BOS 4, MIN 2: More Missed Opportunities, Another Blown Lead

[twinbythebay]

 

Literally every move imaginable in baseball history has worked before, but I’d rather go with some form of Rogers, Duffy, alcala or Robles over a third inning of dobnak. Tomorrow’s DH has two 7 inning games. And both starters routinely pitch into the 6th

On the other hand, he made it through two perfect innings throwing less than 20 pitches total. I thought a third inning of Dobnak there was completely reasonable, especially after Sunday's game when Rocco removed a dominant looking Robles in favor of Colome in the ninth.

[stringer bell]

We’re talking about ten games here. Small sample size-yadda, yadda, yadda. Akil Baddoo won’t hit 64 homers, Polanco, Sanó, and Garver will improve. The question is whether these guys (and Kepler) will approach their top seasons or whether they are league average or below.

 

Maybe a role reversal between Arraez and Polanco is in order. As far as Jake Cave, he has been the beneficiary of increased play due to Donaldson’s injury and the spring training demotion of Alex Kirilloff. I really expect AK will be with the Twins before the cold snap (in the weather) is over.

 

As for the bullpen, yeah it’s still early, but Colomé hasn’t been sharp and he is really key to the ‘pen. Duffey and Stashak seem to have lost velocity, which is also concerning. I think Rogers, Robles and Thielbar have been very good. I think the lack of innings from the starters might expose the bullpen too much.

 

So far, the team is losing a lot of “50-50 battles”, that likely won’t continue. However Cruz, Buxton and Arraez won’t stay as hot—Sanó, the catchers and Polanco won’t stay as cold, but the offense looks more like 2020 than 2019.

[USAFChief]

Did not see the game. Just read Cruz was home "resting". Does he have a problem?

"non covid related illness."

[AZTwin]

Not in Minneapolis. What was the difference between today and yesterday that they were able to have a game today?

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Time for some positive thinking.  The left side of the infield had an outstanding defensive day.

[rv78]

I really don't understand how Blocko sets a lineup. Why do you put Garver, Polanco and Sano at the heart of your lineup when they aren't hitting and you put 3 of your hottest hitters of Arraez, Astudillo and Simmons in the 6, 7 and 8 spots? Makes no sense to me. I think they have played 10 games and there's been 9 different lineups used. Kinda looks like he doesn't know who should bat where. Poor Managing!

[mikelink45]

Not a lot to offer, but still wondering how Cave can hit so poorly and be up and Kiriloff had to be sent down because of his ST hitting.  When do we get past the get an extra year point so we can put out best team out there?  Cave out, Rooker injured, Kepler average - can Kiriloff and Larnach give a boost?

[cHawk]

Well, yeah.

 

At the end if the day, they put a W in one column or an L in the other. It's literally all that matters.

 

I understand there are ways to attempt to measure "effectiveness," but what does actually get you? When they start awarding playoff spots based on xFIP I'll worry more about it.

Wins and Losses as a team get you into the playoffs. Wins and Losses for pitchers don’t.

 

For example: Gerrit Cole on the Yankees or Gerrit Cole on the Indians.

Where does he win more games? Obviously the Yankees, because the Yankees have a thing called an offense. Does that make him a more skilled pitcher? No.

 

Wins or Losses don’t make a pitcher effective, or measure the effectiveness of a pitcher. Stats like ERA do. It helps you identify if it’s the actual problem or not.

[Dr. Evil]

Part of me wonders if an old school consistent batting order might out perform a sabermetricks lineup that changes every day. Anyone else wonder that?

 

Example: albeit a special example, I don't recall guys like Gwynn vacating the leadoff spot against unfavorable matchup situations.

[Dr. Evil]

Buxton

Arriaz

Cruz

Donaldson(if healthy)

[Dr. Evil]

Kepler

Garver

Kiriloff

Larnach

Simmons

 

[h2oface]

Now here is some creative managing.......... Mets and Phillies game 1 today.

"In most cases, the runner on second is supposed to be the player who made the last out in the previous inning. But in this instance, Rojas had purposely subbed reliever Trevor May into that spot for Dominic Smith in a double switch, knowing the rule stipulates that if a pitcher occupies that slot, a team can use the player before that in the lineup instead.

Thus, Francisco Lindor -- not May, Smith or a pinch-runner -- began the bottom of the eighth on second base. The move paid immediate dividends when Pete Alonso cracked a game-tying single into left, allowing Lindor to score with ease."

 

But make no mistake. This is not baseball. This rule sucks the spirit of the game right out of it, and it just plain sucks.

[wsnydes]

 

Not in Minneapolis. What was the difference between today and yesterday that they were able to have a game today?

There was a 7:00pm curfew on Monday due to protests. Tuesday's curfew was later. 

 

The Wild and Wolves also had home games postponed on Monday night.

[bighat]

 

Do you have a better stat where they rank below 15th?

 

EDIT: And please don't say blown saves. That's the SP W/L equivilant for relievers

I love how you don't want to count blown saves. That literally means they came into the game and gave up the lead - which is the only thing you don't want your relievers to do!

 

How's this for you: Tell me the main reason living on Mars would suck - but you can't mention the lack of oxygen, atmosphere, freezing cold temperatures, or the desert-like conditions.

 

Jeez louise man, you're way too caught up in expanded stats. We can't give Robbie Grossman the MVP Award just because his expanded statistics suggest he's more valuable than Nolan Arenado. It doesn't work that way.

[cHawk]

 

I love how you don't want to count blown saves. That literally means they came into the game and gave up the lead - which is the only thing you don't want your relievers to do!

 

How's this for you: Tell me the main reason living on Mars would suck - but you can't mention the lack of oxygen, atmosphere, freezing cold temperatures, or the desert-like conditions.

 

Jeez louise man, you're way too caught up in expanded stats. We can't give Robbie Grossman the MVP Award just because his expanded statistics suggest he's more valuable than Nolan Arenado. It doesn't work that way.

 

Do tell how Grossman has better expanded stats than Arenado.

 

There’s such a thing as a sound stat (wRC+, xFIP) and an unsound one (BA, Pitcher W/L). A sound stat is one that allows you to accurately judge a player, by baking in the meaningful data. An unsound stat is one that is vague, and does NOT give an accurate judgement of a player, by leaving many factors unaccounted for.

 

They have 2 Blown Saves on the season. Both by the same guy. He is not a closer. That’s on the manager for continuing to keep him in that role.

 

That literally means they came into the game and gave up the lead - which is the only thing you don't want your relievers to do!

 

BA literally means “how many hits you get as a ratio to how many at bats you have.” Which is what you want your hitters to do. And it should be thrown out the window. Because, according to BA, a weak dribbler that you barely beat out is the same as a 500 ft HR. It also neglects walks. That’s why Eddie looked better than he actually was.

[peterb18]

 

I think it’s a fair question to ask why we used a long reliever into the 8th inning of a tie game coming off an off day. Maybe nothing would have been different but why did we need to try and get 3 innings out of him?

The manager has to use feel and common sense at times. He just sticks to his pre-game plan no matter what. No creativity at all....

[Vanimal46]

Sure feels like this lineup could use a spark. Too bad they don't have a top hitting prospect just waiting in the wings across town. That'd be too good to be true.

How many days left until Kirilloff gets that coveted 7th season to start his service time clock?

 

Edit: Should have read further and saw spycake answered this question.

 

Friday the 16th. Let’s go!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I love how you don't want to count blown saves. That literally means they came into the game and gave up the lead - which is the only thing you don't want your relievers to do!

Blown saves are highly context-dependent. Save opportunities, as well as the margin of lead in those opportunities, are dependent on your team's offense, starting pitching, etc.

 

No one would say Oakland's or PIttsburgh's pen has out-performed the Twins pen this year, even though those teams have zero blown saves compared to the Twins 2. No one would say the Twins pen performance so far is equal to that of Detroit, even though the two teams have an equal number of blown saves.

 

Save percentage isn't much better either. If you want to derive any meaning from these particular stats, the best way is to add saves plus holds (because blown holds also count as blown saves), divided by save opportunities. And also account for raw total opportunities (converting 19 out of 20 is more difficult, and likely a better measure of pen success, than converting 2 out of 2).

 

The Twins are tied for 12th in save + hold percentage, but we're also 4th in total opportunities. That seems to track well with being tied for 6th in bullpen fWAR, and 3rd in bullpen WPA/LI. That's not to say there isn't room for improvement -- 16th in RE24, which is like WPA/LI but based on run expectancy rather that win expectancy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How many days left until Kirilloff gets that coveted 7th season to start his service time clock?

Edit: Should have read further and saw spycake answered this question.

Friday the 16th. Let’s go!

Actually I made a mistake! If a player finishes the season with 20 or fewer days on "optional assignment" to the minors, then those days count toward MLB service time (and the team doesn't lose an option year).

 

This applies to guys already on the 40-man like Kirilloff (and not to guys who haven't been added to the 40-man yet, like Kris Bryant in 2015).

 

With opening day (April 1st) counting as the first day of optional assignment, Kirilloff could potentially get credit for a full season of service time if we call him up before April 22nd.

[LanceJS]

 

Dobnak has lost his groove and confidence. Sad to see

 

Or, and I would hate to think this, is he complacent now that he has signed a long-term contract? 

[LanceJS]

 

Much of that 91 team had a ring already. This bunch (and that’s management as well as players) need to win a single playoff game before we compare them to a world champ

 

But how many in '87 already had a ring?   Not a meaningful comparison...

[LanceJS]

One more thought - why is a 3 game losing streak in May, June, July or even August no big deal but in April, it's the end of the world as we know it?  

[USAFChief]

Do tell how Grossman has better expanded stats than Arenado.

 

There’s such a thing as a sound stat (wRC+, xFIP) and an unsound one (BA, Pitcher W/L). A sound stat is one that allows you to accurately judge a player, by baking in the meaningful data. An unsound stat is one that is vague, and does NOT give an accurate judgement of a player, by leaving many factors unaccounted for.

 

They have 2 Blown Saves on the season. Both by the same guy. He is not a closer. That’s on the manager for continuing to keep him in that role.

 

That literally means they came into the game and gave up the lead - which is the only thing you don't want your relievers to do!

 

BA literally means “how many hits you get as a ratio to how many at bats you have.” Which is what you want your hitters to do. And it should be thrown out the window. Because, according to BA, a weak dribbler that you barely beat out is the same as a 500 ft HR. It also neglects walks. That’s why Eddie looked better than he actually was.

xFIP allows you accurately judge a player?

 

 

Someone's opinion of how someone should have been "expected" to perform allows you to accurately judge said someone?

 

Non-concur.

 

BTW, there is nothing inaccurate about batting average.

 

It certainly leaves out much valuable information if taken in isolation, but it's 100 percent accurate.

[cHawk]

 

xFIP allows you accurately judge a player?


Someone's opinion of how someone should have been "expected" to perform allows you to accurately judge said someone?

Non-concur.

BTW, there is nothing inaccurate about batting average.

It certainly leaves out much valuable information if taken in isolation, but it's 100 percent accurate.

Ok, not xFIP. ERA then.

 

Also, batting average is 100% accurate, yes. It’s just not meaningful. Likewise, SP Wins/Losses are not meaningful either.

 

I will correct myself, Blown Saves are better than SP Losses, because they have a parameter for the magnitude of the situation. But Tom makes a good point, the reason the BP has looked like one of the worst BPs in history is because they’ve had NO room for error. They’re not going to be perfect every night. And the nights where they’re NOT perfect we feel like it’s performing badly because they’ve had zero margin for error. In the Detroit loss, one of the Seattle losses, and yesterday.

[USAFChief]

Ok, not xFIP. ERA then.

 

Also, batting average is 100% accurate, yes. It’s just not meaningful. Likewise, SP Wins/Losses are not meaningful either.

 

I will correct myself, Blown Saves are better than SP Losses, because they have a parameter for the magnitude of the situation. But Tom makes a good point, the reason the BP has looked like one of the worst BPs in history is because they’ve had NO room for error. They’re not going to be perfect every night. And the nights where they’re NOT perfect we feel like it’s performing badly because they’ve had zero margin for error. In the Detroit loss, one of the Seattle losses, and yesterday.

Batting average is quite meaningful.

 

I'll take someone who's OBP is built on hits over built on walks every time.

 

For one thing, a single is more valuable than a walk, and for another, good pitchers aren't likely to give up walks. And beating good pitchers is required to advance in the postseason.

 

"Advanced" statistics can add valuable insights. That does not mean "old" statistics don't.

 

And some of the "advanced" stuff is questionable at best, junk at worst.

[cHawk]

 

I'll take someone who's OBP is built on hits over built on walks every time.

I won’t. 20 walks is better than 20 balls in play and batting .300.

 

20 balls in play, .300 AVG: 6 times on out of 20

20 walks: 20 times on out of 20

 

When a guy gets to first,

 

with no outs: He scores 85% of the time

with one out: He scores 50% of the time

with two outs: He scores 25% of the time

 

That averages out to about 50%.

So, therefore:

 

10 runs on 20 Walks

3 runs on 20 BIP

 

That says it all.

[h2oface]

Batting Average is not meaningful? 

What?

The purpose of a plate appearance is to get a hit. 

The game is based on throwing the ball, hitting the ball, and feilding the ball.

Getting more hits than not is not meaningful?

 

All those players in the HOF...... I wonder if they knew that. 

[USAFChief]

 

I won’t. 20 walks is better than 20 balls in play and batting .300.

 

20 balls in play, .300 AVG: 6 times on out of 20

20 walks: 20 times on out of 20

 

When a guy gets to first,

 

with no outs: He scores 85% of the time

with one out: He scores 50% of the time

with two outs: He scores 25% of the time

 

That averages out to about 50%.

So, therefore:

 

10 runs on 20 Walks

3 runs on 20 BIP

 

That says it all.

Well now you're just being ridiculous.

 

The proper comparison here would be 20 ABs and 20 singles vs 20 PAs and 20 walks.

 

I'll say it again...I'll take a guy with a .300 BA and a .350 OBP over a guy with a .200 BA and a .350 OBP, EVERY TIME.

 

Batting average is still a meaningful measure of offensive performance. Always has been, always will be.

 

Not the only one, for sure. But certainly meaningful, and one you should know about every hitter.

[cHawk]

 

Well now you're just being ridiculous.

 

The proper comparison here would be 20 ABs and 20 singles vs 20 PAs and 20 walks.

 

I'll say it again...I'll take a guy with a .300 BA and a .350 OBP over a guy with a .200 BA and a .350 OBP, EVERY TIME.

 

Batting average is still a meaningful measure of offensive performance. Always has been, always will be.

 

Not the only one, for sure. But certainly meaningful, and one you should know about every hitter.

My point is not “walks are better than singles.” Because of course they’re not. It’s “walks are better than balls in play” and for that reason. Because you won’t reach every time you put a ball in play.

 

And I was wrong, BA isn’t useless. But I’d take OBP, wRC+, and wOBA any day over BA.