A look at Joe Nathan's Hall of Fame chances

[Collin Kottke]

[FONT=arial]Last night we saw future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera be the set-up man for former Twins closer and current Texas Ranger Joe Nathan. Rivera was in the game in the eighth inning to secure his appearance in the game, but is it possible we saw a one-two punch of future Hall of Famers?[/FONT][FONT=arial]
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[FONT=arial]It's tough for relief pitchers to break into the Hall but Nathan, by the end of his career, might have the right number of saves to punch a ticket to Cooperstown. Nathan currently sits at 328 saves which is the 13th most in the history of baseball. So far this year Nathan has 30 saves and once he reaches 44 he'll pass Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers for 10th all-time.[/FONT]
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[FONT=arial]Nathan is currently 38 years old and probably doesn't have more than two or three shut-the-door-closer years left in his arm. So Father Time's clock is ticking loudly for Nathan. Let's say Nathan reaches the 345 career saves mark this year (47 saves on the year) and do some math from there.[/FONT]
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[FONT=arial]In years that Nathan has been healthy (and a closer), he has never saved fewer than 36 games in a season. Let's say Nathan notches 35 saves each of these next two seasons after hitting the 345 mark this year. That means Nathan will end the 2015 season with 415 saves, good for sixth all-time and be one of only six to save over 400 ballgames.[/FONT]
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[FONT=arial]Not even Dennis Eckersley saved over 400 games. The problem is that, at the moment, no one else with 400 saves is in the Hall. Granted, Mariano and Trevor Hoffman will be in, but that's after careers that saw them chalk up 600-plus saves. This total would put Nathan in a group with Lee Smith, John Franco and Billy Wagner. Franco is already off the Hall of Fame ballot. Smith is probably not going to get in after his highest voting percentage, 50.6% in 2012, dropped to 47.8% this year. Billy Wagner is not yet eligible for the Hall.[/FONT]
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[FONT=arial]For Nathan's sake, Wagner had best be enshrined. The two are very comparable: Wagner had seven All-Star appearance and Nathan has six, Wagner pitched 16 seasons and if Nathan pitches two more he will have pitched 15. [/FONT]
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[FONT=arial]This debate will clear-up in a couple years when Wagner become Hall of Fame eligible and Nathan probably hangs it up; until then it's a fun debate to have. Joe Nathan is clearly a great closer: the question is will he be enshrined where the greats go for eternity.[/FONT]

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