up in May/June is not a huge issue.

 

I also have no idea how B.J. Upton entered the discussion. He was twice a late season callup for the Rays before he was finally called up full time.

 

Gibson I'm still more on the fence on. I would prefer that he starts in AAA because an age 31 season could be pretty valuable if he becomes the pitcher that people think he will. The only problem is that the Twins don't have a lot of depth at SP'er. The only pitcher that hasn't earned a spot is Hendriks imo but nearly all of the pitchers could have an injury setback. It might be difficult to go with 1 or 2 of Devries, deduno, random guy when the staff already has Hendriks (struggled so far in the MLB) and Correia (not very good) and there is a more talented guy in the minors. I'm hoping that the Twins have 5 healthy pitchers and gibson is an easy start in the minors.

[Dave T]

This is one of those chicken-and-egg arguments. Do the Twins have a chance to be a winning ballclub this year? Heck yes, if they improve their starting pitching and find a center fielder. I would be OK sending Gibson and Hicks down if they weren't critical to the team's success THIS year. If 140 innings is all Gibson can give us, I'll take it, starting in April.

[ashbury]

Gardy & Terry Ryan would be the first that come to mind.

 

OK, make that "someone who does not have a role in marketing this team".

[Riverbrian]

Personally... I can't get behind any argument that comes with the implication that 2013 is a lost season before the season has begun.

 

No matter how realistic that statement may seem to be to some. I hope that decisions are made based upon today and tomorrow.

 

The question to me is this... Is Hicks much better than Mastro right now? Forget about potential.... We all believe that Hicks is better potentially... What about right now... Is Hicks clearly better right now?

 

if he is just a little better right now... Wait a little while and let him do some more cooking in Rochester to cement it and preserve the year of team control... If he is a ton better... Let him start opening day in Minnesota.

 

Hicks had a great year last year but he didn't have the greatest years prior. A little patience won't kill this club to find out what we have before you kill a year for no improvement over Mastro or slight improvement over Mastro.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hicks had a great year last year but he didn't have the greatest years prior. A little patience won't kill this club to find out what we have before you kill a year for no improvement over Mastro or slight improvement over Mastro.

 

I tend to agree with this. Hicks is not Arcia and just prior to last season, we were still questioning whether he should be a switch-hitter. I love Hicks as a player but he hasn't forced himself onto the Major League roster by any means. He had a good 2012 but in 2011, he was rather mediocre. Some time at AAA to prove he's ready for the show isn't necessarily a bad idea. The same goes for Arcia but I have the feeling Oswaldo is going to be banging on the door sooner rather than later. He hasn't had a bad season yet (a couple of mediocre ones for sure, though) and will force the Twins' hand sometime in 2013, I think.

 

Hopefully they'll both force their way onto the roster sometime mid-season.

[Steve Lein]

"Saving a couple million" is a pretty big deal. People with that kind of money make smart decisions with money not emotional ones.

 

From Mackey's chat the other day:

 

"Comment From Scott

 

Does Ryan not care about the service time with HIcks by having come north with the team vs. leaving him in Rochester for 6 weeks to push back his clock?

 

[TABLE]

http://cdnmo.coveritlive.com/media/avitars/phpwjkHkuPMac1500armscrossed.jpg

Honestly, the service clock thing isn't a huge deal. Teams hold players back to make sure they don't become arbitration-eligible after their second year, which really only saves a couple millions bucks in many cases. "

[/TABLE]

[Halsey Hall]

I've seen quite a few times a late cut heads to AAA that really could have made the team, and the discouragement linger for a month or so. What if Hicks goes down for the month so many want him to,and hits in the .230 range. Kind of hard to bring him up then. If he continues to have a good spring, bring him north. That doesn't take a dime out of my wallet, and perhaps going to a game or two would.

[cmathewson]

I'm sick of this argument. Hicks is the best player of the three by a long shot. He will win the job. They might send Gibson down for a month. They might not. It's entirely dependent on how he pitches in March.

 

I don't think they really care about service time. They've only been shown to do that once in the last decade. I don't think they're idiots because they a) take the best players north every year and sign them to long-term deals before arbitration. The A's and Indians also do this, and nobody calls them idiots.

 

The way the Twins handle it, they make service time a non-issue, except for fringe players, who don't make a hill of beans in contract negotiations anyway. Hicks and Gibson are not fringe. Like Span and Baker before them, they will get long-term deals after their second season in the majors nullifying arbitration and team control issues.

[ashbury]

I've seen quite a few times a late cut heads to AAA that really could have made the team, and the discouragement linger for a month or so. What if Hicks goes down for the month so many want him to,and hits in the .230 range.

 

Then I'll be glad he wasn't up with the Twins and hitting a buck-eighty. If "discouragement" is the issue then it may be best for the team to find it out now rather than wait and find that he pouts for other causes too. I suspect in most cases you've "seen quite a few times", the braintrust has not seen what they wanted, or seen something they didn't like, and sent the player down to improve, and hitting .230 in AAA might even bear out their judgement.

[Kwak]

Considering Gardenhire is still managing, players will be rotated on a whim and any rookies will feel the lash of his tongue and likely the wheels of the bus. He has his pets, and if you aren't one of them you have trouble. Heaven help the guy who is competing against a "pet" for a starting job.

[LaBombo]

So, let's say B.J. Upton has a truly stupendous breakout year. Are you saying the Rays (the paragon of well run organizations for so many) would have been smarter to stash him in the minor leagues for a couple of more years, so as to have preserved his cost controlled prime? I have a fuzzy memory of him mashing in the playoffs as an unprimed 23 year old...

 

Uh, dude, you know that actually happened, right?

 

Before we get to that, Hicks/Upton is an apples-to-atom bombs comparison. Upton was an unbelievable phenom who had exactly one season of minor league experience when he mastered AA and then mashed AAA pitching for a half season (.311/.411/.519). At the ripe old age of 19. Playing shortstop.

 

Until 2012, the perennial debate about Hicks every spring was whether that would be the year the organization would give up on his switch hitting and go righty-only after he struggled constantly from the left. And at age 20, he was repeating Beloit. Bad comp.

 

Where was Upton in his age 20 season? Despite acquitting himself very nicely for a 19 year old in the majors, posting a .258/.324/.409 line there in 159 AB's, he spent the entire following year in AAA and didn't play the majority of a season in the majors until three years later, when his service time started.

 

So the "unprimed" Upton who mashed in the playoffs had over 1000 AAA at bats despite being a much more promising prospect than Hicks in the minors, and the Rays delayed his service time clock two years until age 22 despite his having hit AAA well and holding his own in the majors at 19.

[LaBombo]

Are you saying the Rays (the paragon of well run organizations for so many)

 

As for the "paragon" snark about the Rays, well, they certainly are a paragon of both competitiveness and payroll efficiency compared to the Billy Smith-era Twins. In the past 5 seasons the Rays have averaged 91+ wins and made the playoffs three times despite playing in the same division as a team against which the Twins have managed nothing but a decade-long collective pants-wetting.

[Riverbrian]

Hicks is the best player of the three by a long shot. He will win the job.

 

Maybe... I don't know... But maybe... Potentially... There seems to be no doubt... but right now at this moment... I don't know... But maybe.

[Badsmerf]

Hicks is the best player of the three by a long shot. He will win the job.

 

Reading box scores from 20 Spring Training AB's tells you he is the best player out of the 3? Have you even seen Hicks play? If you actually think this, then why start his clock before it needs to be? This is insane. Its like you and others think this is a playoff team and the slight upgrade that Hicks would provide for 6 weeks outweighs the future payroll. Again, only an idiot would say saving a few million doesn't matter. It does, and if Hicks does turn out to be pretty good it will be more than a few million. I'm getting sick of this discussion. Hicks hasn't seen an MLB AB and people are already voting him into the All-Star game.

[snepp]

Maybe... I don't know... But maybe... Potentially... There seems to be no doubt... but right now at this moment... I don't know... But maybe.

 

So you're saying......there's a chance.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

My opinion is to keep Hicks in AAA until he proves he's ready to start. There is nothing that screams he's major league ready right now and I think he'll be a strikeout machine if he starts from the season opener on. He had a good, not great year in AA, but it definitely wasn't something to have a guy skip AAA. Plus, it's not like he's strung multiple good years together. The speed and fielding is all probably good enough, but it's the batting I'm worried about. I will be shocked if he does he hits above .235 with a reasonable amount of XBH. The extra year of team control isn't the main reason, but I also think it's another small incentive. Give the job to Benson and see how he can do. He's 25 and it's now or never with him, so we may as well see. I think that's the right move for the future. Mastroianni should still get a lot of time subbing for Joe and Parmelee (when he's at first and Morneau DHs).

 

Gibson, on the other hand, I think will be fine in the MLB. He needs the experience now just like Benson does. The minor leagues aren't going to season them much more. No reason to waste his inning limit in AAA. I think they should limit him at the beginning of the schedule instead of the end. Perhaps, let him start still, but only for the first 3 innings. We would need a 6th starter (Devries makes sense) to use from the pen to pair with him of course. From then on, Gibson can gradually increase his innings per start and stay under the whatever mark the Twins want to use that way.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Have you even seen Hicks play?

 

The most commonly used phrase against someone you disagree with in sports. I tire of unoriginality and this question in particular is so annoying. Doesn't make the huge difference people make it out to be. You watch him play one game and apparently you become an expert on the player. Just because you claim to have watched him doesn't make any difference. If that was the case, you could never question Gardy's or TR's decisions because I guarantee they have seen Hicks more than any of us. There's a reason we use stats.

[Halsey Hall]

Then I'll be glad he wasn't up with the Twins and hitting a buck-eighty. If "discouragement" is the issue then it may be best for the team to find it out now rather than wait and find that he pouts for other causes too. I suspect in most cases you've "seen quite a few times", the braintrust has not seen what they wanted, or seen something they didn't like, and sent the player down to improve, and hitting .230 in AAA might even bear out their judgement.

 

You can't be serious about the buck eighty.

 

The "discouragement" or "disappointment" or whatever you care to call it is well known by the team. There's no one that makes that long walk to the minor league camp that's excited about it. Having been here in spring training since the Twins started here, yes, "I've seen it quite a few times". I've even made part of the walk with a couple players. I just tell them to hang in there, I've seen it before, and I'll see them in Minnesota in a month or two. The last two were Span, and then Plouffe. Sometimes the reasons have been what you've stated. Sometimes other reasons. At times the FO has backed themselves into a corner to play a player, ie Nishioka. TK really liked to bring guys like Reboulet up. Gardy does the same. Once in awhile I think it's just a test, lol. TK did admit he brought up Torri Hunter way to soon, and it took awhile but Torri caught up.

 

I guess we'll know here in a few weeks what's shakin'.

[LaBombo]

You can't be serious about the buck eighty.

 

It's not a precise science, but yeah, hitters can easily lose 30 or 40 points of average in transition from AAA to the majors. 50 might be a little bit over the average non-PCL drop. But then you throw in the intangible of a guy with one season above A ball struggling to adjust to his first two-league jump and pressing when he scuffles, and yeah, an MLB equivalency average 50 points below your hypothetical AAA .230 average seems very plausible.

 

Liked your take on spring training, though. There's definitely a psychological element to the sorting process of spring training, especially when a non-contender has multiple unknown quantities battling for roster spots.

[Halsey Hall]

Oh I agree. It was just a hypothetical .230. The buck eighty would never come about, since he can't be in two places at once, is all I meant.

[Badsmerf]

The most commonly used phrase against someone you disagree with in sports. I tire of unoriginality and this question in particular is so annoying. Doesn't make the huge difference people make it out to be. You watch him play one game and apparently you become an expert on the player. Just because you claim to have watched him doesn't make any difference. If that was the case, you could never question Gardy's or TR's decisions because I guarantee they have seen Hicks more than any of us. There's a reason we use stats.

 

LOL ok buddy. That's why baseball scouts are far more important to teams than saber guys... and I'd consider myself a pretty stat heavy guy. I'm done with this thread.

[Guest USAFChief]

Reading box scores from 20 Spring Training AB's tells you he is the best player out of the 3? Have you even seen Hicks play? If you actually think this, then why start his clock before it needs to be? This is insane. Its like you and others think this is a playoff team and the slight upgrade that Hicks would provide for 6 weeks outweighs the future payroll. Again, only an idiot would say saving a few million doesn't matter. It does, and if Hicks does turn out to be pretty good it will be more than a few million. I'm getting sick of this discussion. Hicks hasn't seen an MLB AB and people are already voting him into the All-Star game.

Again, while there are legitimate concerns over whether Hicks is ready for MLB, only an idiot keeps bringing up non-factors like future payroll. People keep saying "a few million doesn't matter" because it doesn't. If you're sick of this discussion, perhaps you should consider not participating in the discussion.

[jokin]

As for the "paragon" snark about the Rays, well, they certainly are a paragon of both competitiveness and payroll efficiency compared to the Billy Smith-era Twins. In the past 5 seasons the Rays have averaged 91+ wins and made the playoffs three times despite playing in the same division as a team against which the Twins have managed nothing but a decade-long collective pants-wetting.

 

As a long-time Ray-o-phile, and frustrated with the 21st Century-long Twins futility with the AL East, your words are aptly put. And it isn't really the Twin's futility on the field, it's the inability of the club to take Rays-like organizational steps to become more consistently competitive with the East, especially considering that during most of this era, the Twins have been positioned to carry a larger payroll and had superior competitive advantages to the Rays- in positional talent- and up to more recently, superior pitching talent, as well.

[jokin]

My opinion is to keep Hicks in AAA until he proves he's ready to start. There is nothing that screams he's major league ready right now and I think he'll be a strikeout machine if he starts from the season opener on. He had a good, not great year in AA, but it definitely wasn't something to have a guy skip AAA. Plus, it's not like he's strung multiple good years together. The speed and fielding is all probably good enough, but it's the batting I'm worried about. I will be shocked if he does he hits above .235 with a reasonable amount of XBH. The extra year of team control isn't the main reason, but I also think it's another small incentive. Give the job to Benson and see how he can do. He's 25 and it's now or never with him, so we may as well see. I think that's the right move for the future. .

 

Uhh, if you think Hicks will be a strikeout machine, you'll love the Air Conditioning that Benson would provide to Target Field this spring.

[glunn]

Please consider this a caution to all posters that the word "idiot" is highly charged, and personal attacks violate the TD policy.

 

This thread has had some great debate between people who totally and passionately disagree. Such debate is an important part of TD. HOWEVER, please keep the debate respectful.

[The Wise One]

As a long-time Ray-o-phile, and frustrated with the 21st Century-long Twins futility with the AL East, your words are aptly put. And it isn't really the Twin's futility on the field, it's the inability of the club to take Rays-like organizational steps to become more consistently competitive with the East, especially considering that during most of this era, the Twins have been positioned to carry a larger payroll and had superior competitive advantages to the Rays- in positional talent- and up to more recently, superior pitching talent, as well.

 

By your reverence for how the Tampa Rays do business then you ought to love Ryan. The team hea crafted from 2001-2006 averaged only one less win per year than the Tampa team has over the last 5.

[jokin]

Personally... I can't get behind any argument that comes with the implication that 2013 is a lost season before the season has begun.

 

No matter how realistic that statement may seem to be to some. I hope that decisions are made based upon today and tomorrow.

 

The question to me is this... Is Hicks much better than Mastro right now? Forget about potential.... We all believe that Hicks is better potentially... What about right now... Is Hicks clearly better right now?

 

if he is just a little better right now... Wait a little while and let him do some more cooking in Rochester to cement it and preserve the year of team control... If he is a ton better... Let him start opening day in Minnesota.

 

Hicks had a great year last year but he didn't have the greatest years prior. A little patience won't kill this club to find out what we have before you kill a year for no improvement over Mastro or slight improvement over Mastro.

 

RB, I'm with you on everthing in your post, sans your opening statements. The club's offseason actions strongly tipped their hand that the bulk of their decision-making is based upon "tomorrow", not "today". Thus, the selling to the public that cutting the payroll another 25% and then celebrating the Correia signing as your headline FA acquisition and stripping the top of your order and your keystone defensive players (with no obvious heir-apparents) for 2 minor league pitchers and a question mark SP, and no effort to bolster other obvious holes as much of your AL Central competition is doing precisely the opposite- is the Twins silent scream: "2013 is a lost season". How else should a loyal fan interpret the current situation?