What Kind of Return Would You Need to Trade Byron Buxton?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not sure I understand the question, but in the case of Betts, it was clear he couldn't be bought out of his free agent years at any price. I'd just like to know, are these guys open to extensions, or is it a hard stop.

 

Because this team has been extremely averse to taking on long term free agent contracts, with Donaldson being the only one. I mean, to me it would seem like the only reason to do that is BECAUSE they planned on locking up the internal star players who were going to cost a lot of money.

 

I mean in addition to Randy Dobnak of course.

 

If he's said he's not signing here....what would you want in return to not keep him the next 2 years?

[Vanimal46]

For years. This is approximately the same language as when a team is "in on" a few major free agents every year. With the same outcome.

 

I agree. That’s what we have to go on though.

 

https://twitter.com/dwolfsonkstp/status/1389241562937372676?s=21

[Dman]

 

A World Series run would be worth keeping both Buxton and Berrios, even if they walk in free agency. I agree, no guarantee that that happens, even if they keep them. I think it’s a gamble they have to take. However, they need to fix the pitching, quick.

If they trade Buxton, that feels like giving up, and they might as well trade Donaldson and a couple of these other guys too, and I think it becomes a cascade into mediocrity at that point. Good teams don’t sell off their talent every three years.

Just my opinions.

 

I don't think you are wrong the whole thing feels like a house of cards almost no matter what they do.  They would need to come up with 30M AAV or more for likely 8 to 10 years to keep Buxton.  Where are they going to find that kind of money?  And if they keep Buxton and then lose Cruz and Donaldson where in this lineup where do we get that production back. That is assuming we can even trade Donaldson and re-coop that money to keep Buxton?  I just don't see payroll moving much beyond where it is right now. Maybe another8 to 10 Million up if Jim is feeling crazy but lower revenue teams like us don't live in rarified air for longer than a season or two.

 

The other part of signing Buc long term is the injury history.  He is one bad hamstring pull away from losing his top end speed maybe a concussion or two away from a Justin Morneau situation.  What if you pay for 10 years and get three to five good years can we afford that?  And while that 30Mil contract doesn't look that bad now what happens when it comes time to pay Kirilloff or Larnach or Arraez or whatever other star player players develops in the next 3 to 5 years, will there be money to pay them?  Making FA moves will be harder when carrying that much salary for one player as well.

 

There are tough decisions that need to made now and into the future.

[Taildragger8791]

Supposedly they tried, just like they did with Sano/Polanco/Kepler. But Buxton and Berrios are betting on themselves and will probably get paid handsomely as a result.

[nicksaviking]

 

If he's said he's not signing here....what would you want in return to not keep him the next 2 years?

 

Ah yeah. Definitely young upside pitching, though I'd consider a top end SS or CF prospect if made available as well.

 

Though he might be able to snag both if he keeps hitting.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ah yeah. Definitely young upside pitching, though I'd consider a top end SS or CF prospect if made available as well.

 

Though he might be able to snag both if he keeps hitting.

 

Almost no SS prospects would work, as far as I can tell. They are mostly in the majors, not touchable, or play for lower revenue teams.

 

ATL and LAA have very good CF prospects, of course, they also have good/awesome CF......so, not sure that works.

[nicksaviking]

 

I agree. That’s what we have to go on though.

https://twitter.com/dwolfsonkstp/status/1389241562937372676?s=21

 

So no superstars unless we luck into a deal in which the player gets the short end of the stick.

 

I think they better rethink this strategy.

[jctwins]

Could someone explain how this is the same or different than Joe Mauer 2009?

 

Player developed in your system, great performance, off and on, then especially on in a high leverage year. Reasons to believe revenue would go up in the future. 

 

We know now Mauer never played up to that contract, but it was the right thing to do at that time.

 

Tell me why I'm right or wrong. Not trying to be controversial.

[nicksaviking]

I mean, I don't like it, but with Buxton's inability to play even 100 games a year, I can see how this one kind of ran off the rails with Buxton at this time appearing to be the one with the higher ground justification.

 

With Berrios? That one makes no sense to me. He's been consistent and healthy, he should have been extended, and this whole time it seems like that's exactly why the team has been keeping future money off of the books. The only justification I'd be comfortable with is if Berrios' side has been waiting until the end of this year for negotiation because that's what his best comps did, Luis Severino and Lance McCullers. If so, he's been better and healthier than both, so the Twins better be ready to pay him more than those two.

[Dman]

 

So no superstars unless we luck into a deal in which the player gets the short end of the stick.

 

I think they better rethink this strategy.

 

I think that is why Chicago took the risk of extending some of their top end players right from the start.  Once they have some money they don't need to extend especially on team friendly deals.  Still risky that way but less risky than looking at 30M AAV deals on long term contracts.  You van lose on a couple of those and survive.  Lose on a later deal and that hurts for a long time.

[Dman]

 

I mean, I don't like it, but with Buxton's inability to play even 100 games a year, I can see how this one kind of ran off the rails with Buxton at this time appearing to be the one with the higher ground justification.

 

With Berrios? That one makes no sense to me. He's been consistent and healthy, he should have been extended, and this whole time it seems like that's exactly why the team has been keeping future money off of the books. The only justification I'd be comfortable with is if Berrios' side has been waiting until the end of this year for negotiation because that's what his best comps did, Luis Severino and Lance McCullers. If so, he's been better and healthier than both, so the Twins better be ready to pay him more than those two.

 

I agree.  They had to have cheaped out on Berrios.  Both those deals would have been in line and likely worked for Jose.  He has been healthy too which is a good thing to have in a pitcher.  I guess they believe in the guys they have coming up but he looks gone to me now that they waited so long.

[spanman2]

 

What has Buxton's price gone up to these days. Five years $100 million with an option year or two? Would Berrios be pushing similar territory?

 

Wasn't the whole purpose of Target Field was to create a revenue stream to keep your own free agents (pandemic aside). 

 

Yes, Buxton has to fight the full-season image, but you can move him to a corner at some point. He could also come up lame. Come mid-July if he keeps close to this pace, what kind of haul would get, mostly prospects - and we know how that pans out.

 

But, yes, right now he has the most value ever!

That was certainly one of the reasons to build Target Field per ownership/management.  That can't be disputed.

[MNT1996]

 

Could someone explain how this is the same or different than Joe Mauer 2009?

 

Player developed in your system, great performance, off and on, then especially on in a high leverage year. Reasons to believe revenue would go up in the future. 

 

We know now Mauer never played up to that contract, but it was the right thing to do at that time.

 

Tell me why I'm right or wrong. Not trying to be controversial.

 

Joe Mauer was signed for 8 years/184 mil, which is 23 mil/year. The Twins could definitely do that with Buxton, but if Buxton continues his hot streak and possibly even wins the MVP his asking price is probably going to go into Mike Trout/Arenado/Machado range, which will be like 30 mil/year. The Twins could probably do that for a couple years, but if a large market team like the Yankees or Houston offers him that same amount for a longer period of time obviously Buxton would take that over a shorter term deal. 

 

Now I think the Twins might need to break the bank here in order to secure Buxton and keep their window open, but it's going to run the risk of them not being able to spend as much on free agent pitching. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I agree.  They had to have cheaped out on Berrios.  Both those deals would have been in line and likely worked for Jose.  He has been healthy too which is a good thing to have in a pitcher.  I guess they believe in the guys they have coming up but he looks gone to me now that they waited so long.

 

Well both of those deals occurred one year before the pitchers hit free agency, so if that's the dance everyone is modeling a Berrios deal on, there's still time, and that's a reasonable assumption.

 

The Twins just better not be expecting a "team friendly" deal if they have any intention of keeping him.

[twinbythebay]

 

Could someone explain how this is the same or different than Joe Mauer 2009?

 

Player developed in your system, great performance, off and on, then especially on in a high leverage year. Reasons to believe revenue would go up in the future. 

 

We know now Mauer never played up to that contract, but it was the right thing to do at that time.

 

Tell me why I'm right or wrong. Not trying to be controversial.

In my mind, the main differences are:

 

1. Injury history. I think Mauer was mostly healthy before signing his big contract, whereas we're all well aware of Buxton's injury history. Even though he's played like a superstar so far this season, he has yet to prove he can consistently play at least 120 games a season.

 

2. Wanting to stay in Minnesota. Mauer was a hometown kid, and I don't think he ever really wanted to leave Minnesota. I'm not certain, but I don't think this is the case with Buxton. I think it's highly unlikely he'll be willing to give the Twins any sort of "hometown discount". 

[SwainZag]

 

Joe Mauer was signed for 8 years/184 mil, which is 23 mil/year. The Twins could definitely do that with Buxton, but if Buxton continues his hot streak and possibly even wins the MVP his asking price is probably going to go into Mike Trout/Arenado/Machado range, which will be like 30 mil/year. The Twins could probably do that for a couple years, but if a large market team like the Yankees or Houston offers him that same amount for a longer period of time obviously Buxton would take that over a shorter term deal. 

 

Now I think the Twins might need to break the bank here in order to secure Buxton and keep their window open, but it's going to run the risk of them not being able to spend as much on free agent pitching. 

 

That contract was signed 12 years ago.  $23M in 2009 is ~$28.5M or so in 2021 dollars.  Offer him a Mauer-esk contract.

[4twinsJA]

Twins have multiple FAs next year, Cruz, Simmons, Happ, Pineda, Colome, Shoemaker- these add up to around 45 M. Twins should have some money to budget for at least one of Buxton/Berrios maybe both. Twins need some of their prospects to develop into MLB players over this season so don't have to sign other FAs. 

[MNT1996]

 

That contract was signed 12 years ago.  $23M in 2009 is ~$28.5M or so in 2021 dollars.  Offer him a Mauer-esk contract.

 

I think they should for that amount range, but I think the issue will be for the length. If they Twins offer Buxton 30M for 8 years and the Yankees offer him 30M for 10 years, then he's going to take the long-term deal. It's going to be extremely risky to match any offer from a big market team that has a lot more payroll. 

[Vanimal46]

Twins have multiple FAs next year, Cruz, Simmons, Happ, Pineda, Colome, Shoemaker- these add up to around 45 M. Twins should have some money to budget for at least one of Buxton/Berrios maybe both. Twins need some of their prospects to develop into MLB players over this season so don't have to sign other FAs.

Didn’t we try the studs and scrubs methodology building rosters with Mauer and Morneau? Didn’t work out too well. Buxton and Berrios’ extensions would sap up almost all of that $45 million. Then we’ll be left to find a slugger to replace Cruz, starting SS because Lewis isn’t playing for the Twins on day 1, 3 starting pitchers and additional bullpen arms.

 

Unless the payroll skyrockets to $150+ million I don’t see how it’s feasible.

[ashbury]

 

Could someone explain how this is the same or different than Joe Mauer 2009?

 

Player developed in your system, great performance, off and on, then especially on in a high leverage year. Reasons to believe revenue would go up in the future. 

 

We know now Mauer never played up to that contract, but it was the right thing to do at that time.

 

Tell me why I'm right or wrong. Not trying to be controversial.

Joe was the home town guy who made it big. If they needed to, the team could paint Buxton as the bad guy in the negotiations, whereas that option wouldn't really have flown in Joe's case.

 

But, very similar, yes. The lose-lose scenario for the FO.
 

[beckmt]

I think like Kirby you have to pay Buxton.  Don't know when the TV contract ends, but that increase should be enough to help cover the back end of his contract.  See if he will take like 10/250 or in that range you are confortable with.  If not you will have to trade him soon and get the Kings ransom out of a club with a deep farm system (Besides maybe you could get the Yankees, Dodgers and Padres in a bidding war).

[nicksaviking]

 

Didn’t we try the studs and scrubs methodology building rosters with Mauer and Morneau? Didn’t work out too well. Buxton and Berrios’ extensions would sap up almost all of that $45 million. Then we’ll be left to find a slugger to replace Cruz, starting SS because Lewis isn’t playing for the Twins on day 1, 3 starting pitchers and additional bullpen arms.

Unless the payroll skyrockets to $150+ million I don’t see how it’s feasible.

 

I don't think the Twins were ever in a salary crunch with Mauer's contract though. I think they liked the PERCEPTION that they were, but I don't think it was ever really an issue.

 

I don't know that they tried the studs and scrubs approach, I just think Smith and Terry Ryan, in his second stint, were just really bad at evaluating free agents. But I'd think the studs and scrubs situation is only required if they insist on experience over youth, because as long as they keep the farm ready, they can always call up the cheap 22-year-olds to fill out the roster. But obviously, that's going to be a mental block that needs to be cleared for the organization first.

[SwainZag]

 

I think they should for that amount range, but I think the issue will be for the length. If they Twins offer Buxton 30M for 8 years and the Yankees offer him 30M for 10 years, then he's going to take the long-term deal. It's going to be extremely risky to match any offer from a big market team that has a lot more payroll. 

 

Ideally you offer that Buck this year or this offseason before he gets to free agency.  If they wait until he is a free agent he is as good as gone.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Could someone explain how this is the same or different than Joe Mauer 2009?

 

Player developed in your system, great performance, off and on, then especially on in a high leverage year. Reasons to believe revenue would go up in the future. 

 

We know now Mauer never played up to that contract, but it was the right thing to do at that time.

 

Tell me why I'm right or wrong. Not trying to be controversial.

 

I second the other responses you've received. But I'd also add that Mauer was partly paid for delivering many prior years of elite performance as well as being the face of the Twins, which pays back in merchandise and ticket sales. Buxton is only now starting to show elite performance and will almost certainly fall back from Trout-level numbers to something more reasonable, and then he still has to keep it up for a full season to establish his value even at that level. It's so risky to offer an 8+ year contract for a guy who's value largely comes from defense and speed and doesn't draw walks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

2. Wanting to stay in Minnesota. Mauer was a hometown kid, and I don't think he ever really wanted to leave Minnesota. I'm not certain, but I don't think this is the case with Buxton. I think it's highly unlikely he'll be willing to give the Twins any sort of "hometown discount". 

Buxton's professed fondness for Sheboygan brand sausages says otherwise!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That contract was signed 12 years ago.  $23M in 2009 is ~$28.5M or so in 2021 dollars.  Offer him a Mauer-esk contract.

MLB inflation? Mauer's deal was the fourth-largest ever at the time, by both total value and AAV.

 

The fourth-largest deal now by total value is Tatis Jr. at 13/340; by AAV, it's Rendon at $35 mil per year.

[jctwins]

 

Didn’t we try the studs and scrubs methodology building rosters with Mauer and Morneau? Didn’t work out too well. Buxton and Berrios’ extensions would sap up almost all of that $45 million. Then we’ll be left to find a slugger to replace Cruz, starting SS because Lewis isn’t playing for the Twins on day 1, 3 starting pitchers and additional bullpen arms.

Unless the payroll skyrockets to $150+ million I don’t see how it’s feasible.

 

There is other back and forth about inflation, but isn't $150 today not that far away from when they were around $100 in the past? 

 

Again, the stadium was built to allow them to play in this arena. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

With Berrios? That one makes no sense to me. He's been consistent and healthy, he should have been extended, and this whole time it seems like that's exactly why the team has been keeping future money off of the books. The only justification I'd be comfortable with is if Berrios' side has been waiting until the end of this year for negotiation because that's what his best comps did, Luis Severino and Lance McCullers. If so, he's been better and healthier than both, so the Twins better be ready to pay him more than those two.

From day one, Berrios has always been clear that he's willing to bet on himself (and good for him). It shouldn't surprise any of us a deal has not been reached, as he's always seemed eager to either reach free agency or get close enough that his value is maximized in a contract.

[SwainZag]

 

MLB inflation? Mauer's deal was the fourth-largest ever at the time, by both total value and AAV.

 

The fourth-largest deal now by total value is Tatis Jr. at 13/340; by AAV, it's Rendon at $35 mil per year.

 

I wasn't exactly sure how to go about the inflation part, so I went with overall inflation instead of top contract inflation.  

[Vanimal46]

There is other back and forth about inflation, but isn't $150 today not that far away from when they were around $100 in the past?

 

Again, the stadium was built to allow them to play in this arena.

Payrolls have increased a bit over the years, but not as much as inflation I would guess. League average payroll this year is $120 million. And median payroll 10 years ago was around $100 million.

 

For the Twins to be in the top 10 of payroll, it’ll take Pohlad’s approval to spend that type of dough, or ripping up the undervalued TV contract and renegotiate for more revenue.

 

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm