What Do the Twins See in Jake Cave?

[Cody Pirkl]

Now that the Opening Day roster has been announced, it seems as though it’s been Garlick vs. Rooker for the last outfield spot all along despite a career worst 2020 and difficult spring for Jake Cave. What exactly do the Twins see in the left handed outfielder?Jake Cave’s selection to the Opening Day roster may have fans a bit surprised after a career worst 2020 in which he managed a .221/.285/.389 triple slash, good for 18% below league average. He just barely bested Brent Rooker’s spring numbers (.723 OPS vs .712), who many feel has the more exciting bat after his short showing in 2020. Garlick and Rooker in competition can be argued, but Jake Cave being one of the left fielders in the mix is the right choice at this time.

 

Playing the Matchups:

For as rough as 2020 was overall for Cave, he still held his own against right handed pitching by posting a .235/.303/.420 triple slash and was 4% below league average against right handed pitching. Hovering around league average against righties may not seem all that impressive, but being able to count on that production is actually pretty valuable. For example, Kyle Garlick has been 60% below league average against righties in his short career. Also take into account that 2020 was Cave’s worst year in those matchups by far. In his three seasons as a whole, he’s been 15% above league average against right handed pitching which is pretty incredible. Do we really think that Cave has declined this much against right handed pitching at the age of 28?

 

Pairing Cave with Garlick can ensure that he avoids his number one weakness being left handed pitching. Plugging him in against only right handed pitching and mixing in Garlick against lefties can go a long way in replacing Eddie Rosario’s bat according to the numbers.

 

 

Missing the Soft Stuff:

Just about everyone from Jake Cave to Nelson Cruz hit the fastball better than breaking balls and offspeed pitches, but Cave’s performance against the latter in 2020 just didn’t make a lot of sense.

 

 

Cave had two years of at least getting by before the bottom fell out in about 350 opportunities against these pitches in 2020. For reference, in 2019 Cave saw almost 900 breaking balls and offspeed pitches and performed much better against them. It’s far likelier that Cave was a small sample size victim than it is that he completely forgot how to hit the soft stuff at age 28. Few players can claim to hit these pitches well, but Cave could easily go back to at least scraping by against them in 2021 which would go a long way in a bounceback.

 

Defensive Value:

Defensive metrics are fluid and a little inconsistent, but it’s safe to say Cave has come a long way since his debut.

 

 

Cave was always an athletic outfielder with good speed, but he made tons of mistakes in his debut season. What Statcast has noticed in his game across the last three seasons is impressive. His “jump” measures his reaction time on fly balls which was actually better than Byron Buxton’s in 2020 believe it or not. The result was him being in the top 15% of outfielders in “Outs Above Average” which measures how many extra outs a player's defense results in.

 

It goes without saying that this kind of improvement doesn’t just happen. Cave has worked hard at his position and while that doesn’t mean anything in itself in the MLB, he’s become a great defensive outfielder. Even if his offense can’t fill the Rosario void, Cave’s ability to add value on defense could be higher than Eddie’s ever was.

 

Nobody is arguing for Jake Cave to be a full on starter, but he’s one of the better fourth outfielders in baseball. For example, the White Sox would likely kill to have a left fielder of Cave’s caliber at this point. In all likelihood, the left field situation will be a platoon until Kirilloff can come up and show he can play everyday. Until then, Jake Cave’s defense and left handed bat are exactly what the Twins need.

 

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[mikelink45]

As one of the posters who consistently puts Cave down, I appreciate your essay, but it does not go far enough.  What is Cave's future versus Rooker or others?  I am not a fan of Cave and do not like the idea that he blocks possible young talent that can do so much more. 

[Dman]

2020 was an odd year but so was 2019 with the juiced ball.  It is really hard to get a feel for what guys might do or be capable of doing in 2021.  I was fine with Caves production until last year when it was really bad. I think he gets hated on too much but he needs to perform this year.

 

Larnach needs to be added to the 40 man next year so someone has to go as they are not going to carry 8 outfielders.  Someone out of Garlic, Rooker and Cave need to be moved next year and honestly with all the pitchers that might need to be added they might want to slim down to 6 outfielders so might need to get rid of two of those three.

 

Cave needs to have a good year if he plans on staying with the Twins.  Average production won't keep him ahead of Kirilloff, Larnach and Celestino.  Also with so many lefties Rooker and Garlic have more value as righties.  He is going to have prove he belongs because after this year he doesn't look like a good fit in Minnesota.

[blindeke]

Great article. Platooning is still cool BTW.

[IndianaTwin]

Well, one thing they see is the ability to play CF so they don’t have a defensive outfield of Arraez-Kepler-Rooker on days Buxton is off.

[nclahammer]

Jake Cave is a nice guy who's had a pretty good run with the Twins as a 4th outfielder.  With the OF talent waiting behind him, I think this is his swan song with the team.

[stringer bell]

Cave is a pretty good defender, but I'd consider him "above average", not outstanding or elite. I certainly can see him being used as a defensive replacement for Arraez or Garlick in late innings when the Twins have the lead. My question is who is the starter in left field on April 1? 

 

My guess is that Cave gets the start, but it could be Arraez or Garlick. 

[Cody Pirkl]

As one of the posters who consistently puts Cave down, I appreciate your essay, but it does not go far enough.  What is Cave's future versus Rooker or others?  I am not a fan of Cave and do not like the idea that he blocks possible young talent that can do so much more.

With regards to Rooker it's actually very possibly Cave ends up with a better career than Rooker when all is said and done. Rooker is a volatile hitter with power and no defense and Cave can at least do a range of things reasonably well.

 

I also was bummed Rooker got sent down, but if people want to win this season then Cave was probably the right choice over Rooker given the information above. The Twins have more value in a versatile left handed outfielder in the mix than two poor fielding right handed ones.

[Cody Pirkl]

Jake Cave is a nice guy who's had a pretty good run with the Twins as a 4th outfielder.  With the OF talent waiting behind him, I think this is his swan song with the team.

I agree. Now is his time to get some ABs but his left handed bat may be unnecessary in a short while when Kirilloff comes up, let alone shortly after when it's Larnachs turn. I do think the Cave/Garlick platoon will be formidable for now though.

[saviking]

Cave is a clog in the rookie call up wheel. Hope the Twins unclog that wheel and send Cave down the river soon. I am not a fan of his ..

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's not easy to maintain offensive value with Cave's K rates either. In 2018-2019, he had ~.360 BABIPs to help prop up his offense. In 2020, his BABIP was still above average at .323 but his overall offensive performance was below average (his BB% and ISO also dropped, and the ISO may be hard to recover to 2019 levels if the ball has changed since then).

[beckmt]

If you figure Arraez will play LF 3 days a week (if he doesn't there is something wrong here), there are only 4 days to cover with Arraez playing 2nd the other 3 days or third. That leaves Cave playing about 3 times a week and Garlick 1 until Kirloff comes up.  We shall see. 

[Major League Ready]

Over his last 1,000 ABs, Rosario had a wRC+ of 98. Jake Cave had a wRC+ of 103 during the same time period and 572 ABs. Cave’s defense is better and I would guess Garlick will be about the same, maybe even a little better given how often Rosario throws to the wrong base or airmails the cutoff man. I think a platoon of Cave / Garlick has a good chance of being an upgrade.

 

The even better news is that Kirilloff and/or Larnach should being in those positions and producing well above average for the next 6+ years. I think there is a good chance Cave is traded sometime this year.

[iowaguychris]

He's fine as a 4th outfielder, but when you have a backlog of talent behind him - its time to try and trade him and see what you can get.  If he were a switch hitter or even right handed - it may change things, but alas here we are.

[gunnarthor]

I'm ok with Cave. He's a 4th OFer. That means he'll get spot starts but it also means he'll hold down a position for a bit while we wait for Larnich/Kiriloff/Rooker to be "ready." He's fine at his role. I would have been ok if the Twins let him go and gave his role to LaMonte Wade instead but having a guy like Cave is a good thing. I would be surprised if he got 300 plate appearances this year. 

[ToddlerHarmon]

I am pleased that the Twins are generally keeping and starting the better defenders. That seems to be the case with Cave vs the other available options.

 

[Greglw3]

 

Well, one thing they see is the ability to play CF so they don’t have a defensive outfield of Arraez-Kepler-Rooker on days Buxton is off.

I honestly think Broxton would make the better option than Cave in CF if Buxton goes down. It seems the Twins have really struggled when Cave has had to fill in for Buxton.

 

I’m not a big fan, except he’s a Twin! But he could win me over as Dobnak has. I do appreciate that Cave plays strong defense and plays really hard, like Lenny Dykstra did. It’s just that bat overall has been below major league average for an MLB outfielder, IMO, although I have seen flashes that make me think he could turn that around. Big year for Jake Cave. I think, in reality, the LF position hasn’t been won. Someone may still seize it. Otherwise Rocco will be happy to rotate based on matchups. Don’t count out Rooker and Broxton....it’s a long MLB season!

[Trov]

 

As one of the posters who consistently puts Cave down, I appreciate your essay, but it does not go far enough.  What is Cave's future versus Rooker or others?  I am not a fan of Cave and do not like the idea that he blocks possible young talent that can do so much more. 

I am not a fan of Cave either, but if the team feels he gives them a better chance to win now, versus someone else then so be it.  You advocate for Rooker, which I support, but reports are he cannot field pretty much at all.  Which means he will need to hit that much more than what a platoon of Cave and Garlick does because both are reported to be better on defense.  Either guy will be hitting near bottom every game.  If Rooker could carry the offense and make up for his terrible defense and we would win more games with him, I would be all for him out there. 

 

However, we need to win now, not get a guy some time to win for later.  If that means sitting a guy that is not ready, then do it.  Personally, I think Kirolloff will be making his way over sooner than later. 

[The Wise One]

Cave is a fourth outfielder. That does not block any talent from becoming a major league player except for the player destined to become the next Jake Cave. Jake Cave will continue to be a Twin until either his production drops or the year after he wins an arbitration case. People just need to get used to the idea

[h2oface]

All that heralded outfield depth, and we are left with Cave, Garlick, ....... Astudillo, and Arraez - the latter 2 not even close to outfielders. That is some outfield depth, eh? It is what championship teams are made of.

 

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Cave is a clog in the rookie call up wheel. Hope the Twins unclog that wheel and send Cave down the river soon. I am not a fan of his ..

Who's he blocking? It seemed a lot more like Kirilloff played himself out of a spot rather than Cave just having it handed to him. In Rooker's case they put a lot of emphasis on his defense. If anyone I'd say Garlick is the clog in the rookie call ups at this point, as I don't think both him and Rooker were ever going to make the roster together.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

If you figure Arraez will play LF 3 days a week (if he doesn't there is something wrong here), there are only 4 days to cover with Arraez playing 2nd the other 3 days or third. That leaves Cave playing about 3 times a week and Garlick 1 until Kirloff comes up.  We shall see. 

That's what I'd hope for myself although it's hard to forecast how much they'll use Arraez in LF. I wish they'd given him more starts in LF this spring but I genuinely think they wanted Kirilloff to take that spot early on.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

He's fine as a 4th outfielder, but when you have a backlog of talent behind him - its time to try and trade him and see what you can get.  If he were a switch hitter or even right handed - it may change things, but alas here we are.

Kirilloff didn't make the team and it wasn't because of Cave. Rooker was either going to beat Garlick out or go to AAA, I don't think it was ever him vs Cave.

 

Cave being a lefty is fantastic for the situation we're in now. Once Kirilloff and Larnach are up his being left handed may be redundant, but I can almost guarantee you playing the matchups of Cave and one of the righties produces more value that rotating Rooker and Garlick.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Cave is a fourth outfielder. That does not block any talent from becoming a major league player except for the player destined to become the next Jake Cave. Jake Cave will continue to be a Twin until either his production drops or the year after he wins an arbitration case. People just need to get used to the idea

Even if he keeps doing what he's done in his career I think they'll try to trade him in for whatever value they can once Kirilloff and Larnach are here to stay. At that point with those two and Kepler it'll without a doubt be better to have a right handed backup.

 

But I agree, Cave is a mainstay at the moment. He does some things well and some things not so well. Nobody needs to be fired up for him but he's solid.

[wabene]

I don't want to see Arraez in LF at all. He is not good out there. If his knees are a problem then I surely don't want him running around in the outfield. He is infield depth for me really only playing second and third with Polanco covering short. Maybe first and DH once and a while as it stands now but if Rooker and or Kirlloff were up and performing they could cover those positions. DH ok, but Luis is too short for first.

[Doctor Gast]

Cave is ok at LF, Buxton makes him look good. He beat out Kiriloff as LH platoon. But as Buxton replacement we should do much better. If want to compete.

[Channing1964]

Great take...however...a couple things...Jake Cave has never been able to carry Eddie Rosario's gear bag from the bus to the clubhouse let alone wear his cleats in any facet of the game. Just stop with that nonsense. Jake Cave will never play center field unless its a 12-2 blowout. If Buxton gets hurt you will see Kepler(or maybe Celestino) in center and then maybe once in awhile Cave in right or left. What everyone here always wants to say is how Rosario sucks on defense and thats just bullcrap. In 2019 Buxton got hurt and they moved Rosario to right field so Arraez could stumble around in left. I actually played the game and everything is way different when you have to switch like that. Rosario also had a sprained ankle and played through it. It doesn't show up on your damn analytics spread sheet. To say Cave or Rooker or Kiriloff or Garlick is a better defender than Rosario is hilarious. That position will now become a revolving door all year that will have all of us holding our breath whenever a ball gets hit out there or covering our eyes whenever one of them comes up with runners in scoring position. Don't worry though. We have the best front office in the history of Major League Baseball. They know what they are doing.

[ashbury]

I actually played the game

Derek Falvey played baseball at Trinity College. Thad Levine played baseball at Haverford College. Were you still playing at a level comparable to NCAA when you were in your 20s?

 

You really should give the FO credit for having the experience that you say is important.

 

[Dr. Evil]

I have a hard time believing that any of our prospects could out perform a platoon of Cave and Garlic out of the gate. Especially considering last year's covid circumstances. Now once they settle back in and get some current games under their belts, who ever breaks out will have a clear and painless path to every day play on the big club. Patience in this situation is best IMHO.