BOS 4, MIN 2: More Missed Opportunities, Another Blown Lead

[cHawk]

 

Color me unimpressed with XFIP, Sierra, dohickky, or other new age hoohah.

 

Do you have a better stat where they rank below 15th?

 

EDIT: And please don't say blown saves. That's the SP W/L equivilant for relievers

[darwin22]

Saw this earlier in this thread....Twins have led or been tied in the 8th inning of every game this season and are 5-5.  Taking only that into account---one would be misled to believe the bullpen has been THE ONLY CAUSE for that.  Well.....that is NOT the case unless your definition of a bullpen is its made up of only 3 pitchers.  Stashak---has not been sharp in his 4.33 IP allowing 4 ER, but he does have 2 holds and a 10-2 K to BB ratio.  Dobnak:  Yes, not looking nearly as sharp as he did in ST, but his 9.00 ERA ( 6 ER in 6 IP is deceiving. In 4 of his 6 IP he's not allowed any runs.  The game that ballooned his ERA was Game #4 when he allowed five runs in the 9th with the Twins leading 15-1.  So----that leads us to IMO, the biggest culprit directly responsible for 2 of our 5 lossess-------blown saves by Colome.  Colome's 6.75 ERA could/should actually be worse as none of the 3 runs he allowed on Opening Day-were earned because of his own throwing error.  His latest meltdown on Sunday, can't be ignored, but I chalked up that loss to Baldelli's mismanagement earlier in the game by refusing to see from less than 100 feet away that I saw 300 miles AWAY that Shoemaker was losing it and needed to be hooked long before the 3 run HR that turned a 6-1 lead into a 6-4 game.  So------3 RPs--really only Colome have struggled this season.  The other main 5 (not counting Waddell's 1 IP)-----Duffey, Thielbar, Alcala, Robles and Rogers have combined to pitch 22.33 IP and have allowed only 1...yes only 1 ER all season!  That is a 0.403 ERA. The first ER allowed came today when Alcala allowed a solo HR in the 9th.  Moreover, these 5 have a combined 25-5 K to BB ratio.  Other than Colome, the bullpen is NOT the problem!!   So, what is the problem?  No shocker to those loyal diehard idiots like me that watch every game----------its the collection of misfit hitters in our lineup every day. When your lineup has 5 hitters/4 slots that are AUTOMATIC OUTS you are bound to fail to add on runs or get important hits with RISP------like today------0-8 with RISP and 10 LOB.  Naming names.......of here goes:  Polanco:  5-42/ .119 avg with only 2 EBH--0 HRs.  3x as many whiffs as walks (9-3).  Would sure like some logical explanation from Rocco why he continues to hit in top half of lineup.  He's been horrible!!  Culprit #2:  Miguel Sano. Now 5-35 (.086 avg) with only 3 RBI--2 in same game on his only HR.  Team leading 16 K's in 35 ABs.  The only positive is that he's drawn 9  walks.  Culprit #3-----Alex Kirilloff.  Ok, not fair as Kirilloff was demoted before Opening Day, but his demotion has forced Rocco into having to give Cave regular AB's.  He's not doing jack squat with his opportunity as he's hitting a robust .156 (5-32) with 1 extra base hits and a GOOSE EGG for RBI.  Also whiffs at a Sano-esque rate----11 K's with only 2 walks.  Which leads us to our dynamic catcher duo of Garver and Jeffers.  Garver------other than his big home opener 2 hit day with a big 3-run HR-------has been miserable.  Now 4-26 (.154 avg) on season with 4 RBI and like Sano and Cave---------a whiff machine.........10 Ks and only 2 BB. Jeffers has yet to show anything resembling his respectable numbers from last season as he's hitting .143 (2-14) with 9 K's and only 2 BB.  I will end my way too long disseration, but when you have 4 slots in your daily lineup/5 hitters with Garver and Jeffers alternating at C slot------that have combined to hit .141 (21-149) with only 7 extra base hits and WHIFF 3x more often (55 to 18) they can draw a walk----you have what you deserve---------a .500 team that sure looks to me that its headed in the wrong direction.

[Dantes929]

 

...and the bullpen is predictably derailing what should be an excellent start to the season.

Everyone on Earth, besides Falvine and a couple of pocket protectors here, saw it coming from miles away. Awful roster management.

Not sure what pocket protector means but probably pointed at me.   If 50 year history with 20 of those reading on line posts means anything, we can expect that when the pen gives up leads it is the worst pen ever and when they come in and simply hold onto wins they are overlooked.   Same happens with the manager.    Most of our losses have come as a result of not scoring league average in runs.  Some of our wins have come despite scoring less than league average in runs.    Most good teams tread water for much of the season combined with  a few good hot streaks.    1991 started out 2-9.   I wonder what commentors would have had to say about that back in the day.

 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Today was just an extension of the 8-6 loss to the Mariners. The Twins only needed to score 3 runs in 8 innings to win.

[bighat]

 

Sure feels like this lineup could use a spark. Too bad they don't have  a top hitting prospect just waiting in the wings across town. That'd be too good to be true.

True! Also wish they had a former MVP about to get healthy, maybe a guy who could play 3rd base and hits right-handed. Darn.

[Aggies7]

Not sure what pocket protector means but probably pointed at me. If 50 year history with 20 of those reading on line posts means anything, we can expect that when the pen gives up leads it is the worst pen ever and when they come in and simply hold onto wins they are overlooked. Same happens with the manager. Most of our losses have come as a result of not scoring league average in runs. Some of our wins have come despite scoring less than league average in runs. Most good teams tread water for much of the season combined with a few good hot streaks. 1991 started out 2-9. I wonder what commentors would have had to say about that back in the day.

Much of that 91 team had a ring already. This bunch (and that’s management as well as players) need to win a single playoff game before we compare them to a world champ

[gunnarthor]

 

Fact. Bullpen ranks entering today:

 

ERA 8th

WHIP 5th

FIP 4th

xFIP 3rd

SIERA 3rd

K-BB% 4th

CSW 6th

 

And giving up two runs on three hits and a walk over 4 1/3 innings today shouldn't do too much to hurt those numbers. The bullpen's WPA is junk, 19th in the league entering today, and that's part of how we get to 5-5, but all other signs are pointing to this unit not being an area of concern overall.

 

To your other point ...

 

Twins runs scored 2021

Innings 1-3: 21

Innings 4-6: 23

Innings 7-9: 13

 

When you're basically asking the bullpen to be perfect almost every night it's easy for it to feel like they're performing miserably.

Those stats are through 9 games against a few pretty iffy offensive teams. Not sure it tells us anything. The Twins pen seems like a weakness to me. We'll see how the season goes.

[D.C Twins]

The manager needs to up his game. He fills out the line up. His line up had

 

3rd: Garver

4th: Planco

5th: Sano

 

So, he placed three hitters in terrible slumps back to back to back in the heart of the order.

 

This is egregious. There is no advanced metric that can make it otherwise.

 

Step it up Baldi!

[wsnydes]

I'm more concerned about the offense going 0 for 8 in RISP situations than the bullpen. We saw this countless times in 2020, was the primary reason why we got swept in the playoffs, and the hitters are looking cold yet again. The bullpen giving up 2 runs over 4 1/3 innings isn't a huge concern to me

We also saw the RISP issue at the end of 2019. It's a problem for sure.

 

The bullpen is also an issue, but I'd agree with you that the offense is a bigger concern.

[USAFChief]

Do you have a better stat where they rank below 15th?

 

EDIT: And please don't say blown saves. That's the SP W/L equivilant for relievers

Blown saves.

[USAFChief]

I do agree with bringing up Kirilloff.

 

I don't know if he'll hit, but I know we can't have Cave in the every day outfield.

 

Do it. Don't care about another year of control 7 years from now. Hell, I might be dead.

[wsnydes]

Situational hitting on this team is atrocious. The amount of guys left on base by this team is astounding. The problem is not getting guys on base, it's driving them in. This bullpen is probably just fine if the offense does it's job, but since it's not, the bullpen does need to be perfect...which isn't a reasonable expectation.

 

I do think that Rocco managed today's game as if he had a doubleheader tomorrow, which he does. I think he left Happ in to try to buy some outs and then did the same with Dobnak. I can understand one of those instances, but not both. Especially when you're carrying 14 pitchers.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I do agree with bringing up Kirilloff.

I don't know if he'll hit, but I know we can't have Cave in the every day outfield.

Do it. Don't care about another year of control 7 years from now. Hell, I might be dead.

I agree — Dobnak will be coming off the books about that time, so they’ll have plenty of money

[wsnydes]

I do agree with bringing up Kirilloff.

 

I don't know if he'll hit, but I know we can't have Cave in the every day outfield.

 

Do it. Don't care about another year of control 7 years from now. Hell, I might be dead.

Agreed. I don't think LF needs to be the awkward situation that it is.

[h2oface]

 

Fact. Bullpen ranks entering today:

 

ERA 8th

WHIP 5th

FIP 4th

xFIP 3rd

SIERA 3rd

K-BB% 4th

CSW 6th

 

And giving up two runs on three hits and a walk over 4 1/3 innings today shouldn't do too much to hurt those numbers. The bullpen's WPA is junk, 19th in the league entering today, and that's part of how we get to 5-5, but all other signs are pointing to this unit not being an area of concern overall.

 

To your other point ...

 

Twins runs scored 2021

Innings 1-3: 21

Innings 4-6: 23

Innings 7-9: 13

 

When you're basically asking the bullpen to be perfect almost every night it's easy for it to feel like they're performing miserably.

 

And then there is the hidden facts that don't get into the stats. Game one... 4 runs scored as unearned, 3 because of Colome's own error, and the other unearned runs that lost the games in extra innings but were devasting.... 

 

I remember those facts, too, and whether or not they get factored into the bullpen stats, they happened and counted, eh?

[Tom Froemming]

 

And then there is the hidden facts that don't get into the stats. Game one... 4 runs scored as unearned, 3 because of Colome's own error, and the other unearned runs that lost the games in extra innings but were devasting.... 

 

I remember those facts, too, and whether or not they get factored into the bullpen stats, they happened and counted, eh?

 

So some more pitcher's fielding practice is in order. 

[h2oface]

Happ is one of the oldest starters in MLB, and has proved to be exactly what we thought he would be so far in 2021, a solid, average, MLB starter.

 

Well, we are a .500 team. I guess that all fits. I love stats, especially the most important one...... wins. We went after average and comeback and a tossed off closer on the cheap that the Sox and the rest of the league passed on, and this is were we are, early.

 

But hey... nothing a bunch of hits by the offense won't cure (although the offense has already gave them a 6 run lead with 11 outs to go, and that wasn't enough).  

 

 

The #MNTwins have tied or led in the 8th inning of every game this season and are 5-5.

 

That is just devasting.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Those stats are through 9 games against a few pretty iffy offensive teams. Not sure it tells us anything. The Twins pen seems like a weakness to me. We'll see how the season goes.

 

Yep, it's definitely early. We shall see, but I'd bet roughly 30 fanbases view their team's bullpen as a weakness right now. 

[wsnydes]

Yep, it's definitely early. We shall see, but I'd bet roughly 30 fanbases view their team's bullpen as a weakness right now.

In fairness, that's basically the case all season, every season, for every team!

[h2oface]

 

I do agree with bringing up Kirilloff.

I don't know if he'll hit, but I know we can't have Cave in the every day outfield.

Do it. Don't care about another year of control 7 years from now. Hell, I might be dead.

 

Hey, I have seen crazier things work...... like letting Baddoo play in the Show. The gall of Detroit.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Twins are a 72-90 team. Not much going for them. Terrible bullpen will sink any team and the offense is very weak. We won’t lose any playoff games this season. Cause we won’t be playing any.

I feel as bad as you do, but we are 6% into the season. It's baseball, things often change.

[Aerodeliria]

To me, this is just a normal loss--nothing special--not really a meltdown like three out of four of the other losses. You just aren't going to win very many games scoring two runs over nine innings. I think Dobnak pitched well. If he started the game and gave up a run in the 3rd inning no one would bat an eyelash.

 

I do have to say, however, that the lineup was baffling and although Buxton was batting leadoff, I ask 'Why?' Arraez should be the leadoff hitter and be on base so Buxton has an opportunity to drive him in (and get better pitch selection to boot).

[cHawk]

 

Blown saves.

 

Actually?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think it’s a fair question to ask why we used a long reliever into the 8th inning of a tie game coming off an off day. Maybe nothing would have been different but why did we need to try and get 3 innings out of him?

That's what the Astros did against us in the playoffs last year (with game 1 following an off day too), and it worked for them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I do agree with bringing up Kirilloff.

I don't know if he'll hit, but I know we can't have Cave in the every day outfield.

Do it. Don't care about another year of control 7 years from now. Hell, I might be dead.

FWIW, if they promote Kirilloff this Friday April 16, he will finish the 2021 season with no more than 171 days of service time, 1 short of the current threshold for a full season. (Assuming the regular season doesn't somehow extend beyond Oct. 3, of course.)

 

Correction: April 22nd is the first day we could call up Kirilloff, since he's already on the 40-man and finishing the season with 20 or fewer days on optional assignment would mean those days count as MLB service time days.

[Aggies7]

 

That's what the Astros did against us in the playoffs last year (with game 1 following an off day too), and it worked for them.

Literally every move imaginable in baseball history has worked before, but I’d rather go with some form of Rogers, Duffy, alcala or Robles over a third inning of dobnak. Tomorrow’s DH has two 7 inning games. And both starters routinely pitch into the 6th

[USAFChief]

Actually?

Well, yeah.

 

At the end if the day, they put a W in one column or an L in the other. It's literally all that matters.

 

I understand there are ways to attempt to measure "effectiveness," but what does actually get you? When they start awarding playoff spots based on xFIP I'll worry more about it.

 

In any case, "it's early" applies equally to those pointing to these measures, no?

[USAFChief]

Yep, it's definitely early. We shall see, but I'd bet roughly 30 fanbases view their team's bullpen as a weakness right now.

you might be right, dunno...but I don't give a hoot about the other 29 teams.

[h2oface]

 

So some more pitcher's fielding practice is in order. 

 

I believe it was a throwing error, so it flows right in to how he has been pitching.... although when he pitches, he makes it real easy to hit! 

[Rigby]

Did not see the game. Just read Cruz was home "resting". Does he have a problem?