Can These Twins Avoid Another Total System Failure?

[Nick Nelson]

They say history repeats itself. For the 2021 Twins, that could be a good or bad thing. Two precedents from the franchise's past 15 years illustrate diverging paths forward.Five years ago today, on April 27th, 2016, the Minnesota Twins had the exact same record as they do currently: 7-14. About one week later, owner Jim Pohlad uttered three words to the media that would become irrevocably associated with an historical trainwreck of a season: "Total System Failure."

 

By that point, things had further devolved. From 7-14, the Twins lost 12 of their next 13 games and by mid-May they were 8-26. This disastrous spiral culminated in a 103-loss season and led to a (perhaps long overdue) complete overhaul of the front office and baseball ops department.

 

In came Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, who did a remarkable job of turning around this wayward Twins franchise. But here in 2021, a year of sky-high expectations, they find their club heading down a familiarly distressing path.

 

Looking back at that 2016 team, you do see some noticeable similarities. A lineup that mostly failed to produce and rarely scored more than three runs. A blowup-prone bullpen with a maddeningly ineffective closer (Kevin Jepsen, meet Alex Colomé). Mounting injuries and misfortunes. A constant inability to execute in big spots or win games in convincing fashion.

 

Then again, this 2021 roster also feels a whole lot different than that mish-mashed, transitional group. The 2016 Twins had a miscast Miguel Sanó playing in right field, ByungHo Park at DH, and Eduardo Escobar badly stretched as a shortstop for much of the year, before Jorge Polanco stepped in and looked even worse. The rotation featured Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, and brutal rookie performances from Jose Berrios and Tyler Duffey.

 

That was not a team that stacked up on paper against this year's Twins, with Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, and a fully-formed Byron Buxton leading the charge. It wasn't a slightly modified version of a team that had played .600 ball and won two division titles in the past two seasons.

 

Most notably, it was very clear from the start that the 2016 team was terrible. They started out 0-9 and really never gave the impression they were better than the results indicated.

 

This 2021 team got off to a much different start. They were 5-2, with the best run differential in the league, and leading Seattle 6-0 on April 11th before the bottom completely fell out. A meltdown in that series finale against the Mariners gave way to a 2-12 slump that these Twins are now desperately trying to find their way out of.

 

Unlike the 2016 Twins, we know this team is better than its record indicates. We've seen what they're capable of, even though that strong start now feels like ancient history. So to envision what a necessary turnaround might look like, let's turn the clock back another 10 years, to 2006.

 

The '06 Twins were in better shape as of this date (9-12) but they struggled mightily during the first two months overall. As late as June 7th, they were eight games below 500 at 25-33, trailing first place by 11.5 games in the Central. No one was thinking at that time Minnesota had much of a chance.

 

But as the summer hit its stride, so did the Twins, suddenly unlocking a series of best-case scenarios that fueled a stunning four-month run. They ended up winning 96 games and the division.

 

What needed to happen for that team to exorcise its demons and fulfill its potential? In examining the 2006 squad, and the key factors behind their turnaround, let's see if we can't extract a few promising parallels.

 

Justin Morneau's surge: On this date in 2006, Morneau was slashing .208/.260/.431 and looking lost. From that point forward he was a force to be reckoned with. Starting on May 1st, the first baseman hit .338/.390/.581 with 29 home runs and 115 RBIs in 136 games, earning MVP honors as a result. Now, most laggards on the current Twins have looked even worse than Morneau did early on, but they've got sleepers who've proven capable of producing like the second-half Morneau from 2006. I'm thinking of Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, and Max Kepler, specifically.

 

Francisco Liriano's emergence: The rookie phenom was an electrifying presence on the mound every fifth day after he joined the rotation in mid-May. I'm not saying there's any prospect in the Twins organization capable of replicating that impact, but the Twins do have some high-octane starting arms — namely Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino — who are verging on MLB-ready and could step in at any time to be legit difference-makers.

 

Front office intervention: Terry Ryan and Co. were customarily patient as things devolved in the early months of 2006, but eventually they took action and made some important moves. Not in the form of trades or external additions, mind you, but pivotal internal decisions. They phased out non-performers like Tony Batista, Juan Castro and Lew Ford. They cut bait on Kyle Lohse. They eventually gave up on their weird Willie Eyre fixation in the bullpen and called up a kid by the name of Pat Neshek.

 

So far we haven't seen this current front office take any kind of significant action as its team has sunk into despair, other than reactive moves to fill needs. But action is bound to come. And while it's hard to feel ultra-confident in their ability to right the ship, given that they built this leaky thing to begin with, they have shown they can make critical adjustments and improvements on the fly: most importantly, in the bullpen.

 

Lest we forget: Minnesota opened the 2019 season with a bullpen consisting of Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryne Harper, Martín Pérez, Adalberto Mejía. The unit endured some painful struggles in the first half, but by year's end it was a high-powered, dependable relief corps with very few of the same names.

 

I don't know what will happen from here. Admittedly, it's difficult now to imagine this team coming alive and playing at the 100+ win pace likely necessary to take the division. Then again, we could've said the same at times in early 2006. And like that team, this one has got some of the requisite pieces and capabilities to go on such a run.

 

Or, maybe they'll continue to unravel in spectacular fashion, and we're in the midst of another Total System Failure. Or perhaps the best comp is 2018, and we'll ultimately learn that this team is neither extraordinarily good or bad, but simply a mediocre also-ran. That frankly seems like the most likely outcome at this time.

 

The bottom line is we don't know. There's still a ton of season left and many things that can play out. Keep that in mind, and stay hopeful.

 

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[strumdatjaguar]

Minneapolis placed used pianos throughout the City in 2016. Prior to a Twins Game that year, I improvised the Total System Failure Blues. Some fans joined in (4-5 maximum). The rest tried to divert their attention from this musical negativity. If the Twins continue down this path in 2021, I will try to do a 2.0 version.

[Darius]

You can’t tell me watching Colome accumulate a nearly impossible -1.5 WAR and cough up 5 games in 8 appearances, with no accountability in terms of his role, doesn’t cause some sort of rot in that clubhouse. If I’m Duffey or Rogers, who’s put my time in here and been performed, I wouldn’t be very happy about it.

 

Colome is doing this in epically bad fashion. It’s not a walkoff extra base hit to Mike Trout. We’re talking about throwing batting practice level stuff to guys like Jordan Luplow, and the team is in the dugout before the ball lands.

 

It doesn’t help when Baldelli is getting cute and doing things like yanking Josh Donaldson in the 10th inning. Walking Robby Grossman to pitch to one of the hottest hitters in the game. Forgetting the rules on mound visits with your ace on the mound. The decisions he’s been making are inexcusably bad.

 

It looks like the life has been sucked out of some of these guys, and rightfully so. It’s amateur hour over there in the FO and management.

[Dodecahedron]

Santana was very good in 2006, and I have never seen a player come up and pitch like Liriano did. Liriano's half-season was the best I have ever seen a pitcher pitch and I don't expect to see something like that again in my lifetime.

 

The 2006 Twins also had an unstoppable closer and nearly-unstoppable set-up man. Mauer was in HOF form. Punto was flashing not just a gold glove, but a platinum one.

 

My honest take is the 2006 Twins would tear apart the current team in a face-to-face matchup series. Their bullpen was nasty, they had some hitters doing incredible things, and they played good defense. That team spent most of the season with 1.5 starters and blew past everybody once they got going.

 

If the current team wants to hold a candle to the 2006 Twins, they've got to start playing defense and closing out games.

[Doctor Gast]

Pat Neshek was a great long reliever. I was thinking about him prior and was hoping that Baldelli would use Dobnak the same way if they aren't using him as starter.

[JW24]

The Twins have played 4 games against the Central Division so far this year. It is fortunate they are playing their worst ball now. Lots of games within the division to climb out of the hole they are in.

 

As completely awful as it is being a fan right now, I believe it will get better. The bad stretches always feel endless, and the good stretches never last long enough (seemingly). Close the gap in the division to a couple games by the All-Star Break and things look a whole lot better.

[DocBauer]

I have NO EXPLANATION, much less ANY answers as to how and why this team's record is virtually flipped from what was expected or projected. Not just from me, or us as fans, but from the press and purported experts.

 

NOTHING has really gone right past the first week from injuries to covid to unexpectedly poor performance. And while I enjoyed the OP and the various perspectives, at some point a talented and pretty deep team HAS TO PERFORM even to "normal" standards/expectations, forgetting anyone having a great season.

 

Knee jerk reactions certainly aren't the answer, or warranted. And I'm as disappointed as anyone! The FO and Rocco didn't just become incompetent overnight, despite a few real questionable calls from Rocco here and there. Johnson didn't just become a bad coach. The available talent, ability, proven past production and potential off the players on this team just didn't disappear in a snap, despite the poor results we've seen.

 

For whatever reason, all but a few players seem to have begun the season in simultaneous slumps. Is it a fluke? Is the roster just a bad recipe of ingredients that don't work together?

 

I'm not trying to be an inexcusable optomist, and at some time changes via trade or promotion will probably have to take place for a jump start and new "recipe" mix, but the best thing that could happen RIGHT NOW is for everyone to be healthy and back and for the calender to flip to May.

 

I know that sounds ridiculously simple, but how many of us at work, or in life, have just had a bad month. And when the next month started, we just took a deep mental/emotional breath and everything just started to go and work better with a feeling of a fresh start?

 

This team needs to get healthy and start the next month with a new attitude. From there, the FO needs to start being aggressive with moves/changes.

[gunnarthor]

This probably wasn't a fair review of Twins history. The 2015 Twins were pretty good, fighting for a playoff spot to the last series of the season and had some really promising young rookies. To say that the 2016 Twins were devoid of talent is a bit wrong. Those young guys just struggled - a lot. The 2017 Twins made the postseason. And then we had another ****ty season in 2018 that only looks a bit better b/c we won the last six against the White Sox. Most of called the 2018 season another total system failure year.

 

Realistically, TD is giving the current FO a bit too much love. Even after all this time, our best hitting and pitching prospect were acquired by the previous regime. This FO was given a pretty good hand - talented young nucleus at the ML level, strong prospect system, an owner willing to spend - and they haven't really done much to help. 2019 was a fun season with a rough ending but this looks like a season full of cruddy bullpen arms trying to game their way through the 6-9 innings, day in, day out.

[D.C Twins]

I think the most important parallel to make is:

 

the "weird Willie Eyre fixation" to the current "weird Colome fixation" (gotta keep rollin' him out because, you know, um, yeah!)

[jimbo92107]

Oscillations are a simple idea. Over time, something goes up and down. A little higher, then a little lower, etc. Over a long enough time, you can draw a line that equally divides the high from the low, to get an average. 

 

The Minnesota Twins are definitely swinging very low lately. If you are averaging fewer than 4 runs per game while allowing more than 6, you are going to lose a lot of games. Questions: Are Twins hitters historically better than this? Yes, much better. Are the Twins pitchers historically better than this? Starters, yes. Relievers, hard yes. Have Twins coaches been better than this? Yes, Rowson appeared to have the whole team hitting. 

 

An upward oscillation is likely, at least for the hitters. Keep practicing, keep following a good process. It finally worked for Buxton. Meanwhile, the bullpen could definitely use some substitutions, starting with Colome, Stashak and Thiebar. Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino could replace them, or whoever is the best reliever in the system. Maybe a trio of hard throwing talent can swing this line back in a positive direction. 

 

You can see it in a player's face, whether they are feeling pressure or are applying pressure. Time for the Twins to start applying pressure. 

[h2oface]

This from an article on the MLB page....

 

"But the Twins actually led the AL with a 42 percent hard-hit rate entering Tuesday, and their average exit velocity of 89.7 mph was second only to the Blue Jays. But the results haven’t followed -- just ask Kirilloff, who entered the game 1-for-18 but was hitting the ball well enough for a .293 expected batting average and an expected slugging percentage of .608, per Statcast."

 

This is where baseball has gone. All this expected crap to try to make it acceptable to lose. Whoppee. Wining the hard-hit rate stat sheet. Expected means nothing in the win and loss columns. Actual means everything.

[big dog]

New Twins strategy: pitch a shutout, have a chance.

 

I've never been this disappointed in a Twins team, ever. Very short time left to man up and right the ship.

[HokieRif]

[umterp23]

Didn't I read somewhere that Rocco was going to move Colombe to less intense pitching situations and yet he is in a close game to suck again yesterday.  Maybe I'm wrong on the info, but my goodness what a failure to this point of the season for a high priced off season pickup.  Rocco now makes the comment that they "can't control our results"... What the hell, another cute excuse.  You can control it, quit throwing Colombe out there, that is controlling a pending bad result!

[wabene]

This from an article on the MLB page....

 

"But the Twins actually led the AL with a 42 percent hard-hit rate entering Tuesday, and their average exit velocity of 89.7 mph was second only to the Blue Jays. But the results haven’t followed -- just ask Kirilloff, who entered the game 1-for-18 but was hitting the ball well enough for a .293 expected batting average and an expected slugging percentage of .608, per Statcast."

 

This is where baseball has gone. All this expected crap to try to make it acceptable to lose. Whoppee. Wining the hard-hit rate stat sheet. Expected means nothing in the win and loss columns. Actual means everything.

 

I don't think anybody said those stats count for anything. We are in an age where there are so many outlets for information and in baseball people are dissecting minutia to try to explain things or gain an edge.

The Twins have laid an egg. The only solace I would get from those stats are that the talent hasn't just disappeared and things could swing in the other direction.

[ashbury]

I don't think anybody said those stats count for anything. We are in an age where there are so many outlets for information and in baseball people are dissecting minutia to try to explain things or gain an edge. The Twins have laid an egg. The only solace I would get from those stats are that the talent hasn't just disappeared and things could swing in the other direction.

Came here to say something about like that. Some stats like RBI and ERA try to tell you what happened. Some stats like BABIP or exit velocity try to help you forecast what may come next. But in no case is anyone trying to spin losses into wins. It's just insulting when someone implies that.

 

[insagt1]

 

This from an article on the MLB page....

 

"But the Twins actually led the AL with a 42 percent hard-hit rate entering Tuesday, and their average exit velocity of 89.7 mph was second only to the Blue Jays. But the results haven’t followed -- just ask Kirilloff, who entered the game 1-for-18 but was hitting the ball well enough for a .293 expected batting average and an expected slugging percentage of .608, per Statcast."

 

This is where baseball has gone. All this expected crap to try to make it acceptable to lose. Whoppee. Wining the hard-hit rate stat sheet. Expected means nothing in the win and loss columns. Actual means everything.

couldn't agree more with the above. Some of the useless drivel that is being wheeled out is just plain unnecessary.this isn't Strat-o-matic. Its what happens when major league hitters face major league pitchers and fielders. Some of the easiest DP's in the game are hard hit, on the button ground balls. You can hit a ball 400 feet, real hard, and if its to center field, its usually an out.

 

Object of game...score more runs than the other guy and win. And it can happen in a various number of ways. I don't care about 'hard hit' and exit velocity and launch angle and e-i--e-i-o m-o-u-s-e.

But thats just one mans opinion. Others count too, I get it.

[insagt1]

Colome's confidence at the moment is shot. Yesterday was a classic example. He goes in trying to keep it a one run game and walks 3 men and hits another, forcing in a run and leaving a mess for another reliever to clean up (unsuccessfully) When you cant go in and throw strikes...when your outings so far this year have been brutal...much of the trouble is mental. Its possible that he has just completely 'lost it', but that is unlikely.

whatever the case, he is a major headache for the Twins right now.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Any time someone suggests something like “but the Twins are 7-5 in 9 inning games”, I do put my antennae up for spin.

 

I mean, it’s a fact, and I’ve probably said it myself, but ...

 

... but watch a game and make up your own mind, I guess.

 

I hope the Twins turn it around. However, we already know they don’t have the pitcihing. Therefore, the offense will need to pick up the slack (like in 2019). When Washington started 19-31 in 2019, they had Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin ready in the rotation. When Cleveland made up 11 games on the Twins, they had a .500 record but a good team as well (Lindor, etc). The Twins are neither the 2019 Washington or 2019 Cleveland team.

[4twinsJA]

Twins are in a terrible streak. They hit a flare down the foul line, foul by 6 inches, opponent's flare fair by 6 inches. Twins pitcher doesn't get the call on a pitch just off the plate, opponent gets the call. My concern with the FO the past couple of years has been they seem to be trying to get one more good year out of an aging pitcher-Bailey, Hill, Shoe, Happ, Romo, etc. Has worked out some of the time, lets start seeing Waddell, Anderson, Duran. Chalmers, and others. 

[gunnarthor]

I am down on this team but there certainly are scenarios where this is still a playoff team. I trust the offense a lot more than I trust the bullpen and even the rotation. Kiriloff has had some at-bats where I think, "he's gonna be good" even though he lines out. And I'm still a big believer in Sano. But the pitching staff really worries me. 

 

I will add that I am actually thrilled to be watching baseball again after the insanely strange 2020 season and Buxton is absolutely amazing to watch. 

[Trov]

This year is much different from 2016.  That team was not built to win in any way shape or form.  This team is playing terrible, and that my be a combination of issues.  They can turn it around, but will need to really start playing better.  

 

The pen is a huge issue, and their lack of producing runs lately too.  They are failing to do much of the little things they need to do.  I do not know if they have much of anything in minors to bring in for pen spots, but unless we can start getting guys out late in games we will not win much.  

 

Colome has been nothing short of a train wreck and might be time to cut bait on him, or at very least not be end of game guy.  I sure hope they figure it out soon though. 

[In My La Z boy]

 

I am down on this team but there certainly are scenarios where this is still a playoff team. I trust the offense a lot more than I trust the bullpen and even the rotation. Kiriloff has had some at-bats where I think, "he's gonna be good" even though he lines out. And I'm still a big believer in Sano. But the pitching staff really worries me. 

 

I will add that I am actually thrilled to be watching baseball again after the insanely strange 2020 season and Buxton is absolutely amazing to watch. 

Concur with this 100%. Biggest fail is the bullpen. We are 14-8 if we could hold a lead. Bad bullpen and bad bullpen management. We are not having this conversation if we have a competent bullpen and a competent bullpen manager. All offensive struggles are obvious, but we still win 14 games if we hold leads.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the most important parallel to make is:

 

the "weird Willie Eyre fixation" to the current "weird Colome fixation" (gotta keep rollin' him out because, you know, um, yeah!)

Also: "The Willie Eyre Fixation" could be a good band name!

[lukeduke1980]

It's beginning to feel like TSF when all aspects of the team at some point contribute to losses, the manager makes questionable decisions, the Covid issue, talent pipeline is tapped and doesn't perform, though it is early on Kiriloff. I guess that's the hope is this can be 2006 and Sano is Tony Batista and Polanco is Juan Castro. Can we trade Kepler for a Shannon Stewart, which was a different year but similar feel.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's beginning to feel like TSF when all aspects of the team at some point contribute to losses, the manager makes questionable decisions, the Covid issue, talent pipeline is tapped and doesn't perform, though it is early on Kiriloff. I guess that's the hope is this can be 2006 and Sano is Tony Batista and Polanco is Juan Castro. Can we trade Kepler for a Shannon Stewart, which was a different year but similar feel.

 

If the talent pipeline is tapped, this team has very long term issues......

[ashbury]

"The Willie Eyre Fixation" could be a good band name!

Or, an entire page of DSM-5.

 

[beckmt]

Maybe we took a bite from the wrong tree.  Check out the Tampa Bay tree.  Bloom, doing well in Boston, Friedman, doing very well in LA, Fardi from Friedman in DF.  Sure there will be failures from this tree, but look at the sucess.

[cHawk]

Before the season, I thought the pen would rank around 15-20 in the league, and I don’t think that was a terrible take. (Please tell me if it was) But it has looked 25-30 thus far. I think the reason it’s been this bad is that none of our relievers really have any sort of confidence, because that will often lead to control issues. We’re seeing countless walks being handed out by guys like Colome and Duffey. Rogers and Alcala keep giving up hits and making some pretty terrible pitches. If there was more confidence in those guys I think the pen would rank somewhere around 15 in the league. If it can at the very least stay out of the bottom 10 and the offense looks like it did in 2019 and the rotation continues to produce we should be fine.

 

But of course if we want to win in the playoffs our pen needs to be better than 15. Probably Top 10. This is why we need at least one, probably two more quality arms come July.

 

Falvine does deserve blame for not getting enough arms but I think the main issue here is the coaching and the relievers themselves.