Why Isn't Dobnak in the Starting Rotation?

[Rosterman]

THEY JUST SIGNED HIM TO A FIVE-YEAR CONTRACT!

 

Here's hoping he's not another Joe Mays! Or Nick Blackburn!

[Diesel]

THEY JUST SIGNED HIM TO A FIVE-YEAR CONTRACT!

 

Here's hoping he's not another Joe Mays! Or Nick Blackburn!

It can end up being an eight year deal. Dobnak can very well end up being the next Radke for the Twins

[Major League Ready]

 

Dobnak's defining stats this year seem to be a super-low WHIP (0.44) and more K's (18) than innings pitched (13.2). Let's take a look at the regular season SP results for some similar recent spring performers.

 

To explain, I went to MLB.com and looked at their spring training stat registers for the past few years. I set it to all pitchers (not just "qualifiers") and sorted by lowest WHIP, then eyeballed the list to find SP who pitched a decent number of innings and then were primarily SP during the season.

 

2019:

Sonny Gray -- great season!

Eric Lauer -- meh season

Marcus Stroman -- great season!

Trevor Richards -- meh season

 

2018:

Jacob deGrom -- great season!

Lance Lynn -- meh season

Luke Weaver -- bad season

Jakob Junis -- meh season

 

2017:

Dylan Unsworth -- did not pitch in the majors?

Masahiro Tanaka -- meh season

Felix Hernandez -- meh season

Clayton Kershaw -- great season!

 

This is by no means scientific, and league WHIP has dropped and K's have spiked the past couple years, so it gets harder to find comps the further you go back.

 

But it seems pretty clear that the sample is too small to warrant reading too much into Dobnak's spring line so far.

 

It's more scientific than just assuming to know the relationship between spring training stats and in-season effectiveness. I found it interesting. Thanks for going through the effort.

[Fatbat]

I find anything to do with Dobber fascinating. He has strength, personality, mindfulness, determination, focus. I wonder what he tests at in a personality exam?

[cHawk]

Well they just signed him to an extension.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Here we are once again at the Clearance Table of the Bargain Basement of Major League Baseball. Over there is a box of miscellaneous electrical fixtures, a pile of dangerous extension cords, some lamps, a collection of brooms, and a baby crib full of league veterans. 

 

Now and then a savvy shopper will emerge from this place with a Nelson Cruz or even an Ichiro Suzuki with a couple good years left in him. Usually they wish they'd just grabbed some of those cheap extension cords. The Minnesota Twins are famous for trying and failing to get great deals here. Truth is, all the teams shop here, and usually fail. Age and injuries wear down even the best players. 

The Twins have done quite well bargain shopping recently and likely wouldn't have been back to back Central champs without it. Pineda, Cron, Schoop, Clippard, Martin Perez just to name a few these last few years. Do you look back and see superstars come out of this group? No, but a lot of these players are cheap gambles they make that have hit and been net positives. Signings like Happ and especially Shoemaker at $2m are a big part of what the Twins do to stay competitive.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

I think the issue is the FO said they wanted to take best players north to start the season and it was one of the reasons they didn't take Kirilloff with them.  Whether you like it or not competition means something even in spring where stats mean less than normal. The other thing is as fans, and hopefully the FO, you want your best 5 pitchers pitching to start the season. While it is just spring and stats don't matter Randy has been so dominant that right now it appears that isn't the case.  

 

I know there is only so much competition you can have against veteran pitchers. With Happs late start and Shoemaker blowing up one game and not having a great K\9 this spring it creates the feeling that they are not as ready as Randy to start the season.  While i get that Randy can piggy back off of Happ or Shoemaker it seems like a waste if one of those guys gives up five runs and then Randy pitches well the rest of the way and we lose by one run or something.  That isn't going to sit well at all.

 

Don't get me wrong I like the depth and I begged the FO for veteran depth but that was before Randy K\9 Dobnak showed up this spring.

 

I get that you can't count vets out in Spring Training and they may very well end up starting the season well but I also get why people are questioning it too.  Randy has looked like a front line starter the other two have not.

I do get the argument for sure in favor of the best performer getting the job. It's important to remember though that Dobnak finished 2020 in AAA while Happ put up a mid 3s ERA and Matt Shoemaker threw a scoreless start in the playoffs for Toronto. Dobnak's new strikeouts are exciting but who knows if they'll carry over into the season and gambling on that may cost you one of Happ or Shoemaker if you move them out of the rotation. 

 

It's at least understandable that the Twins are taking the safe approach and beginning the season with the two pitchers who have been serviceable for their entire careers.

[Major League Ready]

 

The Twins have done quite well bargain shopping recently and likely wouldn't have been back to back Central champs without it. Pineda, Cron, Schoop, Clippard, Martin Perez just to name a few these last few years. Do you look back and see superstars come out of this group? No, but a lot of these players are cheap gambles they make that have hit and been net positives. Signings like Happ and especially Shoemaker at $2m are a big part of what the Twins do to stay competitive.

 

When you have half the revenue of the very top teams and there are several teams with $100M+ revenue advantage .... Competing absolutely REQUIRES getting more productivity per dollar spent. It's an absolute mathematical certainty so it just astonishes me that people bitch about bargain shopping.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Frankly, because baseball is stupid.

In what other major sport do you see teams intentionally holding better players out of games to play inferior players? You see it with the antiquated and awful service time rules. You see situations like this, especially with the Twins, where a veteran earns a spot based on a contract vs. merit. It’s mind boggling sometimes.

It’s my favorite sport, I love it, but things like this makes the product worse than it could be. Only a handful of team every year field their best players all year. It’s pretty ridiculous when you take a step back and think about it.

Divisions have been won lost by one game. Contending teams like the Twins “punting” early in the year for the sake of service time and sunk costs on veterans drives me nuts. A random game in May means just as much as one in September.

I'd encourage everyone to use a broader timeline to determine merit. I had alluded to this in another response, but Happ would have been a staple in the Twins rotation last season with a mid 3s ERA and Shoemaker was a starter in the playoffs. Dobnak has had an exciting spring but he was in AAA when all of this was happening in 2020. If you think Happ and Shoemaker's spring performances are indicative that they're at the end of their careers then that's certainly a fair argument. I just think in regards to merit, Dobnak would be fortunate to compile a career similar to either of the two.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

I'd like to harness Dobnak's magic right out of the gate, but understand that assurances may have been made to others. Is any thought being given to a 6-man rotation to start the season? Would there be any resistance from Maeda and Berrios?

 

My understanding of Maeda's contract is that it's incentive-heavy, tied to innings, so that could be a consideration. Otherwise I think a 6-man rotation is a good way to ease us into a season that promises to be almost three times as long as last year. Injuries or poor play will inevitably get us back to five starters soon enough.

Personally my hope was to at least open the season with a 6 man rotation but it never sounded like anything the Twins would consider. In all fairness I don't think it would last very long with Happ's age, Shoemaker's injury history and just the overall risk of pitching. Maybe they just figured it would never hold up over an entire season? Who knows.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

To me, the obvious solution is to have Dobnak in the rotation and let Shoemaker slot into the bullpen.  Shoe has done nothing to make him a LOCK as a starting pitcher and Happ has a better track record than Shoe.  Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak.

Shoemaker has been a starting pitcher for pretty much his entire career and we've got no idea how he'd do in the bullpen. If the Twins weren't confident in Shoemaker's ability to make starts to the point where a bad spring could send him to the bullpen they would have either signed a different starter or just given that $2m to a reliever who could be counted on. 

[Dodecahedron]

Shoemaker is ancient history. Having him start any games, barring someone else being injured, is a waste of time. He is a solid backstop, a solid contingency plan. That's it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins have done quite well bargain shopping recently and likely wouldn't have been back to back Central champs without it. Pineda, Cron, Schoop, Clippard, Martin Perez just to name a few these last few years. Do you look back and see superstars come out of this group? No, but a lot of these players are cheap gambles they make that have hit and been net positives. Signings like Happ and especially Shoemaker at $2m are a big part of what the Twins do to stay competitive.

At the same time, there are still lingering questions about how bargain shopping can influence postseason results. A guy like Happ is useful to almost every team to get through the regular season -- but the Yankees were pretty deliberate to minimize his use/exposure in the postseason. Can/will the Twins do that?

[Major League Ready]

 

At the same time, there are still lingering questions about how bargain shopping can influence postseason results. A guy like Happ is useful to almost every team to get through the regular season -- but the Yankees were pretty deliberate to minimize his use/exposure in the postseason. Can/will the Twins do that?

 

Can you name a team with the Twins revenue or less that has post season success as a result of signing an elite starting pitcher in free agency? Charlie Morton is the only guy I can think of and that was a very modest contract in comparison to a normal FA deal for an impact SP. Might even say it was a bargain. Of course, it helps that Morton had an significant preference to be in Florida.

 

Perhaps more to the point, if we look back at post season success or even getting to the post season, developing pitching has been by far the most determinant factor for mid or small market teams or even for large market teams. The difference is the large market guys can sign 3 elite SPs and still have the Twins budget leftover. The most realistic strategy for teams outside the top dozen in revenue is a deadline trade for a rental.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Can you name a team with the Twins revenue or less that has post season success as a result of signing an elite starting pitcher in free agency? 

Not saying anything like that at all. Just that while there is definitely value in Happ-like signings, there are still limits to that value come October and it's important to keep that in mind too. For the Twins, that doesn't mean they have to sign elite FA instead of guys like Happ -- they may just need to calibrate their trade deadline and prospect promotion strategies a little differently.

[Major League Ready]

 

Not saying anything like that at all. Just that while there is definitely value in Happ-like signings, there are still limits to that value come October and it's important to keep that in mind too. For the Twins, that doesn't mean they have to sign elite FA instead of guys like Happ -- they may just need to calibrate their trade deadline and prospect promotion strategies a little differently.

 

I follow now and agree! I am hoping we finally have pitching prospects that will allow us to get some post season production out of pitchers who are prospects at the moment like some other teams have done the last couple years. A great rental would be nice too.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

At the same time, there are still lingering questions about how bargain shopping can influence postseason results. A guy like Happ is useful to almost every team to get through the regular season -- but the Yankees were pretty deliberate to minimize his use/exposure in the postseason. Can/will the Twins do that?

The postseason question remains to be seen but what can't be denied is that the Twins look like a sustainable winner and that at least part of it is a result to their free agency philosophy. The Liam Hendricks signing may very well benefit the Sox better in a postseason series but would they have been better positioned to win the division if they resigned Colome and signed more depth with the remaining money?

 

I agree with the argument that high end talent plays up better in postseason situations but I also don't blame these acquisitions they've made for the sweeps the last two seasons.