What Kind of Return Would You Need to Trade Byron Buxton?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wasn't exactly sure how to go about the inflation part, so I went with overall inflation instead of top contract inflation.  

That might be a more accurate number for Buxton anyway, considering his inconsistency and durability issues to date. Assuming he doesn't finish this season with a 1.246 OPS, I don't see him getting a Betts-level contract, although he could still do quite well.

[Rigby]

Looking at you San Diego.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

From day one, Berrios has always been clear that he's willing to bet on himself (and good for him). It shouldn't surprise any of us a deal has not been reached, as he's always seemed eager to either reach free agency or get close enough that his value is maximized in a contract.

 

I'd like an extension.

 

But either way, the Twins could also afford him as a free agent. He's been a good pitcher, but he hasn't been at the same level as Gerrit Cole or Trevor Bauer when they hit the market.

 

Though, it probably goes without saying, that the preceding sentence now likely unleashed the karma required for him reach that level in 2022, so the team better make the most of it.

[dbminn]

I'd love to see the Twins sign Buxton at the end of the year. He will get at least $200 million on the open market if he plays 100+ games per year through 2022. None of his injuries have hurt his speed or his arm. When he does slow down, his arm and HR power are more than enough for RF.

 

If the Twins continue to struggle, I'd consider trading Berrios this season. There may never be a better trade market for a SP:

• Two SD starters are out with Tommy John surgery. Paddack has been out with Covid and another SP, Dinelson Lamet, continues to have arm troubles.  
• Dustin May is a TJ victim and Tony Gonsolin has shoulder inflammation for the Dodgers. 
• The Braves only have four solid pieces in their rotation.
• The Yankees can barely piece together a full rotation. 

All but the Yankees have prospects to send back. The Braves might have to make a 3-way trade to get the Twins a SP. They have Pache and Waters, both elite CF prospects. A Padres trade might include multiple players on both sides to get MacKenzie Gore. The Dodgers have Josiah Gray to offer.

 

What do you think?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd love to see the Twins sign Buxton at the end of the year. He will get at least $200 million on the open market if he plays 100+ games per year through 2022. None of his injuries have hurt his speed or his arm. When he does slow down, his arm and HR power are more than enough for RF.

 

If the Twins continue to struggle, I'd consider trading Berrios this season. There may never be a better trade market for a SP:

• Two SD starters are out with Tommy John surgery. Paddack has been out with Covid and another SP, Dinelson Lamet, continues to have arm troubles.  
• Dustin May is a TJ victim and Tony Gonsolin has shoulder inflammation for the Dodgers. 
• The Braves only have four solid pieces in their rotation.
• The Yankees can barely piece together a full rotation. 

All but the Yankees have prospects to send back. The Braves might have to make a 3-way trade to get the Twins a SP. They have Pache and Waters, both elite CF prospects. A Padres trade might include multiple players on both sides to get MacKenzie Gore. The Dodgers have Josiah Gray to offer.

 

What do you think?

 

I'm trying to figure out why Gore isn't in the majors....other than that, I'd like him in return somehow.

[Nine of twelve]

I'm not going to even attempt to say what an equitable trade would be. But I will say two things.

 

One, a player, no matter who he is, should be traded if the return results in a net improvement of the organization.

 

Two, any time a very high-profile player is traded away or traded for, the GM had damn well better win the trade. If he or she doesn't, his or her reputation is shot and so is his or her career. (see Lynn, Mike.)

[D.C Twins]

Unfortunately, I strongly believe that not only have the killer Bs decided long ago to bet on themselves, but they have also decided long ago that they will not sign on with the Twins.

 

I think that they both want to maximize their chances to win and added $$ opportunities outside baseball in a large market (and I think Buxton was fed up with management when there was too much input on his swing....he essentially said that he stopped listening to anyone else and went back to his way)_

 

Long story short..... not only will they definitely go to free agency and be offered more money elsewhere.... they also don't want to come back to the Twins.

 

We need to accept this and maximize return...THIS SEASON

[Linus]

Bu xton is the most important player to this franchise since Kirby. It sucks that he didn’t hit his stride earlier as his cheap years are done. You have to try and sign him but I’m afraid Falvine made a huge mistake messing with his service time.

[The Wise One]

 

Buxton should have been signed 2 years ago, when it was feasible. At the latest, thus past off season.

Whatever window there was to get it done is almost certainly closed.

If the Twins are out of it by late June, they should absolutely trade Buxton. Probably Berrios too.

I have recollections that both Berrios and Buxton turned down contract negotiations. The lines used here were similar to "They are betting on themselves". Security would be why you take the contract. Wanting to get what the top players get is why you turn it down. Both would look wise now for not doing so. 

[dex8425]

I'd call the Padres. I'd take Gore for either Berrios or Buxton, they pick one. I doubt they do that deal though. I'd throw in Smeltzer if they want SP depth. 

[Dodecahedron]

Buxton is still an injury risk, so it seems doubtful the team would get anywhere near his ceiling or even median value in a trade. There is little question the Twins took a dive when they tried this the last time and traded off Santana.

 

If the Twins and Buxton cannot agree on long-term contract terms, if I were the GM I would just keep him as long as possible. Give him whatever he asks for in arbitration next year, do a qualifying offer the year after, then let him go. The Twins would get his peak years and some other team can give him cash to watch him decline.

 

But hopefully the two sides can come together to keep him in a Twins uniform.

[Number3]

So 28 games into the season and Buxton is playing out of his mind. That is the known. The unknown is in the next 134 games. I predict Buxton will play about 100 of those games, if that many, and will finish about .270/25  home runs. Truly is amazing that the discussion now is to go into another rebuild mode after 1 good season  (again, 2020 doesn't count) and tanking in the playoffs as usual. Re visit all of this after the next 50 games or so. Until the last 28 games Buxton has been an overall pain in the backside and he has far to go to prove himself as a day to day reliable player instead of a player who can sit out over a headache at any time. Don't forget Cruze will be gone as well and Sano is toast.

[dex8425]

 

Buxton is still an injury risk, so it seems doubtful the team would get anywhere near his ceiling or even median value in a trade. There is little question the Twins took a dive when they tried this the last time and traded off Santana.

 

If the Twins and Buxton cannot agree on long-term contract terms, if I were the GM I would just keep him as long as possible. Give him whatever he asks for in arbitration next year, do a qualifying offer the year after, then let him go. The Twins would get his peak years and some other team can give him cash to watch him decline.

 

But hopefully the two sides can come together to keep him in a Twins uniform.

I forgot about the QO year, but no way he takes the QO. Because of the injury risk there's no way I want to sign him to an extension for anywhere near what he's asking for, which is probably Lindor/Betts money. I would trade him now while his value is high if you can get a highly regarded AA or AAA prospect. Nate Pearson from Toronto? Gore from San Diego? Maybe you bring back Max Meyer, currently with Miami?

 

The team is 7 games below .500 already with a negative run differential after playing mostly very bad teams. 

[Dodecahedron]

 

I forgot about the QO year, but no way he takes the QO. Because of the injury risk there's no way I want to sign him to an extension for anywhere near what he's asking for, which is probably Lindor/Betts money. I would trade him now while his value is high if you can get a highly regarded AA or AAA prospect. Nate Pearson from Toronto? Gore from San Diego? Maybe you bring back Max Meyer, currently with Miami?

 

The team is 7 games below .500 already with a negative run differential after playing mostly very bad teams. 

 

I would wait until the team has more divisional games under their belt before selling.

 

Trading Buxton now guarantees a 100-loss season. Heck, maybe 110 losses. Yuck. 

[Major League Ready]

 

This is the Buxton we’ve been waiting for. I think they need to stay the course with Buxton the next two years. Player value can be calculated, but a World Series run would bring an amount of good publicity and good will that cannot be calculated.

 

How has that worked out for Traut / Pujlos and the Angels or Harper and the Phillies?  Those teams also had a huge revenue advantage they used to buy other high profile players. They have still been mediocre in spite of having superstars. It's time to recognize our core has not risen to the level necessary to support a WS run. Sano / Kepler / Polanco / Rosario / and Berrios have all had periods of greatness but none of them have been the kind of players that take you deep in the playoffs. 

 

The Whitesox traded away a couple very good players and the players returned in those trades are not a significant part of their success. The return for Geinke (Cane / Escobar) was a huge part of the KC run. Trading Chapman in a down year helped the Yankees for several years.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

How has that worked out for Traut / Pujlos and the Angels or Harper and the Phillies?  Those teams also had a huge revenue advantage they used to buy other high profile players. They have still been mediocre in spite of having superstars. It's time to recognize our core has not risen to the level necessary to support a WS run. Sano / Kepler / Polanco / Rosario / and Berrios have all had periods of greatness but none of them have been the kind of players that take you deep in the playoffs. 

 

The Whitesox traded away a couple very good players and the players returned in those trades are not a significant part of their success. The return for Geinke (Cane / Escobar) was a huge part of the KC run. Trading Chapman in a down year helped the Yankees for several years.

How has what worked? I didn’t say anything about signing Buxton to a mega-contract like Trout or Pujols is on.

 

The choice was between trading Buxton or not trading him. I say keep him and see what happens.

 

Washington kept Strasburg in his walk year, they won the Series, and Strasburg signed back with Washington.

 

You want to trade Buxton for prospects and thereby push out the contention window even further. You are entitled to that opinion. I’m entitled to mine.

[Taildragger8791]

Buxton has never proven himself over anything close to a full season and we're talking about contract comparables for guys who demonstrated multiple years of greatness before getting paid. He has 6 years of poor AVG/OBP to offset.The only way Buxton gets paid like that is if he plays out of his mind and stays healthy through this year and next, at which point he's a FA and we'd get outbid anyways. It's kind of a crummy lose-lose proposition for the Twins.

[Major League Ready]

 

How has what worked? I didn’t say anything about signing Buxton to a mega-contract like Trout or Pujols is on.

The choice was between trading Buxton or not trading him. I say keep him and see what happens.

Washington kept Strasburg in his walk year, they won the Series, and Strasburg signed back with Washington.

You want to trade Buxton for prospects and thereby push out the contention window even further. You are entitled to that opinion. I’m entitled to mine.

 

The context was not meant to be signing a big extension. even if he continues to play at this extraordinary level, we don't have the pieces to go with him. The point is one superstar does not make a contender. Therefore, I don't agree we are in a serious window of contention.. 

 

Having said this, I am not ready to trade him away either. All of this discussion is premature. Let's see what our team looks like at the deadline. We will also have a much needed 3 months of Milb to get a look at our prospects to see just how much help we have coming. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The context was not meant to be signing a big extension. even if he continues to play at this extraordinary level, we don't have the pieces to go with him. The point is one superstar does not make a contender. Therefore, I don't agree we are in a serious window of contention.. 

 

Having said this, I am not ready to trade him away either. All of this discussion is premature. Let's see what our team looks like at the deadline. We will also have a much needed 3 months of Milb to get a look at our prospects to see just how much help we have coming.

 

I disagree that we don’t have the pieces. This is largely the same lineup that it was in 2019.

[Vanimal46]

I disagree that we don’t have the pieces. This is largely the same lineup that it was in 2019.

The core of players we saw have career years in 2019 (Kepler, Polanco) have not been the same players since. And why we’re in this position as an underperforming 11-19 team.

 

Below are all stats from Nick Nelson’s Twitter, not accounting for today’s game.

 

“In 2019, Max Kepler hit 36 home runs and slugged .519. Then, he homered in his first 2 PAs of 2020.

 

Since then, he's hitting .213/.302/.370 with 7 HRs in 268 PAs. As a starting right fielder.”

 

“ Jorge Polanco -- starting SS in the 2019 All-Star Game -- has hit .242/.294/.339 since start of 2020. His 75 wRC+ span ranks 138th out of 148 qualified MLB players during that span.”

 

Sano didn’t have a career year in 2019, but was still signed to a medium term contract extension. He’s been mostly lousy since signing that contract.

 

I agree with MLR that it’s too early for the Twins to have this discussion of trading Buxton. Do I think they’ll actually trade him? Probably not this year. Still, it’s not off limits for fans to start thinking ahead if this indeed a year we miss the playoffs. I think they should seriously consider the opportunity cost at play.

 

Buxton for 2 years and a competitive balance pick when he leaves.

 

Vs.

 

The potentially solid return for 1.5 years of Buxton this July, or the more modest return of Buxton as a rental next year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Still, it’s not off limits for fans to start thinking ahead if this indeed a year we miss the playoffs. I think they should seriously consider the opportunity cost at play.

Buxton for 2 years and a competitive balance pick when he leaves.

Vs.

The potentially solid return for 1.5 years of Buxton this July, or the more modest return of Buxton as a rental next year.

Most fans are thinking about winning and watching their favorite players. Only geeks on Twins Daily talk about stuff like this.

 

Trading Buxton will have a cascading effect that won’t be pleasant. Someone else here described it as a house of cards. I agree. The whole Falvey+Levine project probably collapses if Buxton is traded. But as you say, we are not at that point yet, either way.

[Danchat]

I hate to say it, but I'm on board the Trade Buxton bandwagon, and this was before his newest injury that happened today. Reasons why:

 

-Buxton has a short track record of hitting well in the majors. Other names mentioned in this thread like Mauer and Rendon had large sample sizes and many years of strong hitting under their belt. Buxton has had a crazy first month in 2021, but how much will he carry forward into 2023 and on?

 

-Buxton is one of the best defensive CFs to ever play the game, but as he ages he will get slower, thus detracting from his value in future seasons

 

-The biggest reason - he's made of glass. He's played in over 100 games just once in 6 years. He's always getting hurt, nicked up, and has only been able to record 6 PAs in 6 potential postseason games. The Twins need guys who can come through in playoff games, and Buxton has proven he can't stay healthy to get into them.

 

-Sell high! I know many on Twins Daily say on a daily basis "trade Sano! Trade Cave!" despite the obvious fact that they have no trade value, but in order to truly maximize value, you have to trade a player when they're at their best. The Rays do this quite a lot and usually come out on top, despite their trades usually looking awful on paper. If this team is not going to compete in 2021 or 2022, then you have to trade him this year. Now, it's impossible to tell whether we will compete in 2022, but at some point it will have to be determined whether this roster needs a reboot. It's hard to say that since most of us thought the Twins' playoff window was going to be open for a while longer... but at some point we'll have to come to grips with the fact that the 2019 roster is not coming back, and this roster is getting old.

[USAFChief]

Just some food for thought: let's see what the new MLB/MLBPA agreement looks like (the current one expires after this season) before we factor "compensation picks" or "qualifying offers" into any equation.

 

I suspect both of those things are gone or drastically reduced starting in 2022.

 

But I obviously don't know either.

[nicksaviking]

 

I disagree that we don’t have the pieces. This is largely the same lineup that it was in 2019.

 

But that team was specifically built to break home run records and then the league went and de-juiced the ball. No one's to blame, it was a bad break, but it might be wise to re-evaluate how to build this club.

 

They gave extensions to Polanco, Kepler, Sano and for some reason Dobnak, while for reasons we'll likely never know, they couldn't do the same with the two players who mattered most. Seems to me there are now really only two options, cross our fingers and hope our square pieces find a way into the round holes, or regroup and re-engineer this club to better succeed in this ever changing game.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I hate to say it, but I'm on board the Trade Buxton bandwagon, and this was before his newest injury that happened today. Reasons why:

 

 

-The biggest reason - he's made of glass. He's played in over 100 games just once in 6 years. He's always getting hurt, nicked up, and has only been able to record 6 PAs in 6 potential postseason games. The Twins need guys who can come through in playoff games, and Buxton has proven he can't stay healthy to get into them.

 

 

Everything Dan said plus I would expand on this one part: a new contract is an investment.  The team is taking their scarce resources and electing to allocate it to a player.  As an investment what can we say about Buxton?

 

Wonderful dude.  He wants to be great.  He plays the game with serious passion.  From a personality standpoint he's everything you want.

 

But the number one ability you need in a baseball investment is availability.  Buxton, even this year as he is wowing us with his offense, has an injury list going that sounds more like what you'd find after a car accident than some 30 baseball games.  He's getting these injuries when his body is at it's absolute best for dealing with recovery and resistance.  He won't be any better at avoiding injury in his playing career than right now and he's still sat 20% of the season.  And this is the LEAST hurt he's been for the team in his tenure!  I've been arguing for years every time we see the "Buxton for MVP" spring training article that he's all projection until he actually stays in the lineup every day.  Nothing about this year, as well as he's doing, dissuades that primary concern.

 

On a day where a silly contract was finally put to bed out west, it's hard not to imagine a similar length for Byron Buxton would look much the same in about the same amount of time.  I feel confident a Buxton extension would become an albatross all too easy in hindsight. 

 

Trade him now when you might get someone willing to gamble and forget his history in the name of his dynamic play so far.  I will take no joy in seeing the young man move on, but this is a business investment and the risks are absurdly bad.

[rv78]

Sadly it's a danged if I do and danged if I don't situation. Add to that the danged what they've already done. Messing with his service time has burned the bridge to any sort of contract he's probably willing to sign with this club. His injury history says you don't give him one. His flashes of great play when he's able to play wish you could lock him up for the rest of his career if he'd stay on the field. So, you have to answer the question, do you give him a big contract when he's only a part-time player? I say no and sell high. The high time is now. This team isn't going anywhere with the curent roster of over-rated under-achievers. Take as many top level prospects as you can get for him and if the door hits him in the rear on the way out of town the team that is getting him better hope the door didn't break something.

[beckmt]

As I see it the Dodgers, Padres, and Toronto have the pieces to make a Buxton trade worthwhile, and by bringing Toronto in you may force the Yankees hand to give up the top end of their farm system to keep Toronto from way passing them for several years.  Leverage what you have.

Then you can work on trading Kepler and Sano (later Polonco) to cost conscience teams for prospects or teams just starting what they think are their run.

This will leave us with Kirlloff and Laurach, Arrenz, Donaldson, next year or shortly after Lewis and hopefully pitching pickup up in the trades, plus bullpen help.  Maybe our FA should look at the Tampa Bay model, it seems to work. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Just some food for thought: let's see what the new MLB/MLBPA agreement looks like (the current one expires after this season) before we factor "compensation picks" or "qualifying offers" into any equation.

I suspect both of those things are gone or drastically reduced starting in 2022.

But I obviously don't know either.

This is definitely true, though I hope they keep the compensation pick for the team losing the player and simply remove the draft punishment from the purchasing team. That makes the most sense to maintain competitive balance without damaging free agent prices.

[Dodecahedron]

If Buxton is made out of glass and not worthy of a big contract, but he is very worthy right now, keep him until the end of his current contract. 

 

If he is not worthy of a big contract, he won't net a big return in a trade.

[nicksaviking]

 

Just some food for thought: let's see what the new MLB/MLBPA agreement looks like (the current one expires after this season) before we factor "compensation picks" or "qualifying offers" into any equation.

I suspect both of those things are gone or drastically reduced starting in 2022.

But I obviously don't know either.

 

Yeah, I could see the Twins getting burned by league changes, though they could get burned by making a move, but they could also get burned by not making a move.

 

At this point, it just feels like however they proceed will probably come back to bite them.