Why Isn't Dobnak in the Starting Rotation?

[Cody Pirkl]

Randy Dobnak has proven himself to be a steady groundball pitcher in his first two years. This spring however, he looks like a strikeout machine. So why isn’t Dobnak opening the season in the rotation?Spring training stats as a whole are pretty inconsequential, but Randy Dobnak has looked like an ace with his 18 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings while only allowing one run. Meanwhile Matt Shoemaker has been pummeled as displayed by his 7.71 ERA through 9 1/3 innings. J.A. Happ has been absolutely battered in both of his outings since returning from COVID. Given the performances of the Twins supposed fourth and fifth starters, people have started to ask the question: Why isn’t Dobnak in the Opening Day rotation?

 

 

Cash Considerations:

J.A. Happ was the Twins big rotation acquisition of the winter coming off a resurgent season posting a 3.47 ERA which cost them $8 million The Twins understandably saw a crafty control artist who could eat up some innings in a season where doing so would be more valuable than ever. The Twins later signed the normally effective but oft injured Matt Shoemaker to a $2 million deal to round out the back of their rotation.

 

There are two considerations when it comes to these two veteran acquisitions. First of all, both were likely interested in coming to Minnesota due to the openings in the rotation. In Shoemaker’s case, it was announced that he was the fifth starter before Spring Training even started, which likely means he signed his contract with the promise of that spot. Things can happen to change such a promise, but using a couple of spring starts as their reasoning would be a bad look for the Twins.

 

Second, the $10 million invested in the pair isn’t a huge amount, but it’s an amount the Twins allocated to the rotation. The best case scenario is to send one of the two to a bullpen role which they may not excel in and certainly wouldn’t be happy with. The worst case scenario is to cut bait altogether and waste the money spent.

 

Roster Depth:

The Twins have a lot more flexibility with Dobnak in his Opening Day bullpen role. With the current plan in place, the Twins have five starters who have historically been effective taking the ball every fifth day. Meanwhile Dobnak is always available to step in for a long relief outing whether it’s a planned piggyback for Happ who may still be building up or a short start from anyone else in the rotation. If Dobnak is ever unavailable when the bullpen is worn down, he can be replaced by an arm from St. Paul as well.

 

Also of note, Happ is 38 years old which is never a great indicator of long term health and Shoemaker hasn’t topped 31 innings in three years. Dobnak will almost certainly wind up in the rotation by season’s end, but not before getting as many valuable innings as possible from the Twins winter acquisitions.

 

Plenty of people are frustrated with the Twins failure to utilize Dobnak as a starter given his spring numbers compared to Happ and Shoemaker, but it’s worth trusting the process. Dobnak is still available at a moment's notice to step in and that opportunity will certainly present itself at some point. It’s possible this could finally be the year that one of the two veterans completely falls apart, but their Spring Training stats are not something to look at as an indicator of what’s to come. We’ll see plenty of Randy Dobnak in 2021, but him being in the rotation is not a necessity to open the season.

 

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[DocBauer]

So let me get this straight. We signed a very nice #4 SP with a very nice career despite being shelled a bit in the bandbox that is Yankees stadium. (Better before N.Y. and a surprisingly good 2020). But a pretty damn good SP before that. Then, we took a cheap flier on a #5 option for depth that can be very good when healthy.

 

But we are worried about a talented prospect that a lot of us really like and are excited about who has been good and looks borderline amazing with his new pitch?

 

We all know this works itself out. Happ and Shoemaker look great! One or both get injured. That is where Dobnak, and maybe Thorpe Check in ahead of the prospects on the rise and look like part of the future.

 

The depth is there and enviable. Just doesn't mean Dobber has to be in the rotation from day one.

[jimbo92107]

Here we are once again at the Clearance Table of the Bargain Basement of Major League Baseball. Over there is a box of miscellaneous electrical fixtures, a pile of dangerous extension cords, some lamps, a collection of brooms, and a baby crib full of league veterans. 

 

Now and then a savvy shopper will emerge from this place with a Nelson Cruz or even an Ichiro Suzuki with a couple good years left in him. Usually they wish they'd just grabbed some of those cheap extension cords. The Minnesota Twins are famous for trying and failing to get great deals here. Truth is, all the teams shop here, and usually fail. Age and injuries wear down even the best players. 

 

Here we are again, spinning that big wheel on Happ and Shoemaker. Yep, the probability is low that either one of them will shine as bright as in their late 20's, but each guy was a star for a while, so maybe...

 

Come to think of it, we don't just do this for them. Whom amongst us did not smile when old Bartolo Colon fooled a few more hitters, then did his behind-the-back flip to first, then hit an improbable home run? The story of the Savvy Veteran is as old as the game itself. Some of us dream that a little of that old glory rubs off on our crusty selves, don't we? 

 

Good luck to Happ and Shoe. We got plenty of backup, if they fail. 

[Dman]

I think the issue is the FO said they wanted to take best players north to start the season and it was one of the reasons they didn't take Kirilloff with them.  Whether you like it or not competition means something even in spring where stats mean less than normal. The other thing is as fans, and hopefully the FO, you want your best 5 pitchers pitching to start the season. While it is just spring and stats don't matter Randy has been so dominant that right now it appears that isn't the case.  

 

I know there is only so much competition you can have against veteran pitchers. With Happs late start and Shoemaker blowing up one game and not having a great K\9 this spring it creates the feeling that they are not as ready as Randy to start the season.  While i get that Randy can piggy back off of Happ or Shoemaker it seems like a waste if one of those guys gives up five runs and then Randy pitches well the rest of the way and we lose by one run or something.  That isn't going to sit well at all.

 

Don't get me wrong I like the depth and I begged the FO for veteran depth but that was before Randy K\9 Dobnak showed up this spring.

 

I get that you can't count vets out in Spring Training and they may very well end up starting the season well but I also get why people are questioning it too.  Randy has looked like a front line starter the other two have not.

[beckmt]

I could see the Twins putting Happ on the 10 day DL due to need to ramp up from COVID, that would let Dobnak start a couple of times before Happ is ready, otherwise Dobnak will probably be mopping up the bad Happ starts.

[Darius]

Frankly, because baseball is stupid.

 

In what other major sport do you see teams intentionally holding better players out of games to play inferior players? You see it with the antiquated and awful service time rules. You see situations like this, especially with the Twins, where a veteran earns a spot based on a contract vs. merit. It’s mind boggling sometimes.

 

It’s my favorite sport, I love it, but things like this makes the product worse than it could be. Only a handful of team every year field their best players all year. It’s pretty ridiculous when you take a step back and think about it.

 

Divisions have been won lost by one game. Contending teams like the Twins “punting” early in the year for the sake of service time and sunk costs on veterans drives me nuts. A random game in May means just as much as one in September.

[BeatTheRich]

I'd like to harness Dobnak's magic right out of the gate, but understand that assurances may have been made to others. Is any thought being given to a 6-man rotation to start the season? Would there be any resistance from Maeda and Berrios?

 

My understanding of Maeda's contract is that it's incentive-heavy, tied to innings, so that could be a consideration. Otherwise I think a 6-man rotation is a good way to ease us into a season that promises to be almost three times as long as last year. Injuries or poor play will inevitably get us back to five starters soon enough.

[ToddlerHarmon]

To add more calming words, Dobnak probably isn't ready to throw 180 innings anyway, so consider the time waiting in the wings as preemptive rest?

 

It appears that Dobnak will make the roster, and that he will pitch substantial innings early. So, the odds that he gains a layer of rust while waiting are low.

 

As for Darius' question, every professional sport has teams that allocate playing time according to contract size. That said, it isn't a good idea, which you can see by looking no further than our local NBA "team."

[old nurse]

I thought I read that many teams will use 6 man rotations. Perhaps there is some Washington Senators fan from the 90s who can remember a team using less than 5 starting pitchers

[Richard Swerdlick]

I grew up remembering the Yankees of the 50's who often did horribly in Spring training competition but blow the league away once the season started. 

[Major League Ready]

I didn't realize they had formally announced the starting rotation and a Google search did not produce an announcement. Is their a link to this announcement or was it mentioned on a broadcast?

 

edit: Never mid I found an article on MLB.com.

 

I would prefer Dobnak but the use of pitchers is going to be unconventional this year given their limited innings last year. He will be in the rotation soon enough if he pitches anything like he did in ST unless all five starters are great and I would be just fine with that scenario.

 

We also don't know what assurances were made to Happ and Shoemaker. Recruiting requires promising things so there is a good chance promises were made we don't know about. There are 30 people in the world that hold the top spots in front offices. That type of job is never held by stupid people despite the consistent insistence of some sports fans. 

[Doctor Gast]

I think that the Twins needs to take advantage of Dobnak while Donaldson and Simmons are both are healthy. And not wait until both are injured and then throw him in the rotation. Then complain how bad he is when balls go through the INF and he needs to change his game plan.

I don't think anyone will hit 180 innings although Berrios should come close. I think Dobnak has just as much ability to reach higher innings as any other starter other than Berrios. Expectations on Shoemaker is that he wouldn't be able to pitch a ton of innings.

Put Dobnak in the rotation and force the others to force him out. Competition is the name of the game. Qualifications should be on merit not politics. If there is a starting clause in both contracts, I guess that would make bad contracts even worse.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'd like to harness Dobnak's magic right out of the gate, but understand that assurances may have been made to others. Is any thought being given to a 6-man rotation to start the season? Would there be any resistance from Maeda and Berrios?

 

My understanding of Maeda's contract is that it's incentive-heavy, tied to innings, so that could be a consideration. Otherwise I think a 6-man rotation is a good way to ease us into a season that promises to be almost three times as long as last year. Injuries or poor play will inevitably get us back to five starters soon enough.

 

I would rather see them stack starters because a 6 man rotation likely puts more strain on the BP. You have one less BP arm unless you elect to reduce the bench in favor of the 6th starter. You also probably loose your best long reliever. Does an extra day rest provide benefits that outweigh these things? I don't think so but it's worthy of discussion.

[iowaguychris]

He's going to get plenty of starts this year - sadly there is no way our current starting 5 will all last all year long without missing any starts.  That is why we need a strong #6 - and he's looking very much like the guy for that role.  Great position to be in that has no pressure to start off the year, but when called upon can take that role and never let go if we performs well.

[TopGunn#22]

To me, the obvious solution is to have Dobnak in the rotation and let Shoemaker slot into the bullpen.  Shoe has done nothing to make him a LOCK as a starting pitcher and Happ has a better track record than Shoe.  Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak.

[USAFChief]

 

 

There are 30 people in the world that hold the top spots in front offices. That type of job is never held by stupid people despite the consistent insistence of some sports fans.

Hawk Harrelson says "hi."

[Major League Ready]

It could be as simple as they promised Shoemaker and/or Happ a starting role. However, maybe they are looking for an unconventional ways to get more innings out of the BP this year to keep innings down for their starters who throw less than half their normal innings last year. What if they came up with a plan to use Dobnak every 3rd to 5th day for an average of 3 innings? That’s roughly 45 appearances and 135 innings or about twice as many as the average RP.

 

That plan would seem to take full advantage of this depth. This is only feasible if the others remain healthy. Of course, an injury results in Dobnak going to the rotation which resolves my objection to him not being in the rotation from the start. If an injury moves Dobnak to the rotation, perhaps they bring in Duran or Canterino or maybe even Ober to take this newly defined role.

[rdehring]

Lots of good comments. But I think I will sit back and wait to see how Rocco handles this.

 

I like the idea I read above of Dobber stacking with say, Happ, and pitching 4-5 innings to close out his first start. But I also cringed when reading the above comment that it is a waste of his appearance if the Twins are down 4 or 5 runs when he gets into the game. Yes, these early games count as much as the last week of September.

 

Expect by mid-season everything will have worked its way out and will be shocked if one or two of the first week's starters aren't on the IL or even no longer with the Twins. Will be equally shocked if Dobber doesn't get more than 150 innings this year, which is about the most he can be expected to provide. 

[Major League Ready]

 

Hawk Harrelson says "hi."

 

I have no idea of Ken Harrelson relative intellect. It’s also irrelevant given the profiles of current GMs / CBOs. The fact you reference someone with this background from 35 years ago suggests you don’t understand the difference in skill sets and experience of current executives. I guess if we concede these people are highly skilled it's pretty hard to assume the problem is they are idiots if we don't like a decision they make. 

[Dman]

 

Frankly, because baseball is stupid.

In what other major sport do you see teams intentionally holding better players out of games to play inferior players? You see it with the antiquated and awful service time rules. You see situations like this, especially with the Twins, where a veteran earns a spot based on a contract vs. merit. It’s mind boggling sometimes.

It’s my favorite sport, I love it, but things like this makes the product worse than it could be. Only a handful of team every year field their best players all year. It’s pretty ridiculous when you take a step back and think about it.

Divisions have been won lost by one game. Contending teams like the Twins “punting” early in the year for the sake of service time and sunk costs on veterans drives me nuts. A random game in May means just as much as one in September.

 

Like I have been all spring maybe I am over reacting but if someone suggested Berrios come out the pen or piggy back off of Happ and Shoemaker how would this board react?  They had about the same ERA and WHIP last year.  Berrios has better peripheral's like K rate but if Dobnak has found his Strike out pitch there won't be much of anything separating them anymore except that Dobnak keeps the ball on the ground and Berrios doesn't.  I guess if you can justify that to yourselves then all is well.  

 

Randy does have SSS issues all the way around but watching him this spring he looks like a different pitcher to me.  Maybe have Berrios come out of the pen?

[drivlikejehu]

Basing initial assignments on spring training would not be more effective than the current system of relying on a player's overall career. That's a pretty basic fact that has been demonstrated countless times. 

[darin617]

The biggest concern will be how long it will take him to ramp up to being a starter? If he is stuck in the bullpen for the first 5 weeks just throwing an inning or 2 how long will it take him to be ready to go 6-7 innings?

[Fatbat]

If there are 3 guys on the twins that will crew up 180+ innings, it's Maeda, Berries, Dobnak. It's more important to finish a game strong than anything else so let Dobber tag team Happ or Shoe. By June, someone will miss a start and Dobnak will step in just fine. I predict both Dobber and Thorpe will be on the playoff roster!

[D.C Twins]

Dobnak is legit and in a groove. Every game counts the same in the standings.

 

He has been pitching better than Pineda as well. If the goal is to win the most games, it is egregious for Dobnak not go go north as a starter.

 

Life is a competition. The goal is to win games not sooth the egos of old and broken free agent pitchers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Dobnak's defining stats this year seem to be a super-low WHIP (0.44) and more K's (18) than innings pitched (13.2). Let's take a look at the regular season SP results for some similar recent spring performers.

 

To explain, I went to MLB.com and looked at their spring training stat registers for the past few years. I set it to all pitchers (not just "qualifiers") and sorted by lowest WHIP, then eyeballed the list to find SP who pitched a decent number of innings and then were primarily SP during the season.

 

2019:

Sonny Gray -- great season!

Eric Lauer -- meh season

Marcus Stroman -- great season!

Trevor Richards -- meh season

 

2018:

Jacob deGrom -- great season!

Lance Lynn -- meh season

Luke Weaver -- bad season

Jakob Junis -- meh season

 

2017:

Dylan Unsworth -- did not pitch in the majors?

Masahiro Tanaka -- meh season

Felix Hernandez -- meh season

Clayton Kershaw -- great season!

 

This is by no means scientific, and league WHIP has dropped and K's have spiked the past couple years, so it gets harder to find comps the further you go back.

 

But it seems pretty clear that the sample is too small to warrant reading too much into Dobnak's spring line so far.

[Rosterman]

I'm thinking Happ might open the season on the DL, using his late start from COVID as an excuse, buying the Twins a couple of starts for Dobnak. Waiting to see. Rumor also ahs Colina going on the 60-day (which is whyy he hasn't been optioned to the minors yet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I could see the Twins putting Happ on the 10 day DL due to need to ramp up from COVID, that would let Dobnak start a couple of times before Happ is ready, otherwise Dobnak will probably be mopping up the bad Happ starts.

 

 

I'm thinking Happ might open the season on the DL, using his late start from COVID as an excuse, buying the Twins a couple of starts for Dobnak. Waiting to see.

 

Happ to the IL wouldn't make much sense, as he wouldn't be able to ramp up in a rehab assignment -- just simulated games.

 

They've already announced Dobnak is starting the year in the bullpen, so unless some new injury/condition develops with Happ, he's not going to the IL. The Twins have a large staff with enough flexibility that they don't need Happ to throw more than 75 pitches his first time out anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Rumor also ahs Colina going on the 60-day (which is whyy he hasn't been optioned to the minors yet.

You can't option injured players, so it's just a question of whether Colina is healthy enough to option (unlikely at this point) or he goes on the MLB 10-day or 60-day IL.

 

I expect Colina will go to the MLB 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot for Law. Then if Colina is ready to pitch before the 60th day of the MLB season (but after the minor league season starts in early May), he can simply be sent to AAA on a rehab assignment until he is healthy enough to option.

[Trov]

In a 162 game season no team ever uses just 5 starting pitchers.  Many times teams will use at least 8 or more.  Having depth is important.  I have no issue with Dobnak not starting, but if he pitches well out of pen and either Happ or Shoemaker struggle out of the gate, I just hope Dobnak gets a chance.  I do not think the team will hesitate to make a move, but in old days Gardy and company would keep running the same guys out there because they were our rotation. 

[ScrapTheNickname]

Interesting article and interesting comments. As a casual fan, I will wait and see how Dobnak performs in 2021. He pretty much bummed me out last year. He lost his spot in the rotation. Is the new pitch a winner? I'll wait and see. Because I'm a casual fan.