Fun with Numbers: Byron Buxton is Playing Out of His Mind

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Byron Buxton is currently playing out of his mind. Let's enjoy this fact by exploring some of his gaudy numbers.Although they currently find themselves in the midst of a one (1) game winning streak, it’s safe to say that things have not gone overly well for the Minnesota Twins thus far this season. They are only 0.5 games up on the Detroit Tigers for the worst record in baseball and have run into a number of roadblocks, both self-inflicted and virtually random.

 

However, the same cannot be said about center fielder Byron Buxton, who is playing at a level that has rarely been seen before in the history of baseball.

 

Now, I can hear you saying, “Lucas, chill. He only has 68 at-bats,” and, while that criticism is fair and there is no way Buxton will be able to sustain his current level of productivity all season, my response to you, dear reader, is, “I CAN CHILL WHEN I’M DEAD.”

 

Let us take the briefest of moments to simply revel in the pure awesomeness that has been Byron Buxton this season. Lord knows we could use our fair share of positivity at the moment.

 

A picture worth 1.000 OPS

 

For starters, peep this.

 

 

*weeps* It’s beautiful.

 

WAR, WAR never changes (except for this season for Byron Buxton)

 

Entering the 2021 MLB season, Buxton’s career high for WAR — wins above replacement, for the uninitiated — according to FanGraphs was 3.6. He posted that number during 2017 — his lone healthy season — when he played in 140 games, hit a career-high 16 home runs and won the Platinum Glove.

 

For a bit of reference, an MVP-caliber season is generally considered to be one in which a player accumulates upwards of eight or nine WAR. As of this writing, Buxton has accumulated 2.3 WAR across 17 games, the third-highest of his career if the season ended today.

 

Let’s assume that Buxton appears in 140 games this season — perhaps a big assumption, but one we’re taking in this exercise nonetheless because we’re being positive — he is currently on pace to accumulate 18.9 WAR.

 

Again, his current pace is unsustainable, however, Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers posted a WAR of 10.4 in 2018 when he was a member of the Boston Red Sox, which was the highest since Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels posted one of 10.2 in 2013. Even if his bat slows down significantly as the season progresses, a WAR of 10.0 shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for Buxton as long as he stays healthy.

 

*HOMER SIMPSON VOICE* NEEERD (numbers)

 

Buxton currently owns career-best marks* in (amongst others):

• Isolated power (slugging% - batting average): .500
• K%: 20.6%
• BABIP: .476
• OPS: 1.409
• HardHit%: 66.0%
• Max Exit Velo: 114.1 mph
• Barrel%: 24.0%
• BA versus fastballs: .586 (*Note: Buxton has hit six homers off fastballs, while only striking out against them on five occasions)
• Swings on balls out of the zone: 35.5% (down 13.4% from last season)

Again, Buxton’s current rate of offensive production is unsustainable, however, a few of these numbers serve to highlight a change in his approach at the plate.

 

For instance, his propensity to chase balls out of the zone has dropped dramatically this season, which implies a less defensive approach at the plate. This also likely correlates with his decreased strikeout rate, which, in turn, is likely correlated with his improved ability to hit fastballs.

 

 

***

 

The Twins have not been good, but Byron Buxton has and his numbers are simply asinine at the moment. They will come down to Earth at some point — they always do, no matter how good the player — but if he can remain healthy, Buxton may have a real chance at being the team’s first league MVP since Joe Mauer in 2009.

 

*These numbers were gathered from FanGraphs as well as Baseball Savant.

 

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[Doctor Gast]

With his mind set, his new found physical strength and stability (since last year) I don't see him slowing down much. Go Buck!

[denarded]

He'll hit a couple of rocky points where he doesn't see the ball well. Dr. Gast is right on and an encouraging sign for sustained success is his Hard Hit% and Chase rate Also he's pretty fast I hear...

[bighat]

In my fantasy baseball league, Buxton has the 5th most points of any outfielder in MLB, despite having at least 20 fewer at bats than the guys in front of him.

[Trov]

I know it is unlikely he will hit at the pace he is, but I would argue it is not a fluke he is doing it.  He is hitting everything hard, and the ones he is not hitting hard he is hitting in the right places most of the time.  

 

He has never hit like this for this long, but he also has never managed to stay of the breaking pitches out of the zone as well either.  For me the 2 most important numbers to look at in that list is his whiff rate and chase rate.  Both are very low, meaning he is staying of pitches out of the zone mostly, and is hitting the pitches in the zone.  If that can be sustained his high numbers can be sustained I believe.  

 

Now, the league will start to adjust to how he has adjusted and try to find ways to get him out.  However, so far this year the go to way to get him out, slider away, has not been working because he actually is taking that pitch.  Something in his head has clicked at the plate and he is seeing pitches better.  I also feel like his bat is faster this year, maybe the extra muscle has helped in that manner a lot. 

[twinfan]

I will never figure out this WAR stat or even how they figure it but it's great to see Bux doing well. Now if he only can stay healthy. His defense has been great as well but we know that. In order for him to win MVP, the Twins will have to win or come close to winning the Division. That could still happen and would become more realistic if they can win 15 of the next 20-22 games.

[Ruven]

It’s a beautiful thing - when he hits it hard it’s mostly uncatchable, sometimes out of the park, and when he hits it not so hard he beats out the throw to first.

 

More, please.

[twinbythebay]

 

I know it is unlikely he will hit at the pace he is, but I would argue it is not a fluke he is doing it.  He is hitting everything hard, and the ones he is not hitting hard he is hitting in the right places most of the time.  

 

He has never hit like this for this long, but he also has never managed to stay of the breaking pitches out of the zone as well either.  For me the 2 most important numbers to look at in that list is his whiff rate and chase rate.  Both are very low, meaning he is staying of pitches out of the zone mostly, and is hitting the pitches in the zone.  If that can be sustained his high numbers can be sustained I believe.  

 

Now, the league will start to adjust to how he has adjusted and try to find ways to get him out.  However, so far this year the go to way to get him out, slider away, has not been working because he actually is taking that pitch.  Something in his head has clicked at the plate and he is seeing pitches better.  I also feel like his bat is faster this year, maybe the extra muscle has helped in that manner a lot. 

To clarify, those low numbers you see on the chase rate and whiff rate scales from Baseball Savant mean that he is worse than league average on both of those metrics. In other words, he is still chasing and whiffing more than most MLB hitters. Now, his stats in pretty much every other hitting category are obviously elite, so while he still might chase a little too much, he is making the most of the pitches he sees in or near the zone.

 

I imagine pitchers will notice this eventually and start trying to get him to chase more, which is when Buxton will need to be able to adjust or risk seeing his success drop off quickly. The next step in his evolution at the plate will need to be improved plate discipline which should lead to a higher walk rate. If he can make that adjustment without sacrificing too much of his power and aggressiveness, his success should be more sustainable long-term.