What Kind of Return Would You Need to Trade Byron Buxton?

[Vanimal46]

Let’s drink a cold dose of reality as an 11-17 ball club. Unless Falvey and Levine zag compared to past history, it doesn’t look like our favorite team will be in a position to be buyers during the 2021 trading period.

 

Negotiating a new contract with Buxton will always be a tricky situation. Until hopefully this season, he hasn’t shown an ability to play more than 120 games a season. The window for him signing a team friendly extension has closed now that he is playing at an MVP level. The clock is ticking, with him approaching free agency after the 2022 season.

 

If he continues playing at a pace like this, there won’t be a better time for the Twins to capitalize on Buxton as an asset. I put our odds at slim to none we’ll pay the money to keep him throughout his 30s.

 

What would it take for you to accept trading Buxton by the trade deadline? Or would you rather he stay the next 2 years and accept what happens once he declines a QO?

[Vanimal46]

I’m of the belief that everyone has a price. Even if it takes the #1 prospect in baseball Wander Franco, say so. It’s boring to say he’s untouchable.

[D.C Twins]

It pains me to no end, but for the long term benefit of the team, of course he needs to be traded at peak value when there is ZERO chance we sign him in 1.5 year.

 

The only reason not to trade him this year is if you think we could ride him to a WS win next year before losing him and that looks VERY unlikely.

 

Again, I don't want to lose him, but we will, so it is really a question of getting max return

[Rosterman]

What has Buxton's price gone up to these days. Five years $100 million with an option year or two? Would Berrios be pushing similar territory?

 

Wasn't the whole purpose of Target Field was to create a revenue stream to keep your own free agents (pandemic aside). 

 

Yes, Buxton has to fight the full-season image, but you can move him to a corner at some point. He could also come up lame. Come mid-July if he keeps close to this pace, what kind of haul would get, mostly prospects - and we know how that pans out.

 

But, yes, right now he has the most value ever!

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

$20 million a year is a fair price if he never plays more than 110 games. If he plays at an MVP caliber for the next calendar year and healthy it’s probably $30+ million AAV.

[cHawk]

If we trade Buxton, it says we are punting the current window. The answer is to find a way to sign Buxton. The GM needs to be competent enough to do so.

[The Wise One]

A 20 million a year contract would be called a team friendly contract if he makes it through the year without more injury time. Considering Donaldson is shy of 22. prime years of Buxton should be worth more, That is if healthy.

[ashbury]

If we trade Buxton, it says we are punting the current window. The answer is to find a way to sign Buxton. The GM needs to be competent enough to do so.

An incompetent GM could sign him easily. There is no art at all to asking him "how much do you want?"

 

[cHawk]

 

An incompetent GM could sign him easily. There is no art at all to asking him "how much do you want?"
 

 

Fair enough. But there isn’t a reason to not keep him, unless we’re completely tearing this thing down and rebuilding.

[USAFChief]

If we trade Buxton, it says we are punting the current window. The answer is to find a way to sign Buxton. The GM needs to be competent enough to do so.

Buxton should have been signed 2 years ago, when it was feasible. At the latest, thus past off season.

 

Whatever window there was to get it done is almost certainly closed.

 

If the Twins are out of it by late June, they should absolutely trade Buxton. Probably Berrios too.

[ashbury]

Buxton should have been signed 2 years ago, when it was feasible. At the latest, thus past off season.

 

Whatever window there was to get it done is almost certainly closed.

 

If the Twins are out of it by late June, they should absolutely trade Buxton. Probably Berrios too.

The chain of logic looks inescapable. If I'm Dave St Peter or Jim Pohlad, I'm in the market for a new Chief Baseball Officer. And I never thought it would come to this, this soon. But the FO has bollixed up the contract negotiations for both Buxton and Berrios, it seems, starting by playing games with service time with a key player or two. Maybe the guys at the very top see it differently.

 

[MMMordabito]

Gore and Abrams

[RedBull34]

It certainly would be a lot.  If Buxton keeps up this pace, he makes far more than 5/100.  I mean, that almost Donaldson's deal.  I doubt he will keep up this pace, but a CF with his defense and an OPS on 900 has got to to be pushing $30 MM a year, even with his injury history.

 

IDK about punting the window, if the trade is right.  If the deal included a two near-ready top 100 prospects (SS and SP preferred) it might work out.  Lewis is probably closer to being ready as a CF then an SS with the last two years off, so he potentially could plug that hole.

 

I feel like this is how the Rays are constantly doing it, so to say that trading Buxton is closing the window feels wrong to me.  I could see Toronto maybe being a player?  I realize they have Springer, but he could be a corner OF.

[rdehring]

Not going to speculate on what contract he should be given to remain with the Twins. Just will say it needs to be done as the player the Twins rebuild around for the next decade. 

 

As far as trading him. No, no and no.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What would it take for you to accept trading Buxton by the trade deadline? Or would you rather he stay the next 2 years and accept what happens once he declines a QO?

This is the Buxton we’ve been waiting for. I think they need to stay the course with Buxton the next two years. Player value can be calculated, but a World Series run would bring an amount of good publicity and good will that cannot be calculated.

[Doctor Gast]

I hate to think about this but I've pondered this earlier. If we decide to do this we'll have to totally rebuild so we're looking at not only Buxton but his whole group (Berrios, Kepler,Polanco, Sano and Garver) which I'm sure some would be all in for that. The conclusion I came up with is that we can't.

Reason #1- Our big time commitment to Donaldson. We can't trade him, so we'll waste his talent and salary on a rebuilding team.

Reason #2- Our 40 man roster would not be able to handle the flood of prospects that would come in. Our 40 man is in deep trouble to lose valuable prospects, the way it is, now and in the future. Just imagine how many great prospects will be lost to the Rule 5 draft? Unbelievably amount.

So IMO we are stuck with the hand we have. The problem hasn't been Buxton doesn't want to sign (as I had supposed) but FO not willing to give him a fair offer and now they'll pay through their nose. Even if they don't sign Buxton, I'll still wouldn't want to trade him because he's so fascinating to watch.

We still have to confront our 40 man problem.

[Vanimal46]

This is the Buxton we’ve been waiting for. I think they need to stay the course with Buxton the next two years. Player value can be calculated, but a World Series run would bring an amount of good publicity and good will that cannot be calculated.

I don’t see a World Series run this year... Will we double down and be a $150 million payroll in 2022 to capitalize before Buxton hits free agency?

[Mike Sixel]

I don’t see a World Series run this year... Will we double down and be a $150 million payroll in 2022 to capitalize before Buxton hits free agency?

I agree, this team is not a contender. Maybe they can be if they promote some minor league pitchers, maybe.

[JW24]

The Twins will have the money to extend Buxton, and I think they should make every effort to do so. With how they manipulated his service time a handful of years ago, I think if he earns a massive extension with his play this year and next, the Twins should pay him.

 

But, to answer the question of what I would need now for Buxton if we were to trade him, I think Jasson Dominguez, Luis Gil, and Anthony Volpe would be what I would ask for. Baseball Trade Values has this as an overpay by the Yankees, mostly due to the massive hype behind Dominguez, but if I am the Twins, that is the package I start with and no chance I accept anything that does not include Dominguez.

[Dman]

 

Buxton should have been signed 2 years ago, when it was feasible. At the latest, thus past off season.

Whatever window there was to get it done is almost certainly closed.

If the Twins are out of it by late June, they should absolutely trade Buxton. Probably Berrios too.

 

yeah I am with you.  They needed to take the risk two years ago to have a chance to extend and they didn't take it so they knew this day was coming for both Berrios and Buxton.  Would need to be something really good for Buxton as he has league MVP potential.  There are injury concerns but if he makes it half way through the season to trade time I still think teams bite.  If they don't trade him in this lost season they just lose more value.

 

Personally I think he he makes the 30M per year mark.  When healthy he is a top 10 player in the league with his all around skill set he can change games with his power, speed, arm, defense.  Stinks that it took him until year 4 to reach his potential but it is what it is.  If the pen was good maybe this would have been the year to make some noise instead it looks like a time to retool.

[Mike Sixel]

I would 100% want a top SP and position player to start, but man, the starting pitching prospect list is heavily weighted to teams that don't have big budgets / aren't great right now.

 

The other option is multiple SP prospects at the 45 and above range, but there are almost no systems with that profile.

 

That said, if you can get Mackenzie Gore and two players rated 45 or higher, you consider it.

 

My preference is that they re-sign him.....but if he says he isn't doing that, I don't know how you don't trade him.

[nicksaviking]

I'd probably like to get a feel about if Buxton (and Berrios) actually have or have had any real interest in an extension prior to deciding this.

 

If they've been planning the Mookie Betts route the whole time, then yeah, you have to move them if you're not a legit contender this year. 

 

If they were or are still interested in extensions, then we as fans are kind of in the dark without knowing the price points demanded.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd probably like to get a feel about if Buxton (and Berrios) actually have or have had any real interest in an extension prior to deciding this.

 

If they've been planning the Mookie Betts route the whole time, then yeah, you have to move them if you're not a legit contender this year. 

 

If they were or are still interested in extensions, then we as fans are kind of in the dark without knowing the price points demanded.

 

If they don't want to sign here....what would it take?

[ashbury]

Would prefer to trade him out of the AL. Wonder if San Diego would match up well? They have a pretty good young center fielder,Trent Grisham, who might profile better in left field, letting them move Profar out of that spot. And they have plenty of minor league talent to dangle in trade.

 

Ugh, they have Machado's contract already. Probably they can't take on another like it.

 

Giants maybe? Posey's contract comes off the books just when a Buxton extension would kick in. They may not have the prospect capital though.

 

Three team trade?

[MNT1996]

I've been very skeptical of a long-term Buxton extension in the past, but I think the Twins need to take that risk and give him the deal. Letting Buxton go just seems like the FO giving up on their current window and would be demoralizing for the fans. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

A World Series run would be worth keeping both Buxton and Berrios, even if they walk in free agency. I agree, no guarantee that that happens, even if they keep them. I think it’s a gamble they have to take. However, they need to fix the pitching, quick.

 

If they trade Buxton, that feels like giving up, and they might as well trade Donaldson and a couple of these other guys too, and I think it becomes a cascade into mediocrity at that point. Good teams don’t sell off their talent every three years.

 

Just my opinions.

[Vanimal46]

I'd probably like to get a feel about if Buxton (and Berrios) actually have or have had any real interest in an extension prior to deciding this.

 

If they've been planning the Mookie Betts route the whole time, then yeah, you have to move them if you're not a legit contender this year.

 

If they were or are still interested in extensions, then we as fans are kind of in the dark without knowing the price points demanded.

As far as what we know as fans, Doogie Wolfson has said on Twitter the Twins have been trying to lock up Buxton for years but haven’t come to agreement on terms.

[nicksaviking]

 

If they don't want to sign here....what would it take?

 

I'm not sure I understand the question, but in the case of Betts, it was clear he couldn't be bought out of his free agent years at any price. I'd just like to know, are these guys open to extensions, or is it a hard stop.

 

Because this team has been extremely averse to taking on long term free agent contracts, with Donaldson being the only one. I mean, to me it would seem like the only reason to do that is BECAUSE they planned on locking up the internal star players who were going to cost a lot of money.

 

I mean in addition to Randy Dobnak of course.

[SwainZag]

If the Twins trade Buxton after this whole ride of seeing him mature into the player he is right now, I am not sure I can continue watching Twins baseball....and I've been a fan for 30+ years.  It's a slow start, but after the years or losing and with the core they have right now and the way ownership has let payroll rise the last few years....a tear down, especially mid-season might break the camel's back for me.

[ashbury]

As far as what we know as fans, Doogie Wolfson has said on Twitter the Twins have been trying to lock up Buxton for years but haven’t come to agreement on terms.

For years. This is approximately the same language as when a team is "in on" a few major free agents every year. With the same outcome.