Therapy Through Writing: Navigating Through the Twins First Two Weeks

[Matthew Lenz]

It’s been a frustrating start to the season for the Twins and their fans who are expecting their team to contend for a World Series. Consider this article and comment section a judge-free zone where you can respectfully share some of your reactions, no matter how unpopular they might be.Before we dive into some reactions, I think we need to realize and understand that all fanbases really react and behave in the same manner. If you don’t believe me, Twins Daily’s own Tom Froemming did the homework for me earlier this week.

The phrase “winning cures everything” not only can apply to team chemistry and culture, but also to the mood and energy of the fanbase. When you’re winning while not following the traditional and figurative “book”, less people question your methods because “it’s working” but ALLLLLLLL of that changes if you’re not winning.

 

When you search #MNTwins twitter right now, the hot topic issues are mostly surrounding Rocco Baldelli, Willians Astudillo, Randy Dobnak, the Twins bullpen, and to a lesser extent José Berríos. Those are the topics I will breach and encourage you to add your own opinions and reactions to the first two weeks. It’s therapy through writing, people!!

 

Rocco Baldelli is the best Manager for the Twins and this Front Office

There is nobody more under fire than Rocco Baldelli right now, especially when it comes to the usage of his pitchers. Although some of it is justified, I believe that Rocco Baldelli is the one of the best Managers in baseball and is the best Manager for the Twins, as he has bought into two ideas:

• Analytics
• “Trusting the process”

Like it or not, and I know many of you don’t like it, analytics and sabermetrics consume the modern baseball world and influence every decision that is made. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine believe in underlying analytics and have invested in them by hiring Baldelli and expanding the Twins Research and Development Department. If analytics isn’t your thing, then I guess that’s fine, but the Twins front office has put together a team that aligns with their vision and that is important for “the process”.

 

We hear the phrase all of the time ... ”trust the process”, and even as frustrating as it is at times, Baldelli trusts and has bought into “the process”. A good friend of mine (@West_Coast_Jack on twitter for all your elite Gopher analytic needs) said it well, “Rocco literally does not care at all about winning any specific game because [he] only manages for [the] long term”. He’s going to be extra cautious with players who have a checkered injury past by sitting them even if they just returned from the DL and only played in one game. He’s going to limit his pitchers early in the year to 80-90 pitches even if they're cruising, because less usage early on theoretically keeps their arms healthy and strong come playoff time. It might cost us wins in April and May, which I would argue are just as important as wins in August and September, but looking at the bigger picture it’s more important that the players are healthy at the end of the season. Rocco is trusting that process and so should we.

 

Speaking of Big Picture, Willians Astudillo Isn’t a Part of It

Astudillo is a “clubhouse guy.” Astudillo brings energy. Astudillo brings entertainment. **Whispers** Astudillo doesn’t bring much more than that.

 

And when you’re on an 18-game playoff losing streak that should matter more than his previously mentioned attributes. You can miss me with the “he doesn’t strike out” or “he’s batting .304 this year and .295 for his career” statistics. I feel like I’m cheating off Tom’s homework here but he can’t put it any better than I would have so I’d like to give him credit:

“La Tortuga has actually been productive so far, but this is not sustainable” is the story of his big league career to this point. His positional versatility is a plus, although he’s not really “great” at any position, so his role should really be the last guy off the bench making a spot start once, maybe twice a week. He isn’t an everyday player or a long term solution at any position, and he absolutely shouldn’t be relied on in a high leverage role as a hitter.

 

Randy Dobnak is a Low Leverage Reliever or Spot Starter

It seems like we pick and choose when spring statistics matter, and I’m as guilty as everyone else! For example, although there was some concern with Kepler’s spring, the overwhelming thought was “eh, it’s spring training” he’ll be fine. On the other hand, Dobnak dominated the spring and his new slider was the talk of the town with many saying he’s turning into a frontline starter. It’s too early to definitively say that Dobnak can’t be a reliever, although his performances in three appearances this season are dramatically different from the five spring appearances. I’ve never trusted Dobnak’s success in the bigs and wrote about that two weeks before he was sent to the alternate site last year, and although it was encouraging, I was definitely a “let’s wait and see what happens” regarding his performance when games didn’t count. Dobnak’s story is undoubtedly a great one, although I imagine most minor leaguers work part-time jobs given their pathetic “salaries”, but I go back to the 18-game playoff losing streak. Inspiring story is great but I want the best players in the best positions. Dobnak can contribute at the Major League level, but until he proves otherwise he needs to stay in low leverage situations and I can’t trust him as a season long starter.

 

The Twins Bullpen Will Be FINE! R.E.L.A.X

The Twins don’t have the top end arm in their bullpen like maybe the White Sox, Yankees, or Dodgers, but I think the depth of the bullpen is its strength despite the shaky start. Not many teams have the option to roll out four different pitchers (Alex Colomé, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Hansel Robles) who have all had success in high-leverage roles throughout their careers. That doesn’t include Caleb Thielbar and Cody Stashak who have been effective out of the bullpen this year too. I believe the Law of Averages will balance out and the bullpen will end the season as one of the best in Majors.

 

José Berríos is Our Third Best Starter

This isn’t necessarily a reaction to the first two weeks of the season, as I’ve thought this for two years when Pineda had recovered from Tommy John and is a statistically accurate statement since June 1, 2019. That said, Berríos start to the season is a perfect snapshot into why I think this.

 

From one start to another, Berríos undoubtedly has the higher ceiling as he can have an outing like he did in the second game of the season, but he’s equally if not more likely to have outings like the two he’s had since. He’s far too inefficient and inconsistent for me to slot him ahead of Pineda as the Twins second best starter. In fact, Twins Daily’s own Matthew Taylor shared this stat after his most recent start against the Red Sox:

I'm not saying the gap is large, but I’ll take the consistency and higher floor of Pineda as my number two over the higher ceiling but inconsistency of Berríos when I need a win.

 

What are your reactions through the first two weeks of the season? Are you worried or still feeling it out this early in the year? Add your thoughts in the comment section!

 

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[bobs]

Miguel Angel Sano.  Whoof.

[peterb18]

Guys like most of these writers are more interested in analytics than baseball. They know more about statistics than the game itself. As a life long fan the game is becoming too boring. Too many strikeouts and home runs. Not enough action. Really disagree with the part about the bullpen. 

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

This is absolutely not one of the top bullpens in baseball. That is simply rose colored glasses talking.

 

It's decidedly below average, particularly compared to good teams.

[TheLeviathan]

There are no fun ways to lose, but there may be no more frustrating way in all of sports than a baseball team and a bad bullpen.

[Aichiman]

The problem with the Twins starts and ends at the top, with the owners.  Imho, they don’t know what they’re doing.  Their thinking seems so simplistic, so black and white: new is good; old is bad.  They follow the latest trends and dump everything from the past, even ideas and techniques that have proven, over time, to work.  Take our manager, for example.  Endorsed (blessed) by Korn Ferry, he embodies all the attributes of the new modern manager as dreamed up by the new modern progressive thinkers.  But this ideal, completely ignores the real human element and group dynamics of an all-male professional baseball team.
 

Academically and politically, Rocco checks all the boxes. He loves the new technology, and like a Wall Street quant with his advanced algorithms, he puts unquestioning faith into the numbers it produces.  He boasts about how much he cares and empathizes with his players.  Catering to all their needs, he treads ever so carefully to protect them from injury and make them “feel comfortable.”   And he takes great pride in his even temperament.  I don’t know if he’s ever been thrown out of a game.  Maybe once; but I’ve never seen him blow up. 
 

Unlike the old-school managers, like Earl Weaver, Sparky Anderson, and the current skipper of the Cleveland Indians, Terry Francona, who rarely minced words—or tantrums—our guy never gives a straight answer to anything.  So as not to offend, he chooses his words with excruciating carefulness, and he hedges and dodges like a politician.  And don’t even get me started on his predilection for raising the pitch of his voice at the end of sentences, making every statement sound like a question, as if he’s unsure about what he had just said.  To me, Rocco is the poster boy of the modern detoxified American male. He’s better suited to run the human resources department at a NPO than to manage a group of professional male athletes.  Perhaps he's good for an occasional moral victory, but a real championship? Fuhgeddaboudit.
 

Now, I don’t mean to be pounding solely on poor Rocco because in all honesty, it’s not his fault; it’s the owner’s fault for hiring him.  And it’s the owner’s fault for hiring Korn Ferry to conduct the managerial search in the first place.  And it’s the owner’s fault for giving the go ahead to erase their own history by throwing Calvin under the bus to support (or appease) the BLM.  It follows the same pattern: “out with the old, and in with the new” with little indication of thoughtful deliberation or any kind of nod to nuance, ambiguity, or uncertainty. 

Outside the occasional Central Division Championship, I don’t think this team has a chance to win anything of consequence as long the current owners remain the current owners.